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"Housing is only about 40% through its reversion process."

By Massive Housing Inventory   Follow   Mon, 6 Aug 2012, 6:43am   3,473 views   31 comments
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Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist & Strategist David Rosenburg;

"The deflation in housing is going to continue. Housing is only about 40% through its reversion process. In fact, along with housing, the entire household debt deleveraging process is still in progress and still has a tremendous way to go. This deleveraging cycle will remain a dead-weight drag on the economy for quite a long time."

http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/tag/capital-preservation/

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1. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 334 threads 919 comments

   1   11:14am Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Great link. "household debt deleveraging", no problem I'll just make minimum payments on my credit card. LOL

2. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   2   1:06pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Sure,it is going to keep reversing until $ printing machines stops.

3. pazuzu Follow Befriend 6 threads 198 comments

   3   3:24pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Yup, this housing crash is nowhere near over regardless of how much mindless quacking is heard. "It seems very unlikely only five years into such enormous, structural shifts in the US economy that the repricing process is over in housing. At minimum, I expect the median price of single-family existing homes to revert to the 2000 level of $147,000, with the strong possibility of an overshoot to the $125,000 level. This process will take SEVERAL MORE YEARS." http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/79376/when-qe-finally-fails Buy now, cry later.

4. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

   4   4:30pm Mon 6 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (8)   Dislike   WHY DO YOU PEOPLE EVEN GET UP IN THE MORNING???? Seriously, you’ve got accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative don’t mess with mr. in between!!! Buy as many houses as you can and rent them to doomer loser’s like yourselves and you will be RICH IN NO TIME. BAZOOMBA

5. pazuzu Follow Befriend 6 threads 198 comments

   5   3:56pm Tue 7 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   "The fed can only postpone the impending economic storm a little bit" http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2012/08/07/n-el-erian-fed-recession.cnnmoney?iid=HP_Highlight Anyone want to guess what "a little bit" means? I place my bets on just after the election.

6. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,379 comments Victorville, CA Premium

   6   5:27pm Tue 7 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Housing shit the bed, and we still working on gettin all the stains out. Bobby Shiller says it's probably better off if you keep renting from Jody for a spell... "Recent research by Robert Shiller indicates sounding the all-clear for a housing recovery is premature since the home-price rebound, if that's what it is, doesn't yet have momentum - which is the most powerful driver of home prices. As he notes in today's WSJ, momentum is a modestly weak force in the stock market but the most important driver of the 'feedback loop' in home-price increases (followed by unemployment). "It could be a bottom, I just don't know", he adds pointing to the large overhang of homes that are either in foreclosure of near it - which would push prices down further if they were ever released to the market (wanting to see momentum carry into the Spring to be convinced). Critically, he sees bubbles once again forming in some areas, commenting that investors have been "primed to think speculatively" adding that "There was a change in our mindset. Now we start thinking about the housing market as like the stock market." Our question is, if the increasingly speculative housing market is part of the CPI basket, why then is the stock market not also part of what is now an inflationary basket chock full of QE-sensitive assets." http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2012/08/06/is-this-the-end-of-the-housing-bust-not-so-fast-says-shiller/ IOW the same numbuts what are pouring $$ $ into they 401K are the ones buying primary residences.

7. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,379 comments Victorville, CA Premium

   7   5:31pm Tue 7 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   duckhead says WHY DO YOU PEOPLE EVEN GET UP IN THE MORNING???? Seriously, you’ve got accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative don’t mess with mr. in between!!! Buy as many houses as you can and rent them to doomer loser’s like yourselves and you will be RICH IN NO TIME. BAZOOMBA What he said...

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   8   8:30pm Tue 7 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (3)   Protected   David Losh says Deleveraging is real. Holding a mortgage, no matter how low the interest, is bad. I hold a mortgage on a property that earns 120% of my monthly loan payment in rents. The house is 100% financed and I have $0 of my own money invested. In 15 years the home will be owned free and clear and all it will cost me is a little management time. How exactly is this bad? (note: 3 years down, 12 more years to go. One of the benefits of ignoring the housing bears in 2009)

9. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,379 comments Victorville, CA Premium

   9   5:41pm Wed 8 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   David Losh says I can rent it out to recoup some of the interest I had to pay, or more likely sell it, so I can trade up. You're not going to be trading up anytime soon junior.

10. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 334 threads 919 comments

    10   8:37pm Wed 8 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I can see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen.

11. gbenson Follow Befriend 16 threads 389 comments

    11   12:37am Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   There is an obvious floor in prices, and much of the low end inventory that's hitting the market is at that floor. ( So they ain't going lower) When my net income on renting a property out is 10% (I can recoup the purchase price in 10 years after all expenses), then investors will buy and it will hold the price. By this measure, mid-range and some higher end properties still have a ways to fall, but low end properties are pretty near bottom.

12. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,379 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    12   1:37am Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   HEY YOU says an see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen. You don't need a crystal ball -- just basic numeracy will do.

13. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (16) 764 threads 7,710 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

    13   7:23am Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   HEY YOU says I can see into the future but I'm not telling anyone about what's about to happen. Spoiler: We all die.

14. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    14   8:02am Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   David Losh says It's not a bad thing. You just have to remember that the property is worth less than you paid for it, and rents will decline. Wrong and wrong. It's worth more than I paid for it and I've raised rents twice. First $1800, then $1850 and now it earns $1900. I'm almost certain I could get $2000 today because of skyrocketing rents, but I'm in a 2 year lease.

15. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,215 comments 31 male Premium

    15   6:55pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   why do people think that if you buy a house, and hold on to it long enough, it will magically appreciate in value? That's pretty backwards assed, when you stop and think about that over a long enough stretch of time,,,,,,

16. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,220 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    16   7:41pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   errc says Put that house on a postage stamp lot in Atherton or Woodside and it'd STILL get at least a mil

17. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,215 comments 31 male Premium

    17   8:04pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   and in ten years, it will certainly be worth ten million!

18. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

    18   8:39pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   errc says why do people think that if you buy a house, and hold on to it long enough, it will magically appreciate in value? That's pretty backwards assed, when you stop and think about that over a long enough stretch of time,,,,,, Don't you know..... everyone buys a house and lives in it for at least 30 years... then they are rich when it's paid off free and clear!! That's said all the time on this site, so it must be true.... I read it on the internets you know :)

19. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    19   8:50pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   errc says why do people think that if you buy a house, and hold on to it long enough, it will magically appreciate in value? That's pretty backwards assed, when you stop and think about that over a long enough stretch of time,,,,,, Ever since Y2K... that has been the ongoing thinking ! I certainly dont know where they came up with this nonsense.

20. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

    20   8:52pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   thomaswong.1986 says Ever since Y2K... that has been the ongoing thinking ! I certainly dont know where they came up with this nonsense. Isn't that what every realtor tells you to get you to buy??

21. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    21   8:54pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says Don't you know..... everyone buys a house and lives in it for at least 30 years... then they are rich when it's paid off free and clear!! Bubble prices were about selling their home and early retirement. Not sure how buyers could fall for paying for both! Why would anyone want to pay 200-300% vs few years prior.

22. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    22   8:57pm Thu 9 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Call it Crazy says Isn't that what every realtor tells you to get you to buy?? yes, some crazy thing about "forced savings"... fast forward.. no savings there, but the exact opposite. hey what happened to 401K,IRA, cash savings accounts, investment , etc...

23. Massive Housing Inventory Follow Befriend 1 threads 21 comments

    23   3:56pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Big Sur/Carmel Street Report Lots of inventory, for sale signs growing like weeds, prices are slipping but no bites because prices are still much much too high. Very few sales. It's going to be a long winter.

24. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    24   7:25pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Massive Housing Inventory says Big Sur/Carmel Street Report Lots of inventory, for sale signs growing like weeds, prices are slipping but no bites because prices are still much much too high. Very few sales. It's going to be a long winter. Yep, the enormous total of 29 properties listed on Redfin for below $1m for the Carmel, Big Sur and Carmel Valley area. And that includes 11 that are pending. It's a veritable tsunami.

25. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    25   9:10pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentalWatch says Per movoto, there is over 1000 houses for sale in the Carmel area. Given the inflated prices, this should be no surprise. Strange. I just went to Movoto and typed in 93923 and SFH and got a grand total of 48 results (actually 100 if you untick the 'has photos' box)- with no maximum price. Redfin shows 213 listings doing the same search. Edit: Just done the search again on Movoto and it's showing 162 listings. Don't know what's up with the site. Still rather a long way from over a 1000 though.

26. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    26   4:47am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentalWatch says You "typed in 93923"???? This is how you're going to misrepresent this one too? Nice try. It's called a zip code. Guess where for?

27. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    27   4:52am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   So let me get this straight, your response to being shown to be a liar about the situation in Carmel is to post up a graph that shows you don't know where 2004 is. Well done.

28. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    28   5:32am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   RentalWatch says Obfuscate you coward! That is just another one of their ACTS.

29. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    29   5:33am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   READ AN LEARN MORONS It has all happened before, here is the story they don't want you to know about. Let's see the fault found with this FACT of the all too conveniently forgotten REAL ESTATE BOOM AND COLLAPSE OF 1926 http://www.library.hbs.edu/hc/crises/forgotten.html

30. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    30   10:50pm Wed 3 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JodyChunder says ritically, he sees bubbles once again forming in some areas, commenting that investors have been "primed to think speculatively" adding that "There was a change in our mindset. Now we start thinking about the housing market as like the stock market." Our question is, if the increasingly speculative housing market is part of the CPI basket, why then is the stock market not also part of what is now an inflationary basket chock full of QE-sensitive assets." Bingo! as usual, Shiller hits it!

31. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    31   11:08pm Wed 3 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   and yet here we are, 2 months later, and prices are climbing slowly...