Patrick.net

the bottom came and is rising

By chip_designer   Follow   Fri, 24 Aug 2012, 2:40pm   4,051 views   40 comments
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Your website used to be much more simple to read. Now you make it very complicated. Are you now a politics news too?

But my post is about the silicon valley real estate. The bottom came and go.
This year, if you are luck, you can still buy a house, since very low interest rates, but you might ending up in a bidding game.

Last year 2011 was the bottom of the real estate slump.

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1. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 588 comments Los Angeles, CA

   1   2:48pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Hey, your writing skills are terrible. Your ability to construct a reasonable argument is also suspect. Either that or your a troll.

2. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

   2   3:02pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   chip_designer says But my post is about the silicon valley real estate. The bottom came and go. I take it you have been reading the news lately... HP not doing so well,... the old saying from the 80s is true today.. when the Computer makers sneeze, its the chip and components vendors catch a cold. "This week, computer giant Hewlett-Packard announced that it had lost $8.86 billion in the third quarter, a record for the 73-year-old company. The loss — the latest in a string of bad news for the company, whose stock is down 32 percent this year" The issue, is still true today... ON THE RECORD / CARL GUARDINO http://www.sfgate.com/business/ontherecord/article/ON-THE-RECORD-CARL-GUARDINO-2574540.php#ixzz1v6EFUJaI Q: So are those really challenges? A: Unequivocally, yes. Not only to the CEOs in the boardroom, but to any family you talk to in their living room. What we hear time after time from CEOs as well as frontline employees is how incredibly difficult it is to come here and stay here. That truly does have an impact on a company's bottom line when the cost differential is so much higher here than it is in other regions around the state, nation and globe, or the ability to recruit top talent is also impacted. You mentioned housing. It probably is the top concern we hear about in Silicon Valley from both CEOs and employees in terms of local issues. Does that have an impact? Let me put a finer point on it. Hewlett-Packard and Dell are the top two computer-makers in the world. Corporate headquarters for HP are located in Palo Alto and Dell is in Round Rock, Texas. Obviously, they both have people and facilities around the globe. In those two communities where their corporate headquarters are and where a lot of research and development takes place, the median resale price for a home in Palo Alto is about $1.6 million. In Round Rock, Texas, it's about $180,000, except the home and property are bigger. We hear from HP all the time that a huge deterrent to the ability to recruit and retain people anywhere near Silicon Valley is the housing issue. We don't hear that from Dell, which is also a member company, about their operations in Round Rock. It does continue to plague us and we will continue to sound the alarm.

3. chip_designer Follow Befriend (1) 13 threads 139 comments

   3   3:09pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   this article just exxagerate to make bad noise. People working at HP in palo alto don't necessarily need live in PA. Duh! Thomas, stop being afraid , time to buy, or you may loose this chance.

4. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

   4   3:12pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   chip_designer says Thomas, stop being afraid , time to buy, or you may loose this chance. lol! i bough my current home in Los Gatos back in 1992 at a low price which would be considered obscene to some today. There is a "normal", but we are not there yet.

5. chip_designer Follow Befriend (1) 13 threads 139 comments

   5   3:15pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ah, so you want prices to go back to 1982 los gatos levels. HUmm...you are expecting too much.

6. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,095 comments

   6   3:21pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I really hate to encourage TW, but here we go. Sunnyvale based company NetApp is adding jobs, but it isn't in Silicon Valley: Data storage company NetApp announced Thursday a major expansion of its Wichita facility, to include the addition of about 400 jobs during the next five years.

7. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

   7   3:29pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   chip_designer says ah, so you want prices to go back to 1982 los gatos levels. HUmm...you are expecting too much. Stability... its a tough concept to understand! our 'normal pricing' is 1982 or mid 90s prices plus inflation.. had you been here in SV 2-3 decades you would understand this. You CANNOT have high home prices and deflating industries forced to pay local employees for their half million homes in the short or long run. HP, Intel, etc will rather ship your chip design job elsewhere .. and they have done just that. Perhaps you are unaware as Robert shiller has researched.. prices appreciate at the rate of inflation. Clearly prices have still much to correct.

8. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

   8   3:40pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   EBGuy says I really hate to encourage TW, but here we go. Sunnyvale based company NetApp is adding jobs, but it isn't in Silicon Valley: you need not listen to what i said.. but you certainly need to watch this ... see 2:00+ and listen to the Godfather! subcontract headcount, talent elsewhere, regulations, move outside of California, mfg and R&D, lower cost of living. http://pressheretv.com/?p=2710

9. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 60 threads 1,297 comments Premium

   9   3:49pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Companies do what they have to do. The natural evolution of a large mature company is to expand outside the headquarter. Apple expanding in Texas is no different than IBM, Samsung or Mircosoft doing the same exact thing. Over the recent years, Samsung, Fujitsu, Microsoft, Motorola mobile, RIMM Nokia, Amazon, Walmart.com, Dell and hundreds of other companies added headcount in the Silicon Valley. The biggest headcount adding was from Salesforce.com which went from 80 - 8000 in 10 years and a fortune magzine listed them as the highest paying company in this world. They are stil leasing even more space. It is clear, Silicon Valley is not going to be a manufacturing hub as their strengh is performing much higher value-add. It is still by far the most robust region in the world. More importantly, Silicon Valley is still getting the lions share of the VC money, especially in technology and social media, so the next Pandora, Linkedin, Facebook, Twitter, Yelp, Airbnb, Square, Pinterest, will more likely than not still come from this region.

10. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    10   4:00pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says Over the recent years, Samsung, Fujitsu, Microsoft, Motorola mobile, RIMM Nokia, Amazon, Walmart.com, Dell and hundreds of other companies added headcount in the Silicon Valley. no like dell, they acquired these companies because SV companies were burning plenty of cash compared to their rivals elsewhere.. in due time as in the past, the local operations will vanish elsewhere.

11. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    11   4:02pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   SFace says More importantly, Silicon Valley is still getting the lions share of the VC money, especially in technology and social media, so the next Pandora, Linkedin, Facebook, Twitter, Yelp, Airbnb, Square, Pinterest, will more likely than not still come from this region. Toys! what a pathetic load of crap money is being spent on !

12. Jeremy Follow Befriend (1) 7 threads 101 comments Valencia, CA

    12   4:08pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   dodgerfanjohn says Hey, your writing skills are terrible. Your ability to construct a reasonable argument is also suspect. Either that or your a troll. He's probably Asian. Certain things don't translate that well. Doesn't make him a troll. Oh by the way, when you slam someone, but you yourself do not know the difference between your and you're, you make yourself look like an ass.

13. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,363 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    13   4:09pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Chip - the real estate in your area is being treated more as an alternative to the volatile, and, some would even say completely automated equities market. RE in certain markets is serving as a sort of investor haven for wealth preservation. I don't think it will end well, but I do not know when it will end. If you were really smart, you'd move out to Victorville. It's a man's life.

14. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    14   4:11pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says It is clear, Silicon Valley is not going to be a manufacturing hub as their strengh is performing much higher value-add. that is a economic and national security 'problem'.. trying to sweep it under the rug isnt a solution. As many founders/CEO will state, its govt policies that have driven mfg and R&D out of SV and CA... New pro-business leadership needs to be elected into office. Yes, you can have MFG and R&D in CA.. what ever you want to do or make will be dictated by who and where Semiconductors are made... No semi... well forget about anything digital! Semis which we had nearly 80% global production back in the 80s isnt going to vanish anytime soon.. it will be around for a very very long time. You better find a solution to have it back in the USA, else you lose everything!

15. chip_designer Follow Befriend (1) 13 threads 139 comments

    15   4:14pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JodyChunder says Victorville. It's a man's life. are there a lot of hot chicks in there?

16. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

    16   4:15pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   This guy is my kind of guy the MAN I’m telling you he is telling you like it is!!! “Thomas, stop being afraid , time to buy, or you may loose this chance.” BOOCHAKOO I am always saying teh same thing. Don’t be a silly nilly: here you go in a beautiful shiny nutshell “THE BOTTOM CAME AND GO” Duh not get out there and lose the pocket books out with the cashish my friends. BORROW AS MUCH AS YOU CAN buy house after house rent them to looser renters and your golden future is assured. HOT CHICKALICKA

17. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,363 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    17   4:19pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   chip_designer says Victorville. It's a man's life. are there a lot of hot chicks in there? Positively chock-a-block.

18. chip_designer Follow Befriend (1) 13 threads 139 comments

    18   4:24pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JodyChunder says chock-a-block joke aside, but where is your language from? what means chock-a-block?

19. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,363 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    19   4:27pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Just a whole butt-load. Let me put it in more refined terms: there is a shit-ton of poontang all over Victorville.

20. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,363 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    20   7:04pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   War says Another serial bottom caller. In the meantime, prices continue to slip. Which is why you should rent a Garage Mahal from Jody in Victorville.

21. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,542 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    21   8:11pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   dodgerfanjohn says Hey, your writing skills are terrible. Your ability to construct a reasonable argument is also suspect. Either that or your a troll. Your writing is not better. It's "..... or you're a troll."

22. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    22   8:57pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JodyChunder says Just a whole butt-load. Let me put it in more refined terms: there is a shit-ton of poontang all over Victorville. LOL! can these city slickers handle cow girls... she wears spurs to bed!

23. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    23   9:39pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas, jody, dodgerfan, It looks like his/her posts are just a parody of the worst kind of caricature of all that's become wrong with the Santa Clara Valley. Someone using the caricature to make their point. You guys took the bait.

24. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    24   10:01pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   B.A.C.A.H. says You guys took the bait. LOL! more like he put his neck in the water..or arm, leg.. take anything! here fishy fishy!

25. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 588 comments Los Angeles, CA

    25   10:10pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL I don't presume to know what people look like on a computer screen. And yeah, its a bitch posting from an iphone.....

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    26   11:57pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   thomaswong.1986 says Perhaps you are unaware as Robert shiller has researched.. prices appreciate at the rate of inflation. Clearly prices have still much to correct. Your chart is now 1.5 years old and getting older every day. A significant bounce to the upside in 2012 is entirely missing. How long are you going to use old data to support predictions that have already been proven wrong?

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    27   11:59pm Fri 24 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Here, let me help you update your old chart. San Jose must not have gotten your memo:

28. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,542 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    28   12:21am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   It's interesting looking at the bounce in spring 2011 compared to this year. Last year, sold prices shot up only about $10/sqft. This year, it shot up $50/sqft. Wow, big difference in terms of percentage. Looking at the time lag between contract & closing, last fall was a good time to buy if you were shopping for a house.

29. TMAC54 Follow Befriend (9) 70 threads 930 comments San Leandro, CA

    29   7:40am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   chip_designer says the bottom came and is rising You might protect yourself et. al., by understanding why prices became detached from reality in the first place. 2.5 reasons: Women became credit worthy in 1973 and 10 yrs later the computer industry was born simultaeneously with gubmint imposed easy lending policies. ALL of which became obsolete by 2008. Hey Patrick, How might we get some people to put their money where their "BOTTOM" mouth is ?

30. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,181 threads 6,153 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA Premium

    30   9:39am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Well, to address the initial topic, so many people were discussing politics that I created a separate politics forum for them: http://patrick.net/politics/ If you just want real estate discussion, go to that forum: http://patrick.net/real-estate/ Everything is mixed together on the home page so you can see where the latest activity is, and what's available. I like it that way. But my post is about the silicon valley real estate. The bottom came and go. Depends on which segment of the market you are looking at. At the very low end (Antioch, Pittsburgh, etc) then yes, I'd say it usually makes sense to buy there now because the cost of renting is higher than the cost of owning in those places. But in wealthy areas (most of SF, Palo Alto) there is no housing bottom at all! Renters are still enjoying extreme discounts relative to owning the same thing because buyers are paying so much more than the house is really worth. And no, it was not always that way in those neighborhoods. Price-to-rent ratios more than doubled in San Francisco from 2000 to 2005. See page 34 of "Sell Now!" by John Talbott. The bubble is alive and well. You just have to look up at it instead of down at the poor areas. The middle is inbetween of course. Try my calculator for any given house: http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php

31. raindoctor Follow Befriend (1) 3 threads 130 comments Mountain View, CA

    31   9:54am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple is gonna become a trillion dollar company. Bay area homes will keep on going up, with these trillion dollars!!

32. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    32   10:24am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says Your chart is now 1.5 years old and getting older every day. A significant bounce to the upside in 2012 is entirely missing. You need not keep charts updated for SFBA or any other metro to understand basic concepts embedded into the historical numbers... its very basic.. over time, prices appreciate at the rate of inflation. Read up on it.. Robert Shiller's Irrational Exuberance.

33. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,817 comments

    33   10:39am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says Here, let me help you update your old chart. San Jose must not have gotten your memo: oh I have no doubt there are still many fools in the market place... , join the herd mentality, care to be the next one off the cliff.

34. jan Follow Befriend 4 threads 68 comments McKeesport, PA

    34   11:45am Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Was wondering if anybody had a position on Bernake & co. easing interest rates again in september. Makes buying here in pittsburgh, pa a no brainer. What is it now 2.75-3%? Anyway looks like we chose right and stayed away from California, came close to buying in walnut creek in the early 1990's. I hear it's a ghost town now, the nice mall and surrounding areas doa. Anyone live there now?

35. CDon Follow Befriend (1) 209 comments

    35   12:23pm Sat 25 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Patrick says But in wealthy areas (most of SF, Palo Alto) there is no housing bottom at all! Renters are still enjoying extreme discounts relative to owning the same thing because buyers are paying so much more than the house is really worth. You know, just because something remains ridicuously expensive vs renting does not necessarily have to do with whether it has "bottomed" or not. Your buddy "irvine renter" indicates on his blog that some expensive areas have traded above rental parity for over 24 years in a row... If so, that means that in even in 1996 (in some areas) buying was still more expensive than renting. Yet, by all accounts 1996 was indeed "the bottom", as prices rose thereafter. Now, if your argument was "it doesnt make sense to buy", that may be true since you could save so much renting vs. buying. Still, that doesnt necessarily have anything to do with whether the bottom was hit or not.

36. chip_designer Follow Befriend (1) 13 threads 139 comments

    36   11:01am Mon 27 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   jan says I hear it's a ghost town now, the nice mall and surrounding areas doa. Anyone live there now? we don't need amish people in walnut creek. we are doing so well.

37. mike2 Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 150 comments El Cerrito, CA

    37   2:51am Mon 17 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   To Jan: You say Walnut Creek is a ghost town? Are you nuts? The place is one of the most desirable and greatest areas to live in aroubd the Bay area! Home prices are up, Schools are great, Malls and Resturants are PACKED and business is booming. Downtown brings in people all over the Bay Area..in fact to many people from outside the area cause problems for the downtown area and local people. IF you had a chance to buy in the early 90's you missed a great opportunity for sure. I know Pittsburgh and it is a nice town, new baseball stadium and downrown is picking up but Pittsbugh Penn does not hold a candle to Walnut Creek. Cheaper to live in Pitts for sure but you get what you pay for.

38. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    38   4:14am Mon 17 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dodgerfanjohn says Hey, your writing skills are terrible. Your ability to construct a reasonable argument is also suspect. Either that or your a troll. You read my mind 100%.

39. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    39   4:15am Mon 17 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   raindoctor says Apple is gonna become a trillion dollar company. Bay area homes will keep on going up, with these trillion dollars!! I would be concerned that you hold your phone too close to your head for prolonged periods.

40. StoutFiles Follow Befriend (1) 24 threads 557 comments

    40   5:40am Mon 17 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The market has improved in the past 6 months, but that 's only because 2012 has been called the bounce back year for 4+ years. What's going to happen at the end of the year when: 1) tax cuts expire 2) federal spending on programs is drastically cut OR 1) We print up even more monopoly money, our credit rating is downgraded, and the value of the dollar goes to crap