WatchI like a good discussion. I research facts to back up my opinions, and make the best decisions I can as an investor based on these facts. Discussions with others with differing opinions is the most valuable, because their insights give me other aspects to look at, and sharpen my analysis.
But lately, everything I post on patrick.net is immediately replied to with personal insults by a jealous idiot named dunross. I call him an idiot, because rather than actually debate anything with facts he merely misdirects with insults. I post copious facts backing up my beliefs, and would welcome an informed debate with anyone providing other facts to think about, but that isn't what i get, instead:
1. I don't know what supply and demand is.
2. I don't have any education, I'm just a realtard. (not with standing my graduate work in mathematics at U. C. Berkeley, or nearing 2 decades as a math professor)
3. I'm a liar.
4. all sources of reference are lies...
In 2005, when I began speculating that real estate would take a big dive, and selling my investment properties, I found this site, patrick.net. It was a great place to bounce ideas off of others, and try to think what would happen. I also wrote my ideas on zillow.com, and was continuously attacked by others (often with the same emotional immaturity as this nitwit dunross) that prices could not, would not fall. They were just as bitter, probably because deep inside, they knew they were screwed and had screwed up... Now, ironically, I get the same attacks from the other direction...
My analysis has been and continuous to be based on mathematical reasoning. You can find it here,though I no longer have the zillow account. It is fairly thorough, and treats price/rent, supply versus demand, job trends, etc. to balance out all the factors one should consider:
http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread/When-to-buy-a-home-for-the-thinkers-in-the-room/46686/
It even links to why buying in a dropping market is a big risk, which might be a surprise to those who try to paint me in the 'always buy' camp.
I'm sure that what dunross is, is an engineer. He thinks he is smarter than everyone else, believes he should be rewarded for his brilliance with a 100K home in san francisco with an ocean view, and it hasn't happened. So, his god has let him down, and he has to lash out. [ I worked in engineering for five years, Hughes aircraft, followed by grumman aircraft, so I know the type... ]
The thing is, his constant personal attacks, and carte blanche statements reduce the value of this site to visitors. Nobody knows the future, but that doesn't mean that thinking about it, particularly fact based analysis, doesn't have merit.
Patrick started this site with as simple but prescient notion: prices were too high compared to incomes and rents... but it has turned into a religious forum for anti housing zealots, and that isn't really worth much to anyone who is looking for a discussion or hoping to learn about the likely future of the market.
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Roslyn, NY
dunnross says
I feel that robertoaribas has gotten extremely arrogant, obnoxious & very smug. I've been reading his posts lately & it really sounds like someone that needs some humble pie.
He wasn't this way before, I don't know what got to him but he should at least debate more respectfully in my humble opinion. It's not so much about him being a bull, it's more about him being so confrontional & hostile to any debate supporting bear ideology.
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The dude just bought his umpteenth house, and you guys are whooping and cheering that he should lose 99% of the value. That can hardly make for a tender campfire moment.
You would think, he would have gotten ONE congratulations by now.
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I think he is panic.
The US recession is unavoidable, and the interesting rate is at a record low for a good reason.
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Lafayette, CA
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xenogear3 says
The interesting rate can still go lower, and there's no such thing as panic when you're at positive cash flow and both rents and property costs are rising.
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Just wait banks convert all their houses into rent property.
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Santa Cruz, CA
Evidently the purpose of the blog is unknown to roberto.
The purpose is eyeballs looking at it, and people commenting.
As far as roberto going on and on about his math reasoning and math "graduate work" give it a rest.
Those math guys from MIT whose shoes you cannot shine were responsible for losing tens of billions of dollars on Wall Street.
It's not math, it's common sense. If where you live 1. jobs suck 2. illegal aliens abound 3. minorities abound 4. the city is insolvent 5. houses cost 10X median salaries=house prices can not go up.
Some places have all of the attributes above, some in combination, and some none of them.
The places without such attributes never suffered much of a bubble bursting of the asset of houses in the first place.
Tenants and toilets may interest some people, others not.
Personally I like to see my net worth increase without the hassle of dealing with them, but where I live today it's so full of kooks, SSI prozac achievers and illegals I would never want to be a landlord.
If someone dislikes someone else here the solution is easy and never involves the moderators.
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lisalisa says
You are so lady like, you must have attended one hell of a finishing school.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
swebb says
All I know is he's disrespected me for no reason other than he disagrees with me so I have to believe he's doing the same with others. I feel the temptation to let him have it and watch him say, "why me?" But I let it slide and don't block him because he is a perfect representation of the analytical buyer. If you watch what he does and says you'll know what the herd of small time investors are thinking, and that's very valuble.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
errc says
Sometimes it's not crowded because it's a bad deal. My inexperienced friend has learned that the hard way at tax deed auctions. Bidding against a few people with more money than brains. So sure he discovered burried treasure. Till he gained access and realized he was burried in beer cans, rats and feces rather than treasure.
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xenogear3 says
Lenders are not in the game to play mom and pop rental investment. I don't see that flying at all.
What I do see them atempting to do is rent to own with no traditional application procedure just to pawn them off.
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Mill Valley, CA
I don't stop in enough to know Roberto's progression from home hater to landlord or from purported good guy to 'the man'....but I find his posts informative.
I'm not much of the landlord type and don't foresee it in my future, but it's interesting to hear/read what makes others click.
The level of bickering that I see between members here is a little off-putting...and one of the reasons I don't check in more often, to be entirely frank.
I know it's a fine line between moderation and overzealous heavy handedness and for all of us it's at a different point and level, and Patrick would rather on the side of caution than censorship, but I find the potential backlash too great to post some things I'd like to here so I choose to stay away more often than visit.
Please don't think that's a condemnation of the entire site...only my opinion on how a lack of moderation is doing a disservice to future growth in new membership at this time.
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I find Roberto one of the few on here who has anything of substance to say. Most on here fall into two groups. There are the Chicken Littles hoping and praying that the economy implodes so they won't look like retards. Then there are the trolls who are probably unemployed and drunk at home and need to spice up their life by posting inflammatory remarks.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
wave9x says
No prayer necessary. Unless we have another big war it HAS TO happen eventually unless magically 1+1 doesn't equal 2 anymore. Although in the bubble times I heard people call it, "the new normal." Maybe this time it REALLY is the new normal. Really.
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Sedona, AZ
So people can't discuss different views without insulting each other? That's certainly a real problem with the population of this country!
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robertoaribas says
then you say, hypocritically
you've got a chip on your shoulder.
you insult individuals.
you insult broad groups (bears, pat.net users, engineers, etc).
you constantly repeat that you made a good call(hint: no one cares except you, and it makes you seem insecure. like al bundy constantly telling people he scored 4 touchdowns in a game for polk high)
you constantly complain about pat.net and how it's run.
after insulting individuals and broad groups of people you then complain they attack you, without realizing you were the one instigating.
you will note i didn't attack you personally(at the least i'm not name calling). i am communicating your behavior on this site to you of which you seem to be oblivious. you fail to realize, you're as much at fault as the others.
if you posted minus the insults, people would actually enjoy your posts(i'm sure i'm not the only one that loves data and analysis). personally, i can't stomach reading them because of your belittling attitude.
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Pleasanton, CA
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Cry baby tears. Roberto has no problem degrading and attacking anyone with an opinion that differs from his. Now we see postings like this trying to rally people to his side, saying he is being attacked. Just incredibly immature. Too bad there isn't a math equations for maturity. If there was it would go like this
Maturity = Sum (birth to now) [experience] + a little humbleness + healthy self esteem - virtues of greed, righteousness, and superiority.
I think Roberto's Maturity value would be so negative it would be risking going into the imaginary world. It would take a heavy does of multipliers to get back to the real world and attempt to get back to even.
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Dude, at 0:45 it's the guy from Attack from the Killer Tomatoes.
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freak80 says
They take their wins, but lemon socialize the losses onto the public, Hank you very much.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
renterwithlessthanhalfabrain, and war are precisely what I am talking about...
Yesterday, I posted a link to more facts about housing than these two idiots have posted in 1000 posts combined. They contribute nothing to any discussion ever, and have made the patrick.net site useless for anyone who wanted to actually learn anything about housing.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
War says
what the heck is Temple? you delusional idiot!
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San Jose, CA
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jsmarket says
@patrick,
I think JSmarket is dead on the issue. You might want to take his opinion into consideration.
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San Jose, CA
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robertoaribas says
Roberto,
I think you're taking it the wrong way. Have you ever thought that these guys/gals might have a crush on you? :)
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San Jose, CA
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War says
Sorry, you couldn't afford to be Roberto's bitch. You spent so much time stalking him only to be turned down. :(
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Goleta, CA
A Mafia Lipps Screw sent out an enflamatory posting once and I nearly spilled my Chardonnay. Eventually I got over it.
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46 male
Menlo Park, CA
E-man says
Why not just use the ignore link?
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San Jose, CA
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CaptainShuddup says
Personally I think congratulations a bit premature. As I stated in a previous thread I have an acquaintance who was in a position similar to Roberto's in the last bubble. He had bought a lot of cheap properties (Stockton, Sacramento, NV, etc) and rented them out. His properties generated positive rental income and equity, that is until they didn't. The market crashed and his assets quickly became liabilities to the tune of > $1M. I am not clear on the details of his loans but he claimed they were not dischargable even in bankruptcy. I have gathered from Roberto's posts that if worst comes to worst he can at least walk (run) away.
So instead of congratulations I will again in all sincerity wish Roberto the best of luck in his ongoing project.
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Mill Valley, CA
Patrick says
I wouldn't know who to ignore...because I don't drop in much....because the level of rancor is too high for comfort.
It's a conundrum wrapped in a conundrum.
I'm not thin-skinned, either...and I was born in NYC so I've experienced plenty of anger in my life being around it.
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46 male
Menlo Park, CA
jsmarket says
Just look at who's just flinging insults rather than being constructive.
Ignore is instant, and helps readability of the forum a lot.
You can always unignore easily too. The people you ignore are in your profile edit page:
http://patrick.net/profile.php
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12 threads
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Thanks to my low reading comprehension, and really short attention span ... added to a fair dose of not-really-caring, I have went all these many years with no need to use ignore (that I can recall).
I'm still convenced that this entire on-line thing is just me on my end, and one guy on the other end pretending to be all of the other people.
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It takes all kinds to make up this world. If you ignore a bunch of folks , then life becomes boring and one dimensional.
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Maybe it's just me, but it seems like there's a single very trollish user with many accounts.
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I agree with Robert about the real estate haters with repetitive hating opinions. I mean, why not just pick a photo of an attractive re agent and slander her for just the fun of it. I smell a lawsuit. I am going to log out now and try to kick this habit of browsing here. Later.
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46 male
Menlo Park, CA
lostand confused says
No need to ignore a bunch. Just ignoring one or two makes things much more pleasant.
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Are you a Realtor?
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
zesta says
Patrick should know by the IP address.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
War says
If he bought very low, put in lots of sweat equity, has low taxes and expenses he should be ok. What would make me nervous is if it's highly leveraged.
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46 male
Menlo Park, CA
ELC says
Yes, maybe it is time to finally make some system that tells which accounts are posting from the same IP address.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
Patrick says
Some forums systems even display the ip and location of the poster.
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Corning, NY
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Patrick says
Agree.
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Pleasanton, CA
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robertoaribas says
Thanks for making my point. I couldn't have done it better.