WatchTo those of my friends still looking to buy in the Bay Area, good news, things are going down again.
We got out of the game a few months ago after some number crunching, and decided the Bay Area is too risky of an investment, but to those of you still looking, prices are starting their movement towards down.
Not only did we have real estate agents calling on offers we were countered or refused on months ago, we have seen drops in housing all around where we live, which we hadn't seen in over six months. All summer long it was crazy; people buying things ten times their annual income, and fighting with other buyers to do it. Now the chaos has settled.
Things are on the downhill movement. A house near our new magnet school is pending for under $300,000, which you would have never seen in June of this year. Especially since it's in the good neighborhood in our town, and it's a nice house two blocks from the new charter/magnet school.
I hope this means a healthy market is on its way for all of you dreaming to buy still. (:
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edvard2 says
bmwman91 says
Carolyn C says
Flippers and realtors collude, and each is the only group that can stand the other. They have no taste, don't care about taste or quality, but they generate so much activity that they drive the market. "What sells" is whatever flippers are doing, because they're constantly selling.
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APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Long guns, ammo and yams!
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APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Dont forget the 100 round drum clips and the heavy curved machete blade for close hand to hand.
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I hate that school, I have bad blood with them. My friend sued that school, and won.
That said, Sobrato is the new desired High School. My kids are going to be homeschooled at that point, so I don't care too much either way.
Been to Live Oak lately? Go hang around the campus and form your own opinion. It's not your father's Live Oak, not any more.
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Sobrato "desired"?
Really, it's the same demographic over there. Difference is, the buildings are newer (though the campus looks more like a prison than Live Oak does), A LOT closer to the freeway (more exhaust for the kids); the trees are shorter. Other than that, its just Live Oak rev 1.
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APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
The only other thing we need to work on is protein. I'm thinking chickens are the way to go her. Lots of eggs to be had and we can roast them when they no longer produce.
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It's official, from Homeland Security, it has begun:
Zombie alert!
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OPEN FIRE!
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hrhjuliet says
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The school has a lot of great programs and people are dying to get their kids in, that's all I know. It's still pretty "Beaver Cleaver" in Morgan Hill. It's one of the reasons I don't care for this town and want to move. It's far to soccer mom and baseball dad for me. In some ways it's a lot more oppressive to live in a super yuppie community, than to live somewhere more metropolitan. Free-thinking is considered suspect here, and anyone who speaks out against anything is quickly labeled by the majority as a buzz-kill over their cappuccino. This is a very "Dursley" like community. I've never seen or heard of a gang issue in Morgan Hill. It's anything but Salinas or Gilroy. Los Gatos is just as close to the crime ridden areas of San Jose as Morgan Hill is to Salinas, but believe me both are world's away. I like the low crime aspect, but I hate the snobbishness and the amount of brainless yuppies that live here. That's the real problem. Morgan Hill is a wasteland of new neutral and black SUV's, ugly new beige homes and soccer fields. Creativity is not a wanted quality here [unless you are making a quilt or some other mommy craft] and trying to find someone to have an intellectual conversation with is like trying to catch a cloud. I never said that I like Morgan Hill, but it is a family oriented yuppie beige town. There is no doubt to that. oB.A.C.A.H. says
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hrhjuliet,
Clearly Morgan Hill cannot be any good. You did not even bother to mention API scores. Maybe the gwailo think it is good, but they surely do not see reality properly. If the high schools in that city cannot get my child into Harvard or Stanford to study medicine or law, then there is obviously nothing going on there. So, nice try, but I will just take my dragon gold to Cupertino, thank you very much! I must go now, it is time for my child's 3rd grade student council elections, followed by piano lessons and then SAT prep courses. He only has 9 more years to prepare for SATs, and I really don't understand why they can't offer AP courses in elementary school. How else can I ensure that my child will be a doctor or lawyer?! My GOD, what would the other ladies at my daily dim sum social think if he was anything LESS?
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bmwman91,
A plus or GTFO!
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bmwman91 says
POTD
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OK, I gotta know...who started reading my post with an accent in their head after the third sentence?
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Everyone.
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hrhjuliet says
Your post lacks any useful proof or data to back up your argument. In other words, it's entirely worthless. And for the record, I am not disputing what you are saying, just pointing out that claims like that should have backing.
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Well, yeah, in October the prices become more reasonable, in November sellers become more negotiable, and in December you are buying what you think is a bargain.
In January the whole Spring Bounce thing starts over with prices inching a little higher, and December buyers talking about what a great deal they got.
We are in a period of deleveraging.
Prices will continue to slip, but the Consumer Price Index will continue to residetial housing units in a catagory of affordability with these historically low interest rates.
You can buy what you can comfortably afford, and pay it off.
It's a housing unit. You can live in an apartment at some one else's pleasure, or buy for cheap, and pay it off.
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War says
Where are you coming up with that statement? Also- where do you live? I can say that without a doubt, rents in the Bay Area are not anywhere close to being half the cost of buying. In fact, its getting to the point where rents are becoming more costly than doing so. Perfect example: on average renting a house the same size as the one we bought in our area actually costs $500 more per month than what we pay.
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They may be cheap in scorpion infested desert shitholes but in more pricey nicer areas renting is far cheaper and smarter.
"You can live in an apartment at some one else's pleasure,"
Actually I rent from my landlord for my pleasure, and he's lucky I do. Poor sod, my rent barely covers HALF his monthly nut. Its a nice house in a good neighborhood in the SF Bay area.
He's a pretty typical example of house flipper turned land lord, turned white knuckle debtor.
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War says
No... I'm sorry but they are not. Why? Because I looked. We rented the same 4 bedroom house for almost 10 years. At the time of our signing of the contract, rents were cheap because the bay area was still coming out of the tech boom doldrums, the rental market was cheap and the supply was plentiful. We had 15+ rental houses to choose from. We chose the most expensive one because it was nice and the rent was still amazingly cheap.
Fast-forward to 5-6 years later, say around 2007 or so, I started looking at area comparable rentals. First of all, there were very few homes for rent. Secondly, the ones available were a LOT more than what we were paying. Thirdly the competition for those houses was much higher. The reason was likely because at the time, those who would have qualified to buy no longer could thus the demand for rentals went up as a result. The economy has also unquestionably improved.
At the time that we bough 7 months ago there was even less rentals available. At the same time interest rates came way down. So doing the math, the cost of buying in our area was cheaper. This is simply arithmetic.
Is it the case that its cheaper to rent in some cases? Sure. But the trend from what I experienced as a long-term renter is that rent has gone up and its not the simply black and white comparison it was say around 2003-2006.
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edvard2: "The economy has also unquestionably improved."
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA
Wow, this doesn't say much about your grasp on reality, thus we will have take your claims about rent vs own in your area with a grain of salt. Btw, do you prefer grape or cherry?
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War says
Saying that "rents are cheaper" over and over again doesn't make it any more right than it was the first time you said it. Also- as someone who was out of work at the height of the recession and then employed, well many of my friends were also out of work, and they too have all found jobs. The job market has indeed improved.
But you can believe what you want. I could care less anyway.
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edvard2: "I could care less anyway."
Of course you care, you're took on decades of debt to live in a house in an area where prices have a loooooooooooong way to fall.
I don't blame you for continuing to post after your "last post" trying to convince yourself you did the right thing.
Lots of newly minted home debtors do this.
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pazuzu says
Like I've said in other posts: I do not care what the value of my home is. It is not an investment to me. My retirement plans, savings, and stocks are where most of my wealth is located. If my house falls to zero, then I would still not care. I bought this to live in. Do prices in the bay area have a looooonggg way to fall? Well they haven't really fallen since around 2009 or so and in fact have shown a marginal gain in value. So if the fall, let us know. Otherwise I do not care.pazuzu says
Well, that would be interesting if it were true. I don't have to "convince" myself of anything. It was a good choice for me and thus the right thing for me. For others perhaps not. Then again the same could easily be said for renting.
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pazuzu says
Once someone has bought a home, even if it is your family member, and you think it was mistake, the only thing to say is, "congratulations, enjoy your new home!"
really, you are acting like a piss ant.
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Interesting how that the last two comments I've made have been deleted. Oh well- say what you want to believe.
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pazuzu says
Rent is debt in disquise unless one has the option to move in back home and live for free with their parents.
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War says
Says the person who claims to live in Phoenix...
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EBGuy says
Worth a re-read.
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pazuzu says
Cherry please.
Hmm....that was tasty. Did you include tip on that bill? Would a $1 tip be adequate on a $2 drink? What can I say? I'm a generous guy. I'm tipping 50%. :)
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edvard2 says
Well said.
For every Cool-Aid drinker here or aspiring slumlord, there's a snarky hipster who's "jealous" because s/he's not special enough (or stupid enough) to buy the property that they covet.
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I've noticed that several houses I was interested in (and lost out to in bidding wars) now are sitting vacant with ADT signs posted out front. That is a bit troubling to me. Are people (in China and elsewhere) buying homes in the Bay Area as investments and now sitting on them?
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wave9x says
Where?
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Ghost cities of the SFBA lol.
Personally, I do hope that throngs of wealthy Chindians are snapping up EVERYTHING and sitting on it. The RE market is so fucked up already that, at this point, I want to see it get much MORE fucked up. That would a) be mildly entertaining, b) bring the ultimate consequences of our society's terrible grasp on financial reality closer, and c) hopefully help me convince my wife to move to Colorado.
But back to reality. It could just be out-of-staters or something, and maybe it is just a couple of houses that you noticed. I doubt that it is anything sinister.
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This is in the mid Peninsula area of the SF Bay Area, nicer areas in the hills. Literally five out of five houses I have checked out, no one has been living in for months. Perhaps the houses I like are also liked by out of towers as second homes? Seems unlikely though.
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Can you check the county records to see who bought them?
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I checked blockshopper (is that the only place to get that info?) and one was a holding company, one was an Asian guy, the others don't have info online yet. Another anecdote, one house (owned by the holding co) after it was sold had some activity, and the owners (if that's who they were) had some very expensive cars parked there - a Ferrari, a Bentley, and a Range Rover. Now they are gone. I guess the investor theory is still alive. Would someone actually buy a house like a stock and wait for the value to go up?
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wave9x says
Yep. Rich folks from Communist China; part of their exit strategy. Look at it this way, repatriation of USD.
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wave9x says
Some people have so much money that buying real estate is part of wealth preservation. Sometimes return of capital is much more important than return on capital.