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Where is that Tsunami of foreclosures?


By robertoaribas   Follow   Sun, 22 Jul 2012, 8:47pm   10,072 views   91 comments
In Scottsdale AZ 85250   Watch (3)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (3)  

Every post made on Patrick.net showing market improvement gets the same retort:

"banks where holding back on foreclosures due to robosigning scandal. Now, they are starting up and will shortly crush the market"

Ok, let's see what has happened in the past 30 days, at least for the Phoenix market.

Notice of trustee sale (90 days before a foreclosure) 3700
trustee sales (basically, foreclosures in a non judicial state) 1900
Canceled notice of trustee sales 2300.

So, we end the month with 500 LESS homes in foreclosure than we started. there were about 20,000 in the pipeline at the beginning of the month, so instead of ramping up, they are actually shrinking? [even in the best of times, there are always a few thousand homes under the threat of foreclosure, at the current pace in a year and half or so, we'd be back to a market with normal foreclosure rates...]

Anyways, zero evidence for this coming tsunami of foreclosures, to this very day!

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  1. sheltielover1


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    12   6:51am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    We bought a fixer in February in Danville and already have 20% equity! No more PMI for us! Sweat equity and patience paid off! Now our house payment is lower than rent!

    Keep dreaming, you cool-aid drinker. It's more like you have -20% equity.

    I was a very active member of the Housing Bubble Blog for years and rented for almost 9 years.. I AM FAR from a koolaide drinker! Even fellow followers of the blog have seen my house and think we did the right thing.. Why do you have to tear people down and criticize? Be happy for once!

  2. dunnross


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    13   6:53am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Protected  

    sheltielover1 says

    No worries over a crappy landlord or having a place to live.

    Yes, no worry about a crappy landlord. But you have to worry about a crappy boss who will fire your ass, and you will be back to renting faster than I can say "Negative Equity"!

  3. freak80


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    14   6:55am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    With more than half of mortgage holders in phoenix already under water, you don't need to buy, in order to squat. Just stop paying mortgage, that's all.

    Fair enough. But if the banks don't seem to mind people squatting, why would those houses ever hit the market?

  4. dunnross


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    15   6:57am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected  

    sheltielover1 says

    I was a very active member of the Housing Bubble Blog for years and rented for almost 9 years.. I AM FAR from a koolaide drinker!

    Remember, the goal of the bubble is to pull in as many people in, as possible, both before and after it pops. If houses just kept on dropping in price, people would stay away, and nobody would be suckered in. So, that's why you have these, dead-cat bounces on the way down. You are just one of those cool-aid drinkers, who got sucked in on the way down, instead of way up. There is absolutely no difference, between a knife catcher, like you, and somebody who took the plunge back in 2006.

  5. freak80


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    16   7:01am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    Remember, the goal of the bubble is to pull in as many people in, as possible, both before and after it pops.

    Are you suggesting the bubble was somehow "engineered"?

    As they say, never attribute to malice which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

  6. sheltielover1


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    17   7:02am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    No worries over a crappy landlord or having a place to live.

    Yes, no worry about a crappy landlord. But you have to worry about a crappy boss who will fire your ass, and you will be back to renting faster than I can say "Negative Equity"!

    Luckily I am a highly educated and credentialed IT worker who has skills which are in high demand. I do not think finding a new job would be a problem for me.. In fact I'd probably get a $20 - $30k raise leaving my current job...

  7. sheltielover1


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    18   7:04am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    I was a very active member of the Housing Bubble Blog for years and rented for almost 9 years.. I AM FAR from a koolaide drinker!

    Remember, the goal of the bubble is to pull in as many people in, as possible, both before and after it pops. If houses just kept on dropping in price, people would stay away, and nobody would be suckered in. So, that's why you have these, dead-cat bounces on the way down. You are just one of those cool-aid drinkers, who got sucked in on the way down, instead of way up. There is absolutely no difference, between a knife catcher, like you, and somebody who took the plunge back in 2006.

    So you're saying rents are going to plunge as well?? I think not.. I have a fixed 30 year mortgage we will pay off in 10 years and I don't think of a house as an "investment." It is a place to live.. I am happy... Payment is cheaper than rent and a much nicer house in a great area...

  8. dunnross


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    19   7:08am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Fair enough. But if the banks don't seem to mind people squatting, why would those houses ever hit the market?

    You're making a big assumption there, that banks like to be in the 0 revenue landlording business. But reality is quite opposite of perception. Banks are not landlords, and houses are hitting the market, eventually. The average time for squatting is about 15 months in California (more in judicial states). You see, squatting deadbeats are costing these banks lots of money, because they are not just paying the mortgage, they are not paying their taxes, either, and the longer they squat, the larger is the tax liability for the bank. Furthermore, squatting deadbeats are not very handy around the house, and they let these houses deteriorate. So, the houses are just sitting there, losing value, losing equity, and banks are just going to let this happen, in front of their eyes. Is that what you think?

  9. dunnross


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    20   7:12am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    sheltielover1 says

    In fact I'd probably get a $20 - $30k raise leaving my current job...

    Yes, just like you already have 20% equity in your house, which you bought in February. Heck, if making money was so easy as you think it is, maybe we should all, just quit our jobs, and start flipping houses for a living. Wait, that already happened, and most of those flippers got burned. Oh, sorry, I got carried away with all that "positive attitude" aura which seems to be contagious on this blog.

  10. dunnross


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    21   7:14am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Are you suggesting the bubble was somehow "engineered"?

    Yes, the bubble was engineered by the FED, wouldn't you say so? Most bubbles are engineered because they don't naturally happen. Problem, is, most people lose money on bubbles.

  11. dunnross


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    22   7:18am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    sheltielover1 says

    So you're saying rents are going to plunge as well??

    Yes, that's exactly what I am saying. It happened before, even in the Bay Area, and it will happen again. As it is, already, you can't find any nice places in the Bay Area right now, where mortgage is lower than rent, and if you think you can, you are fooling yourself.

  12. dunnross


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    23   7:22am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Fair enough. But if the banks don't seem to mind people squatting, why would those houses ever hit the market?

    The only way banks would not sell these houses, is if they really thought that prices were going to go up, in the future. But, reality is, prices are dropping, and, soon, will be dropping even faster.

  13. Mikhail


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    There IS a massive inventory of delinquent mortgages. However, lenders have very little reason to bring them to market, so they just let the existing deadbeat owners continue living in them indefinitely.

    The simple fact is that banks will drag their feet on foreclosure almost indefinitely if the home is under-water. The greater the negative equity the less willing the lender will be to foreclose.

    To put it another way, it is better for banks to let deadbeats slide and keep the mortgage on the books at an unrealistic valuation rather than start foreclosure proceedings and have to book a loss. Most banks are so capital impaired that recognizing the losses these delinquent mortgages represent would make them insolvent (i.e. bankrupt). When the choice comes down to going out of business or letting deadbeats squat in homes the bankers will ALWAYS choose stay in business (and keep those bonuses coming).

    The implication is that we are going to be facing a situation with undercapitalized banks with hidden mine-fields on their balance sheets for 10 or 20 years, as the system slowly works off the bad debt.

    No one should expect any kind of "Tsunami" of foreclosures. It is in NO ONE'S interest to see a flood of foreclosures hit the market, so we won't.

    The regulators will NEVER pass rules forcing true accounting valuations (which would force half the US lenders into insolvency), and the banks certainly aren't going to voluntarily admit the truth (i.e. by writing down bad debt). The result is a LONG period of a zombified economy with banks, businesses, and borrowers who look like the real thing but are really dead and rotting on the inside.

    Ironically, this whole phenomena of zombie banks and companies is EXACTLY what has been playing out in Japan for the last 22 years. Japanese banks and regulators refused to write down bad debt too, and just look where that's led them.

  14. freak80


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    25   8:21am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    ATK says

    however I am sure bank savings interest rates and CD's will still drop from 0.nothing% to 0.even-more-nothing%

    Which is a real interest rate of about negative 2.5%, thanks to inflation.

  15. bmwman91


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    26   8:21am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The ONE thing, at least in CA, limiting squatters is adverse possession laws. If banks let it go for 5+ years and the squatters paid all the bills and taxes, the squatters fully own the hose and the bank loses any stake in it. I would be VERY surprised if banks let that happen to even a single house. Maybe they have worked out some strategy to mitigate this with the slowest possible trickle of foreclosure activity, I don't know. Maybe they are just getting ready to sell all of the properties to institutional investors instead.

  16. freak80


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    27   8:28am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Mikhail says

    Ironically, this whole phenomena of zombie banks and companies is EXACTLY what has been playing out in Japan for the last 22 years. Japanese banks and regulators refused to write down bad debt too, and just look where that's led them.

    Sick isn't it? Our futures have been stolen from us. Then again, it's our fault we elect politicians that promise us a "free lunch"...even though that's a violiation of the First Law of economics.

    Just think what the unintended consequences of ObamaCare will be.

  17. Tim Aurora


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    28   8:34am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Limited Recovery is taking place. Here in Johns Creek Georgia, the prices never plunged more than 20% and now with the foreclosures out of the way we are recovering nicely. Prices have inched up. In my subdivision they are around 5-10% recovered( so we are only 10-15% below the peak now)

    Tim

  18. dunnross


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    29   8:42am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Mikhail says

    However, lenders have very little reason to bring them to market, so they just let the existing deadbeat owners continue living in them indefinitely.

    But nobody is living indefinitely. Banks do foreclose, soon or later.

  19. dunnross


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    30   8:45am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Tim Aurora says

    Limited Recovery is taking place. Here in Johns Creek Georgia, the prices never plunged more than 20% and now with the foreclosures out of the way we are recovering nicely.

    Here, in the Bay Area, the annual spring dead-cat bounce is definitely over. Asking prices have started heading down, and selling price are soon to follow.

  20. robertoaribas


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    31   8:59am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    dunnross says

    This squatting inventory is many times bigger than the 20,000 that the realtard alleges,

    Here is the thing, I prefer to make my investment decisions based on measurable facts, not conjectures some dips**t pulls out of thin air. Data on bank delinquincies for 30/60/90 day late on mortgages have been improving for the past year, countering your made up theory. dunnross says

    Yes, the bubble was engineered by the FED, wouldn't you say so? Most bubbles are engineered because they don't naturally happen.

    I guess you are on a mission to prove once and for all, that you truly know nothing and are too lazy to ever look up or learn anything....

    Care to educate us on who engineered:
    1. the tulip bubble?
    2. south sea trading company bubble?
    3. nifty fifty stock bubble?
    4. arabian horse bubble?
    5. 90's real estate bubble in california?
    etc?

    Of course not, because there never is/never has been a nefarious force secretly organizing bubbles.

    There is another way to live: you could study and research things, instead of making them up!
    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    We bought a fixer in February in Danville and already have 20% equity! No more PMI for us! Sweat equity and patience paid off! Now our house payment is lower than rent!

    Keep dreaming, you cool-aid drinker. It's more like you have -20% equity.

    hmmm, so you know more about the home value that you don't even know the address of, than the owner? do you have ESP? The quote actually shows what you are: bitter and pissed off, because you screwed up in your timing!

  21. Elwood P Dowd


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    32   9:01am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    So, we end the month with 500 LESS homes in foreclosure than we started. there were about 20,000 in the pipeline at the beginning of the month, so instead of ramping up, they are actually shrinking? [even in the best of times, there are always a few thousand homes under the threat of foreclosure, at the current pace in a year and half or so, we'd be back to a market with normal foreclosure rates...]

    I can sort of see the logic behind the "Mark to Model" valuation scheme, since houses are not assets you sell like cans of soda. (The assumptions used by banks to derive the valuations they come up with are a different kettle of fish. I don't even think they're fully disclosed, but I could be wrong.)

    But wouldn't it be nice if somewhere in the 50,000 pages of crap in today's 10-Ks and annual reports there was a requirement that banks at least take a crack at a "Mark to Market" figure in the Notes to the financials?

    Anyhow, if we had numbers like that maybe we could get a feel for things. Personally, I think it would be pretty awful, but you must think differently, I guess, that the writedowns banks have already taken have left the real estate on their books at something close to fair value. Is that a reasonable take on your views?

    But, what I'm really curious about is why you think it is reasonable to assume that the data for one month can be extrapolated out to each month for the next 18 months? That I'm mystified over. Can you explain how you arrived at such a conclusion? Thanks.

  22. FortWayne


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    33   9:12am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (6)   Dislike  

    I don't know about Phoenix. But when I see someone who is making 30,000 to 40,000 a year think their old rotting shack is worth 449,000 or more, while in an area where family incomes are not breaking 40,000/year. I'm pretty sure it's a crash waiting to happen.

  23. robertoaribas


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    34   9:12am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Elwood P Dowd says

    But, what I'm really curious about is why you think it is reasonable to assume that the data for one month can be extrapolated out to each month for the next 18 months? That I'm mystified over. Can you explain how you arrived at such a conclusion? Thanks.

    I don't assume that will happen. Merely making the point that if a tsunami of foreclosures were coming, this data would be the first warning, several months beforehand, and it is in fact moving the wrong way! 2 years ago, Phoenix had over 50,000 homes in the foreclosure pipeline, and we were selling about 4000 a month. Today, we have 20,000 in the pipeline, and we are selling 8000 a month. Really, except for making up "bad stuff that nobody knows about is about to happen" replies, where is a single fact or piece of data to hand a downward prediction on?

  24. dunnross


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    35   9:17am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (4)   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    bitter and pissed off, because you screwed up in your timing!

    No, I think your mother screwed up in her timing.

  25. freak80


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    36   9:20am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Dunross seems to be arguing that a forclosure tsunami is coming because:

    1) Banks DON'T want to put houses on the market (because then they would lose money)

    2) Banks DO want to put houses on the market (because otherwise they would lose money)

    Needless to say, I don't follow the argument...

  26. dunnross


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    37   9:23am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Dunross seems to be arguing that a forclosure tsunami is coming because:

    I never said that a tsunami of houses on the MLS is coming. I simply said that the shadow inventory is growing, not shrinking, like the realtard tries you to believe. The tsunami is in the shadow, not out in the open, but this shadow is what is going to keep the prices going down for decades.

  27. freak80


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    38   9:23am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    No, I think your mother screwed up in her timing.

    My goodness. How does speculation on future price movements become personal? Wall Street guys might be ruthless scumbags but they probably don't have time to engage in personal attacks with other speculators. They place their bets on computer screens and let the chips fall where they may.

    Bulls: place your bets
    Bears: place your bets

    Only time will tell who is correct.

  28. freak80


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    39   9:26am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    I simply said that the shadow inventory is growing, not shrinking, like the realtard tries you to believe. The tsunami is in the shadow, not out in the open, but this shadow is what is going to keep the prices going down for decades.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to defend Realtors and their shenanigans. But how do you know the shadow inventory is growing? Is there evidence/data to show this?

  29. dunnross


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    40   9:47am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    But how do you know the shadow inventory is growing? Is there evidence/data to show this?

    Let me ask you this question: if you see more cars coming into the tunnel, but less cars coming out, do you actually have to walk into the tunnel to say that the number of cars in the tunnel is piling up? No, you don't, because, unlike our friend, the wannabe mathematician, you have grasped the basic concept of queuing theory.

  30. John Bailo


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    41   9:52am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    So you're saying rents are going to plunge as well??

    Yes, that's exactly what I am saying. It happened before, even in the Bay Area, and it will happen again. As it is, already, you can't find any nice places in the Bay Area right now, where mortgage is lower than rent, and if you think you can, you are fooling yourself.

    When I read real estate blogs about cities, many say they cannot find nice places or that the market is full of junk.

    Well guess what..these are the same crappy 100 year old moldy houses that you used to think were "classic" and a steal because they are going up in value.

    Back in the 60s people were fleeing this old housing stock for rational reasons...high crime, no parking, decrepit buildings, lack of kids space...

    Then somehow the urbist convinced us that this crap was worth it because you get to ride light rail!

    Now the sleep falls from your eyes and you're seeing cities as the cramped hellholes our parents fled..for just cause!!

  31. Patrick


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    42   9:54am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    I've heard that the SF light rail is significantly slower than the old street cars of 100 years ago. That's not very good progress.

  32. dunnross


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    43   10:12am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Mark Hansen has a pretty good recount of the current status quo, and what's to come in the pipeline. In fact, Mark confirms exactly what I was trying to tell you people for over 4 months, now. Basically, the market has come to a halt. This is a very very sick market, and the shadow inventory is going to continue to bloat, prices will continue to sink, and housing recession is here to stay for a very long time:

    http://mhanson.com/archives/839

  33. freak80


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    44   10:23am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    Let me ask you this question: if you see more cars coming into the tunnel, but less cars coming out, do you actually have to walk into the tunnel to say that the number of cars in the tunnel is piling up?

    No. In fluid dynamics, they call that the Continuity Equation.

    Do you have data that shows there are more houses being sold than bought or something?

  34. freak80


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    45   10:25am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    John Bailo says

    Then somehow the urbist convinced us that this crap was worth it because you get to ride light rail!
    Now the sleep falls from your eyes and you're seeing cities as the cramped hellholes our parents fled..for just cause!!

    Are you talking about Portland, OR?

  35. freak80


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    46   10:26am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Patrick says

    I've heard that the SF light rail is significantly slower than the old street cars of 100 years ago. That's not very good progress.

    That's because there were fewer lawyers 100 years ago. ;-)

  36. David9


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    47   10:40am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    One example from the street here in LA, I just met someone who bought a condo in West Hollywood, a prime bubble area in 2005 for 750K, it's now worth 400K at best.

    He would squat, but the HOA kicked him out.

    This was over two years ago, the condo is still vacant, the foreclosure process is still going on, and it is not on the market.

  37. dunnross


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    48   10:45am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Do you have data that shows there are more houses being sold than bought or something?

    Roberto the realtard, himself, showed you how NOTs have come down from 10,000 to 3,000 in Phoenix. This is a huge, huge drop in your fluid outflow. You can also see the graph, here:

    http://margesellshorseproperty.com/channels/regional_localism/topics/maricopa_county_az_decreasing_trustee_sales

    However, NOD data is skillfully hidden from us, by the RE Cabal, but I will argue, that since, banks are letting people squat, and are not releasing the inventory, more and more people are starting to realize that squatting is a profitable proposition, which can only cause the NOD's to go up.

  38. sheltielover1


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    49   11:00am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    hmmm, so you know more about the home value that you don't even know the address of, than the owner? do you have ESP? The quote actually shows what you are: bitter and pissed off, because you screwed up in your timing!

    It's my house and I am NOT giving out the address! I'm very happy indeed and am laughing at most people on this board... I think prices will go down in the near future, but we were lucky in our purchase...

  39. dunnross


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    50   11:03am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    sheltielover1 says

    hmmm, so you know more about the home value that you don't even know the address of, than the owner?

    Well, I do know it's in the Bay Area. This tells me that it's either a sh*t hole in a ghetto with some positive cash flow, or it is much more expensive to buy than to rent.

  40. sheltielover1


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    51   11:06am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dunnross says

    sheltielover1 says

    hmmm, so you know more about the home value that you don't even know the address of, than the owner?

    Well, I do know it's in the Bay Area. This tells me that it's either a sh*t hole in a ghetto with some positive cash flow, or it is much more expensive to buy than to rent.

    You're a real idiot... It's a beautiful, large home in Danville. We got lucky.. Prices are a ripoff right now.. We could easily rent it for positive cash flow..

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