Watchhttp://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/226943-poll-romney-opens-up-big-lead-nationally
Mitt Romney has opened up 7 percent lead over President Obama nationally, according to the latest survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen.
Romney took 50 percent of the vote against Obama’s 43. It’s the first time Romney has hit 50 percent in the poll and is his largest lead over the president to date.
The disappointing jobs data released last week could be weighing the president down. Rasmussen found that only 38 percent of those polled said they approved of the president’s handling of the economy, versus 48 that disapproved.
Still, the poll could be an outlier, as most polls show a considerably tighter race. According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney holds only a 1 percent lead over Obama, while the president holds a one-point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
The RCP average includes Romney’s seven-point Rasmussen lead, as well as a few other potential outliers, including an Associated Press poll that shows Obama up by eight and a Reuters poll that shows Obama up by seven — both of which were released this week.
The Rasmussen daily tracking poll of 500 likely voters has a 3 percent margin of error.
Him draw bad card...
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CaptainShuddup says
Saying that a successful businessman didn't build the roads/bridges/infrastructure on which he depends isn't a parable, it's an observation. You might want to look up that word.
http://youtu.be/G2y8Sx4B2Sk
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bdrasin - that doesn't change anything. What he said was what he meant...if you got a business you didn't build that, someone else made that happen. Its all collective, liberal, commie hogwash.
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Honest Abe says
Got it. If you built a business, it means that you also built all of the infrastructure which helped made your success possible, presumably through time travel. Anyone who doesn't believe that is a communist. Makes perfect sense.
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If you think Romney will win you should open an account here:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm
You can get a good deal. Here is the graph showing price history. Obama has been favored all along, but his chances have gone up since SCOTUS ruled on "Obamacare." Obama now looks the best he has looked since ROmney secured the nomination. Seriously open an account. It looks like Romney is close to .40 (worth $1.00 if Romney wins).
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm
Money doesn't talk. It screams.
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Also,...haha,....let's see what that graph looks like after the debates.
Really, and I do mean this as serious advice. If you want to bet on Romney, and get good odds. Open an IEM account, and buy one third of your position right after each debate.
But 1.5 to 1 odds you can get right now looks pretty good, if you want to believe the polls.
Invest 500, and get back 750 (plus your 500) if Romney wins.
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robertoaribas's website
I would save quite a bit of money, if Rmoney wins. I now have 11 homes, soon to be 14, and his business tax ideas are much more friendly to someone like me, then Obama's.
BUT, I got here, because education was reasonably priced, and between financial aid and work, plus scholarships, I was able to go to college and graduate school. I want a world where others have the opportunities I had, not what the US is becoming: A country like Brazil, where if you aren't born into a wealthy family, you can never achieve anything.
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Here I found a bigger "book" on the election.
http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp
They have it about the same or Obama only slightly less favored but presumably you could put on a big bet at these price.
In other words at a casino now you could bet 100 on Romney, and get back 140 (plus your 100), if Romney wins.
If you want to bet on Obama you have to bet 170, to get back 100 (plus your 170).
Why are those numbers different ? 140 versus 170 ? That's because of the book makers edge (profit). Split the difference and it's 155 (equivalent to about .39 on the IEM), even better than the current price on IEM.
If I didn't know better, I would think that Rasmussen might be trying to pull a Barclays Libor move and get people to bet on Romney. Just kidding (I put this line to help Thomas.wong understand the libor scandal).
What if the Casinos have taken too many bets globally with people betting on ROmney at these great odds ? It sure would relieve some of the pressure if Romney odds would improve at least for a while and they could lay off their risk with some cheaper bets on Obama. Then again, maybe the only reason odds are so good for Romney (for betting on Romney that is (odds against his winning)) is that too many people are betting on Obama.
What if it's the billionares hedging. If the rich benefit as much as some think with a Romney win, shouldn't they be placing huge bets on Obama, to hedge ? MAybe that's the reason Obama is so far ahead with the money. The billionaires hedge.
There's the reason for the BS polls. Billionaires are trying to swing "the market" to where they can put on their billionaires hedge bets at better prices.
Stupid money....or is it ?
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bdrasin says
meanwhile further south down in the South Bay, it was the industries build by successful business and industry, which in turn created jobs and paid income taxes, federal state, sales and property and other tax which DID build the roads, infrastructure and hope for a better life fro many.
Else we would still be farm lands... no different than Morgan Hill and Gilroy!
We had the Ubber SF and East Bay created decades earlier than Santa Clara, but the govt mismanagement has left it a former shadow of itself. All the Big City govt wanted was more taxes and spending programs ... leaving a anti-business decaying economy!
The Govts in SCC learned to stay out of the way of industries.. and the pay off worked.
The stark difference between the Big Govt cities of SF-Oakland and the Growth Magnet of Santa Clara County.. is a good example of what can be done...
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robertoaribas says
I agree that's where the right wants to take us. Not that it's impossible for the truly gifted, but in the future we are headed toward, social mobility will be MUCH tougher. It will be much more difficult to even identify extremely gifted children, if they are poor.
We are already way down the list on social mobility compared to many countries, including a couple where a complete education is free.
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thomaswong.1986 says
OK, at least your making a real argument rather than pretending that Obama said that business owners didn't create their own businesses - which he did not, and its obvious that he did not. You would have to be a liar to claim that he did.
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I exaggererated the price for Romney based on the graph. Here is the current "market."
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html
You would have to pay .431 if you put in a market order to buy Romney now. And who knows how many shares are offered at that price.
As I said, if you want to bet on Romney, open an account, and buy Romney right after each debate.
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Politicizing the roads on which commerce was built, when that's why there were built in the first place, is just pandering and grandstanding Bull Shit nothing else.
But claiming that successful people didn't build their business on their own, with out the help of roads, in which they somehow owe Obama some part of his Grand scheme. Is telling stories.
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CaptainShuddup says
Amen. Lord Romney and LDS Kingdom forever!
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More like delusional. That straight A student didn't do it on his own, someone else made that happen.
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I only wish there were more difference between these two candidates. Supreme Court picks, sure. Some rights for some long-underserved groups, maybe.
But in large part, the empire rolls on. Google "lily pad bases" if you don't believe it.
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No.
To normal people it's all about jobs, cost of living, and purchasing power.
Everything else is just noise.
iwog says
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yeah, well your medical premiums are, as well as your deductibles...
The effect is the same as a tax increase.
iwog says
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That's right. the tree chopper for paper....the BerryGatherer for ink...OfficeDepot for school desks...etc...etc...blah blah blah....
the little fucker would not have crawled out of his shit filled diapers iffen it wasn't for 3/4 of mankind...
Honest Abe says
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Love how some folks get all jazzed up about Obama vs. Romney, Repubs vs. Dems. It's all just a grand show for mass consumption with the ruling elite winning regardless of who wins the "election." Sorry, what you think is a choice is really a non-choice. American Democracy: RIP.
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CaptainShuddup says
Pathetic that you don't understand the point. Actually you must understand it.
There was a time when decent Americans were willing to pay their fair share of taxes. And the truth is that that message, which has been Elizabeth Warren's message too is a message that makes a lot of sense, and most moderate normal Americans (who haven't bought the propaganda) agree with it.
Wtf ? People want so much from the government and they aren't willing to pay for it.
And now they say the answer is privatizing schools and generally paying public workers less.
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marcus says
NO You don't understand the insult that is and the slap in the face of every hard working son of a bitch that ever made something of them selves and a better future for their kids.
Marcus your parents are more responsible for your success, like your education, your career, and the values and ethics you have not Obama.
You should have greater self esteem, don't let the bastard get you down.
Fuck Elizabeth too, she can make a Tee Pee in her living room and play cow boy and Indians in her make believe fantasy world she lives in.
But she probably wouldn't follow through with that either.
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iwog says
I think you need to read the fine print. If you have a HSA they are going up since they are reducing the amount that you can put in it as part of the "Affordable" Health Care act.
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CaptainShuddup says
President Obama actually said
How anyone can say this is an insult to anyone is totally beyond me. Its a brilliant clip from a psychological standpoint because it goes straight to the paranoid republican id ("he hates success!") But the whole quote makes it clear that this is not the case.
Whats even more galling is that Obama was clearly trying to show people how we have a common purpose and are to a great extent all in this together and need to help each other. And it was deceptively edited to sound like he was being divisive.
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Well let's just say Obama is no Fucking John Kennedy, I think we can put that misnomer to bed once and for all right now.
There was always only one way to interpret Kenedy's speeches.
Of course Obama meant it as the Rich and Successful owe HIM something.
That speech was in the height of the OWS movement. There's only one way to interpret it, and that's what he meant by it. If you want to spin it, and make excuses for his misspoken words, be my guest. But I'm not listening to you, you don't have a pen with the official presidential seal on it either.
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Every speech Obama does is to divide the country. His speeches always have an "Us against them" under tone and theme. He starts every speech with "The mess he inherited".
President Romney wont engage in such skulduggery.
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CaptainShuddup says
Yeah, it's terrible the way he's playing his cards, and that he wants to be reelected, the way he talks truthfully about the differences between what people get with him versus Romney.
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Yeah well all I can say, "Thank God the majority of American's have been told to ignore what goes on in Washington" so they do.
They will be voting in November based on how their lives are effected by the policy at hand. Not by what the Geeks under the Freak show tent on Capitol hill are doing, or not doing as it were.
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xrpb11a says
My insurance premiums go up every year by double digits and have for over a decade. Every......single......year.
Do you know what I'd say if my insurance premiums only went up 10% this year? I'd say "wonderful!"
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CaptainShuddup says
Yeah right, that "divide" exacerbated itself with Sarah Impaled's comments about "real americans." If that's not divisive, I don't know what is. At no point during any of Barack's speeches did I feel any divisiveness at all.
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iwog says
The insurance industry functions like a MS13 gang - gotta pay "la renta."
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Honest Abe says
I agree that the student is the one who earned their success.
But if the students was poor, thank goodness there were good public schools where his or her gifts could take root where he or she could get the support they deserve.
(yeah, yeah, I know...public schools aren't all good. True. All private schools aren't good either. It is very tough in some neighborhoods for a public school to work miracles. They take everyone that the private schools don't get. But even there, in those worst neighborhoods, a lot of children in unfortunate situations are given opportunities that they deserve and that they ( yes THEY) take advantage of, at least sometimes.
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Not only premiums, but deductibles and coverage terms.
I have had a blue shield HSA for my employees since 2008..$2500 single/ $5000 family deductible, $7000 max per year out of pocket...with the family plan any family member over 2500, the deductible kicked in for that member...
this year it got jacked up 20% AND
now it is $ 3500 single/ $7000 family deductible, $ 9000 max per year out of pocket...and with the family deductible everyone in the family gets grouped together, and as a unit they must reach 7K before the copay kicks in...
Just "Wonderful", isn't it....
iwog says
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Damn! The trolls almost brought me down to their level made me respond.
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Clinton, MA
Amazing how a little bit of misdirection can send a discussion thread careening around like the (late) Ted Kennedy behind the wheel of a car.
On Thursday July 19, the good Captain posts a blog entry from May 11, citing it as "proof" that Romney is winning and will win
The source for this claim is from the Rasmussen organization, based upon their polling data. Only one problem: Rasmussen, as of July 20, now has Obama in the lead in the popular vote, based upon their, ummm, shall we say, slightly more recent polling data:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Indeed, since the information at that link changes daily, it is (until the next update) what you see when you follow the link provided at the blog entry to Rasmussen. Ciggy man Obama (wonder what his brand of choice is?) ahead. Holy Underwear dude trailing.
In any event, presuming Rasmussen as a reliable source, what we've seen is Holy Underwear dude dropping in the polls (by 4%) and Ciggy man Obama rising (by 4%). From May 11 to July 19. If the trend is your friend, it sure looks like Romney is losing ground and Obama is gaining it. And this, please note, is using nothing but the same source as the good Captain.
Inquiring minds are curious why a May blog entry is being posted on July 19th. Excessive sugar consumption, perhaps? An inability to read the calendar? Something else? I did accuse the Captain of "misdirection" at the start of my post. But perhaps that is unfair. I await an explanation of the three month disconnect with greatest curiosity. And if the Captain needs help with figuring which month follows which month, I will be happy to tutor him, free of charge.
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So has Mittens done enough good deeds to get his own planet?
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Elwood just layeth the smack down.
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ATK's website
Obama had a real chance to go to bat for the American people but didn't. I also think he will be re-elected.
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