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Real estate bubbles

By Brentok3   Follow   Mon, 3 Sep 2012, 11:04am   5,504 views   62 comments
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1. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

   23   1:11pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I dunno bimmerman. They run circles around me with the Lexuses, BMW's, SUV's, trips "back home" to Asia or wherever (during expensive holiday travel period, too), Harker tuition, private lessons, private coaching, private SAT prep tutoring, etc. Whatever.

2. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

   24   1:27pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   B.A.C.A.H. says I dunno bimmerman. They run circles around me with the Lexuses, BMW's, SUV's, trips "back home" to Asia or wherever (during expensive holiday travel period, too), Harker tuition, private lessons, private coaching, private SAT prep tutoring, etc. Whatever. Well who knows then. If it is 0-gen immigrants from southern China, then yeah of course they look down on you. Back in the home country, dignity is directly proportional to net worth. They probably see you as a poor piece of shit with no dignity since they don't understand that the real beauty of America is that you can live your life as you see fit, and that individuality is more important than the collective. America is just a notch on a social totem pole to them, and a place to stash ill-gotten money for when they need to exit the homeland when shit hits the fan there.

3. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

   25   1:35pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   B.A.C.A.H. says I dunno bimmerman. They run circles around me with the Lexuses, BMW's, SUV's, trips "back home" to Asia or wherever (during expensive holiday travel period, too), Harker tuition, private lessons, private coaching, private SAT prep tutoring, etc. Whatever. It is a different mindset. Both husband and wife work and more often than not, just one kid. So both pull in close to 150-300k a year or more. If one gets laid off, there is always another to pull up the slack for a few months. Many don't travel or have hobbies or spend money on things other than a nice house, nice car and forever running the rat race like a hamster. Those trips to Asia, most of the time is working from home or working remotely a few months. Then of course they Tiger Mom or dad their kids to achieve and follow in their footsteps. Just part of the culture in many Asian countries, where it used to be very difficult to get by or even get a job and any little advantage to get you ahead of the hordes could mean the difference between your whole family living in a room and five families sharing a toilet or having your own house and good job. That and hunger is always a good motivator to work hard, save and get ahead in life and not worry about the meaning of life or ponder about other such things. Of course, for many first generation immigrant Asians, the divorce rate is still very, very low, so no need to worry about your spouse running off with half and keeping your kids away, forcing you to fork over obscene amounts in child support and alimony. Look at Tom Cruise-crazy he may be-but he has to fork over 33 k a month and on top of that pay all expenses-medical, school, health, extra curricular etc.. if he is paying all expenses, what is the 33k a month for???? Of course Asia of today is very different, with labor shortages and anyone with a pulse getting a job or even coming over here on visas-so actually it is somewhat becoming westernised over there- here though I don't know what is happening. Nowadays there, many want to get into fields they like instead of the one that brings the most money.

4. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   26   1:41pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RentingForHalfTheCost says Owning is for the weak! Yep. 65% of the Americans are the weak. 35% of the renters are the strong. The 35% include Section 8 and well-off people living on the "project". I bet I'm still missing other creative government supported programs for the 35%, I mean the strong. :>)

5. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   27   1:44pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says But don't worry I never default. The probability might be low, but never say "never." :)

6. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

   28   1:59pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   lostand confused says So both pull in close to 150-300k a year or more. If one gets laid off, Too expensive to maintain in CA if they both work in tech.. both will be downsized. since there are alternatives which cost half as much...

7. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

   29   2:01pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   B.A.C.A.H. says Harker tuition, private lessons, private coaching, private SAT prep tutoring, etc. ... lol Save some $$$ for rehab when little Kwan hits the bottle due to the stress !

8. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

   30   2:09pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   thomaswong.1986 says lostand confused says So both pull in close to 150-300k a year or more. If one gets laid off, Too expensive to maintain in CA if they both work in tech.. both will be downsized. since there are alternatives which cost half as much... Depends on the size of the network you have. Most jobs you get by networking and knowing someone, not applying off of dice.

9. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

   31   2:22pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lostand confused says Depends on the size of the network you have. Most jobs you get by networking and knowing someone, not applying off of dice. Networking does little when the budgeting RED pen draws down a 10-20% cost reduction. I hope some have networks that cross multiple states.. Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Washington.

10. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

    32   2:26pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   thomaswong.1986 says Networking does little when the budgeting RED pen draws down a 10-20% cost reduction. I hope some have networks that cross multiple states.. Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Washington. You honestly think they lay off people who make the most money or the deadwood or the people who contribute little to the company? In today's outsourced world, talented people are the first to go and loud mouth boorish people who bumble through everything seem to stay.

11. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

    33   3:18pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says It is our money. I don't know you, but can say with certainty that you don't deserve a 30 year 4% mortgage. The only reason that is available is the free money attitude in this country. If you buy with cash, then I agree it is not our money. But I bet you are using our money to buy. If and when the market goes further south we will all pay for your real estate gambling habit. Another underwater mortgage holder that needs help from Joe the Plumber. I agree. This is why I hate Roberto and his ilk.

12. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

    34   3:20pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   E-man says RentingForHalfTheCost says Owning is for the weak! Yep. 65% of the Americans are the weak. 35% of the renters are the strong. The 35% include Section 8 and well-off people living on the "project". I bet I'm still missing other creative government supported programs for the 35%, I mean the strong. :>) Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure. Oh yeah. Owners are smart. They don't use any government supported programs like 3% FHA loans. Or disaster relief funds should your POS burn or get flooded. Or mortgage interest deduction.

13. REpro Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 469 comments San Jose, CA

    35   3:56pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Brentok3 says To get crazy prices in real estate, you generally need crazy lending. When the crazy lending goes away, so do the crazy prices Not a factor in BA for instance. If house is attractive in good neighborhood, no Seller, nor Listing Agent, care anymore if you pre-approved; have 3.5% down or 50% down; your loan is FHA or conventional; have 1% or10% interest. The house is sold to the person who came with ALL CASH with no contingency and his offer is above asking price.

14. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    36   4:01pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebooksux says I agree. This is why I hate Roberto and his ilk. According to what you said before, you make a salary north of $1.5m a year and yet you post comments like that. $1.5m a year puts you in the top 0.1% and yet you bitch about Roberto's 80k house deals in Phoenix. What part of that doesn't ring true?

15. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    37   4:27pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Of all people questioning someones integrity, Bibsy has the audicity to to be the one to do it. Stunning. You've already used that line before for Roberto. And the word is audacity. Your posts are a continual assault on integrity as you are simply trolling. And once again, you've never actually mentioned what I've apparently been lying about, or even my views on housing for that matter. Why not have a go? I'd be fascinated to learn what it is you think I've been lying about. I'm sure I'll be in for a long wait.

16. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    38   5:14pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says You have no integrity my friend. Now carry on with your fawning. Ahh, would that be fawning as in pointing out what you are doing? Again, what have I been lying about and what do you think my views on housing are?

17. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

    39   5:25pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Bigsby says Facebooksux says I agree. This is why I hate Roberto and his ilk. According to what you said before, you make a salary north of $1.5m a year and yet you post comments like that. $1.5m a year puts you in the top 0.1% and yet you bitch about Roberto's 80k house deals in Phoenix. What part of that doesn't ring true? My salary is not nearly that high, but I do fall within the 1%. Don't get me wrong. I'm well off but I'm still salaried and in a field that is open to drastic change (health care). My concerns boil down to living within one's means. Doesn't matter how much you make if you're still living paycheck to fucking paycheck, understand? The same easy money that allows Roberto Buffet to make his transactions and amass hundreds of prized golden retrievers allows people to artificially bid up prices in the Bay Area. I agree that a Los Altos Hills estate will always be worth a couple million, but a piece of shit Mountain View ranch home or Eichler--or whatever the fuck they call it where you can't even bang your girlfriend in the living room with all the windows cause there are kids riding bikes all over the sidewalk--shouldn't be worth nearly $1,000,000.

18. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    40   5:38pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebooksux says My concerns boil down to living within one's means. Doesn't matter how much you make if you're still living paycheck to fucking paycheck, understand? The same easy money that allows Roberto Buffet to make his transactions and amass hundreds of prized golden retrievers allows people to artificially bid up prices in the Bay Area. Roberto has bought a bunch of 80k houses. Big deal. From the rents he's getting, it sounds like he made some good buys. Lucky him, but his worth is a fraction of yours, so what is it that you are so annoyed about? And please, of course it matters how much you earn. If you earn $1m a year and are living pay cheque to pay cheque, then you can change your bloody lifestyle and still have a very nice life, and save rather a lot into the bargain. Try that when you are earning minimum wage. And of course prices are high in the BA, but what has that got to do with Roberto?

19. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    41   7:25pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Facebooksux says I agree that a Los Altos Hills estate will always be worth a couple million, but a piece of shit Mountain View ranch home or Eichler--or whatever the fuck they call it where you can't even bang your girlfriend in the living room with all the windows cause there are kids riding bikes all over the sidewalk--shouldn't be worth nearly $1,000,000. LOL nice

20. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    42   7:54pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Bigsby says From the rents he's getting lmao..... and you believe him. Considerably more than I believe you.

21. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    43   9:32pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says At your own peril. I'll take my chances.

22. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    44   10:16pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lostand confused says You honestly think they lay off people who make the most money or the deadwood or the people who contribute little to the company? deadwood and non contributors get fired. whole departments and functions go through restructuring and cost reduction programs to be in line with budgets and forecasts. why else have we seen many large (intel, hp, cisco) to smaller employers moved out of state. or was it perhaps the Director of Engineering wants to be closer to the North West for Salmon fishing.. I dont think so!

23. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    45   10:18pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Facebooksux says I agree that a Los Altos Hills estate will always be worth a couple million, was it always a couple of million ? or is that more recent number after doubling by 2000 and then doubling again by peak year all told over 300-400% ?

24. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

    46   4:11am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   thomaswong.1986 says lostand confused says You honestly think they lay off people who make the most money or the deadwood or the people who contribute little to the company? deadwood and non contributors get fired. whole departments and functions go through restructuring and cost reduction programs to be in line with budgets and forecasts. why else have we seen many large (intel, hp, cisco) to smaller employers moved out of state. or was it perhaps the Director of Engineering wants to be closer to the North West for Salmon fishing.. I dont think so! Hmm, you must believe the world is fair and all senior management are wise souls, who do everything for the greater good. Last few months, CA job creation has picked up and eclipsed Texas. I never understand why some people who have a visceral hatred of CA, continue to stay here. Life is too short.

25. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    47   4:40am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Brentok3 says when prices in former bubble areas decline to 10% of the bubble high, then you buy. Sorry to inform Mr Templton that AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. You fail to realise what happened in real estate in Miami early 20th century yes at the turn of the last century go look it up. Prices fall enormously when the smoke and mirror bullshite inflates them as part of the sucker's kool-raid. Prices in CA were insane and are still insane, the difference between 1975 and today in CA? Today people are not walking but RUNNING the hell out of there.

26. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    48   4:41am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   KOOL-RAID my answer to all the bullshite of the past ten years.

27. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    49   4:46am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Bigsby says Darrell In Phoenix says At your own peril. I'll take my chances. Step right up and put your money where your mouth is. ?

28. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    50   8:01am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Raw says HEY YOU says My offers have been 50% off present prices.May have to wait a while before I buy. Yeah, for ever. Is that the same "for ever" quasi definition as used in "always" by realtards? i.e. house prices "always" go up! I guess english must be a second lanquage for many realtards.

29. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    51   8:16am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   E-man says RentingForHalfTheCost says Owning is for the weak! Yep. 65% of the Americans are the weak. 35% of the renters are the strong. The 35% include Section 8 and well-off people living on the "project". I bet I'm still missing other creative government supported programs for the 35%, I mean the strong. :>) Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure. Go walking around downtown San Jose and just try to steal someones food stamps. I dare you! Now, after you recover from the horrid beating that you got from the 90 year old great-grandma, stoll down university ave and walk right into the first coffee shop and when they call out a name be the first one to reach the counter and take the drinks. What happens? Nothing besides you get free drinks. Why? Because people are weak. They think money and the value of something replaces principles. Personally, everything I work for and own has value. If you try to con me for anything , even things of little financial value, I'll challenge you in a second. I think that is what makes me different than most here. I grew up poor as dirt, on food stamps and fought for everything I got. The whole injustice of home ownership just smell bad to me and it always has. Do I own? Yes, 4 houses in areas where the smell is at least liveable. Do I own in the fortress, not even interested at these fairy tail prices. The difference, with me is that I have been fortunate in the dot com bubble. I benefited like many who ended up taking the windfall and buying. Even though I could, I didn't because of principle. The majority of people in this country have forgotten what having principles means. You never overpay for anything, there is a fair market price for things. Outside manipulation of asset prices is just corrupt in my world. Such has been the case since I have been in the market. However, the wheels are coming off this run-away vehicle. You can only cheat the true demand for so long before it comes crumbling down.

30. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    52   1:48pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   bmwman91 says Back in the home country, dignity is directly proportional to net worth. Unfortunately, that view is becoming more common in the USA too.

31. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    53   2:02pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Raw says lostand confused says Yeah, I remember during the peak of the bubble, when Alberto Ramirez, a strawberry picker making 14k a year, qualified for and bought a house in Hollister for 720k. I mean a house in Hollister, CA for 720k ??!! The guy was only making 14k a year and some dumb bank gave him a 720k mortgage. Of course us tax payers probably bailed out that dumb bank and the executives are probably still flying around in corporate jets with huge bonuses, while asking the normal folks to work harder and stop being so entitled. Granted that was pretty stupid. It is not happening now. Really? 3.5% down is smart? 96.5% owing for crying out loud. I bet some of that 3.5% is also suspicious but realtors will not say anything. Gotta pay for that Mercedes this month.

32. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

    54   2:14pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   It is. These assholes are getting a SECOND LOAN for the 3.5%.

33. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 11 threads 775 comments Dublin, CA

    55   2:30pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I don't envision prices falling in any meaningful way in bay area any time soon. The moment of truth was in the rental market from 2009-2012. If the economy truly stank at the high end, then the rents should have plummeted. At least, they should have been flat. However, the luxury apartment complexes such as archstone raised rents easily 30% in that time period. This revealed that there is still money in this area and plenty of it for that matter. It is that same demographic that is now trying to purchase home although their barrier to entry has gotten more difficult (harder to save for downpayment as a result of rising rents.)

34. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 11 threads 775 comments Dublin, CA

    56   2:30pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says The majority of people in this country have forgotten what having principles means. You never overpay for anything, there is a fair market price for things. Do you share the same outrage for apartment complexes that fleece people?

35. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,851 comments

    57   3:50pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   lostand confused says I never understand why some people who have a visceral hatred of CA, continue to stay here. Life is too short. We have been invaded by New Yorkers and Bostonians with their own ideas of what California should be. Its no wonder they are treating areas as a "Fortress" very similar to what we know of the East Coast...high priced 'special' areas of the elite. Now you know why California is being destroyed and Natives are moving out...

36. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    58   4:49pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dublin hillz says RentingForHalfTheCost says The majority of people in this country have forgotten what having principles means. You never overpay for anything, there is a fair market price for things. Do you share the same outrage for apartment complexes that fleece people? There is an easy fix for that. Move.

37. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

    59   5:02pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Exactly. But if you have a massive, crushing mortgage payment on a rapidly depreciating house? You're doomed Not exactly. You can stop paying the mortgage and live rent free for what-three years??

38. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    60   7:01am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dublin hillz says Do you share the same outrage for apartment complexes that fleece people? It's not any worse than rent paid on borrowed money, a.k.a. interest. Both rent and mortgage interest (plus property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) are money "down the drain" paid to "the man."

39. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 11 threads 775 comments Dublin, CA

    61   9:14am Thu 6 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   freak80 says dublin hillz says Do you share the same outrage for apartment complexes that fleece people? It's not any worse than rent paid on borrowed money, a.k.a. interest. Both rent and mortgage interest (plus property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) are money "down the drain" paid to "the man." Yes, they are both money down the drain, but the interest on a fixed rate loan goes down every month while in the long term, rent is projected to go up at the rate of inflation to be modest. Since inflation is rougly 3.1% per year, we can make a reasonable educated guess that in 24 years, the rent will double. This inverse relationship between rent and mortgage interest in the long run gets seriously magnified. Personally, I think it is a mistake to always consider the cost of renting vs owning in year 1 and leave it at that. This analysis should be done over the remaining lifetime of each person.

40. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    62   9:56am Thu 6 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dublin hillz says Personally, I think it is a mistake to always consider the cost of renting vs owning in year 1 and leave it at that. This analysis should be done over the remaining lifetime of each person. You make a good point. For people with secure jobs in stable industries, who plan to "stay put" for many years that should be done. But people tend to move around a lot. Especially in "high tech" high-risk careers. The transaction costs of buying/selling houses is significant. Realtors need their 6%. If you move every 5 years, those costs will eat you alive!

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