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I was wrong! I repent! Sell your homes now! Never buy anything!

By robertoaribas   Follow   Mon, 30 Jul 2012, 12:43pm   6,809 views   65 comments
In Tempe AZ 85282   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (3)  

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1. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

   26   2:32pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)   “…and the evidence is more in the way the average family is being forced to live than in anything else.” WAH WAH WAH, jeeze the negative nancys are still all over the place here. IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY, you need follow the example of the tycooooonlike author of this thread ROBERTO REALTORO and buy as many freakin’ houses as you possibly can, then rent them out to doomer loosers and you will be living the high style high life!!! BOOKABOOKACHINCHING

2. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 21 threads 1,534 comments Victorville, CA Premium

   27   2:38pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   hrhjuliet says The Bay Area is a feudalistic plutocracy full of crime, filth and superficial space cadets, but it's still my homeland, and my brother's. Wish it wasn't, but it is. You just have to zoom out a little and remember that a Southwest ticket is a lot cheaper than the attendant premiums of collecting your mail in locale X. I exiled myself some 27 years ago to the Mojave after my third and best wife died. Now, whenever I visit Telluride, I get a much a more dynamic experience of the city than I did when I was working and sleeping there. Plus, the distance has forced me to make a more concerted and creative effort at maintaining what I consider golden friendships. In the end, it's not always a bad thing, being uprooted, but it definitely makes you think and look at things differently and that is never a bad thing. And keep in mind, your brother didn't move to the Bermuda Triangle. It's not exile, it's just a strategic move on his part. He's moving around the board like in a game of chess. There's nothing saying what will happen in 5-10 years, which will zip by before you even know it.

3. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 107 threads 3,865 comments

   28   2:42pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Robert you don't live in the bay area like most members out here. Phoenix is a different market. Some markets are better to wait out, some aren't. CA has too many novice "investors" who are going to be losing their shirts along with everything else in the short term future. It's almost as easy as shorting FB at IPO.

4. hrhjuliet Follow Befriend 7 threads 94 comments

   29   5:35pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   FortWayne says CA has too many novice "investors" who are going to be losing their shirts along with everything else in the short term future. This market seems so volatile. The numbers don't add up when compared to job growth and median income. I think you may be right.

5. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,536 comments Los Angeles, CA

   30   5:39pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL @ Roberto Realtoro! that right there is funny, I don't care who ya are!

6. jvolstad Follow Befriend (4) 1,005 threads 1,147 comments San Antonio, TX jvolstad's website

   31   7:38pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   We know that Realtors are of the devil.

7. hrhjuliet Follow Befriend 7 threads 94 comments

   32   8:41pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   jvolstad says We know that Realtors are of the devil. No, but they do tend to live in a fantasy world. They listen to each others hype and hope and pray the market stays insane for as long as it can, despite who it hurts in the end.

8. Cheeseus Sonofdog Follow Befriend 3 threads 65 comments

   33   9:53pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Anyone remember the 1980's when we had investors like Carlton Sheets and Tom Vu getting people to speculate as landlords? Many of them bought and rents remained stagnant for years. We are seeing a whole new crop of people who think being a landlord is easy as going to a free seminar.

9. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

   34   1:13am Wed 1 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Never buy anything in that hellhole full of illegal aliens. Tomorrow 102F, Thursday 106F The place is barely fit for a Mexican. But I hear houses are a pretty good deal there. Shit, for that matter, they are a very good deal in Juarez, Nuevo Laredo, and similar. I'm sitting with my AAPL which is going to bring me so much capital gain I will buy a bay area house for cash in two years if the whim strikes. Not ANY town either. East Bay and beyond are out of the picture. Some guys brag that they have "positive cash flow". Wow. That's so amazing to have. Try some capital gains on for size sometime.

10. mike2 Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 152 comments El Cerrito, CA

    35   4:22am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   To Hjhrjuliet: Your email sounds like a very depressed situation. Sorry you feel that way but it is not true you cannot buy in the Bay area. Of course there are some areas you cannot buy in but that is true for everyone. Also I really don't know to many parents in fact none that I know that each parent is working 2 jobs each unless they ar part time jobs. Are you willing to make sacrifices and live in an area that is not the best for a while to get started? Are you willing to make an extra 30-45 minute commute if needed? You say only 1% or a RE agent can afford a home? That is not true at all. Many of my sons friends who are in their 20's and early 30's are buying their first homes and paying under $2k per month in many areas of the Bay Area. Not in SF true but all around the East Bay, North Bay, Solano County, Oakland,even some in San Rafael. Some have small down payments of 3.5%. We are not rntitled to live in the Bay area. No one is. Like others said..It is not that great to be honest, It has a lot od issues you don't fnd outside the Bay Area so their are other choices also all within an hour from the Bay area. What about Pleasatn hill, Concord, Oakland, El Cerrito, Good areas of Richmond, Hercules, El Sobrante,Tara Hills,Parts of marin,Pinole, Novato, Petaluma, most of these areas have prices from $200k- $400k which means your payment can be around$1200-$2400 per month PITI included. Like your parents and my parents and I did...Buy a small starter home in an OK area and build from that. Sacrifice and save your $$. Don't waste your money on things you don't need or want.The opportunity is there.

11. positivedennis Follow Befriend 10 comments Idyllwild, CA

    36   5:01am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The sign is photoshopped.

12. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    37   6:50am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   errc says Or, how about move to one of the other 49 states with all their locales that are much more affordable. You want to live in the same tiny piece of land as every other idiot that would commit financial suicide to live in sfba. Sure, you think its nice, but its not that nice. But it's worth a lifetime of debt slavery to live in a place with "nice" weather! ;-)

13. bg Follow Befriend (13) 43 threads 322 comments Pacifica, CA Premium

    38   6:52am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   errc says Or, how about move to one of the other 49 states with all their locales that are much more affordable. You want to live in the same tiny piece of land as every other idiot that would commit financial suicide to live in sfba. Sure, you think its nice, but its not that nice. People still whining about sfba prices are starting to sound very whiny. Waaah waaah waaah, I can't afford sfba prices. Well guess what, either can I, so I choose to live somewhere else, with four seasons and low unemployment and affordable housing. Much more bang for your buck! You're not entitled to own a house in sfba, anymore then the next guy, so either pay the exorbitant prices or move somewhere you can afford #harshreality @errc Or stay here, don't buy a house and save a lot of money. For me, I am not on the edge of my seat waiting for prices to fall. If they don't, that is fine, but I don't think I am going to buy one of these crappy houses and mortgage my future. It feels a tiny bit weird to plan to rent for the rest of my life, but it is a fine enough choice. The only problem is that if some huge financial collapse happens where money loses value and it somehow keeps you safe to own a house. One thing that I think this site does really well is to get me informed about the actual costs of renting and the actual costs of buying in the SFBA. It helps me defend myself against the hype of buying. It doesn't guarantee me that prices will fall. There are no promises. I do think that the fundamentals don't support these prices, but that is more like a parlor game. My guess is that this can't last. I don't make that bet because I am fiending for a house, I make that bet because I am a smart person who has ideas about the world.

14. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 2,455 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    39   7:59am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   If there is such a huge financial collapse such that housing is your only savior you better have stored up a LOT of yams and ammo!

15. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,267 comments 31 male Premium

    40   8:11am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   Protected   I'm not convinced that paying exorbitant rent is much better than paying exorbitant purchase price Here in SE PA (pennsylvania not palo alto), one can buy 5-10 acres and custom build the house of their dreams for 250k-300k. I'm not sure what the utility of coastal californian land is that warrants house (land) prices at many multiples of the rest of the country. I guess it boils down to the limited supply of land with restrictive zonig relative to the amount of suckers I mean people that are still mezmorized by the gold rush mentality "california is so effing cool". I like the led zeppelin song Going to Calif also, but I'm not so easily duped by marketeering Housing is just a consumption item to me. Its utility is as shelter, it carrys a cost. Math comes easy to me, so it was never a big question as to how much can I possibly afford. It was more a decision as to what makes sense, and how can I make it work for me, rather then against me. What with all the tough times in the economy, I've been able to share my extra space with boarders. Its nice to have people to split the utilities with, and they can watch the dog when I travel.. that, and they pay my mortgage

16. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    41   8:43am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   errc says I guess it boils down to the limited supply of land with restrictive zonig relative to the amount of suckers I mean people that are still mezmorized by the gold rush mentality "california is so effing cool". $500k is a lot of money for a small parcel of dirt. But as the old saying goes, everything is worth what it's purchaser will pay for it.

17. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,240 threads 6,175 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA Premium

    42   9:23am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   freak80 says But as the old saying goes, everything is worth what it's purchaser will pay for it. It's not true though, IMHO. Tulips were never worth what the insane Dutch were paying for them in their bubble. One lemming's overpayment should not be used as proof that all other lemmings must follow him off the cliff.

18. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    43   9:33am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   freak80 says But as the old saying goes, everything is worth what it's purchaser will pay for it. The problem with this saying is, it ignores a huge elephant in the room. It's called human behavior. Humans tend to think in herds sometimes and set themselves up for a disaster.

19. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    44   9:38am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Patrick says It's not true though, IMHO. Tulips were never worth what the insane Dutch were paying for them in their bubble. I agree...it's crazy. But no one ever claimed humans were rational. We're emotional beings. That's probably why religion exists. It's hard to explain rationally. But as the old joke goes, "there are no atheists in foxholes."

20. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    45   9:39am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   uomo_senza_nome says Humans tend to think in herds sometimes and set themselves up for a disaster. "It's true because we believe it." "A lie told a thousand times becomes the truth." Groupthink is the most powerful force in the universe, after compound interest.

21. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    46   9:45am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   freak80 says Groupthink is the most powerful force in the universe, after compound interest. There was some research done on sociology by Robert Merton in late 40's and he coined the term self-fulfilling prophecy. http://users.ox.ac.uk/~sfos0060/prophecies.shtml Humans are complex dynamic systems and these systems behave in unpredictable ways.

22. retire59 Follow Befriend 4 threads 21 comments

    47   9:52am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   No matter what the situation, be it surrounding and being near family, etc. to be "house poor" is not going to help. We are planning to retire soon. We have been fortunate enough to rent all our lives and were able to save. We are now planning to buy as we don't want to deal with landlords when we are 85 and get kicked out, etc. on a fixed income; but we are still looking for an extremely conservative mortgage and will not "budge" from our budget so to speak. And with our retirement income and savings we have enough for repairs, travel, healthcare, etc. So always applaud yourself for not making yourself house poor. Again, as some others have said on this site, you can travel and visit your family; but think about how it would be if that family member stayed near family and lost their home as it was too expensive.....not a good choice either. Hang in there...

23. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    48   10:21am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   uomo_senza_nome says Humans are complex dynamic systems and these systems behave in unpredictable ways. You must be an engineer too. ;-)

24. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    49   10:26am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   uomo_senza_nome says There was some research done on sociology by Robert Merton in late 40's and he coined the term self-fulfilling prophecy. Yep, a "run on a bank" is a classic self-fulfilling prophecy. Heck our whole fractional-reserve banking system is essentialy a "confidence game." One that works! Most of the time. Heck the value of money itself is really just an illusion. http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economy-grinds-to-halt-as-nation-realizes-money,2912/

25. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    50   10:48am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   freak80 says Heck our whole fractional-reserve banking system is essentialy a "confidence game." One that works! Most of the time. Fractional reserve banking is fascinating to me. It is essentially a self-similar structure of repetitively dividing what should be held as deposit and what can be loaned. The only change that I think is essential to FRB to function properly is every individual should get to make that choice of time preference. Today, the bank gets to do that (which the banks love). Because the banks get to do that, they can borrow short term to lend long term (which is a form of a legalized fraud). They also get to decide the time preference, which adds more risk to the system (because of centralization, rather than distributed intelligence). freak80 says Heck the value of money itself is really just an illusion. Value of money is essentially a claim on human labor.

26. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    51   11:02am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Fractional reserve banking gets into that weird world where "the velocity of money" matters more than the "store of value" concept of money. Doesn't the Austrian School believe fractional reserve banking is inherently fraudulent?

27. aragonzbooks Follow Befriend 3 threads 13 comments Mantoloking, NJ

    52   11:10am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Does anyone want to comment on what's happening with Wall Street today...and all of Europe??

28. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    53   11:14am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   aragonzbooks says Does anyone want to comment on what's happening with Wall Street today...and all of Europe?? "Buy buy buy...sell sell sell..."

29. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    54   1:33pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yeah, if the housing market doesn't follow your forecast 95% price drop, blame it on fractional reserve banking, or FED policy, or herd mentality of all those people too dumb to understand your permadoom forecasts!!!! Do you guys ever hear that soft whispering voice in the back of your head, that you're completely full of crap wrong about housing?

30. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    55   1:55pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Do you guys ever hear that soft whispering voice in the back of your head, that you're completely full of crap wrong about housing? Where did I make any predictions about housing? As far as I can tell, the "bubble" is over, at least nationally. Look at Case-Shiller.

31. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 353 comments

    56   2:34pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   repo4sale says Bottoms was 2011... Top will be about 2018-2021 Not sure about that... I'd like to agree nationally the bottom was 2011.. BUT, i don't see how a huge run up in real estate prices can happen without wage inflation, super lax lending standards coming back, and interest rates getting pushed to 1-2%... Then we got a good chance of another bubble. My name is Boom and Bust cycle though.. so I guess I should believe it.

32. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 353 comments

    57   2:37pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentalWatch says Housing prices are going to fall 95%? You are a lunatic... Yes a $200K home is going to sell for $10K.. And at 3.5% interest a 30 year loan of $10K is $55 a month including taxes. You are a moron if you think a home in 2012 that goes for $200K will ever be able to owned for $55 a month.

33. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 353 comments

    58   2:38pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentalWatch says How can 2011 be the price bottom when 2012 prices are lower than 2011? Did you miss that i said NATIONALLY prices bottomed in 2011.. which so far is true.

34. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 353 comments

    59   2:40pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentalWatch says Not it's not. You are a lunatic... Yes a $200K home is going to sell for $10K.. And at 3.5% interest a 30 year loan of $10K is $55 a month including taxes. You are a moron if you think a home in 2012 that goes for $200K will ever be able to owned for $55 a month.

35. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    60   3:01pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   freak80 says Fractional reserve banking gets into that weird world where "the velocity of money" matters more than the "store of value" concept of money. FRB is a neat way to distributing credit through the economy, where in the individual savers appetitie for risk is taken into account. Cumulatively, through each individual's own intelligence on their risk -- the overall economy has taken on the risk that is within reason. However, FRB as it exists today is fraud because the banks get to decide what fraction to take risk with (essentially all savers deposits) and also the duration of the risk (banks go long duration on the risks). Velocity is another fascinating variable because it is entirely non-linear and related to human behavior. The Fed wants greater velocity of money (more inflation) but you can see how hard it is to change human behavior. We are saddled with debt and people want to pay it down. I've had a hard time getting around money as a store of value concept, because that function is totally at conflict with medium of exchange. Money needs to flow, not sit still for the economy. Money as a store of value has been a source of a lot of problems, not least the Great Depression I. Store of value should be rare works of fine art, wine, precious metals etc. They should not circulate as medium of exchange. freak80 says Doesn't the Austrian School believe fractional reserve banking is inherently fraudulent? The Austrian School in America does (Ludwig Von Mises Institute, www.mises.org ). They are hardcore libertarian right wing fringe Ron Paul movement. FRB is not inherently fraudulent as they make out to be. If we start circulating gold coins and go to 100% reserve banking, it would be a disaster.

36. uomo_senza_nome Follow Befriend (13) 787 threads 1,542 comments

    61   3:03pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says yeah, if the housing market doesn't follow your forecast 95% price drop, blame it on fractional reserve banking, or FED policy, or herd mentality of all those people too dumb to understand your permadoom forecasts!!!! Roberto, not everyone is Darrell in Phoenix LOL. But you can't deny herd mentality existed in 2005. You sold your house into that herd right?

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    62   5:36pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   uomo_senza_nome says Roberto, not everyone is Darrell in Phoenix LOL. But you can't deny herd mentality existed in 2005. You sold your house into that herd right? sim, voce nao e Darrell... and you are correct, there can definitely be a herd mentality, with housing especially. In 2004, when it started really going up, I couldn't find anyone who would even CONSIDER the possibility it was a bubble. Now, let's consider which way that herd is likely to run in Phoenix for now. With very low supply, prices that have been rising swiftly for over a year, I would guess there is more of a chance of irrationality on the upside than the downside; I know so many "investors" who have quit their jobs to concentrate on flipping homes. there aren't any deals to find at the auctions anymore, these guys have to buy something, to have a way to make an income, so they will chase the price to where they barely make $5000 or $10,000 on a flip; Not worth the risk to me at all, since you can't even inspect these homes! Likewise, when the news keeps talking about prices going up, it gathers more people who want a piece of that pie... Maybe, we will get another bubble, who knows? I don't think the majority learned a single thing from the last crash! Credit is harder to get today, so that could slow it, but I wouldn't completely rule it out over even just the next five years or so... If price/rent gets silly again, I will sell out again!

38. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,612 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    63   9:29pm Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Yup says Roberto have you considered the impact of the fiscal cliff on your renters ability to pay rent? A typical 50K/year family is going to lose $2500/year starting January 1, 2013 with no changes in current law. Even if they extended the bush tax cuts, they will be losing $1000/year in increased social security payments which no one is talking about extending. For those making 100K/year you get to double it to $5000/year. I am betting those numbers will crush the disposable income of most families. I am betting that will crush your bet that you called the housing bottom. Of course you are probably counting on a government handout (extending the tax cuts) so people can continue to pay you rent at the cost of ever greater deficits. Good Luck with that! So his rent would drop from $1,200/month to $1,000/month. He will still make money, but just be making less money. Not a deal breaker though.

39. michaelsch Follow Befriend 21 threads 581 comments South Pasadena, CA

    64   3:48am Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   BoomAndBustCycle says You are a lunatic... Yes a $200K home is going to sell for $10K.. And at 3.5% interest a 30 year loan of $10K is $55 a month including taxes. It happened in Detroit. If they reinflate the housing bubble they will turn the whole USA into one big Detroit. How much does a house cost in Zimbabwe in real money? BTW, your wooden box will still cost $200K nominal or maybe even $300K. But a loaf of bread will be $500 and a gallon of gas $700.

40. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,843 comments Monterey, CA

    65   3:55am Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   michaelsch says How much does a house cost in Zimbabwe in real money? How much does a house cost in London?

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