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when to sell a home, especially in a bubble!

By robertoaribas   Follow   Sun, 2 Sep 2012, 8:12pm   6,123 views   49 comments
In Scottsdale AZ 85250   Watch (3)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

http://robertoaribas.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/when-to-sell-a-home-especially-in-a-bubble/

In this post, I want to examine my prior home sales leading into the bubble. In December 2005, I sold one home for $176K. I had purchased this home for $103000 in Aug 1998. Taking out repairs, this...

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1. gbenson Follow Befriend 16 threads 389 comments

   10   8:44am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Investor, each rental is unique for all of us I would think. In my case I have mostly condos cause I can have a bunch of them and my maintenance is low. I don't have to clean gutters, trim trees, or paint exterior, etc. Let's me keep my full time office job and still handle the rentals with ease. I set rent usually based on comps in craigslist, however the individual property determines where I place it relative to that. Most of my condos are in pretty good shape, granite counters, vaulted ceilings, etc, so I am near the upper-middle of the price point on craigslist. Have one or two that are in not the best area of town, but are 'the right distance' from the light rail station. (Right distance being close enough to walk in 5 minutes or less, but far enough so criminals to hop station to station won't go out that far so crime is relatively lower). Usually get a lot of applicants who I wouldn't want to rent to in those properties, so sometimes I lower my price a bit ($15 - $25/mo relative to comps) so that I increase my pool of applicants and can be more selective and get someone in there who is going to pay on time and not trash the property. But in the more desirable locations I don't even have to do that because the demand is so high that I can charge top dollar and still get suitable applicants cause mine is the only listing. (Most of mine are in the more desirable neighborhoods, but got really good deals on the other 3, which is why I bought them). On vacancy rate, condos tend to flip tenants faster than 3br SFH, but out of 9 properties I have had only about 1 vacancy that lasted about one month (waited for a really good tenant who was relocating to the area). More often than not, I am able to overlap if someone leaves and have a day or two to clean and the new tenant moves right in.

2. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 165 threads 1,549 comments Premium

   11   8:55am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Interesting gbenson, do you have to pay HOA fees too and does it eat up a substantial portion of the income. Though, I would think since it is a rental, it would be deductible?

3. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   12   8:57am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebooksux says I'm not rich. If I were I wouldn't be following this awesome website. What I would like to do is parlay my hard earned money into a nice house for myself and my parents but the market here is full on batshit crazy. You're not rich and yet you claim to pay more in taxes in a year than Robert says he's made in all his real estate transactions. Isn't he claiming to have made well over $500,000 in his dealings? I'd say that makes you rich.

4. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 755 threads 2,590 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

   13   9:29am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says a nagging voice has been telling me that I could have done even better. The voice of greed and evil is speaking to you. You were fortunate to avoid the housing bubble. Lots of professors did not avoid it. They were smart, like you, but it didn't work for them. Appreciate what you have.

5. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

   14   9:29am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   My definition of rich is not having to work for a living. Mitt Romney Buffett Zuckfuck Soros, etc etc. I have a job that I put a lot of hours into but I need to keep working. I am very fortunate that I have a great income, but I'm not "rich."

6. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   15   9:47am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebooksux says My definition of rich is not having to work for a living. Mitt Romney Buffett Zuckfuck Soros, etc etc. I have a job that I put a lot of hours into but I need to keep working. I am very fortunate that I have a great income, but I'm not "rich." Then you need a more realistic outlook on things. Anybody who pays 500k in taxes a year is rich and isn't fretting about the price of their first home purchase.

7. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   16   10:08am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (3)   Facebooksux says I pay more in taxes every year than the entire pittance you've made over the last decade. However, it's because of people like you who think they're Warren Buffett Jr, and Chinese sweatshop owners bringing their cash overseas while fleeing from government firing squads that cause a piece of shit 1000 square foot hovel in E.P.A. to sell for $700,000. I'm not an elitist or an asshole by nature but Bay Area real estate brings it out in me and I don't apoligize for it. ding ding ding! we have a winner for lying piece of s*it of the year! You've paid a half million dollars in taxes, and yet your pissed cause of housing prices... Oh and you think my buying $80K homes in phoenix that rent for $1100 has driven up home prices in the bay area.... right! real smart in addition to a liar too!

8. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   17   10:16am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (4)   Darrel the dumba$$, anyone with half a brain could look up my name on the county records and verify everything I post. Guess that counts you out. Sorry you missed your chance to buy here in Phoenix, maybe I'll buy a trailer next and rent it to you! would you prefer Florence, or Casa Grande?

9. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   18   10:42am Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Darrel the dumba$$, anyone with half a brain could look up my name on the county records and verify everything I post. Guess that counts you out. Sorry you missed your chance to buy here in Phoenix, maybe I'll buy a trailer next and rent it to you! would you prefer Florence, or Casa Grande? Make sure you put him on speed dial Darrel and don't hesitate to call him in the midnight hours to complain about the clogged toilet, the noisy rain gutters, and the leaky roof. Don't do them all at once, trickle them out over time for their best effect.

10. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    19   12:09pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell, Do you pay taxes in Arizona? How about in that community college district over there? Are you getting your fare value for what you pay, for that person who boasted about the high pay and low work hours? Maybe he's such an awesome Professor and he's got the job down so well that he has time for the blog and the real estate. Certainly did boast about the pay on a different thread. Maybe ratemyprofessors.com will give you some insight about your taxpayer value.

11. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    20   12:27pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   robertoaribas says Darrel the dumba$$, anyone with half a brain could look up my name on the county records and verify everything I post. Guess that counts you out. Sorry you missed your chance to buy here in Phoenix, maybe I'll buy a trailer next and rent it to you! would you prefer Florence, or Casa Grande? Very becoming, very professional ProfessorialSpeak.

12. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    21   1:03pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   B.A.C.A.H. says Darrell, Do you pay taxes in Arizona? How about in that community college district over there? Are you getting your fare value for what you pay, for that person who boasted about the high pay and low work hours? Maybe he's such an awesome Professor and he's got the job down so well that he has time for the blog and the real estate. Certainly did boast about the pay on a different thread. Maybe ratemyprofessors.com will give you some insight about your taxpayer value. Don't bother asking Darrell. His supposed current place of residence is just a ruse to wind up Roberto. He'll move on to somewhere else when he gets bored. How about Monterey? It's very nice here.

13. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    22   1:18pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   B.A.C.A.H. says robertoaribas says Darrel the dumba$$, anyone with half a brain could look up my name on the county records and verify everything I post. Guess that counts you out. Sorry you missed your chance to buy here in Phoenix, maybe I'll buy a trailer next and rent it to you! would you prefer Florence, or Casa Grande? Very becoming, very professional ProfessorialSpeak. Lets see: I post a thread with a ton of facts, and thought put into it, darrel follows EVERYTHING I post by calling me a liar. He has never posted a fact ever, not once in 100 posts... and yet, you call me out for being unprofessional... yeah, I should have infinite patience for his idiotic insulting nonsense...

14. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    23   1:25pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   robertoaribas says Lets see: I post a thread with a ton of facts, and thought put into it, darrel follows EVERYTHING I post by calling me a liar. He has never posted a fact ever, not once in 100 posts... and yet, you call me out for being unprofessional... yeah, I should have infinite patience for his idiotic insulting nonsense... He's made a lot more than a hundred posts, but strangely, he never mentioned living in Phoenix whilst posting as Realtors are Liars et al.

15. mell Follow Befriend (5) 57 threads 1,324 comments Premium

    24   2:36pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   Facebooksux says My definition of rich is not having to work for a living. Mitt Romney Buffett Zuckfuck Soros, etc etc. I have a job that I put a lot of hours into but I need to keep working. I am very fortunate that I have a great income, but I'm not "rich." With that amount of money you should be able to at least semi retire and not have to work again, but on a slimmed down lifestyle. Also, if you have family, wife and kid(s) will prevent you from doing so, in the never ending competition on who has the nicer house, cars, kids toys, electronic gimmick gadget. You'd have to train em well and put them in their place, willing to sever ties if necessary, then retiring within 10-15 years should be fairly easy with that income. It all depends on whether you decide to participate in the rat race or not. I'd say accumulated liquid funds north of 2 million $$ should allow you to semi-retire, esp. if yo don't blow it on a "nice" house (cardboard box). The things you own end up owning you.

16. Facebooksux Follow Befriend (3) 2 threads 236 comments Mountain View, CA

    25   3:24pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   KILLERJANE says This whole site has become a bitchfest. Where is the gained insight from all this? Just keep your blinders on! Common sense is a myth. YAMS AND AMMUNITION

17. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    26   5:13pm Mon 3 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Facebooksux says KILLERJANE says This whole site has become a bitchfest. Where is the gained insight from all this? Just keep your blinders on! Common sense is a myth. YAMS AND AMMUNITION And Phoenix sucks big time.

18. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    27   7:53am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   KILLERJANE says I think if you are buying dirt cheap in Phoenix and getting good rent ROI. why even think of selling at all? I bought a cheap place and get almst 2% of the purchase in monthly rent. Yields 15% after expenses annually per Patricks calc. I never want to sell. It is my retirement supplement. Why do you want to sell? Just keep your blinders on! Common sense is a myth. That is the situation today, Add in a year of bad tenants that trash the place, followed by a 20-30% drop in equity to the point you have none. Then after you dump 10K into the place to get it rentable again you quickly find the rental market has dried up and it take you 2 years just to recoup your fix-up costs. Lets see what you think about supplement when that happens. This country is living on a borrowed dream. Nothing the GOP or Fed can do will stop this run-away train. Smile now, but remember you smile is being sponsored by the foolish taxpayers blood. Soon the blood will dry up and all that will be left is dying organs packaged in soiled old skin. This pig will come to roast. Wait for it...

19. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 755 threads 2,590 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    28   7:56am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RentingForHalfTheCost says That is the situation today, Add in a year of bad tenants that trash the place, followed by a 20-30% drop in equity to the point you have none. Then after you dump 10K into the place to get it rentable again you quickly find the rental market has dried up and it take you 2 years just to recoup your fix-up costs. Lets see what you think about supplement when that happens. If the 1 percent and the hedge funds are now buying this real estate, they will undercut the rental prices for awhile, washing out many smaller investors. Then they will jack up the rates. I wrote an article on BI that they even want to securitize the rents like CDO's! That should screw everyone down the line.

20. 2k12 Follow Befriend 2 threads 20 comments

    29   8:13am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Aribas loses his credibility because of his childish attacks if anyone disagrees with him.

21. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    30   8:39am Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   2k12 says Aribas loses his credibility because of his childish attacks if anyone disagrees with him. sure. If someone disagrees with me, we have a discussion. If someone follows me around insulting everything about me, from my looks, my life, my city, etc, calling every fact I post a lie without any other data, without ever adding a shred to any discussion whatsoever, they deserve the insults... Are you smart enough to know the difference?

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    31   6:05pm Tue 4 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well, good thing I didn't sell anything! Asking prices in Phoenix resumed/continued their upward climb, per housingtracker.net! The bottom 1/3, which obviously is most appropriate for my investments, went up a whopping $5000 month over month. What does $5000*11 = again? (2 of mine are not in the bottom third, hence not in this multiplication) www.housingtracker.net

23. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    32   5:04am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Facebooksux says I'm not rich. If I were I wouldn't be following this awesome website. What I would like to do is parlay my hard earned money into a nice house for myself and my parents but the market here is full on batshit crazy. Trust there are plenty of truly rich people following this list, (remember one thing: honestly rich people aren't stupid) only fools rush in. As for the market being batshite crazy? It is batshite crazy coast to coast. Hang in there slowly but surely what goes around comes around.

24. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    33   7:13am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Reader says Trust there are plenty of truly rich people following this list, (remember one thing: honestly rich people aren't stupid) only fools rush in. As for the market being batshite crazy? It is batshite crazy coast to coast. Hang in there slowly but surely what goes around comes around. 'Batshite crazy from coast to coast.' I don't think so. Most of the US has very affordable housing, and then there are areas that are very expensive. What a shocker.

25. 2k12 Follow Befriend 2 threads 20 comments

    34   7:44am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I live in the Phoenix area and invest in Single Family Homes .Buyer beware Aribas is lying.From everything from the climate to ROI.His juvenile attacks and insults proves he does not want an educated discussion.MLS inventory has been climbing consistently and prices have already spiked.

26. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    35   8:10am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   2k12 says I live in the Phoenix area and invest in Single Family Homes .Buyer beware Aribas is lying.From everything from the climate to ROI.His juvenile attacks and insults proves he does not want an educated discussion.MLS inventory has been climbing consistently and prices have already spiked. I notice the anonymous trolling douche bags say " I say prices are falling blah blah blah..." but never have any actual data... hmmm, I wonder why that is? I wonder why case-shiller index shows prices increasing? I wonder why housingtracker.net shows listing prices increasing? I wonder why ASU school of business shows prices increasing?

27. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,643 comments

    36   9:31am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says How many times does this need to be explained to you? CS excludes REO and defaulted property. Prices are falling when they're included. Are you that obtuse? If I'm selling a house--why do I care? Obviously the REOs aren't having a large effect on non-REO prices, so who cares?

28. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,643 comments

    37   9:44am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Because they're excluded from the indices. Catching on yet? Yes, I'm catching on to the fact that you are a troll...

29. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    38   10:23am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Of course your retort is personal attack. You can't refute the truth so you divert to name calling. Well done. Ho, ho, ho. Did you laugh when you typed that?

30. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    39   10:31am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says You can't refute it either. Refute what? Nearly every single one of your posts, including as all your aliases, involves an insult and here you are posting that nonsense. Give me strength. Why not get a job or just grow up because trolling a real estate forum is about as pointless as you can get.

31. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    40   10:42am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here we go again. There's nothing to refute. You should simply be banned as you were before.

32. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    41   11:26am Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Of course you can't refute the truth. What truth would that be? Explain away. Another long wait will no doubt ensue.

33. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    42   12:21pm Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Refute it. Go on now. Refute what? That you don't actually live in Phoenix? Why would I refute that?

34. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,845 comments

    43   12:52pm Wed 5 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   congrats to Roberto.. he had some great luck .. heavy media attention and overbuilding certainly depressed the prices...a bounce back to a norm isnt too bad.. Hopefully we wont be seeing new bubbles form, it will certainly help the AZ economy move forward with job growth and the people learned something about speculating (overpricing) real estate.

35. ordertaker Follow Befriend (1) 7 threads 70 comments Vero Beach, FL

    44   6:50am Thu 6 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I am getting calls from people who want to be notified if the house I currently have under contract falls through for any reason. Crazy. Someone even asked if it was going to be flipped by the new owner. It's not that special. Now I'm sort of questioning whether I should have rented it out again rather than selling when the tenants moved, but it was never meant to be a rental (I used to live in it and overimproved it.) If we're in the bubble I think we might be in, I'll be glad I sold. The Mom and Pop investors are back in the market and that makes me say sell now. They are all trying to become landlords and that has to drive rents down.

36. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    45   9:02am Fri 7 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Math Professor is all about facts. Being a Realtor is exactly opposite of that,always falsify the facts. I don't know how you can play that double roll in your life!

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    46   4:12pm Fri 7 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says Math Professor is all about facts. Being a Realtor is exactly opposite of that,always falsify the facts. I don't know how you can play that double roll in your life! I'm always honest about facts, which often hurts my job as a realtor...

38. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    47   4:15pm Fri 7 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bubblesitter says Math Professor is all about facts. Being a Realtor is exactly opposite of that,always falsify the facts. I don't know how you can play that double roll in your life! I'm always honest about facts, which often hurts my job as a realtor...

39. dhmartens Follow Befriend (1) 11 threads 50 comments Reseda, CA

    48   9:19am Thu 13 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Even a broken clock is right twice a day. The poster should come out pretty good, even with the 50% drop expected.

40. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    49   10:31am Thu 13 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says bubblesitter says Math Professor is all about facts. Being a Realtor is exactly opposite of that,always falsify the facts. I don't know how you can play that double roll in your life! I'm always honest about facts, which often hurts my job as a realtor... Something like,"I can't lie?" - Liar Liar.

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