Patrick.net

Case Shiller July 2012

By Buster   Follow   Tue, 31 Jul 2012, 6:16am   13,436 views   259 comments
In Larkspur CA 94939   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/07/31/us/politics/ap-us-home-prices.html?_r=1&hp

Yep, just what I suspected via casual observation. Prices are UP.

Most Liked Comments

1. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   1   3:35pm Sun 5 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   I checked out of this when Goran went ad hominem on me simply for pointing out he was wrong about calculating cash flow. Apparently that landed me a label of being an official "real estate booster". Again, life's too short to argue with whack-a-moles. I learned that lesson the hard way some years back here on p.net.

2. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   2   7:17am Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   Buster says a 33% discount is nothing to sneer at. Oh please, that's the same trick the retailers use! "These pants would normally cost $200, but we're selling them for only $30!" I wouldn't call 33%-off bubble prices to be a "discount."

3. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 703 comments Los Angeles, CA

   3   11:03pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   iwog says You gots to win on da internets! LOL!

4. tiny tina Follow Befriend 2 threads 175 comments

   4   12:40pm Fri 3 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   I used to come to this site for the information, now I just stay for the comedy.

5. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   5   11:37am Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   B.A.C.A.H. says Like for instance, you spared us all the gory details about how you are so much smarter and savvy than others from your Marin County Conquest. Details are overrated. Outthinking the Marin set is hardly a badge of honor. I don't like to generalize, but people here are "special". I'm happy to be finally escaping. Perhaps I'll chronicle my escape from Marin as an example of my intelligence and savvy some day. ...I just think Rob likes to get people going and chumps like Goran take the bait.

6. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   6   3:17pm Sun 5 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Goran_K says That's simply untrue. I never rely on Zillow estimates, I only used Zillow in this thread because IWOG brought up the website first, and I used Zillow Zestimates in a tongue-in-cheek way to show that Zillow isn't a very authoritative source for unmolested data. I can see how that point might be missed by some. The $185,000 sale I brought up was an actual MLS recorded transaction from late 2009 (same time as iwog's purchase). There wasn't much tongue-in-cheek about your use of the Zillow data, and it's quite startling how often the responses people make to your posts elicit the response of 'that is simply not true/I didn't say that/blah-blah-blah.' When you're backed into a corner, you seem to have a tendency to want to bullshit your way out whatever the cost. It's clear that in this thread you were wrong. Why is that so hard to admit?

7. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   7   3:10pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that... I wasn't insulting you for being 50 and ugly (in all honesty, you're not a bad looking 50 year old). I was trying to show you how silly it is for a 50 year old to call someone a "nitwit" or "assbiter" to try to get their point across, especially someone who claimed to be a lecturer at a major public university. I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

8. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,747 comments

   8   10:13am Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran_K says The job situation actually got worse from April to June while the median home price in some metros rose. Hmm. Home prices may be rising in the short term, but the fundamentals aren't supporting a long term trend. That's just a MINOR issue.... needing a job to get a mortgage.... that's so un-American.... don't we give houses away to anyone who can fog a mirror??? oh wait..... that's why the bubble popped....

9. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,747 comments

   9   11:39am Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says I'm not sure why this concept is so hard to get across, but there are millions of people in this country with millions of dollars in cash that need investing. But there are tens of millions of private home owners who want to sell and move to another house but can't due to being underwater or their jobs. These tens of millions are the ones that need to get into the game if we want to see a sustained recovery. The institutional investors aren't going to be able to carry the recovery on their own.

10. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,747 comments

    10   11:47am Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   From CNBC.... they are usually leading the parade on the rah, rah side... Why Rise in Home Prices May Not Mean Much—Yet http://www.cnbc.com/id/48417387 "We have observed two consecutive months of increasing home prices and overall improvements in monthly and annual returns," he added. "However, we need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall.” "This is not the first time since the initial home price collapse in 2006 that we have seen prices rise, only to fall again. We saw large price gains in 2009, thanks to the home buyer tax credit, and we saw slight gains last spring due to some seasonality and a big run on distressed properties by investors. " "The concern is that these price gains are largely on the low end, distressed sector, where the bulk of home sales are right now. Lack of supply is pushing prices up there, but not, perhaps, in the rest of the market, where sales are still sluggish, and buyers need mortgages, unlike so many all-cash investors. "

11. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 29 threads 1,473 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

    11   12:41pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Like food, housing is non-negotiable. The working class will pay whatever they are forced to. RE is worse than food, since it is by definition immobile and thus enjoys a location monopoly. RE is by far the most corrupted sector of our economy. I'm amazed that it took me 30-odd years to figure that out.

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,445 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    12   1:14pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says Or, just move to a different town.... no one is "chained" to a town like they are to a water source. It's not that easy. People are chained to jobs and furthermore all real estate eventually ends up in the hands of the aristocracy. Rome went this way, France went this way, and England went this way before the merchant class got rich enough to challenge the nobility. It's not an all or nothing proposition either. As long as we trend towards wealth disparity, we will also trend towards landlords of all types taking more and more money off the top. The ONLY way to reverse it is by changing the politics of the afflicted country, and there are far too many Republicans in the USA to do this easily.

13. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    13   2:16pm Tue 31 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Yeah except none of that is true. There are no 3br SFRs in concord renting in the $1500 range. Zero. Nada. They are all townhomes or condos therefore do not compete with anything I own. The fact you'd even post it is disingenuous. I never claimed that. I said 3/2 homes. You made the assumption that I was talking about SFRs. And you're wrong, condos and townhomes are competition to your rental homes whether you admit it or not. iwog says The "troll" has 48 friends on this board while it appears you've got 1. I didn't mean "troll" as in forum troll, I was using your analogy of the "troll collecting money" under the bridge. It's true you have more friends on Patrick.net, I think there are a lot of homeowners who agree with your pro-housing rhetoric. But you also have nearly 9,000 post (my what a busy attorney and property landlord you must be), and have been here for 4 years. I just joined this Spring. Additionally I have gotten more friend request that I haven't added as of yet, but it's nice to know you consider Patrick's friend system a better way of evaluating the market rather than... say... examining incomes, job growth, and other market factors. As for making stuff up, can't you at least fact-check your links before you post them? http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&srchType=A&minAsk=1701&maxAsk=2000&bedrooms=3&nh=51 Your link includes listings from MARTINEZ, and Pleasant Hill like this one, yet you counted it as a CONCORD property, that's what you call disingenuous my friend: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3169948062.html I was not making anything up, I found 65 listings for CONCORD, and nearly HALF of them were $1,700 and under. That tells me that the "profit" you might be getting based on the price of what 3/2 and 4/2 homes go for in Concord is very little after PITI, maintenance, MR/other taxes, and other cost. Who is "making up sh*t" again?

14. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,445 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    14   8:23pm Wed 1 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says No you didn't. You haven't proven anything. You've "claimed" things, but that's totally different than proving. I see. So lets just ignore the fact that you went to great lengths to disprove what you think I've claimed. Lets ignore pretty much the entire conversation. Lets ignore the fact that while the conversation you created was about me to begin with, NOW it's only about me telling the truth about homes that I've bought because EVERY point you attempted based on that premise blew up in your face. And you wonder why people call you a troll. Yes I can prove you wrong by posting one of my rentals. Easily said, easily done. Somehow I don't think you'll admit you were wrong. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1159-Carey-Dr-Concord-CA-94520/18366832_zpid/ You can plug in whatever rent numbers you see fit, but I'm getting $1900 per month rents and have been for 2 years. I could probably push it to $2000 at this point.

15. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,150 comments Premium

    15   8:26pm Wed 1 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   No one will real own up to how fuct things are until they realize they're reloading the fifth time in a single morning and that some of the fallen on the lawn are being eaten by the starving.

16. Massive Housing Inventory Follow Befriend 1 threads 21 comments

    16   5:34am Fri 3 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran_K says iwog, it's not about winning or losing, it's about telling the truth, Why do people have to lie about housing?

17. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 203 comments

    17   2:25pm Fri 3 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Typically, budgeting 5% for vacancy is sufficient and $175/mo maintenance is high, but from previous threads I know that's going to be an argument nobody is going to win. Did you consider in the principal that the owner accrues every year as well? ~2.5k/yr@5.5% ~3.5k/yr@4.5? Growing much larger as time goes on! How about the tax deductions, especially if the owner has an AGI of less than 150k? There's a reason why you'd be buying if the buy rent ratio was $1800/208k, and I think it's still a buy if the rent ratio was $1500/210k. The same reason you'd prefer to buy vs rent is the same reason a investor wants to buy it and rent it out to you. Re: Acquisition costs How do you calculate ROI for this property... Let's say it makes $500/mo or 6k/year after everything. Down payment was 41k and 9k was for renovation Annual ROI = 6/50 = 12% ROI, not including accrued principal. Not too bad?

18. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    18   8:54am Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran, Haven't you noticed that a lot of the space on this blog is on boasting about "how smart and savvy am I"? Do you really wanna spend time to argue on details about it? Even if you "win" an argument like that, you lost because you lost ("wasted") your time doing so.

19. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    19   10:40am Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Randy H says Goran seems to have a bit of trouble understanding Could be. But we don't have a bit of trouble understanding that some people get off on boasting about themselves and their savvy accomplishments in a public forum. Like for instance, you spared us all the gory details about how you are so much smarter and savvy than others from your Marin County Conquest.

20. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,445 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    20   4:41pm Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says Could it be that crime rate, and quality of schools matter with property values? Why didn't you address that? Crime rate is higher. Schools are a long distance away. Rita Rd. homes sell for huge discounts compared to most of Concord including Carey. Homes on Rita have sold in the $110,000-$120,000 range which Carey hasn't seen for over a decade. There, I addressed that. I was ON Rita Rd. yesterday. I drove there with my wife and the first thing she said was "What smells?". I can address anything you bring up. Yet you still refuse to talk about your assertion. YOU SAID that prevailing winds don't blow oil refinery smell into Rita Rd. That was your statement. Yet Rita Rd. is surrounded on three sides by oil refineries. Address THIS!!!!!!!!!!! Stop running, stop changing the subject, why did you make a comment about prevailing winds when you didn't have any fucking idea what you were talking about?