Patrick.net

Prime season existing-house sales plummet 6.9 percent in West

By golfplan18   Follow   Mon, 23 Jul 2012, 7:01am   1,275 views   26 comments
Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

http://ochousingnews.com/news/prime-season-existing-home-sales-plummet-6-9-percent-in-west

Viewing Comments 1-26 of 26     Last »     See most liked comments

1. golfplan18 Follow Befriend (2) 536 threads 114 comments Irvine, CA

   1   7:02am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike

2. Oil Can Follow Befriend 21 threads 131 comments Oil Can's website

   2   8:25am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Only ultra low saved this season from a total decline. It decline in real terms.

3. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   3   9:06am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   MANY buyers in Phoenix aren't buying, not because they don't want to, but rather because they can't find anything to buy. 1. Inventory is lower than anytime since 2005. 2. sellers, especially short sellers and bank owned, are preffering cash offers from investors like me. I personally know several frustrated regular home buyers, who have been actively trying to buy, but can't get a contract accepted. Arizona is only one state in "the west" of course, but anecdotally, others on patrick.net have posted the same frustration, so I wouldn't take this number at face value as a lack of demand. Supply in California is also very notably constrained.

4. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   4   9:15am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says MANY buyers in Phoenix aren't buying, not because they don't want to, but rather because they can't find anything to buy. If they can't find anything to buy, that means that price is still too high. That's exactly what a declining market looks like. Claiming that buyers may want or not want to buy houses is stupid, because there is always a demand for housing, but at the right price.

5. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   5   9:21am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   dunnross says If they can't find anything to buy, that means that price is still too high. That's exactly what a declining market looks like. Dunross, you really should learn how to read and think. Phoenix supply is EXTREMELY low. 13,500 homes for sale, but only 9000 that don't already have an offer or multiple offers on them. We sold 8000 last month, so there is barely over 1 months inventory for the entire metro. Under $250K price, it is even worse... Prices are up 20 to 30% based on whose data you use, even case-shiller which is lagging the current trends by several months is showing the increase, so for you to claim "that is what a declining market looks like..." really makes you, I don't know, what is a polite word for very clueless that wouldn't call you stupid? The buyers are being outbid, and that is why they aren't buying. hard to claim that is a harbinger of falling prices, but go own, its not like facts or logic stand in your way very often!

6. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   6   9:37am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Prices could be up 200% but if sales are actually languishing lower than 2011 levels (which were already anemic), it's very hard to call this a recovering market. I think "dysfunctional" fits.

7. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   7   9:50am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says I personally know several frustrated regular home buyers, who have been actively trying to buy, but can't get a contract accepted. or is it that they can't find a bank to loan em money to buy an overpriced wooden box?

8. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   8   9:57am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   bubblesitter says or is that they can't find a bank to loan em money to buy an overpriced wooden box? I explained this catch 22 in another thread. Dysfunction.

9. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   9   10:00am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says I explained this catch 22 in another thread. Dysfunction. I'll very much accept that the market is dysfunctional. however, when my purchases from 12 to 18 months ago now comp for 50% more, my only interest is how do I continue to profit from this dysfunction... Not to complain about it, nor claim that it doesn't exist!

10. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    10   10:46am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I agree it's hard to claim that the current market we have right now (low sales, low inventory) doesn't exist. The stats are agnostic, they are what they are. Why the current market exist, though, I feel is a valid debate/discussion.

11. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    11   10:51am Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have 2 properties that popped up on redfin about 90 days ago - both around 700K and were last sold in 2009 and 2010 respectively and both are struggling to get the price that was last paid for. I wouldn't care for golden properties of Phoenix,but there is downward pressure on prices here in north OC.

12. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    12   2:28pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Confirming that in the >$1.5mm range in Silicon Valley it's exceptionally difficult for "normal" buyers right now. We just bought back into the Valley and were surprised to find it much tougher than the "prime" Marin area we're leaving. Homes in the valley are going for all-cash, quick close deals and if you want to get in as an individual buyer you either have to be willing to competitively bid (which we refuse to do) or creatively structure yourself into a financing position where you can appear all-cash to the seller. For us, this meant levering other assets in order to bridge so we could offer all-cash on the purchase. Luckily, that still buys a discount purchase price and a longer, more reasonable close. But it doesn't discard the as-is or other annoying factors. I can also tell you that buying REO or short sales in either Marin, Santa Clara or San Mateo counties is illusion unless you're really really really willing to buy crap in a crap neighborhood with bad schools and busy streets. Otherwise, you're not going to get a chance at that inventory because it all goes to insiders who are paying all-cash and are doing so through investment-group LLCs. And just to inoculate the inevitable replies about me being a Realtwhore or shill: I created the Bubblizer model, contributed hundreds of bubble articles here and on other forms over the years, and have utilized a strategy which has produced consistent personal gains for the past 15 years, including through the bubble (which saw us sell in 2005 to rent until 2009 as a way to buy into Marin for ~30% less than the previous owner's 2002 purchase price). That said, bring it on so I can fill out my ignore list.

13. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    13   2:47pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Randy H says And just to inoculate the inevitable replies about me being a Realtwhore or shill: I created the Bubblizer model, contributed hundreds of bubble articles here and on other forms over the years, and have utilized a strategy which has produced consistent personal gains for the past 15 years, including through the bubble (which saw us sell in 2005 to rent until 2009 as a way to buy into Marin for ~30% less than the previous owner's 2002 purchase price) Randy: and since I am now considered the "buy now realtwhore" on here, perhaps you remember me from the 2005/2006 zillow days, when I posted all the bad news about housing, and took on all the Realtors with brainless buy now advice. The thing is, the market in Phoenix collapsed so hard, even further than I ever predicted, that the price/rent ratio literally screamed BUY BUY BUY... which I have done. I am closing on my 12th home tomorrow, most without mortgages, 3 with mortgages 50% of current rent...

14. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 816 threads 2,808 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    14   2:50pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says 1. Inventory is lower than anytime since 2005. 2. sellers, especially short sellers and bank owned, are preffering cash offers from investors like me. Be careful. The 1 percent are buying through hedge funds and they will undercut you on rent. I wrote something about this here: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-1-percent-is-buying-up-all-the-real-estate-beware-of-tom-lee-of-jpm-2012-5

15. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 816 threads 2,808 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    15   2:52pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   And I wrote a follow up here: http://www.businessinsider.com/well-now-we-know-the-next-wall-street-scam-with-real-estate-will-be-2012-6

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    16   2:54pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Be careful. The 1 percent are buying through hedge funds and they will undercut you on rent. I wrote something about this here: good luck! I am far more nimble both at the property management and the repairs than a wall street hedge fund!

17. Its always someone elses fault Follow Befriend 1 comments

    17   3:08pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   This photo encapsulates our culture of victimization perfectly. No one put a gun to the home buyer's head and said they had to buy a home. But of course, in the myopic world inhabited by liberal victims, personal responsibility is a job for a government agency. Of course, I never heard these same people complaining when they smugly talked about how their home valuations were going up and they just got a new HELOC to afford them the ability to purchase a new (insert favorite depreciating asset)...but of course, it's this same ideology that makes them think they are entitled to wealth and success - everyone is a winner!

18. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 772 comments Tarzana, CA

    18   3:15pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says I have 2 properties that popped up on redfin about 90 days ago - both around 700K and were last sold in 2009 and 2010 respectively and both are struggling to get the price that was last paid for. I wouldn't care for golden properties of Phoenix,but there is downward pressure on prices here in north OC. DO YOUR MATH I have seen this situation often in the San Fernando Valley and the Los Angeles / Hollywood / Mid Whilshire areas in the below 325K range. The sucker buyer rally of 2009 and around there are now trying to sell or already foreclosed, have also seen people trying to sell at 2003 prices or thereabouts, and people who bought at the peak willing to accept over 100K loss, doesn't excite me. Also, one property recently came up for 199K that I liked, had most of the features I wanted, top floor, a view of some kind, 2 parking spaces, 2 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms. But when I 'Did My Math', (And yes, checked Patricks' calculator which put the value at 217K) the payment of $907 + $380 HOA + $207 Property Tax = $1,494 a month outlay and the expected rent is $1,600 or a bit more, I'm like, big whoopdie Doo.

19. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    19   3:35pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   how the hell do you get a payment of 907 on a 199k place? put 20% down with sub 4% 30 year rates, your payment around 700... and 240 of that is principle... Not saying you should buy it, just curious...

20. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 772 comments Tarzana, CA

    20   3:47pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says 20% down I could but choose not too. 190K at 4% in a microsoft excel calculator.

21. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 816 threads 2,808 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    21   3:49pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says good luck! I am far more nimble both at the property management and the repairs than a wall street hedge fund! Fine, but when you are charging 1500 and they are charging 900 we will see how that works out. Just a heads up. I don't know how much they will be able to manipulate, but they manipulate everything else. I hope you aren't washed out by them.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    22   3:52pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says robertoaribas says good luck! I am far more nimble both at the property management and the repairs than a wall street hedge fund! Fine, but when you are charging 1500 and they are charging 900 we will see how that works out. Just a heads up. I don't know how much they will be able to manipulate, but they manipulate everything else. I hope you aren't washed out by them. yes, a wall street firm is going to buy home for more than i do, pay a managment company 10 to 15% a year, who will not care at all how much maintenance costs are, and beat me... good plan! I bought most of my properties cash, i'm fairly certain I can handle the competition without getting "washed out"... "just a heads up" I think the problem is what your head is up!

23. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 816 threads 2,808 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    23   3:58pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says yes, a wall street firm is going to buy home for more than i do, pay a managment company 10 to 15% a year, who will not care at all how much maintenance costs are, and beat me... good plan! You read the links in the article right? The 1 percent have declared war on regular investors. They buy them for less than you do. They buy them in bulk lots. I am not saying they are better managers than you. I am saying they have an advantage in other ways over you. Maybe that will be a problem and maybe not.

24. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 352 threads 965 comments

    24   4:14pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think I'll go in debt like so many individuals & investors because there isn't any chance of global recession or depression.

25. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    25   8:29pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Randy: and since I am now considered the "buy now realtwhore" on here, perhaps you remember me from the 2005/2006 zillow days, when I posted all the bad news about housing, and took on all the Realtors with brainless buy now advice. The thing is, the market in Phoenix collapsed so hard, even further than I ever predicted, that the price/rent ratio literally screamed BUY BUY BUY... which I have done. I am closing on my 12th home tomorrow, most without mortgages, 3 with mortgages 50% of current rent... I remember you well Rob. You and I were often the only rational people on Zillow in the early days too. People seem to think that some perfect buying opportunity will emerge at which point all the faithful will be awarded their gift from the gods themselves. Well, it doesn't work that way boys and girls.

26. mell Follow Befriend (5) 74 threads 1,400 comments Premium

    26   9:35pm Mon 23 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   If you already own a lot of properties and have good cash flow and you can just sell a couple if you get into a crunch, then you might be able to close some deals, either all-cash or at least with a decent down payment. The problem is that it is still a shitty time to buy for first timers who cannot afford to miss a mortgage payment or depreciation, because their wages do not support the debt burden and if they lose their job they will lose their house. At some point the couple percent will be shuffling the properties around themselves but will face dwindling rental income as the eroding middle-class becomes too poor to pay the demanded rental prices. Doesn't mean that there isn't a steal here and there if you have the cash, but compared to wages home prices are still overpriced.