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Case Shiller July 2012


By Buster   Follow   Tue, 31 Jul 2012, 6:16am   13,439 views   259 comments
In Larkspur CA 94939   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/07/31/us/politics/ap-us-home-prices.html?_r=1&hp

Yep, just what I suspected via casual observation. Prices are UP.

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  1. Randy H


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    220   10:42am Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Again to be consistent: paying $250K for an EPA property isn't foolish if you're buying for speculative purposes. But it's not a cash flow investment.

  2. robertoaribas


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    221   11:28am Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    $240,000 for $2500 doesn't interest me as an investment, unless maybe is was an extremely low vacancy high quality rental area. As a place to live that would be a very good deal however, so maybe owner occupants are keeping the prices at those levels.

    I think the AZ market may have been the gift of a lifetime for investors though, so other markets may always seem worse...

  3. Randy H


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    222   2:04pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Yes, the rental yield is not sufficient to invest in East Palo Alto if you apply an appropriate risk factor (or high enough discount rate).

    I don't think a lot of those homes are owner occupied, however, so I think it's really just stickiness plus speculation keeping the prices up. Not hard to believe given that this area is surrounded by mega-pricey SV fortressland.

  4. Goran_K


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    223   2:10pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    It's funny when the people who fought tooth and nail with you, actually end up arguing your point for you.

    Case closed.

  5. iwog


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    224   2:17pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    It's funny when the people who fought tooth and nail with you, actually end up arguing your point for you.

    Case closed.

    Any legitimate point you had got lost in your dishonesty. That's the price you pay.

  6. Goran_K


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    225   2:22pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    Any legitimate point you had got lost in your dishonesty. That's the price you pay.

    iwog, I think the majority of the forum would agree that you aren't exactly an authority on legitimacy and honesty, especially after you had to cry about removing the peer review system on this board after all of your post were being voted off the board for your own dishonesty/embellishment, and you were effectively silenced (for the record it happened to you and Roberto quite a bit).

  7. iwog


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    226   2:30pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    iwog, I think the majority of the forum would agree that you aren't exactly an authority on legitimacy and honesty, especially after you had to cry about removing the peer review system on this board after all of your post were being voted off the board for your own dishonesty/embellishment, and you were effectively silenced (for the record it happened to you and Roberto quite a bit).

    1. All comments were being voted off the board. If I wrote "I'm thinking about a real estate purchase in San Jose" it would be voted off the board. Bringing this up, when you know damn well that it was being used childishly and indiscriminately, is exactly what I'm talking about!!!!!!! You've just demonstrated the dishonesty that you denied and attempted to put on me.

    2. I think the majority of the forum would agree that all sides of an issue should be presented. Your implication that a majority of the forum would question my honesty is dead wrong, in fact you just made it up for use as a personal attack. Again we see a demonstration of you being nothing more than a troll.

    I make a really shitty topic. Roberto makes a really shitting topic. If you can't handle a real estate conversation without turning it back on someone you shouldn't be here. Unfortunately that is pretty much all you do.

  8. Goran_K


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    227   2:33pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    Bringing this up, when you know damn well that it was being used childishly and indiscriminately

    I don't know about the system being used indiscriminately. I'd be willing to wager a $1,000 U.S that a good majority of the post being voted out belonged to you or Roberto.

    iwog says

    I think the majority of the forum would agree that all sides of an issue should be presented.

    Yes, which is why I publicly defended the "easing" of the system so that you and Roberto wouldn't be outright censored. But you have to ask yourself why you and Roberto were disproportionately censored compared to the majority of the people on the board.

  9. Randy H


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    228   2:34pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog stopped making the East Palo Alto case when he realized local facts overrode his otherwise sound calculations.

    Goran did not and apparently continues to bluster about being right. Goran also started calling me names straight out of the gate which added her to my ignore list from the outset.

    I really hate people who hide behind false equivalency.

  10. iwog


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    229   2:38pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    iwog says

    Bringing this up, when you know damn well that it was being used childishly and indiscriminately

    I don't know about the system being used indiscriminately. I'd be willing to wager a $1,000 U.S that a good majority of the post being voted out belonged to you or Roberto.

    Obviously. The most vile, childish, and disgusting board "members" will have no qualms about creating alts and censoring people they disagree with. It only takes three votes so what the fuck do you think you're proving by making the claim that it was just me and Roberto?

    Let me tell you something I do know for a fact because I talked to Patrick about it. The guy responsible for most of those votes has been banned from the site several times for being a site wrecking troll.

    Kinda destroys your point doesn't it.

  11. Goran_K


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    230   2:42pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    Kinda destroys your point doesn't it.

    It would have if he/she was doing it to everybody. But why specifically target you two and no one else?

    AFAIK, thomas.wong, golfplan18, B.A.C.A.H, and numerous other members with strong opinions weren't targeted, but you two were.

    Think about that one for a moment.

  12. iwog


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    231   2:44pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    Yes, which is why I publicly defended the "easing" of the system so that you and Roberto wouldn't be outright censored. But you have to ask yourself why you and Roberto were disproportionately censored compared to the majority of the people on the board.

    Riiiiiight...........I've got to ask myself why a sociopathic site-wrecking troll who calls EVERYONE he disagrees with a lying realtor could possibly create two additional alts for the power rush of being able to censor people who are pro-housing.

    Seriously, are you 6 years old? I don't believe you're this naive. I think you're being disingenuous which again supports my assertion that you're basically a dishonest person who just can't stand to be wrong about anything.

  13. Goran_K


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    232   2:47pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    Riiiiiight...........I've got to ask myself why a sociopathic site-wrecking troll who calls EVERYONE he disagrees with a lying realtor could possibly create two additional alts for the power rush of being able to censor people who are pro-housing.

    There a lots of people on this site who are pro-housing. Yet you were specifically targeted.

    I'm not making any conclusions, but it is something that I think you should ponder for a moment.

  14. iwog


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    233   2:53pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    There a lots of people on this site who are pro-housing. Yet you were specifically targeted.

    I'm not making any conclusions, but it is something that I think you should ponder for a moment.

    As I said before, I make a boring topic but you can't seem to help yourself. You're obsessed with talking about people instead of issues.

    I was specifically targeted by one idiot who has been terminated from this site multiple times. Other than him and his alts, I'm not aware ANYONE tried to censor my posts.

    If you seriously have to ask why someone on the internet is all bent out of shape by someone else on the internet, if you REALLY are pondering this, you should go ask your mom because you've got no net smarts whatsoever.

    Again I think it's all bullshit and you're only being a troll.

  15. robertoaribas


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    234   3:02pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    There a lots of people on this site who are pro-housing. Yet you were specifically targeted.

    I'm not making any conclusions, but it is something that I think you should ponder for a moment.

    two years ago, I used to always rip on IWOG on here... I was convinced the uptick in housing had more to do with the $8000 credit than fundamentals... IWOG to his credit, keeps the argument in a useful form, and digs up lots of research to support his positions. Whether or not you agree with him, that give you something to think about.

    the ONLY person getting his and my posts deleted was ONE troll, using 3 accounts. I teach in a computer lab during the semester, i could log into 20 computers after class, and vote every post of yours down 20 times if I felt that was a reasonable use of my time...so throwing those kind of events as "something he should think about..." well, maybe we don't use the word think in the same manner...

    you, goran, have been very quick to call people liars. That to me, is actually quite a bit more offensive than colorful language, but I guess to each their own...

    You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that...

    so, you insult my education, my looks, my career, etc. which are all actually personal things about me. I may call you a nitwit etc, but honestly, I have no idea who you are... change your name/avatar on here and I'd never connect the two...

  16. Goran_K


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    235   3:10pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that...

    I wasn't insulting you for being 50 and ugly (in all honesty, you're not a bad looking 50 year old). I was trying to show you how silly it is for a 50 year old to call someone a "nitwit" or "assbiter" to try to get their point across, especially someone who claimed to be a lecturer at a major public university. I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

  17. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    236   3:30pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    For some reason Goran thought a house in East Palo Alto was important to this thread. $240,000 is just the asking price.

    According to Zillow, this should rent for $2500 which for $240,000 makes this a no-brainer for cash flow

    Only makes sense if you don't mind getting a pile of cash from questionable sources each month. Good luck to you when you go to evict after they have fallen behind on a few payments. Looking good on paper is only part of the equation for a positive cash flow.

  18. iwog


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    237   4:17pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected  

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    Only makes sense if you don't mind getting a pile of cash from questionable sources each month. Good luck to you when you go to evict after they have fallen behind on a few payments. Looking good on paper is only part of the equation for a positive cash flow.

    There are plenty of reasons not to buy this property, but rental income isn't one of them.

    At 100% financed @ 4%, PITI is $1500. If you can't cover your expenses with $1000 a month and give yourself a profit with someone else's money, you're doing it wrong.

  19. Bigsby


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    238   4:27pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    iwog says

    Bringing this up, when you know damn well that it was being used childishly and indiscriminately

    I don't know about the system being used indiscriminately. I'd be willing to wager a $1,000 U.S that a good majority of the post being voted out belonged to you or Roberto.

    iwog says

    I think the majority of the forum would agree that all sides of an issue should be presented.

    Yes, which is why I publicly defended the "easing" of the system so that you and Roberto wouldn't be outright censored. But you have to ask yourself why you and Roberto were disproportionately censored compared to the majority of the people on the board.

    Probably because there are/were more than enough very childish bears on here who pressed dislike based on the person rather than the point made. Actually, scratch the probably part because that is what happened.

  20. robertoaribas


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    239   4:29pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

    Yes, I entirely agree. sometimes I just like to be childish... try it, its fun!

  21. Bigsby


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    240   4:33pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    iwog says

    Riiiiiight...........I've got to ask myself why a sociopathic site-wrecking troll who calls EVERYONE he disagrees with a lying realtor could possibly create two additional alts for the power rush of being able to censor people who are pro-housing.

    There a lots of people on this site who are pro-housing. Yet you were specifically targeted.

    I'm not making any conclusions, but it is something that I think you should ponder for a moment.

    Why does he need to ponder it? Iwog and Roberto are the two most visible individuals who attempt to counter balance the very bearish nature of this site, so.....

  22. Bigsby


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    241   4:36pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    robertoaribas says

    You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that...

    I wasn't insulting you for being 50 and ugly (in all honesty, you're not a bad looking 50 year old). I was trying to show you how silly it is for a 50 year old to call someone a "nitwit" or "assbiter" to try to get their point across, especially someone who claimed to be a lecturer at a major public university. I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

    Presumably someone of your age is allowed to insinuate all sorts without any comeback.

  23. Goran_K


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    242   4:39pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

    For instance, in the Penthouse November 2011 issue, 12% of men polled said that they didn't consider tasting another man's semen a "homosexual" action as long as it was during the act of cunnilingus. Ponder upon that for a second. Your assumptions will not line up with the stated facts, that's why opinion is not a reliable metric in most cases.

  24. Randy H


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    243   4:39pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    There are plenty of reasons not to buy this property, but rental income isn't one of them.

    iwog, dude, stop while you have the moral high ground and take it on more local folks' word that rental income is NOT a reason to buy this property. Seriously, you don't know what you're talking about in that part of town. NFW you are going to go deal with those tenants, nor is anyone else except for the kind of guys you're going to have to pay all your net income to as enforcers.

    yes, that bad.

  25. Randy H


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    244   4:40pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    and that's the reason people who own those addresses as rentals prefer to let them sit vacant 3-5 months rather than try to hustle it. You'll end up a statistic.

  26. Bigsby


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    245   4:46pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

    The insinuate aspect relates to the personal swipes you were making. And you can claim to be data driven all you like, but it seems to me that you were misrepresenting the data you used and arguing with someone who had far more knowledge about the area being discussed simply because you didn't like the fact he demonstrated that you were mistaken. Perhaps it's not Iwog and Roberto who need to take a look at themselves.

  27. Goran_K


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    246   4:49pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby says

    that you were misrepresenting the data you used

    I don't represent data, at all. I simply find the data. You can't represent something that stands by itself like data does.

  28. Bigsby


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    247   4:50pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

    For instance, in the Penthouse November 2011 issue, 12% of men polled said that they didn't consider tasting another man's semen a "homosexual" action as long as it was during the act of cunnilingus. Ponder upon that for a second. Your assumptions will not line up with the stated facts, that's why opinion is not a reliable metric in most cases.

    Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

  29. Goran_K


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    248   4:51pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby says

    Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

    Precisely.

  30. Bigsby


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    249   4:51pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby says

    that you were misrepresenting the data you used

    I don't represent data, at all. I simply find the data. You can't represent something that stands by itself like data does.

    You are joking right. You posted a house that had nothing to do with the area under discussion and deliberately tried to mislead readers. That is misrepresenting data.

  31. Bigsby


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    250   4:52pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby says

    Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

    Precisely.

    Then you are deluded because anyone who reads the thread knows that is not what you did.

  32. Goran_K


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    251   4:56pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    I think the best proof that I am not "deluded" was that long after I left the thread, two housing boosters actually started arguing my point about value, and one even claimed that the value and numbers didn't calculate to much profit which was my original point (although admittedly iwog is still fighting the good fight).

  33. iwog


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    252   5:01pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

    Total bullshit.

    Rita Rd. is full of homes that sold for $110,000-$120,000.

    How many times did you acknowledge those sales? ZERO!!!!!

    How many times did you post over and over and over again that you found ONE HOUSE that sold for $185,000?

    If this thread proves anything it's that you completely ignore any fact that disagrees with your assessment.

  34. Bigsby


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    253   5:03pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    I think the best proof that I am not "deluded" was that long after I left the thread, two housing boosters actually started arguing my point about value, and one even claimed that the value and numbers didn't calculate to much profit which my my originally point (although admittedly iwog is still fighting the good fight).

    I've read the thread. The argument was centred around that one street not the idea of 'value,' so you are again misrepresenting what went on. Anyway, this is getting rather tedious. People are free to read the thread and see what was discussed. I read it and Iwog demonstrated you were mistaken. There's nothing wrong with that - the poblem was that you couldn't just hold up your hands and admit it. Instead you tried to bullshit your way out of it, and no, what you did wasn't driven by just wanting to present data.

  35. Goran_K


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    254   5:04pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    Total bullshit.

    Rita Rd. is full of homes that sold for $110,000-$120,000.

    How many times did you acknowledge those sales? ZERO!!!!!

    How many times did you post over and over and over again that you found ONE HOUSE that sold for $185,000?

    If this thread proves anything it's that you completely ignore any fact that disagrees with your assessment.

  36. Goran_K


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    255   5:05pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby says

    I've read the thread. The argument was centred around that one street not the idea of 'value,' so you are again misrepresenting what went on. Anyway, this is getting rather tedious. People are free to read the thread and see what was discussed. I read it and Iwog demonstrated you were mistaken. There's nothing wrong with that - the poblem was that you couldn't just hold up your hands and admit it. Instead you tried to bullshit your way out of it, and no, what you did wasn't driven by just wanting to present data.

    That's your opinion and you are free to express it even if it is wrong.

  37. Bigsby


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    256   5:09pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Bigsby says

    I've read the thread. The argument was centred around that one street not the idea of 'value,' so you are again misrepresenting what went on. Anyway, this is getting rather tedious. People are free to read the thread and see what was discussed. I read it and Iwog demonstrated you were mistaken. There's nothing wrong with that - the poblem was that you couldn't just hold up your hands and admit it. Instead you tried to bullshit your way out of it, and no, what you did wasn't driven by just wanting to present data.

    That's your opinion and you are free to express it even if it is wrong.

    Wrong how?

  38. Randy H


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    257   7:48pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    I have concluded goran is the same troll that's been here for the past 6-7 years under varying handles. Too many coincidental behavioral patterns.

    My real question is, what is this meta-moderation thing you guys are talking about which was apparently abandoned? That sounds like a great idea. I'm sure with some tweaking it could work. If it's good enough for /. it's good enough for p.net.

  39. iwog


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    258   8:22pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Randy H says

    My real question is, what is this meta-moderation thing you guys are talking about which was apparently abandoned? That sounds like a great idea. I'm sure with some tweaking it could work. If it's good enough for /. it's good enough for p.net.

    It can't work because it's always the sociopaths with no life who are willing to get 20 alts, stalk and troll an individual, and move heaven and earth to get their fictional wrongs righted.

    Patrick would have to track individual URLs, screen out proxies, and spend more time than it would be worth policing it.

    I like the thread moderator idea. If someone wants a reasonable conversation, he just needs to start a new thread and he can delete all the trolls.

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    259   9:53pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Damnit with your empirical data, iwog! So patrick.net isn't quite at a scale where meta-mod will work because on really determined whack-a-mole can subvert the system. So the answer is active-moderation until we can deliver unto Patrick another 250,000 readers per day.

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