WatchSee graphs. The 'winner take all' Romney is now offered below .40. Of course this could be just one or two Romney investors getting out (it's not exactly a liquid market).
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html
I think by the time the debates come, ROmney will be ticking up (but be worse off than now).
Expectations for his debate performance will be so extremely low, that he will exceed expectations by not losing the debates as badly as expected.
So I've changed my betting recommendations. Previously I suggested that people who want to bet on ROmney should do it right after the debates. MY current view is that since he now has taken on Ryan, the low for Romney will be shortly before the debates.
But the uptick he gets from not losing as badly as expected won't be nearly enough to propel him to victory in the election.
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I thought the convention bump was supposed to peak the weekend after the convention. Maybe people are already anticipating the democratic convention.
Romney was up to nearly .42 in anticipation of the convention. But traded .36 today and is now offered under .38.
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I don't believe Romney is good for America.
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Someone got 2:1 today, betting on Romney winning (see link to quotes above).
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Ross, CA
marcus says
I'd take that.
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Check out the quotes at the link above. You can open an account for up to $500.
I think you will be able to do better as it get's closer to the debates. It will probably be "buy the rumor, sell the fact," where people will over anticipate the degree to which Obama will own Romney in the debates. Romney will lose the debates, but not as badly as anticipated.
At least that would be a very likely outcome.
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Another observation or two. The republican (Romney) bump after their convention gave them a "lower high" where as the democrats (Obama) bump is looking to be a "higher high." Translation: the trend is my friend.
At present, the offer price on Romney is .334, essntially you are (at least for now) getting 2:1 odds if you want to bet on Romney.
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I guess it depends where you pull your graph from......
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marcus says
It has, you just need to get your information from the correct sources...
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All the charts I've seen that are worth anything show Obama winning. But we knew that already anyway.
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Obama's going to win. This is almost entirely due to the undecided voters agreeing on the fact that they hate rich people. Romeny would stand a better chance if he was only moderately wealthy, and not filthy rich.
I hate both parties equally, but it's obvious who will win, barring some unfornuate event that puts Obama in a very bad light before elections.
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Call it Crazy says
Rasmussen is the laughingstock of pollsters. Are you calling that a "correct" source and the intratrade odds a poor source?
Really? Does the term confirmation bias mean anything to you?
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tatupu70 says
Yet, pulling charts from the University of Iowa, a predominantly Blue state, holds so much more credibility, right???
......"When it comes to progressive political action, Iowa is anything but the sleepy state that popular stereotypes perpetuate. Iowa is hot liberal territory, with more good progressive organizations per capita than any other state I can think of."
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tatupu70 says
+1
StoutFiles says
Sad but true. I think the Dums and the Repubes did some back room deal to put Romney up as the Scarecrow. It's the worst "lesser of two evils" vote in presidential campaign history.
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Call it Crazy says
I don't think you understant what intrade is. Here is a quick primer:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-02-23/intrade-where-politics-meets-the-market?track=sticky
The bottom line is that, as a prediction tool, intrade overwhelmingly outperforms Rasmussen. You shouldn't even mention them in the same sentence.
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tatupu70 says
Is this one of your baseless quotes again or do you have facts to back it up?
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Call it Crazy says
I think the last link references the performance, but I can find others if you'd like.
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Rasmussen:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/#more-3235
"While waiting for the remaining results to trickle in from states like Colorado and Alaska, I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.
Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.
Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year."
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tatupu70 says
Funny you would quote fivethirtyeight... (Nate Silver)...
...."At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were eight national tracking polls and many other polls conducted on a regular basis. Polling analyst Nate Silver reviewed the tracking polls and said that while none were perfect, and Rasmussen was "frequently reputed to have a Republican lean", the "house effect" in their tracking poll was small and "with its large sample size and high pollster rating [it] would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."[51] After the election, Rasmussen's poll was rated as the most accurate, when compared to various other final pre-election polls."
...."2000 Progressive Review conducted a review of polling accuracy in the 2000 presidential primaries. The review ranked Rasmussen Research number one in accuracy."
...."2004 In the 2004 presidential election, "Rasmussen...beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins," according to Slate magazine."
In 2004, Slate said they “publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen” polls because of the methodology. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the most accurate."
......"2008 According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."[39] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there."
*************************
So Tat, want to try again????
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http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Politics/300~2A~+U~2E~S~2E~+2012+Presidential+Election/Winning+Party/Lines.aspx
Hey, you can yell at one another about which team you are rooting for all you'd like, but there is a market for the actual event taking place in November, and people putting their money where their mouth is, have obama currently as a 1/2 favorite,,,and romney coming back at +180
Those silly intrade/iowa little play money websites with their 500 limits are fun to use for the cat fight and all, but the big boys that pony up the big money have this election(rightfully so imo) priced as obama a heavy favorite. As I've been saying all along, it will only become more expensive to wager on obama as the election draws near, simply because big money players don't like tieing up their bankroll for so long
If I had interest in romney winning, id be advertising the polls that show him behind. Fire up the fan base in those swing states whose electoral votes will decide this election. The last thing you'd want is the false sense of security that comes with unjustified confidence. I wager on all types of events, and I approach it as investing, hence the need to remove myself emotionally from my bankrolls directions. My personal approach dictates that I only play underdogs (plus money sides), as I've found it extremely hard to be right >50% of the time. I'm fine with being right 42% of the time, if my average price is +180 as romneys is, that's a heealthy ROI
Everything has its price, @+180, id still stay far away
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Call it Crazy says
Nope. Your quotes don't refute mine. When you look at all their polling for the last 21 days before the 2008 election, there was a bias.
When you look specifically at their last poll, the bias is mostly gone.
I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
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tatupu70 says
Boy, you will really squeeze it down to the smallest possible detail just to try and win a point... why not squeeze it down to the last 36 minutes or something to try and "spin" your facts.
tatupu70 says
So, based on facts over the last 12 years Rasmussen has called it closer than any other pollster... care to retract the above??
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Call it Crazy says
Once again, you miss the point. Rasmussen is consistently biased with their polls until they put out their final poll which is actually pretty good. Because they know that the last poll is what people remember.
Call it Crazy says
Nope. If you actually understood what is going on, you'd have a different opinion.
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Call it Crazy says
You mean the "right" sources. Rasmussen hasn't been very accurate since about 2006, IIRC. They had one of the most embarassing performances of any polling firm ever in 2010, missing the Hawaii Senate race by 40 points. Really. 40 points. All polling houses with LV reports have proprietary models, but there's something particularly funky about Rasmussen's secret sauce.
Of course, none of them are perfect, which is why it's good to take averages. RCP has a good aggregator going, and it includes Rasmussen. I used to prefer Pollster until Huffpo bought them. For a while, they were letting DailyKos spam their averages into inutility.
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If someone thinks the real odds of a Romney victory are close to even, then they need to open an IEM account right now. Put your money where your mouth is, and triple your money !
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msilenus says
When one has a poor process ( as you highlighted), one goes back finds the faults which caused the errors, re-engineer the process, test and implement.
Hopefully, they fixed it this time around.
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marcus says
I "nailed it," with that call.
Now I am advising those (if any) who took my advice and bought Romney right before the first debate, to sell very soon.
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Barack Obama won 365 Electoral votes, carried 28 states and won by a margin of 52.9% to John McCain's 45.7%. McCain won 173 Electoral votes and carried 22 states
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And your point is ? What, Obama isn't going to win by as much as last time ? No kidding.
My point was about the election market. In late September, Romney at 20 (reflecting a 20% chance of winning), was undervalued. Even more so after that, when he exceeded expectations in the debate.
But Romney at nearly 30,....now,... is in my opinion overvalued. It would seem he now has way under 20% chance of winning. Maybe 14% or so, IMO.
Makes sense though, because many of the bettors are basing their bets on hopes, rather than a prudent analysis. Why should they throw in the towel and sell ROmney at 28, even if that is an overvalued price. Besides, maybe they are hoping that their people will steal the election somehow. They know their party, and who knows ?