WatchOver the last 200 years the populations of the US and every industrialized nation has doubled rapidly. The US illustrates how over very short periods of time when the population doubles, it allows the past inhabitants' debt to be cut in half. If the number of people that enter the workforce to pay off past public debt doubles, the public debt bill per person naturally gets cut in half. Historically, consistent population growth has allowed all governments foreign, federal, state, and local to have a debt per person of working age cut in half after about 20 to 40 years. No longer will this privilege be possible. No longer can the ponzi debt get cut in half because no industrialized nation’s population will double again!
Year = U.S. Population size - Time it took for the population to double
1790 = 4 Million
1812 = 8 Million - 22 years
1838 = 16 Million - 26 years
1861 = 32 Million - 23 years
1892 = 64 Million - 31 years
1936 = 128 Million - 44 years
1992 = 256 Million - 56 years
Never Again!
In fact, many populations will start shrinking due to low total fertility rates. This means that past debt per person of working age will not be cut down by some percentage. No longer will government’s future burden from taking out 1 Trillion in debt be minimized to 500 billion because of a doubling of the population. The 1 Trillion debt will burden future inhabitants by 800 billion, 900 billion, or even 1.2 trillion depending on if any population growth exists. The current debt system in place has piggybacked on a rapidly doubling population to increase past inhabitants lifestyles while not burdening the future population because 2, 3, or 4 times the number of people were there to increase the money supply, incomes, stocks, and homes all while minimizing debts.
The massive debt problems related to every government over the last 30 years is not related to any political changes that have resulted in irresponsibility. In fact the opposite is true. Government is doing exactly what it has for the last 200 years; living outside of their means. The population growth and subsequent economic increases has always unknowingly bailed them out. Now that industrialized nation’s populations are all screeching to a halt, no longer will ignorance prevail.
Austerity is the key. People think stimulus will help future economic growth; it has worked before so it will work again. Wrong, a core assumption (if they even realize they are making it) is that twice as many people will be around to foot the bill. This will not be the case, more debt only adds to the problem. Growth will not come to the rescue this time around, it is going to take hard work, prudence, and responsibility. All things that have never been associated with government before!
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Buffalo, NY
Obviously you never heard of immigration. America is really good at that. We might not necesarily double our population, but we can get really close to it. Yes there's a natural limit, but considering the landmass we have access to and the amount of natural resources in the US, we haven't reached that limit, yet.
As for your issues on austerity and prudence, etc. that's a good idea but it has to reach up the ladder as well as down. Asking working people to foot the bills while the wealthy foist their externalities onto their plate can't be an option.
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Don't worry, we can kick the can down the road for many more decades.
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The most overused and abused words in America since 2008:
1) bubble
2) ponzi
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The reason for that is because when things are too good to be true nobody ever stops to ask why they are benefiting and on who's back. It is only when things are about to fail or when people are stuck with the costs that it is important to label the injustices with the word Ponzi.
Here, governments have been going into debt unsustainably, indefinitely and only now does it matter because the number of entrants into the system will not support the game, thus resembling a Ponzi-scheme. All the generations that benefited from racking up the unsustainable debt will be dead when the young and future inhabitants are forced to pay it back at much higher interest rates.
It is funny, parents cannot force private debts on their children after death, but for some reason public debt can be inherited. The initial people are the winners until not enough new people can support the scheme. Then the people left holding the bag assume all the costs with no gains; Ponzi. If there is a better word to use I would be interested......
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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EconPete says
Defaulting on debt is the key.
People who pour trillions of dollars into an insolvent government deserve to lose their money.
Once we're debt free, things will be fine just like in Iceland.
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iwog says
You mean the Chinese? ;-)
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Defaulting on debt is the key.
People who pour trillions of dollars into an insolvent government deserve to lose their money.
Ducky, You always were a bit too much of a Keynesian for me. Now that I see the end game, I can understand your framework a bit better (it does seem a bit too cynical -- even for me).
However, debt repudiation as the last step before relocalization does make some sort of sense in the bigger scheme of things... (perhaps around the time that the Chinese establish ownership over the South China Sea resources).
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Los Angeles, CA
Im pretty this wont blow up for a long long time.
Look at how japan is a ZIRP zombie for 20+ years. Get used to the zombie.
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EconPete says
Austerity doesn't work. Defaults work. There is no growing out of the problem, austerity or no austerity.
I'm not aware of any modern country that used austerity to get out of economic problems successfully.
Banksters want austerity because they can continue to collect on debts that would otherwise have to be written off; they continue to get paid on loans they never should have made, and they sacrifice the country and a generation or two of millions of people to do it. As long as they collect their interest payments, everything from Avocado Sales to Zoo Attendance can drop like a stone.
Argentina defaulted and within 2 years had high levels of growth. Ireland went the austerity path and three years later is growing worse and worse. Iceland also flipped the bird to the austerity crowd and is bouncing back, even though they have nothing but cod. The ironic thing is that Ireland had very little public and private debt before the financial crisis relative to other industrialized nations; I believe it was the lowest in the EU - lower than Germany, BTW.
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In short, we'll have prosperity when the last banker is hung with the entrails of the last bond vigilante.
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Bellingham, WA
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EconPete says
Hey Econpete, can you show me the ponzi in this chart?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDODNS
Here's a hint:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=94e
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Bellingham, WA
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Here's another hint, Econpete:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=94g
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Bellingham, WA
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EconPete says
What is actually happening is that we're borrowing what we should just be taxing and tariffing now.
The AAA-rated countries have tax to GDP ratios of ~45%, almost 2X ours.
The top 5% of this country are collecting 33% of the income.
We're losing $600B/yr out of the domestic economy via the trade deficit.
After-tax corporate profits are totaling 25% of wages now:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=946
It stuns me how conservatives refuse to see the problems that are oh-so-clear now.
Your clownshow ideological act can't last forever. Things are going to fail around here.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/07/05/156319272/federal-judge-richard-posner-the-gop-has-made-me-less-conservative
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futuresmc says
? I'm not aware of any wealth-creation opportunities going untapped due to lack of labor.
We got too many laborers no?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE
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Another hint for Econpete:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=93L
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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EBGuy says
I'm a Keynesian in the sense that I understand that the only sustainable economy is one in which consumers are supplied with as much wealth as capitalists are collecting in profits. That completes the circle, ensures a level of Darwinism for the rich, guarantees there will always be customers, and prevents ungodly accumulations of wealth which inevitably end in corruption.
I'm most agnostic as to how that is accomplished and there are really only three methods to make it happen:
1. Boosting wages by either minimum wage laws or unions.
2. Direct government entitlement programs like food stamps and unemployment insurance.
3. Borrowing. (temporary unless combined with default)
There's a fourth method that I consider obsolete and that's growth of the overall economy as was done in the early years of America. Think of homesteaders or California gold miners or fur traders. This only works if the growth in the economy by consumer class capitalists exceeds the wealth being mopped up by the elite 1%.
We live in a mature economy that is locked down by the fed and the government to grow at no more than 2-4% per year, which is approximately the growth in population plus inflation. In other words, no growth at all. Furthermore what growth does occur overwhelmingly goes to the richest Americans.
That leaves three remedies to the problem of wealth disparity. Currently the problem is being addressed by debt, and to a smaller extent government entitlements. Fixing it will absolutely require new progressive taxes, higher wages, and more government spending. The mixture of these remedies is open to debate, but there are no other paths than these three.
Unfortunately Republicans are going to attack all three. They preach austerity which will remove government supports due to spending cuts, they refuse to raise the minimum wage or support unions, and their war against lending subsidies will almost guarantee that debt becomes more expensive. Regardless of their effect on debt, we can't equalize the economy on debt forever so that will crash and burn someday.
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thunderlips11 says
So,,,,the policy(s) being executed by da Fed, anticipate default ?
SOON, THIS IS WHAT WE GET BACK INSTEAD OF A TAX REFUND .
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They are trying and will try to push the debt off onto future generations. Mark my words, that's all this government ever does.
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iwog says
An economy in which rich aristocrats have enslaved the rest of us CAN be sustainable. It worked for thousands of years.
I think that's the Republican plan, no?
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"Push the debt off onto future generations." In other words, good news for bondholders in coming years.
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Delurking says
Wow. Thanks Delurking. I see even Posner is coming back to reality.
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Judge Richard Posner: "I've become less conservative since the Republican Party started becoming goofy,"
Reagan's tax increases voodoo trickle down economics, still waiting for my part.
When were they not goofy?
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PockyClipsNow says
That's what I expect for next several years, lots of posturing and pretending, lots of bull****.
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HEY YOU says
Reagan and Bush Sr. put the neocons in minor posts where they couldn't do any harm; thinking them all nutjobs. W put the neocons in the highest offices. Neocons are now the dominant grouping in the Republican Party; before they were the nutty fringe.
I think that's what Posner is talking about.
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thunderlips11 says
Yep. The Republicans are batshit crazy and the only ones who don't realize it are the mind-numbed robots of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
If the Democrat party were more moderate on "gays, guns, n' god" they'd regain their permanent majority.
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"gays, guns, n' god" are distraction. Those issues aren't relevant to most public.
What's relevant is the economy and the non existent economic growth. There simply isn't any. There is only core employment which bounces around seasonal adjustments but doesn't really flow.
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FortWayne says
You've never lived in Small Town USA or conservative suburbs have you?
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freak80 says
Yep. That's what I was telling my partner. Romney did not put his foot into his mouth on his junket. Not at all. The audience were not his hosts, - the audience was my cousins in the Bubba Belt. I said to my partner, Romney's precisely calibrated remarks were for them. They'll watch at their homes in the Bubba Belt and say, "yeah, that's right, Mitt. You tell'em."
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Probably true. Romney will tell anyone what they want to hear, like any good politician.
Frankly, I wish the government (at all levels) would just get out of the marriage business. Isn't marriage an inherently religious institution? I say we just invoke the church-state separation thing and keep gummint out of marriage and visa versa.
Then we could do something about the top 0.1% that owns our government.
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I agree, though don't read too much in between the lines: my partner is my other-gender spouse coparent of our kids
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freak80 says
They won't. Too much money they won't consent to lose particularly when the marriage fails.
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Delurking says
No. We have plenty of wealth creation opportunities going untapped because of cronyism. The whole game is set up to preserve the wealth of the already wealthy by making innovation expensive. If American went back to its roots of encouraging business formation, we'd have enough jobs and look towards immigration to fill those that couldn't be filled domestically . Unfortunately, small businesses get hit with the full 35% tax rate and specially designed regulations to make them unable to compete with old, established firms. One of the reasons we don't have universal healthcare and universal daycare is to ensure skilled American workers can't leave their jobs to start thier own companies. They have to stay for the benefits. We subsidize fossil fuels, and by doing so, limit new investment in alternative energy sources. America's growth is unnaturally restricted due to cronyism. Until we get out from under that and incentivize small business formation instead of subsidization of existing multinationals, things will remain that way.
In an economically healthy America, labor works hard, saves for years, then grows their own businesses, which atrracts new labor to America. Wash, rinse, repeat. Cronyism prevents that by disincetivizing working and business startup in America.
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Houseless but not homeless says
Pretty much. With a 50% divorce rate, that's a major cash-cow for lawyers.
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futuresmc says
Correct. Corporate America is a complete racket.
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freak80 says
Not to mention the cost for filing, court costs, etc.
I remember a "Judge Judy" episode where she had one of her routine ridiculous cases which had a couple suing each other after a break up. She asked her baliff, Bird (why she does that is a mystery to me as he is not a part of the procedings, but it is her courtroom) why can't people just walk away from one another without resorting to such tactics. (I'm paraphrasing.) His answer was, "If they did that we'd all be out of a job." (No paraphrase, actual answer.) It was one of a few times I saw that woman smile. Not a pretty sight.
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Houseless but not homeless says
Hilarious.