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Practical advice for today’s prospective homebuyers
By golfplan18 Follow Fri, 20 Jul 2012, 6:52am 1,099 views 18 comments
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Oil Can's website
Don't buy! Wait for 8% mortgages to come back.
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Wait until we pass Peak Oil.
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Oil Can says
Realistically speaking this is the best advice. Although I think 6% to 8% is a normal range in a healthy market.
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I tell buyers that they need to make their decision assuming that, ten years from now, their home is worth no more than what they paid for it. If, knowing that, they would still buy, then go ahead.
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gregpfielding says
Greg,
That's pretty conservative. I'm willing to bet that home prices will be higher in nominal price 10 years from now. :)
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golfplan18 says
You did? How's that working for you so far? Come on, be honest. :)
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FortWayne says
I'm sorry, but that's the worse advice I've heard in awhile. You might never see 8% mortgages again in your lifetime although I welcome it because it would make me a very wealthy man, or not. :)
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E-man says
It is conservative. And a reasonable worst-case scenario.
Importantly, I think it really makes people think hard about how good of a fit the property is for them and about how much "making money" is a part of their consideration.
For example, a young couple wanting to start a family is probably better off waiting, saving, and buying a 3-bedroom home in a year or two then a 2-bedroom condo today.
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FortWayne says
I think 6% to 8% is a good range.
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gregpfielding says
hmm
i should have read this comment last year
i bought a condo last sept since we had our first kid
i hope to move up to a family home in a couple of years..what are my chances? using heloc as downpayment for a family home
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Repubthug says
Good luck thug. Part of the problem you'll face is that selling, buying, and moving costs eat up a good 8-10% of any price appreciation you might have in your condo.
Home prices could move up or down over the next few years, depending mostly on housing supply. You may end up being stuck in a few years if supply begins to build again.
Point is, if you really want a house, I would get out of the condo as soon as you feel like you can make the move. No point in waiting for a better time. And by waiting you run the risk of being trapped. If you can find a way to move up, I say do it.
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E-man says
Inflation don't make people wealthy. Return above inflation do.
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"For example, a young couple wanting to start a family is probably better off waiting, saving, and buying a 3-bedroom home in a year or two then a 2-bedroom condo today."
Greg,
I would advise them to consider buying the 2-bedroom condo if it can cashflow positive with 3.5% down, but then I'm not familiar with the market in your neck of the woods. However, not everyone is cut out to be a landlord so it's a case by case basis. ;)
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Repubthug says
Thug,
Meriwest Credit Union is currently offering HELOC for 1.99% with interest only payment. Borrowing $100k and your monthly payment is only about $166/month. Unless you paid cash for your condo, I don't see $100k in HELOC. :0)
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REpro says
Of course inflation doesn't make people wealthy, but it would make RE investors, who locked in 4.5%-5% fixed interest rate, very happy. :0)
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E-man says
Personally I prefer 5/1 or 7/1 ARM. Equity is faster build-up and higher cash flow for today. If inflation comes, will be breeze to ref. cash-out or pay off loan.
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REpro says
Can't really argue with your strategy there. I've been giving a lot of thoughts to using 5/1 ARM on a couple of properties that I'm going to refinance soon. :)