WatchAll numbers from RealClearPolitics polling averages
Florida--Obama +3.1
Ohio--Obama +5.2
Virginia--Obama +4.5
New Hampshire--Obama +1.0
Iowa--Obama +4.0
Colorado--Obama +2.3
Wisconsin--Obama +7.8
Michigan--Obama +8.6
Pennsylvania--Obama +8.2
Nevada--Obama +4.2
North Carolina--Obama +1.0
Missouri--Romney +7.3
Intrade odds have Obama 74.1 to Romney 26.0
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http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
Shows Romney way ahead.
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How did the unskewed predictions do in 2008?
Because the "skewed" polls did pretty damn well.
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tatupu70 says
Riiiiggghhhtttt......
This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328555/mornings-polls-project-more-heavily-democratic-electorates-2008#
See how it works.... if you don't like the results of the poll, just go out and find more Dems, and then you get the results you want....
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From the article:
............"This morning, surveys from the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac puts Obama ahead by 10 in Ohio, up by 12 in Pennsylvania, and up by 9 in Florida."
"Since the issue of whether the party ID within polling samples is realistic seems to be the issue of the week, let’s take a look at how these samples stack up to the 2008 exit polls."
...."Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008."
....."Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Somehow a D+7 split has turned into D+11 split, and Republicans’ share of the electorate is nine percentage points less than they were four years ago."
......"Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
Each party’s share only shifts a few percentage points, but the overall split goes from D+3 to D+9."
************************
Just keep believing that the polls aren't skewed!!
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I hang up on the political polling phone calls.
I think most people that are disillusioned by the democratic process, by the sheer meddling by the Liberals feel the same way.
In other words it's none of their damn business who I'm voting for.
Romney will likely have a 10 point lead in many states these POLLS think Obama will have a 5 point lead.
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Romney is completely out of touch with most Americans.
I don't know why the Republican party would nominate a corporate raider for president. But I guess it's "anyone but Obama!" among the Republican base.
Keep government out of my Medicare!
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Polls are easily manipulated to get desired results.
Guy on phone: do you think Obama is the devil?
Me: no
Guy on phone's poll shows 99% of Americans support Obama.
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edvard2 says
Yes exactly.
Guy on phone: do you support Communism?
Me: no
Guy on phone's poll shows 99% of Americans support Romney.
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freak80 says
I don't think the Repubs "nominated" anyone.... it was what they were "told" to do.....
Truly think about this point....... We have a country of like 330 MILLION people and the BEST we can come up with to lead this country is either Obama or Romney.....
REALLY!!!!!!
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freak80 says
Hah ha ha!!!!
Yeah that's it, the Republicans nominated Romney.
Because it was Fox news that hosted the debates and asked the questions. While the Liberal media just sat back and watched the Democratic process unfurl. Wasn't a Liberal campaign to systematically build each candidate up as the leader, then destroy them the next day, while skipping Ron Paul all together. Other than taking sound bytes out of context and calling his supporters Paulbots, and reporting Ron Paul is the Devil that wants to destroy what little Obama has left of this country.
No siree it was all on the UP and UP, Romney won the Primaries Because he is a capable statesman with brilliant ideas. Uh HUH!
He's the Liberal candidate, he will win and the Democrats deserve him.
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Call it Crazy says
Why do you think people like Steve Wozniak are leaving the USA?
The writing is on the wall.
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freak80 says
Very true. That's why you have to look at a polling company's history to see how accurately their polling conforms to the actual results.
And it's also why you use the average of many polls.
The data in the thread are polling averages.
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freak80 says
Maybe he likes kangaroos. Or koalas.
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Bigsby says
I hear they taste just like chicken...
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2010 both parties in dead heat.
This year, GOP advantage in party affiliation.
Yet, pollsters are sampling Democrats at +7 or more.
And despite that, and the media's insistence that every week is Romney's worst week, Obama's lead is +1 to +3 and within the margins.
Yeah, nothing to see here. Nothing at all. Lol.
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Baltimore, MD
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
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Quick, open an account for $500 with IEM. It's legit, and has been around for several election cycles.
All of you who claim it's a close race,...
YOU CAN GET 4:1 ODDS BETTING ON ROMNEY. THAT's RIGHT !! BET $500, and you get $2000 if he wins (or just under), and you lose $500 if Obama wins.
The money seems to think it isn't that close. But if you think it is, this is a great opportunity.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html
This is an example of fact based reality I never hear a response to. I'm guessing that's because your position is something like this:
"My reality is actually a fantasy bubble of things I imagine to be true. I've found that basing bets on my fantasy perception of reality is not wise."
Therefore, at least on some level, you know what's what, it's just that you prefer to view things through the prism of lies that the right wing bases its existence on.
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zzyzzx says
That is a big Ole wet dream, the Liberals are going to wake up any minute now with mystery sauce on their bellies, three hours late for work.
He's the way I see it breaks down.
Obama's supporters are so passionate about Obama, they will click on every Poll and Poll the same poll often. But they are far fewer than in 2008. Not even close, they seem like a large number, well in part because the media controls the information. And the media wants another Kumbya moment like 2008 but the sheer numbers with blind faith just isn't there. There is a large number that thinks Obama is better than Romney because the media has conditioned them so. But will they be motivated to actually get out and vote? I highly doubt it.
If you want to see a motivated lot, watch Romney's voters, they aren't even thrilled with him. They are motivated to Vote against Obama, not so much for Romney. And they are as passionate about it as the "Change" crowd were to vote him in, 4 years ago.
So even though Romney most definitely get the Nod and WILL be the next president. The majority of his Voters, just aren't as motivated about voting for him, to even spend one single second talking about it with a pollster. Perhaps if a poll were to ask who will you be voting against, we might get a more honest accurate poll.
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That's your dream.
4:1 you can get if you only had the balls to put your money where your mouth is.
Although this probably is the pre debate low right in here for Romney. And there might not be time to open an account before the debate bounce starts (probably before the debate).
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm
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marcus says
That's just it. Anyone can say "I believe that X will happen." But will they bet money on those beliefs?
Romney is toast. His recent comments show just how out-of-touch he is. Why the RNC thought they should nominate a corporate raider for president (in the middle of a massive depression) is beyond me. Romney will get 100% of the "hate Obama vote" and that's it. It won't be enough to win.
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zzyzzx says
Oh noes! We're getting creamed! *ph33r*
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freak80 says
Well, if I remember the Republican primary correctly, it was robot vs lunatic vs embodied id vs aging crank vs moron vs lunatic #2
That's romney, santorum, gingritch, paul, perry, bachman if you've blocked out the memory. Of those, Romney was probably the least bad. Huntsman or Pawlenty might well have been better but they weren't willing to conform to the alternate reality that the republican base lives in...
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marcus says
Unfortunately, if you bet on Obama, you'll probably lose your job, your house, your 401K, your IRA and your life savings....
It's your bet!!
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leo707's website
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freak80 says
Yep, but with the confidence that some people on this site state that Romney is going to win they should be betting the farm.
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bdrasin says
That leaves out Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico, who went on to win the Libertarian Party nomination for President. It also leaves out former Governor of Louisiana and former U.S. Representative Buddy Roemer, who was shut out of the debates and ended his campaign. And it leaves out a pizza guy named Herman Cain, whose campaign manager gained fame by blowing smoke into the camera; he seemed to be angling for the pizza-eating-adulterers-who-smoke-and-are-proud-of-all-that vote, which is a significant number of people when you think about it.
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curious2 says
How could I have forgotten the Hermanator! I admit to having a soft spot for him because
1) He attended my alma mater, and
2) He had this refreshing way of just blurting out any idea that popped into his head
Nice guy, good radio host...but c'mon, really!
I'll admit I don't know anything about Gary Johnson or Buddy Roemer.
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bdrasin says
Gary Johnson was possibly the Republicans' best candidate, though within the party he was eclipsed on the libertarian side by the more famous Ron Paul. Now that former former Governor Johnson has the Libertarian nomination, he will likely get millions of votes from Republicans who had voted for Rep. Paul in the primaries.
I don't know as much about former Governor Roemer's campaign, it didn't take off as well.
I wouldn't call Herman Cain a nice guy though. I started out thinking highly of him, until I learned about his policies.
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For all the folks here bashing these biased polls, you do realize that many of them are in the polling business. They make money doing polls for the private market.
There financial reputations are at stake. They very much want to be accurate.
CaptainShuddup says
Fuck, I wish you had that attitude with us.
Get a job and stop boring us with your whines.. Oh, that's right - no one wants to hire an old programmer. Obama and the liberals fault, right? Certainly not your fault!
Just teasing, Captain. Glad to have you back from your hiatus!
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Lots of places are happy hiring old programmers. Far fewer would hire a programmer who acts old.
Tired, crotchety, bitter: experience trumps age for those who are the opposite of these things.
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bdrasin says
Fair enough.
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Vote for Obama if you care the following:
1. Enjoy the life today and tomorrow, not care about the future. Obama will help you suck the money out of the “superrich” and redistribute to you if you happen to be one of the victims of other people’s success.
2. You are unemployed, but have no interest to get a job as long as you can get food stamps.
3. Your house equity is underwater. You don’t care to get out, but rather enjoy squat.
4. You don’t want to work hard, but rather hide behind a union so you can get paid well before the employer bankrupt or moving overseas.
5. You don’t care about your kids’ school performance as long as the teacher get paid well regardless performance.
Don’t vote for Romney, he said too much truth which we don’t want to handle or even to hear about. Who cares if US business is competitive, who cares U.S. is safe, who cares the big national debt and who cares if our children will have to pay for our irresponsibility.
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You forgot to mention anything about communism , socialism, and so on.
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BobMSN says
It's very interesting to me how people who hate Obama see in him a one-dimensional caricature of lazy "socialists".
It's intense hate and fear (same emotion really) because they see their own position in society slipping and don't quite understand why it is happening. Must be the black guy's fault! Couldn't have anything to do with eight years of Bush tax cuts for the super-rich, unnecessary wars, and corporate raiding via government office, because Bush was white...
And that hate and fear is super-stoked with propoganda by the exact people that are causing his position in society to slip by exporting his job to China, evading taxes, eliminating the possibility of financial security in the face of medical bills, etc etc.
So they scream "God damn it, if you limousine liberals keep trying to stop the forced transfer of wealth from the middle class to the very top we're going to show you! We're going to cut your taxes!"
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BobMSN says
Well, you are right about this.
Romney is certainly willing to tell anyone any "truth" that he thinks they want to hear, and that is a lot of truth. And, as we know every "truth" told to someone is something another does not want to hear.
Oh what a tangled web Romney weaves when he *er*...tells to many conflicting "truths".
I would say he has way too much "truth" for my tastes, so yes I will take your advice and not vote for him.
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Vote for Obama if you care the following:
1. Enjoy the life today and tomorrow, not care about the future. Obama will help you suck the money out of the “superrich” and redistribute to you if you happen to be one of the victims of other people’s success.
2. You are unemployed, but have no interest to get a job as long as you can get food stamps.
3. Your house equity is underwater. You don’t care to get out, but rather enjoy squat.
4. You don’t want to work hard, but rather hide behind a union so you can get paid well before the employer bankrupt or moving overseas.
5. You don’t care about your kids’ school performance as long as the union teacher get paid well regardless performance.
Don’t vote for Romney, he said too much truth which we don’t want to handle or even to hear about. Who cares if US business is competitive? who cares U.S. is safe? who cares the big national debt and who cares if our children will have to pay for our irresponsibility?
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.BobMSN says
I don't think Romney has ever said anything in his life where he didn't say exactly the opposite years, months, or even days prior.
If you have a grasp on this "truth", you're the only one.
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Patrick says
I agree. It's completely insane.
But when one party says, "if you don't vote for us, you're an idiot" (while simultaneously mocking everything you hold sacred) and the other party says, "those people think you are idiots", which party do you vote for?
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Patrick says
Mind you I'm no conspiracy theorist but I'm really starting to wonder if it was a coincidence that a black man was handed this shit storm.