http://elibroad.com/blog/2012/8/3/the-housing-market-will-rise-again.html
The housing market will rise again
By LeahE Follow Fri, 3 Aug 2012, 1:00pm 4,706 views 52 comments
Watch (1) Share
Quote
Permalink Like Dislike « First « Previous Viewing Comments 13-52 of 52 Last » See most liked comments
|
LeahE is moderator of this thread. |
Follow
Befriend
2,826 comments
Monterey, CA
iwog says
Iwog, Iwog, that is the kind of effort I'd expect from Goran.
Follow
Befriend (8)
38 threads
2,006 comments
Pleasanton, CA
Premium
iwog says
Because they have been issuing credit as silly as US does. 10 years ago in Brazil mortgage rates were so crazy only cash buyers could afford. Now, they have opened up the supply to many. Brazilians are slowly going into the debt hole that American's are trying to climb out. Does it mean the place is actually valued at 350K? Absolutely not.
A lot of countries in the world are jumping on the easy credit bandwagon and making the same mistake and will pay the price as well. Good luck to all the greedy people out there.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
RentingForHalfTheCost says
1/2price-renting, can't you see, you are falling into iwog's trap. There are no 800sqft condos in Sao Paulo for $350K, unless they have hidden treasure under the bathroom tiles. Somebody here said that condos in Moscow are more expensive than in San Francisco. That's not true, either. You can get a decent condos in Moscow for less than $100K, but don't check the prices on the internet, unless you can speak Russian. The prices you can see on the internet are just for foreigners, like iwog. In reality, the actual prices you will get, in any 2nd/3rd world country is what you can get on the ground, if you speak the language, and you can negotiate the right deal.
Follow
Befriend (3)
13 threads
2,216 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
Hey San Pablo flippers, I've got one for ya!!!
Follow
Befriend (23)
55 threads
3,793 comments
Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
iwog, you know I've lived in brazil right?
I'm sure you can find a 10 million dollar condo in Sao Paulo, but that doesn't really say much about the market there...
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
dunnross says
And then there's reality:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Latin-America/Brazil/Price-History
800 sq ft. is 74.3 sq. meters. Considering this is a table of average apartment values, there is a significant number of $350,000 condos. In fact the average for Southeast and West is around $270,000. ($2 reals is $1 dollar US)
My ORIGINAL point, before things got sidetracked into gold toilet idiocy, is that a very specific set of circumstances that is blamed for causing the United States bubble doesn't apply to almost every other country with high real estate prices.
So how about Brazil?
So how about Canada?
So how about Australia?
So how about China?
So how about Europe?
If everything is a bubble, nothing is.
Follow
Befriend (8)
38 threads
2,006 comments
Pleasanton, CA
Premium
iwog says
Not following the logic here. Everything is in a bubble. Globally we are living beyond our means. Many have just followed the greed and idiocy of the American bankers and realtors. Hence, why we are in a global crisis right now. House values are a big part of the blame. Not just in the US, but everywhere. Gov'ts (Brasil, Australia, Canada, Europe, etc.) are all playing money games just like the US trying to keep the dingy floating. Good luck is all I say. Down we go.
Follow
Befriend (16)
764 threads
7,709 comments
Boca Raton, FL
Premium
In order for the housing market to rise again, prices must plummet to 1960s levels. If that happens, people can once again be confident that the market price of any house they buy will rise steadily over the course of decades. Only then will house owning be attractive to the young.
Follow
Befriend (23)
55 threads
3,793 comments
Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
"what this country needs is a really good 5 cent cigar" U.S. Vice President Thomas R. Marshall
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
Iwog, you've just discredit yourself completely. Even your own cherry picking of the most expensive areas of Sao Paolo doesn't even come close to the $350K which you pulled out of your ar*ss. 6020R/m^2 * 74.3m^2 / 2.032 = $220K not even close to your postulated $350K. So, instead of apologizing for being wrong, you call me an idiot. A typical Iwog - the weasel tactic.
Now since you've picked the most expensive district in Sao Palo, let me pick the most expensive district in San Francisco (I am not even talking about NY, which - the city you should really be comparing Sao Paolo to), and what do I see:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/425-1st-St-94105/unit-3304/home/39821111
$688K for 605 sqft
Or
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/199-New-Montgomery-St-94105/unit-1501/home/12401527
$1M for 971 sqft
Hmm. Let's see, and who is the idiot now?
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
dunnross says
You are. While I posted averages, you went and looked up the most expensive home you could possibly find. WTF is wrong with you?
btw I wasn't wrong. There are hundreds of homes in Sao Paolo selling for $350,000 and much much more.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
Open house at Iwog's $350K condo in Sao Paolo:
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
See? You can't even concentrate on your own topic.
It's ridiculous to post SINGLE HOMES in San Francisco after I posted AVERAGES IN Sao Paolo but you did it anyway. I don't think you're all that interested in getting to the truth.
About anything.
Follow
Befriend (9)
70 threads
930 comments
San Leandro, CA
iwog says
I doubt whether women are credit worthy everywhere today. But THE MOST PROFITABLE INVENTION of ALL TIME generated enough cash flow to create typical OVER EXUBERANCE all around the world. All the financial problems the rest of the world is experiencing now is traced back to mortgages purchased over the last 20 - 30 years. It behooves me to believe that values will return to the way values were established prior to the price insanity. Buyers make value ? No Buyers = No Value.
Do ya think Banks learned their lesson on investing in overvalued property ?
If they knew prices where low, Loans would be simple to fund.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Here's the problem.
Everyone thinks that the United States circa 1946-1980 is the norm. That's why real estate valuations seem so high.
Post war America saw huge new tracts of housing developed during a period of rapid monetary expansion, single wage households, and one of the most favorable tax regimes to the middle class that the world has ever seen. This is no exaggeration.
We're entering a new era that has far more in common with 19th century England than 21st century America. Much of the world is already there. Brazil doesn't really have a middle class, in fact Brazil has one of the highest Gini (wealth disparity) indexes of any nation on earth.
Yet they still manage extremely expensive real estate in their largest cities while most of the country is in poverty.
It's not a bubble, it's the end result of wealth disparity and Republican policies. New York, the San Francisco Bay Area, Boston, Miami, and parts of Los Angeles are going to do fine and continue to host the aristocracy at the expense of everyone else.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
Iwog. You are full of it. You didn't pick the average area. You picked the most expensive area which is 6020R. You see that there are others on there with only 3000R. Now, 6020R translates to $270/sqft, where in San Francisco an average (yes average) prices for the most expensive area is way over $1000/sqft.
Follow
Befriend (2)
3 threads
549 comments
Madison, WI
Lol, it's the amount of money swimming around, combined with low interest rates, Iwog says houses are cheap, well they kind of are, and you have to ask yourself, well, who's got all the money, if I don't. Investors?, they juiced the RE market, and then eventually left when the bubble popped, they came back fast and furious to clean up the damage they caused, you of course, were locked into your mortgage so you were stuck holding the bag, and that's the way it works.
It's all the other inputs relative to my income which is decreasing in real terms that makes it not worth it to buy/own a home. Many people are just not destined to have more, besides not everyone can be rich/have it all, the system is not designed that way and never was.
Follow
Befriend (1)
22 threads
469 comments
San Jose, CA
Bingo! In Moscow walls are also full 2 foot thick!
Follow
Befriend (13)
102 threads
3,764 comments
It's currently too high, it looks like a giant sucker game at this point. Prices are at 2005 right now. And if my wife let me I'd put our place for sale and rent instead for next 5 years.
Yesterday evening I was helping out a friend do a basic preliminary inspection. I tell you what, I saw electrical service that was a fire hazard, all original from the 1950's. Improper electrical hookups, structural damage, water damage, etc... and it was all for the low price of 480,000... and needed another 100,000+ in repairs. And that's in a low income neighborhood.
Smart money isn't going to go there, huge gamble, waiting for a clock to strike 12 without knowing the current time isn't how i'd invest.
Michigan and FL are much better places to put your money.
Follow
Befriend (12)
140 threads
1,355 comments
Emeryville, CA
REpro says
In Russia, walls build you!
Follow
Befriend (3)
12 threads
600 comments
Ca housing is old ugly and way overpriced. 500,000 shacks everywhere. Insane median in the 300,000, those are yuck. The newer stuff is way outta town increasing commute expenses and taking time outta your day. I rented a great apt in burbank with pool jacuzzi and view for .5% of the average ugly house with no pool. Rent in CA, buy elsewhere.
DON'T LIVE UGLY
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
dunnross says
No response to this one, ha, iwog. I will take your silence as a sign of consent.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
dunnross says
And I never want to hear you saying that houses in the Bay Area are cheaper than in any 3rd world country.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
dunnross says
I've never uttered that sentence in my life. Stop making up BS.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,545 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
David Losh says
How much leverage can you do when interest rate was at 18%? How much leverage can you do when interest rate is at 3.5%?
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
If real-estate in the US is cheaper than in Brazil, then why is a 2nd rate city like San Francisco, almost 4 times more expensive than the biggest and the most expensive city in Brazil?
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
2,497 comments
iwog says
No of course not. You are much too advanced a quibler to actually say that. What you said was:
iwog says
So you are by implication (not said of course, IWOG always has to be able to state "I never said that") comparing the entire US housing market, all 4 million sq miles of it, to the highest price (at least in gringo pricing) district in the largest most expensive city in Brazil. That's certainly a valid comparison. NOT.
Follow
Befriend (4)
28 threads
776 comments
Interesting argument but I think what really went on say in the 70's was this.
As people demand more equal rights it meant that there was a huge increase in the labor pool. This drove wages down instead of up. More potential customers means more demand and thus housing went up.
But at the same point a bubble can be found everywhere when it is not sustainable. Suburbia is not sustainable around the world from a resource perspective. Having said that even if it was it still depends on future generations being larger than current once.
There are already arguments that China will start to have a decrease in their population due to the "missing girls" situation. Future generations might decide to cut back on things that are the norm in suburbia...the house, the car the 2.4 kids etc. If they decide to live in a city that would increase urban prices but cause demand for things like cars to drop like a rock.
It also reminds me of Brazil in that supposedly the upper housing end of Miami is being bought by them. Considering how much lower Miami prices went and how Brazil boomed it's easy to see.
Follow
Befriend
4 threads
530 comments
People, I'm still working on the 3:1 Mortgage:Income ratio of antiquity. Thus, I'd bought in western Mass [not greater Boston], currently worth $250K (my price was $210K around the time of purchase) and it's paid off, as my income arose during those years, esp the last year when my hedge fund consulting work netted me the remainder of the balance.
Today, the only equivalent places, where the job market matches the housing prices (for workers, not just executives) are in the Texas cities of SA, Austin, Houston, and Dallas. Thus, if I decide to move, I'll avoid former bubble territories: Boston, NYC, DC, and Cali for work. In the northeast, the urban areas, which have corrected are in the Delaware Valley.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
bob2356 says
Actually this shows how badly you missed my point.
TMAC: "The United States Bubble was caused by X"
Iwog: "X didn't occur in Brazil so why are prices so high?"
Instead of reading what I actually wrote, you and dummross decided to ignore a point VERY clearly stated:
iwog says
....and imply things that weren't there. Why?
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
2,497 comments
iwog says
Try reading what other people write. Because prices aren't so high in Brazil. Only in one very, very small and very expensive part of Brazil that you are claiming is representative of the entire counties housing market. I could look at the upper east side and say look the US is a country of of multi million dollar condos, what a place. The streets must be paved with gold. I seem to remember you made the same argument about Argentina. You selected the most high end area of Buenos Aires and said wow look at housing prices in Argentina. That's just silly.
Yes Brazil has had a boom, the economy has grown like mad.
Follow
Befriend (4)
25 threads
1,520 comments
Laguna Beach, CA
Premium
iwog says
Umm, because Brazil's economy is going in the exact opposite direction of the U.S economy and has been booming for the past decade. Their entire economy has grown by almost 5% a year since 2003, and foreign direct investment has topped over $200 billion in the past 6 years, and their unemployment dipped below 5% in February. In fact, in 2010, Brazil attracted 1.5 million foreign workers. There is a huge petro engineering boom in Brazil right now, as well as in tech.
Have you ever been to Brazil? I was there in 1999 and in 2008, and the difference is visibly startling.
But good luck discussing a place you've never even stepped foot into before, I'm sure you'll convince half the people in this thread of your awesome understanding of the Brazilian economy and housing market.
Follow
Befriend
15 threads
2,839 comments
Rin says
and so are employers.. they too are expanding in Texas.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,546 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
David Losh says
I don't know how long you've been here, or if you're someone's alt, but every single bearish prediction made on this board in 2009 failed miserably.
It was CRASH CRASH CRASH CRASH CRASH instead of 3 years of a flat market followed by a new boom.
It's possible that Brazil is in a bubble and it will pop, but Canada was supposed to be in a bubble too.........I'm still waiting..........
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
87 comments
Dan8267 says
Exactly.
Follow
Befriend
7 threads
87 comments
KILLERJANE says
The ugliest houses on the market for ten times the price and twice the crime. Got to love California.
Follow
Befriend (4)
28 threads
776 comments
Frankly I don't see the USA market going up anytime soon in a significant percentage outside of a few places
Granted Detroit is up 16%
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/michigan/detroit/
SF up 40%
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-francisco/ the inventory in sf is so so low
Follow
Befriend (4)
25 threads
1,520 comments
Laguna Beach, CA
Premium
At least Brazil has solid fundamentals driving it's housing prices, the economy is growing over there.
In the U.S we have the exact opposite, a crumbling economy about to go into another recession. Our housing market is driven by speculation at the moment.
Follow
Befriend (4)
331 threads
919 comments
David Losh,
Looking at the inflation & income ,I'm glad the Dems & Reps have kept the destruction on an steadily increasing rate. LOL
Follow
Befriend (4)
25 threads
1,520 comments
Laguna Beach, CA
Premium
David Losh says
Ironic but true.
Also in general, I think most laymen don't pay attention to how well many of the South American economies have done over the past decade. Brazil is on the cusp of becoming a Top 5 economy in the world (they weren't even in the Top 10 in 1998), and yet you have guys like iwog wondering why there is price appreciation in housing over there. It's incredible.