This is from one of our discussion in 2006. There were topics on Patrick.net and in my own blog (capitalism2.org) which featured the [then new] Case Shiller method and a healthy dose of linear regression.
As Predicted in 2006
By Randy H Follow Mon, 30 Jul 2012, 8:04pm 5,114 views 63 comments
In Greenbrae CA 94904
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Ppl, isn't part of the answer is where the white collar jobs are going?
Right now, I see no better place to buy than the Dallas-Houston-SA triangle. The 3:1 mortgage to income ratio holds well over there and for the most part, the work which is being in-shored is headed in that direction over the former bubble zones like the Boston-DC corridor. All and all, how badly can a $220K/3 bdrm home in Dallas go, when companies are adding headcount all around? The risk is in let's say places like greater Boston, where former big wigs like Fidelity are routinely sending thousands of jobs to other regions, defense contractors re-direct future projects to TX/CO/VA, and other companies basically suffice on their prior skeleton crews, simply replacing those who periodically quit.
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Peter P says
Oh that's why. And here I thought it was because of the massive accounting fraud and the banks holding onto bad debt because foreclosing would force them to recognize losses.
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Is there a difference?
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Peter P says
Probably not.
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Philistine says
Haha..Nailed it...and some people still think worst is behind us...delaying the inevitable by 5 years? 10 years? 15 years?...sounds familiar...Japan tried that...but failed miserably...
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Yes, life is horrible in Japan. What a miserable failure.
Give me a break.
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Randy H says
Who is talking about life? We are talking about home prices. :)
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CrazyMan says
Please point out where, precisely, I made the above referenced mistake? Please copy/paste where I applied anything to a certain region.
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thomaswong.1986 says
Why are you asking a question you already seem to have answered? I assume you aren't interested in learning that there indeed is a proven relationship between interest rates and prices, but that it is not linear. The function driving prices is extremely noisy and at best is approximated by a multi-linear analysis, of which interest rates are but one variable.
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Randy H,
Is "reticulating splines" a SimCity 2000 reference??? ;-)
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freak80 says
What I love about Patrick.net is that it's impossible to be clever around here.
Yes, I learned more about economics from SC2000 than from my overpriced ivy mba.
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Randy H says
I don't doubt it!
Now if we could only get New York State politicians to understand the "death spiral" of high-taxes and outmigration leading to even higher taxes, and even more outmigration.
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Randy, I still carry a folded copy of this chart in my wallet along with
Ivy Zelman's ARM reset chart. With rates like we have today, many ARMs were a good bet (although some folks did get slammed when they went to the full amortization schedule). I shudder to think where we'd be without the low rates. In my mind the ARM reset chart is why we've got to be Japan for the next decade. Those who can, did refi -- others will default if the rates go up.
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I think Japan is a reasonable model. A lot of what I based the Bubblizer on was from quantitative research derived from the Japanese deflation.
The reason a lot of people can't fathom the Japan outcome is that it is DEFLATION, not inflation that drove their macro experience. Deflation is hard for nearly all of us reading this blog to really comprehend, unless you're one of the few 85+ year olds who happens to be internet savvy. The fundamental evidence of deflation is all around, quite unfortunately.
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And deflation really would cause the original 2006 predictions above to go way off the rails. Be ready to crumble up that piece of paper in your wallet and toss it.
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I don't see any upturn on the chart, so no need to toss it yet. (Its mostly for the "who could have foreseen this?" folks). The C/S Composites are still negative year over year; I'm betting we'll see new post peak lows come January. C/S SF Bay Area may be another story; I'll have to wait an see if the index turns early in August. Deflation Nation indeed. Heck, even my summer plane tickets back East are only $321 round trip this year. Last I checked, effective rates on short term T-bonds were negative and the Swiss and Danes were auctioning off debt with negative interest rates.
Any thoughts on virtual goods seller Zygna versus virtual goods marketplace Second Life? Parallels (maybe you could start a separate thread)?
As AF would say, potatoes are the only real alternative currency.
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Comparison of virtual market bubbles. Now there would be a very interesting comparison. I'm not sure it would generate quite as much interest, but the data is there. I'll see if I can dig up some of the SecondLife research data I had from that whole circus. You know, to this date the only real brush with real world creepishness due to my blogging has come from the SecondLife cultists.
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EBGuy says
My young DINK coworker got their 800K place in The Fortress this summer, proud new 1st Time Homeowners In The Fortress. S/he told me, their savvy "5/1" adjustable made it doable. I dunno what the "/1" means but s/he told me that the rate (or payment?) won't go above 2.5% till 5 yrs have elapsed.
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CrazyMan says
That's right. It Is Different Here. And It Is Different This Time.
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Randy H says
Yes it is. Even in times of deflation there will some things we pay for that have rising prices. Doesn't mean there's inflation. Just ask the many folks whose wages are stagnant.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
translate... couldnt get a traditional 20% down + Fixed Rate 30 yr mortgage..
Perhaps that $800K should be alot less.. like 1997 prices ($350K plus 35%).
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Randy H says
Hype! thats what is driving prices...
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thomaswong.1986 says
That's much more logical and better supported than:
-Record affordability
-Low inventory
-Rising rents
How do you measure hype on a graph anyway?
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Deflation can act as either The Great Equalizer or The Great Stratifier. The current establishment is assuredly doing everything in their power to try to split the difference, but that's the least likely outcome. I think right now deflation is causing accelerated stratification -- some things keep costing more and more compared to stagnant wages and salaries, but many other things, which happen to be those things coveted by those in upper wealth strata, are deflating very rapidly compared to their wages/wealth-income.
If deflation is allowed to spin into a spiral cycle, then it starts reversing and destroying the upper wealth bands very effectively, as it did in the Great Depression. But Japan showed us that it's possible for enough modern government intervention to prevent that outcome and to preserve the current arrangement of wealth strata by simply extending the time horizon for the correction.
I think the best outcome the inflationists could hope for at this point is some sort of very weak stagflation. I think even that is a fleeting hope at this point.
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Randy H says
It's completely fine if you ignore all the radiation and such.
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thomaswong.1986 says
Or they are smarter than you and realize the expectation of interest rates increasing over the next 30 years is already priced into the 30 year fixed product. So they decided it was unlikely they would stay in the current (starter) house for more than 6 years and decided against paying a higher interest rate. 6 years because even if it resets higher in year 5, it still can only go up 1-2% per year, which would put them where they would be with the fixed product. For most mortgage products, interest rates would need to effectively double for the floating rate to be higher than current 30 year fixed products.
This doubling is likely in the next 30 years at some pointm, but unlikely in the next 5 (or even 10). If interest rates do double, rest assured house prices will be significantly higher so refinancing or selling is certainly an option.
These ARMs are not "teaser" rates that you heard about during the boom/bust.
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EBGuy says
Yep. For those ARM owners that stuck out this long, HARP 2.0 helped some people. If the current HARP 3.0 passes, expect the distressed market to dry up significantly, and we would essentially be back to a normal market so quick that it would make your head spin. Then expect a steady year or year upswing after that.
I know a couple persons that saw their ARM dropped to 3.0% and 3.25%. They're as happy as ever. Each month, they're paying down over $1k worth of principal. I guess you can call that beginner's luck. Good for them. :0)
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On another note, I know quite a few people that are paying about 2.0% interest only on their HELOC. That's a payment of $166/month for each $100k of borrowed money.
Get that money & throw it in mREITs, and you would make out like a bandit. We're talking about making a 10-12% spread here. Of course, there is risk. There's no free lunch. Gamble at your own risk. :0)
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Randy H says
Yeah, tsunamis and nuclear meltdowns are wonderful!
Just kidding, I'm sure Japan is fine overall. I wouldn't want to live in Tokyo though, seems very crowded.
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For those willing and able to do the actual financial math, there are a lot of incredibly attractive debt options available right now to those with the credit worthiness and collateral.
For example, the interest only option fixed rate loans are not the IO garbage we saw in the boom, but are back to the products they were intended to be -- an option for high-equity owners who want to maximize interest deduction tax shield but intend to pay down the remaining principle in a block later.
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E-man says
Yes, in 2005, they were giving out prime - 1.25% - 1.5% HELOC. Of course at that time, prime was 7% - 8% vs 2.75% now (That's why it was prime minus). Effectve my loan is around 1.5% - 1.75%, net of tax, it is around 1% - 1.25%.
The big mistake was my line was 220K and I utilizied appoximatelty 120K of it. In 2008, they took away the rest. Should have banked that 100K and leave it in a bank account and put in into a REIT/preferreds in the middle of 2009.
It looks like prime rate will stay low for at least the next 3-5 years. Yes, we are making out like bandits with the money (3 years already) and will prospectively for the next 3-5 years. We bought preferred shares that pays 10 cents every month for around $9, about 12% yield. The shares are now $11, or 9% yield.
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SFace says
Aww. Extracting that $100k would have been golden. We're talking about making a spread of $1,000/month with REIT for doing nothing, and that doesn't even count the appreciation in the stock prices. :o)
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I made the same mistake. Paid down the equity line to be conservative and then in late 2009 they took away most of what I paid down due to the financial collapse. I would have been FAR better off to max out the line and put it in the bank. Between interest deduction and interest arbitrage I would have netted between 9-11% risk free return on that capital.
Oh well, can't win em all.
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Randy H says
Funny! on my last investment property that I didn't sell in 2006, I took out an equity line, and took all the money out, placing it in a different bank. I was afraid BofA would steal it back if I left it in an account there, to pay down the HELOC. They froze it in late 2007...
So, I had (have) 125K loan against a condo that plummeted to about $45K in value in 2011. I used that money to buy 3 more condos, and the payment on it is STILL only $287 a month.
This has worked out even better than if I had sold that unit, because I would have had to pay: 1. capital gains taxes... 2 depreciation recapture, 3. transaction fees...
Instead, that unit has actually remained cash flow positive the entire time... and now values are on the way back up, along with signs rents are improving.
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robertoaribas says
These are the kind of stuff that I see here too. Homeowners underwatered by $100k-$150k are still doing good (I wouldn't call it great) because the tenants are paying down their phantom principal on the order of $1,000 - $1,200/month. With RE prices rebounded recently and the principal pay down in the last couple of years, they are now only underwatered by $25k to $75k. They're now thanking me for stopping them from short selling a couple of years ago. Hey, I get lucky sometimes. :)
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Part of the reason the "ghost inventory" arguments are wrong. Yes, there is certainly some shadow inventory in terms of inefficiency and local market manipulations. But not all underwater properties are distressed. Sometimes I think people on these blogs fail to grasp what buying-opportunities look like. They are risky, bumpy, and messy.
It was very very very easy 7 years ago to make a rent-versus-buy decision. In fact it was so simple it was a very unique event within our lifetimes. I think the risk now is that many who lived through that think such clear conditions are normal and they think similar clarity will appear when the equation reverses. Those folks will probably be waiting a very long time.
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david1 says
Huh?
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Infiltrate says
Interest rates doubling would happen because the Fed is attempting to control inflation. Inflation cannot occur unless BOTH prices and salaries rise. In an environment of rising salaries and prices, home prices tend to also rise in tandem with general background inflation.
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Randy H says
i think so too but a lot of people argue that inflation is only rising prices.
There's one person on patrick.net who will throw a tantrum on the blog to make that point, while backing it up with a list of citations.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
For some, inflation is a religion in and of itself. Shiff and others mislead a great many people over the past 10 years.
Even during stagflation, there are both rising salaries and prices. The main difference we saw during our stagflationary malaise was that wages rose very unevenly and with sudden jolts (a lot of that due to unions and government wages being tied to CPI).