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Question about Fremont area(Mission school district)

By ran   Follow   Thu, 27 Sep 2012, 3:49pm   1,986 views   24 comments
In Fremont CA 94539   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Hi,

I am wondering if any one here has some knowledge about Fremont's Mission School district. We went to few open houses recently and found that any descent house with 4 bedrooms is more than $900,000. Looks like this area has gone up instead of going down even in real estate downturn. Any guess about the near future trend?

Thanks

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1. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

   1   3:56pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   What would it cost to rent a 4 BR house there? Wait, I have some statistics. Looks like a 4 BR in 94539 should rent for about $2,700 per month. You would be WAY better off renting than buying there: http://patrick.net/calculator.php?uaddr=%2C+&rent=2700&price=900000

2. ran Follow Befriend 2 threads 13 comments

   2   4:03pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Thanks Patrick. I see this "Actual value is $386,994. Do not pay $900,000. " According to this, current price is way way off.

3. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

   3   5:20pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It depends on your assumptions. See "Change Assumptions" at the bottom. Even with a relatively generous assumption of 2% appreciation over 7 years, it's still a lousy deal at $900K.

4. SiO2 Follow Befriend 3 threads 189 comments

   4   6:47pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Is 95439 all in msj district? If not, then the rent is too low, as the original poster is looking just for msj area. One may or may not prefer msj to the other areas, but it's true that msj does cost more. Btw there is a specific risk in owning in msj area. The high school attendance boundaries could change, and then you are screwed. Even if you don't have kids, the house value would drop. This has actually happened. The risk is present because msj is more highly regarded than the others. The risk would not exist in palo alto as paly and gunn are both highly regarded, and changing actual district boundaries is unusual.

5. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,534 comments Los Angeles, CA

   5   7:05pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   At 900k with 20% down payment you can live there for $1800 a month int only payment with additional prop tax of 938 a month for a total of 2738 a month to OWN IT. But owning gives you tax write off on the int and tax so actually you will own it for under $2000 a month as long as you have income to write off. Thus you see why its 900k. Its cheaper to own by a huge factor. Patricks calculator says the same thing. He just doesnt want to factor in 5 year ARM IO rate of 3% (with no points even). Its not a crazy loan - its how you buy.

6. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

   6   7:24pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   ran says Any guess about the near future trend? Prices in MSJ will likely trend up.

7. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

   7   7:45pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Prices in MSJ will likely trend down.

8. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,220 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   8   8:51pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   PockyClipsNow says At 900k with 20% down payment you can live there for $1800 a month int only payment with additional prop tax of 938 a month for a total of 2738 a month to OWN IT. But owning gives you tax write off on the int and tax so actually you will own it for under $2000 a month as long as you have income to write off. Thus you see why its 900k. Its cheaper to own by a huge factor. Patricks calculator says the same thing. He just doesnt want to factor in 5 year ARM IO rate of 3% (with no points even). Its not a crazy loan - its how you buy. You conveniently forgot the closing costs, the selling costs, the maintenance costs, the potential depreciation and just how screwed you'll be if interest rates don't continue their downward trend or if anyone in the household loses a job.

9. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

   9   9:01pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   PockyClipsNow says Thus you see why its 900k. Its cheaper to own by a huge factor. Patricks calculator says the same thing. No, my calculator says no such thing. You ignore all sorts of things, like oh, maintenance, and the fact that every penny in the downpayment is at risk (leveraged risk, which is worse). And you really think you're going to get a $700K loan at 3%? $2700 per month is about equivalent to owning a $500K house.

10. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    10   9:08pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   New Renter says You conveniently forgot the closing costs, the selling costs, the maintenance costs, the potential depreciation and just how screwed you'll be if interest rates don't continue their downward trend or if anyone in the household loses a job. Right!

11. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    11   10:08pm Thu 27 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Patrick says $2700 per month is about equivalent to owning a $500K house. That's not correct. Your calculator says it is equivalent to $387k. What's the likelihood this house will sell for $387k in the next 10, 20, 30 or your lifetime? High, moderate, or low?

12. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    12   12:25am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Ran, Besides MSJ, are you looking at other areas? Or cheaper areas are considered deal breakers?

13. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    13   4:31am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   E-man says Your calculator says it is equivalent to $387k. In my opinion that is all that house is max in that area is $200K on a good day so in my opinion the rent is even grossly high. Let alone $900K in the Mission?! It appears there are a number of people in the Mission who are attracted to bright colours and flashy things who would blindly go for the illusion of "riches" and try to ask anything for a place thinking in their own minds they have the next coming of Hearst Castle but this is just a bit too glaring.

14. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    14   4:38am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   PockyClipsNow says Thus you see why its 900k. Its cheaper to own by a huge factor. Yes, go $1M in debt to avoid a $100. a month expense ROFL seriously WHAT ARE YOU ON? ALERT: NO ONE FALLS FOR THAT KIND OF SHITE ANYMORE.

15. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    15   9:16am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   E-man says Patrick says $2700 per month is about equivalent to owning a $500K house. That's not correct. Your calculator says it is equivalent to $387k. What's the likelihood this house will sell for $387k in the next 10, 20, 30 or your lifetime? High, moderate, or low? Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure. My point is that while some other suicidal lemming might overpay for it, you can rent the same thing much more cheaply and save a ton of money. Some want the warm and fuzzy feeling over ownership, while others prefer to have a lot of cold hard cash.

16. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 11 threads 775 comments Dublin, CA

    16   9:58am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   94539 is divided into mission san jose and irvington - make sure you find out what school your residence belongs too. Overall, I would be careful there, there have been robberies even in the nice vineyard hills district - lots of houses got hit even in broad daylight. Fremont in general has gone downhill.

17. MSJ 1977 WARRIORS Follow Befriend 1 comments

    17   11:56am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I find it funny how outsiders who never owned real estate in Mission San Jose are commenting about the area, especially dublin hillz! Way back in 1972, my parents bought a new semi custom home in the Kimber Park area of MSJ, they paid over $100K for it, it now can easily list for 1.5 million. dublin is only know for its largest employer SANTA RITA JAIL, and dublin has always been known the seedy arm pit of Pleasanton! The affluent Chinese have know problem purchasing estates in the MSJ area with ca$h! People who slam MSJ do so, because they simply can't afford it!, perhaps they should move to El Crapo dublin!

18. supersunken Follow Befriend 6 threads 18 comments Cupertino, CA

    18   12:39pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Except for the fact Dublin is now up and coming and the prices have really grown from a couple of years ago.

19. ran Follow Befriend 2 threads 13 comments

    19   5:45pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says Ran, Besides MSJ, are you looking at other areas? Or cheaper areas are considered deal breakers? Statistics without informed context are usually worthless, easily manipulated and often misleading. SFace, who doesn't want less expensive house? Our requirement is south bay or Fremont because of commute. Since Cupertino is too expensive we were thinking about MSJ.

20. SiO2 Follow Befriend 3 threads 189 comments

    20   5:56pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ran, consider the Cambrian area. Union schools + Leigh High are pretty good. Cheaper than MSJ. Depending on your work location it could be a faster commute than Fremont. MSJ is closer to a lot of jobs, but 237/680 is really jammed. 237 E is jammed even at 7:30 PM.

21. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    21   6:33pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   ran says SFace, who doesn't want less expensive house? Our requirement is south bay or Fremont because of commute. Since Cupertino is too expensive we were thinking about MSJ. That's what the calculator don't tell you, the social aspect. Cupertino or MSJ. The demand is fairly inelastic. That is why MSJ price will be the last to drop and first to rise. Would Fremont/Union City be a deal breaker, that is certainly cheaper?

22. ran Follow Befriend 2 threads 13 comments

    22   10:20pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Union City will be too far and we are not too excited about Fremont's non-msj schools.

23. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    23   11:33pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   ran says Union City will be too far and we are not too excited about Fremont's non-msj schools. Everything in life has a price. There is no free lunch. Don't take it the wrong way. I had to figure it out the hard way. In 2003, I thought about buying a small house in Palo Alto. House prices were insane so I ended up buying a bigger house in Milpitas. Also, I felt that I wouldn't fit into that neighborhood. 9 years later, the house in Palo Alto has appreciated more than the house in Milpitas. I guess location and schools do play a big factor in home prices due to them being a pass through cost. However, my perspective in life has changed since then. If schools are your priority, you'd have to pay a premium on home prices in these areas. Good luck with house hunting.

24. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,220 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    24   1:07pm Mon 1 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   E-man says ran says Union City will be too far and we are not too excited about Fremont's non-msj schools. Everything in life has a price. There is no free lunch. Don't take it the wrong way. I had to figure it out the hard way. In 2003, I thought about buying a small house in Palo Alto. House prices were insane so I ended up buying a bigger house in Milpitas. Also, I felt that I wouldn't fit into that neighborhood. 9 years later, the house in Palo Alto has appreciated more than the house in Milpitas. I guess location and schools do play a big factor in home prices due to them being a pass through cost. However, my perspective in life has changed since then. If schools are your priority, you'd have to pay a premium on home prices in these areas. Good luck with house hunting. Sounds to me like PA offers free lunches to its residents. Just buy now, sell later and HELOC your meals