Patrick.net

phoenix az

By PC   Follow   Fri, 28 Sep 2012, 6:24am   1,791 views   28 comments
Watch (2)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

there is something going on here in phx. I asked 2 realtors to send me listings on a pretty large area: from 3rd ave to 40th st. and south of glendale to indian school. one sent nothing and the other sent ONE. I said I couldnt believe in that large area only ONE house for sale? top price was $150. Ive been following this area daily for 5 yrs. all of the "good" deals were bought at a steal before they even hit the market. Ive posted about even realtors telling me they were "locked out" of the deals. everything is at a standstill here..is it the quiet before the storm? I think so...but will prices go up or down is anyones guess. and its not just the 1% that have been buying. many of my nabors own 5-10 homes here. In my area I know there is at least one home per street that is vacant (without even a renter). anyone else in the phx area noticing anything? please post about it.

Viewing Comments 1-28 of 28     Last »     See most liked comments

1. exflirt Follow Befriend (1) 43 comments Chandler, AZ

   1   9:45am Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   I’m in the PHX area patiently waiting for the right time to buy a house and noticing crazy stuff from just 6 months ago. There is almost nothing to purchase and what does hit the market is gone in a flash. Good thing I’m in a nice apartment and really enjoy the community. I only get a house that meets my criteria about once a month now. Used to be numerous houses every day would hit the market that I would consider, only I was going through some life changes and not in a position to purchase. Am looking for a newer house in Chandler, smallish with a pool, 3-car garage under 250K. I know not every house is going to match that criteria - but come on, seriously, one per month?!? Prices are dramatically higher than they were just 6 months ago. I'm not playing that game, just watching until things settle down. I know that most current purchases are not made by a homeowner, so that tells me that there are further changes coming to this market and it would not be in my interests to gamble with it right now.

2. PC Follow Befriend 4 threads 6 comments Sun City, AZ

   2   4:06pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I totally agree with you. and on the other hand, Im a seller, and theyre (realterds)telling me Im still down about 50%! from what I paid in 08! so if youre a buyer just wait... and if youre a seller just wait in the meantime, were both in the dark

3. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,534 comments Los Angeles, CA

   3   4:25pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   two factors here that WILL NOT CHANGE SOON (like 3 years per bananke) 1. low int rates for mortgages means owning is 50% cheaper than renting. do the math with a 3% mortgage (20% down) 2. low int rates mean investors buy with 3% mortgage and make a 8-12% return. paying cash also gives a high return like 12% or so. AGAIN the low rates are forcing people out of CD's that pay ZERO to buy up the highest yeidling asset. This will continue until 1. rates go up 2. prices go up 3. combo of both. low rates have caused SFR's to be a wall street commodity now - you as a buyer are not competing with other people like you but hedge funds, govt employee pension plans, small investors (roberto/iwog), large REITs etc. Consider buying over 600k you will have little competion if any from investors. Just lever in with a 3% IO ARM loan - payment will be 1200 a month to finance 480k (prop tax doesnt count as the int/tax combined write off cancel it out)

4. matthew79 Follow Befriend 2 threads 9 comments Surprise, AZ

   4   5:23pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It sounds like you are looking around the Biltmore/Arcadia area. What is your price range? A lot of that area (as I'm sure you know) is a bit pricey so maybe that has something to do with it and not the "stand still" that you may think.

5. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

   5   5:35pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   If there is nothing to buy prices must go up. The question is how much and for how long. My guess...a home in Phoenix selling for $100,000 last year will be priced at $250,000 by Dec 30, 2013. Also expect a huge construction boom.

6. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,534 comments Los Angeles, CA

   6   6:18pm Fri 28 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Raw is right. The bubble is ON! I made a so much money during the last bubble, this time I hope to double it.

7. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

   7   4:12am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   I think you all need a heavy dose of reality.

8. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   8   4:36am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says If there is nothing to buy prices must go up. The question is how much and for how long. My guess...a home in Phoenix selling for $100,000 last year will be priced at $250,000 by Dec 30, 2013. Also expect a huge construction boom. I take it that's tongue-in-cheek. If not, why would they increase by anything near that amount? I saw a historical graph for Phoenix that seemed to show the decline had led to an over-correction on the down side, so in that context and given the current low interest rates and supply, strong rises are understandable in the short-term. YoY is 16% or so, isn't it? That's obviously not sustainable in the longer term. But your prediction... that's an altogether different ballpark.

9. Bruce Ailion Follow Befriend 11 comments Marietta, GA

   9   5:48am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I've got some news for all of you, you will never again see FHA at 3.0 for a 30 year fixed rate or 2.5 for a 15 year fixed rate loan. This is a major opportunity to make money. My first conventional loan in 1981 was at a 17.875% and guess what I made money on that triplex. Prices even in Phoenix are at 50% of replacement costs and if population continues to grow as it is eventually people will need to buy homes at replacement cost. That means a 50% increase in your values. There has NEVER been a better time to buy. Short of a nuclear war, plague, asteroid hit, those that purchased today will we showered with wealth tomorrow. For those of you who miss this train, crying about the state of affairs today, you will still be sobbing tomorrow but instead of having low rent or low mortgage payments having high rent or high mortgage payments. Bless the FED for providing an environment where my children and their friends can lock in low housing costs for the next 15 to 20 years.

10. PhoenixJoe Follow Befriend (1) 1 comments

    10   5:56am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bruce Ailion says Prices even in Phoenix are at 50% of replacement costs Which is how much?

11. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    11   8:52am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Raw says If there is nothing to buy prices must go up. Wrong. Prices are going up because the inventory is being gobbled by the 1 percent in a calculated bet to raise prices. But it is an unsustainable bubble not based on true demand. So yes, prices go up, but we will see how long they will go up and we will see if the millionaires catch wind that the billionaires are doing this. I believe the billionaires want the millionaires to be the greater fool this time.

12. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    12   8:55am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   exflirt says I’m in the PHX area patiently waiting for the right time to buy a house and noticing crazy stuff from just 6 months ago. There is almost nothing to purchase and what does hit the market is gone in a flash. Good thing I’m in a nice apartment and really enjoy the community. The 1 percent and hedge funds are buying up all the real estate. I wrote two articles about it: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-bubble-in-phoenix-is-an-utter-fraud-and-scam-2012-9 and: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-1-percent-is-buying-up-all-the-real-estate-beware-of-tom-lee-of-jpm-2012-5

13. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    13   8:56am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Bruce Ailion says I've got some news for all of you, you will never again see FHA at 3.0 for a 30 year fixed rate or 2.5 for a 15 year fixed rate loan. This is a major opportunity to make money. My first conventional loan in 1981 was at a 17.875% and guess what I made money on that triplex. Prices even in Phoenix are at 50% of replacement costs and if population continues to grow as it is eventually people will need to buy homes at replacement cost. That means a 50% increase in your values. There has NEVER been a better time to buy. Short of a nuclear war, plague, asteroid hit, those that purchased today will we showered with wealth tomorrow. For those of you who miss this train, crying about the state of affairs today, you will still be sobbing tomorrow but instead of having low rent or low mortgage payments having high rent or high mortgage payments. Bless the FED for providing an environment where my children and their friends can lock in low housing costs for the next 15 to 20 years. Train=bubble. Real estate does not always go up. Boomers will be selling like no tomorrow in a few years. I would never bless the Fed. There is still a mortgage depression.

14. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    14   9:00am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says Raw says If there is nothing to buy prices must go up. The question is how much and for how long. My guess...a home in Phoenix selling for $100,000 last year will be priced at $250,000 by Dec 30, 2013. Also expect a huge construction boom. I take it that's tongue-in-cheek. If not, why would they increase by anything near that amount? I saw a historical graph for Phoenix that seemed to show the decline had led to an over-correction on the down side, so in that context and given the current low interest rates and supply, strong rises are understandable in the short-term. YoY is 16% or so, isn't it? That's obviously not sustainable in the longer term. But your prediction... that's an altogether different ballpark. Many homes in Phoenix have almost doubled in value. When the market collapsed, yes, there was an overreaction on the downside, but now that overreaction will be corrected followed by an overreaction on the upside. The median priced home probably won't increase that much, but some neighborhoods I think will. In the long run I don't have much faith in desert homes appreciating beyond the inflation rate.

15. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    15   9:03am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says but now that overreaction will be corrected followed by an overreaction on the upside. The median priced home probably won't increase that much, but some neighborhoods I think will. In the long run I don't have much faith in desert homes appreciating beyond the inflation rate. I agree. Posters are already talking about the train. Well, the train may leave the station, but there is still a mortgage depression. The question is, will the average Joe be able to afford these houses once the lenders decide to lend into this appreciation. I say, no.

16. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    16   9:06am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Raw says If there is nothing to buy prices must go up. Wrong. Prices are going up because the inventory is being gobbled by the 1 percent in a calculated bet to raise prices. But it is an unsustainable bubble not based on true demand. So yes, prices go up, but we will see how long they will go up and we will see if the millionaires catch wind that the billionaires are doing this. I believe the billionaires want the millionaires to be the greater fool this time. Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com I like that last line...creative. Most homes are being purchased by regular people like you and me to live in because interest rates are shockingly low. It is incredibly mush much much cheaper to buy then rent. Betcha this bizarre scenario won't happen for another 50 years, maybe even a 100 years.

17. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,523 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    17   9:10am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Raw, if the multibid situation gets even more crazy, when do you recommended I start killing other bidders? I really need a home, now.

18. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    18   9:11am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Raw says but now that overreaction will be corrected followed by an overreaction on the upside. The median priced home probably won't increase that much, but some neighborhoods I think will. In the long run I don't have much faith in desert homes appreciating beyond the inflation rate. I agree. Posters are already talking about the train. Well, the train may leave the station, but there is still a mortgage depression. The question is, will the average Joe be able to afford these houses once the lenders decide to lend into this appreciation. I say, no. Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com I would say yes. People were buying homes when rates were 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% and even 17% at one time. People just prefer to own their own home, and will pay more than rent if they have to. A home is a castle, and everyone wants one.

19. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    19   9:11am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says Most homes are being purchased by regular people like you and me to live in because interest rates are shockingly low. That is not correct. 41 percent of the real estate purchased last month in Phoenix were by cash buyers. Over 50 percent in Las Vegas. The rest are 3 percent down which have a massive default rate http://www.trulia.com/blog/sam_thompson/2012/05/high_default_rate_on_fha_loans_causes_lenders_to_tighten_guidelines_for_borrowers_in_the_600_640_segment Fundamentally, it should always be cheaper to buy than to rent.

20. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    20   9:14am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran_K says Raw, if the multibid situation gets even more crazy, when do you recommended I start killing other bidders? I really need a home, now. OK, here is the real solution... Next offer you make, take "ApocalypseFuck" with you and make them an offer they cannot refuse. I did that with 5 offers, of which 3 sellers quickly accepted, and 2 are no longer with us.

21. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    21   9:14am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Raw says I would say yes. People were buying homes when rates were 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% and even 17% at one time. People just prefer to own their own home, and will pay more than rent if they have to. A home is a castle, and everyone wants one. Does NAR pay you to say that? :)))) It sounds right out of the NAR playbook. I suggest no one wants a mortgage right now. If the cash buyers were not involved there would be no bubble at all. Mortgage originations being up does not explain the bubble: http://ycharts.com/indicators/mortgage_originations They are historically very, very low still.

22. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    22   9:17am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Raw says Most homes are being purchased by regular people like you and me to live in because interest rates are shockingly low. That is not correct. 41 percent of the real estate purchased last month in Phoenix were by cash buyers. Over 50 percent in Las Vegas. The rest are 3 percent down which have a massive default rate http://www.trulia.com/blog/sam_thompson/2012/05/high_default_rate_on_fha_loans_causes_lenders_to_tighten_guidelines_for_borrowers_in_the_600_640_segment Fundamentally, it should always be cheaper to buy than to rent. Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com Most of the USA does not have this heavy demand by investors. Overall, in the whole country most people are buying homes just to live in. Also keep in mind many cash buyers are also buying just to live in the home. Prices are so damn low it's like buying the whole thing at the cost of a traditional down payment.

23. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    23   9:19am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says Most of the USA does not have this heavy demand by investors. Overall, in the whole country most people are buying homes just to live in. That is not true. In 2011, there were 4.4 million homes sold. Only 2.4 million mortgages were written to purchase those homes. That means a full two million were cash buyers , mostly the 1 percent.

24. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,523 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    24   9:19am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says OK, here is the real solution... Next offer you make, take "ApocalypseFuck" with you and make them an offer they cannot refuse. I did that with 5 offers, of which 3 sellers quickly accepted, and 2 are no longer with us. I think that may be my only hope. There is only 2 houses left in my entire county and I don't want to be left out in the cold sleeping under a bench, wet with my own urine.

25. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    25   9:20am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Raw says I would say yes. People were buying homes when rates were 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% and even 17% at one time. People just prefer to own their own home, and will pay more than rent if they have to. A home is a castle, and everyone wants one. Does NAR pay you to say that? :)))) It sounds right out of the NAR playbook. I suggest no one wants a mortgage right now. If the cash buyers were not involved there would be no bubble at all. Mortgage originations being up does not explain the bubble: http://ycharts.com/indicators/mortgage_originations They are historically very, very low still. Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com The NAR are lying scumbags, but even scumbags can be right sometimes. Ofcourse, the right thing to do is throw them in prison.

26. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    26   9:24am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Raw says The NAR are lying scumbags, but even scumbags can be right sometimes. No, I would not put them in prison. I would ban them from real estate though. Scumbags can be right sometimes. But what if they aren't? BTW, Raw, the 3 percent down, doesnt' that come with mortgage insurance? So if you add the mortgage insurance, the taxes, the insurance, the payment, it is pretty close to renting right?

27. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    27   9:28am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Raw says The NAR are lying scumbags, but even scumbags can be right sometimes. No, I would not put them in prison. I would ban them from real estate though. Scumbags can be right sometimes. But what if they aren't? BTW, Raw, the 3 percent down, doesnt' that come with mortgage insurance? So if you add the mortgage insurance, the taxes, the insurance, the payment, it is pretty close to renting right? Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com Still cheaper than rent. One day that home can be free and clear, but rents go on forever.

28. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    28   9:32am Sat 29 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Well, barely cheaper than rent and moving the wrong direction: http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/arizona/phoenix/ Scroll down to the chart that says Phoenix, Arizona Home Rent-to-Mortgage Payment Ratio In that chart, taxes are NOT included and less than 1 means rent is cheaper. We are already down to 1.09 not counting TAXES. The house prices are appreciating quickly as you can see by the chart, and rents are declining. So, the question remains, how long can this obvious trend continue?