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By thankshousingbubble   Follow   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 1:19pm PDT   14,234 views   92 comments
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Graybox   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 11:40am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 53

PockyClipsNow says

I highly doubt we will ever see high intrest rates again.

2015 is absolutely looking to be the time int rates do come back with fiery and a true bottom in RE will be established. Perhaps below the already so called established lows... Undoubtedly price will let us know, it will speak for itself.

thomaswong.1986   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 3:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

chanakya4773 says

The only thing that is scientific and reliable is case shiller housing index.

FWIW, shiller proved that RE prices can be influenced by irrational exuberance... hence the name of his book.

David9   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 3:18pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 55

PockyClipsNow says

Zirp and 2% mortages will prop it up. Ez lending. 5 year foreclosure timelines, workouts, loan mods - money doesnt exist its zeros and ones so there is no limit or end in sight to the manipulations.

LOL, you may very well be correct.

JodyChunder   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 3:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 56

PockyClipsNow says

I highly doubt we will ever see high intrest rates again

Could be...depends on how old you are. But I think your scenario is pretty unimaginative and improbable, because, among other things, it assumes that the American economy will never stand on its hind legs ever again.

David Losh   Wed, 6 Mar 2013, 3:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 57

chanakya4773 says

The only thing that is scientific and reliable is case shiller housing index.

The Index is flawed, and most people know it. It encompasses a broad Metropolitan area, that has proved to be a mixed bag of both good, and bad Real Estate market places.

Which reminds me; I did go into great detail about how the Seattle Real Estate market place was vastly different than Phoenix, because we never had the price reductions Phoenix saw.

We did see massive price reduction in Tacoma to our South and some investors have been stuck there with less than stellar properties.

You can't blanket the Real Estate market.

PockyClipsNow   Wed, 6 Mar 2013, 8:17am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 58

Gonna be lots more JBRs after another year or two of double digit increases.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 2:51am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 59

As usual you dug just deep enough to support your view.

Phoenix listings are up year over year and sales are down year over year. That is a fact!

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 3:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 60

I will note again that I am not going to resort to name calling. I see that you cannot do the same.

My source was Redfin

http://www.redfin.com/city/14240/AZ/Phoenix

Homes for sale in Phoenix UP 2.8% year over year.
Number of homes sold in Phoenix DOWN 13.1% year over year.

Feel free to link your source.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 3:21am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 61

It also mirrors Maricopa county

http://www.redfin.com/county/220/AZ/Maricopa-County

For sale UP 1.6% yoy
Sale DOWN 11.4% yoy

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 3:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 62

Roberto are you really a 14 year old girl? I ask because you act like one.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 3:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

Bigsby says

clearly done alright for himself with his purchases irrespective of whether
prices continue to rise or not.

Irrespective of whether prices continue to rise or not? And if they fall? If they crash? If there is another global market panic?

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 3:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 64

Bigsby says

Why do you keep trying to poke holes in what he has done then?

I am not poking holes in what he has done. We are talking about the future and I am poking holes in his vision of what the future will be. That is what investing is about, guessing what the future holds. That is why it is so funny watching him proclaim his victory. He can proclaim victory when he has liquidated for a profit, or dies while still holding his valueable property that has funded a lavish retirement. Prior to that time he has paper profits that can rapidly become paper losses.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 65

yup1 says

Bigsby says

clearly done alright for himself with his purchases irrespective of whether

prices continue to rise or not.

Irrespective of whether prices continue to rise or not? And if they fall? If they crash? If there is another global market panic?

Oh for crying out loud. He bought a bunch of dirt cheap properties at an historically low point in the Phoenix market. Even if the prices declined substantially from here, he'd still be well ahead. Just look at his rent in contrast to his PITI. It doesn't matter to him. He has got so much room for maneuver that it's almost laughable, and yet you are still trying to make out that he has made a bad move. No, he hasn't. Short-term or long-term he is quite clearly going to do OK for himself, and more than likely, a lot better than that.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:06am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 66

yup1 says

I am not poking hole in what he has done. We are talking about the future and I am poking holes in his vision of what the future will be. That is what investing is about, guessing what the future hold. That is why it is so funny watching him proclaim his victory. He can proclaim victory when he has liquidated for a profit, or dies while still holding his valueable property that has funded a lavish retirement. Prior to that time he has paper profits that can rapidly become paper losses.

What's he saying? That prices will go up in the near term in Phoenix? That's a stunning and outrageous prediction. Or rather it isn't. Beyond that, I don't recall him saying much. He can sit on his investments and collect his income. It's a pretty bloody good return for the money spent by anyone's standards and to argue otherwise is bloody stupid. And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people, would it not, so I ask again, what is it that you are trying to prove?

upisdown   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:06am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 67

yup1 says

I am not poking hole in what he has done. We are talking about the future and
I am poking holes in his vision of what the future will be. That is what
investing is about, guessing what the future hold. That is why it is so funny
watching him proclaim his victory. He can proclaim victory when he has
liquidated for a profit, or dies while still holding his valueable property that
has funded a lavish retirement. Prior to that time he has paper profits that can
rapidly become paper losses.

A large amount of money by investors has been put into the RE market, just like Roberto has done. They are chasing returns, playing the spread, and hoping to cash out in the future or dump it on something/somebody else if not. is it wrong? Or is it wrong because you did or didn't do the same thing?

Or are you really an alter-ego alias of Roberto that tries to reinforce his success, and does he really need to? Or not?

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 68

Bigsby says

Oh for crying out loud. He bought a bunch of dirt cheap properties at an
historically low point in the Phoenix market. Even if the prices declined
substantially from here, he'd still be well ahead. Just look at his rent in
contrast to his PITI. It doesn't matter to him. He has got so much room for
maneuver that it's almost laughable, and yet you are still trying to make out
that he has made a bad move. No, he hasn't. Short-term or long-term he is quite
clearly going to do OK for himself, and more than likely, a lot better than
that.

If incomes collapse? If rents collapse? Ever heard of the great depression? Ever heard of a global financial panic? Ever heard of a currency collapse? Water shortage? Dust bowl? Have you ever considered that the bulk of his gains are entirely due to things outside of his control, the Fed, FHA, FASB, extremely low interest rates. Oh for crying out load history doesn't repeat itself........

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 69

Bigsby says

so I ask again, what is it that you are trying to prove?

I am not trying to prove anything. He thinks that the future is bright, his rentals will stay full and the price will continue to appreciate. I think the future is bleak, good jobs are gone, incomes will continue to fall, and rents and home values will decline.

The better question is why are you looking for proof on an online forum?

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 70

yup1 says

If incomes collapse? If rents collapse? Ever heard of the great depression? Ever heard of a global financial panic? Ever heard of a currency collapse? Water shortage? Dust bowl? Have you ever considered that the bulk of his gains are entirely due to things outside of his control, the Fed, FHA, FASB, extremely low interest rates. Oh for crying out load history doesn't repeat itself........

Oh FFS, what if a giant asteroid hits the bloody planet?

His gains have come from buying at just about the perfect time in a market that overshot it's historical trend lines after the bursting of an enormous housing bubble. It doesn't matter to him what outside influences there were or are on the housing market. The fact is he bought at a very good time, and all you are doing is throwing out ridiculous what ifs in an attempt to attack his investments (whilst simultaneously commenting about how good they were - go figure).

Like I said, you, sir, really are clutching at straws and it's becoming a bit embarrassing.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 71

yup1 says

I am not trying to prove anything. He thinks that the future is bright, his rentals will stay full and the price will continue to appreciate. I think the future is bleak, good jobs are gone, incomes will continue to fall, and rents and home values will decline.

The better question is why are you looking for proof on an online forum?

Proof? Proof of what? I own a house that I can easily afford. End of story as far as my real estate involvement goes. I simply come here for a bit of light relief, which your posts most certainly supply.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:21am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

Bigsby says

Like I said, you, sir, really are clutching at straws and it's becoming a bit
embarrassing.

You are the one looking for proof on Patrick.net, talk about embarassing.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 73

Only time will tell........

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 74

yup1 says

Bigsby says

Like I said, you, sir, really are clutching at straws and it's becoming a bit

embarrassing.

You are the one looking for proof on Patrick.net, talk about embarassing.

I'm not looking for anything (outside a spot of entertainment) from Patnet. And anyway, what is this supposed proof I'm searching for? I just thought I was here to pointlessly kill a bit of time reading froth at the mouth attacks by people like yourself on others who appear to have done a bit better with their investment decisions. But hey, you seem to have all the answers. It's just a shame that they always appear to be wrong.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 75

Bigsby says

reading froth at the mouth attacks by people like yourself on others who appear
to have done a bit better with their investment decisions.

I realize that you do not agree with me which is fine. You never point out any of Roberto's "mouth attacks" which happen to be far more often than mine and are far more personal. I will point out that you know nothing about my own investment decisions.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 76

yup1 says

Bigsby says

reading froth at the mouth attacks by people like yourself on others who appear

to have done a bit better with their investment decisions.

I realize that you do not agree with me which is fine. You never point out any of Roberto's "mouth attacks" which happen to be far more often than mine and are far more personal. I will point out that you know nothing about my own investment decisions.

I frequently criticize Roberto's unnecessary insults as a matter of fact, but in some cases, and with some posters, I can quite understand why he does it.

And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better than his?

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:51am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 77

Bigsby says

And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better
than his?

I have no idea I do not know what decisions he made outside of real estate.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 4:53am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 78

yup1 says

Bigsby says

And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better

than his?

I have no idea I do not know what decisions he made outside of real estate.

They are the investments he has outlined. Were your decisions better than his? I think I can guess the answer based on your posts.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 5:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 79

Bigsby says

They are the investments he has outlined. Were your decisions better than
his? I think I can guess the answer based on your posts.

As far as real estate, no. I did time the stock market fairly well though.

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 5:05am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 80

Bigsby says

And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of
amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most
people

Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties?

CDon   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 5:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 81

yup1 says

If incomes collapse? If rents collapse? Ever heard of the great depression? Ever
heard of a global financial panic? Ever heard of a currency collapse? Water
shortage? Dust bowl?

Serious question - for those who arent as much investors, but just want to someday, buy a house and get on with it, what is your answer to hedge against these risks - rent forever?

I ask because I know of at least one person who has been renting continuously since 1987, all the while citing background life risks like these, as reasons not to buy...yet.

For that sort of person, are you seriously advocating that they continue to rent until all these risks disappear before they wade into the buyers market?

yup1   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 5:22am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 82

CDon says

For that sort of person, are you seriously advocating that they continue to
rent until all these risks disappear before they wade into the buyers
market?

Some risks never disappear, but they might become small enough that you dive in. If the person you know has not owned in 25+ years they will most likely never own. Depending on where they live that might be a good decision, it might not have. In my time as a homeowner, owning has cost me more than renting would have. That is from 1993 to present. My price gains do not offset the increased cost of ownership.

Bigsby   Wed, 13 Mar 2013, 12:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 83

yup1 says

Bigsby says

And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of

amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most

people

Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties?

You have to laugh.

gbenson   Mon, 18 Mar 2013, 8:09am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 84

Bah! My realtor told me that a ton of inventory is on its way! Granted that was a year ago now... :'P

Oil Can   Thu, 21 Mar 2013, 5:22am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 85

Last year, institutional investors made up 19% of all sales in Las Vegas, 21% in Charlotte, 23% in Phoenix, and 30% in Miami. It had an impact. In the latest Case-Shiller report—a three-month moving average for October, November, and December—home values soared 9.9% in Atlanta, a bigger jump than even during the peak of the housing bubble. Las Vegas popped 12.9%, and Phoenix 23%. It’s getting hotter. In February, compared to prior year, asking prices jumped 14% in Atlanta, 18% in Las Vegas, and 25% Phoenix. Seen from another point of view: in January, the median price of a single-family home in Phoenix skyrocketed 35%.

“We recognized that prices were moving faster than people expected,” explained Devin Peterson, a Blackstone real estate associate, to Bloomberg. Despite that, they’re still “finding opportunities to buy.” They might not be able to rent them out very quickly, but they’d rather not be “missing out on a few points in home price appreciation.” The race to buy is on. The next housing bubble is inflating.

And that’s great. Money—which the Fed hands to its cronies at the frenetic pace of $85 billion a month—magically finds places to go and drives up values, and transactions take place, and paper gets shuffled around, and homes change hands as banks get out from under them, and fees and commissions change hands too. It inflates GDP, which is what everyone wants. And Chairman Bernanke can contort his arm slapping himself on the back.

Trying to rent these places is another story. Housing is zero-sum: when you move into a new place, you move out of the old place at the same time. So it becomes available. And someone else goes through the same process. Only household formation solves the problem of vacant homes—but that takes years or decades.

Best of all, these formerly foreclosed homes have now been pulled off the for-sale inventory list. Hence the “tight” inventory. And they’ve been transferred to the for-rent inventory list where they don’t bother anyone. Except the owners. Colony Capital, for example, with its 7,000 homes, has an occupancy rate of 53%.

Suddenly, the market for single-family rental homes—unlike apartments, which cater to different people—has turned into an elbow-to-elbow affair. The pressure on rents is huge. Year-over-year, rents edged up only 0.5% in Atlanta and dropped 1.7% in Las Vegas. For Phoenix, Bloomberg cited Fletcher Wilcox, a real estate analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency: median rent per square foot rose 3% year-over-year in February 2011, and 1.5% in February 2012. But in February 2013, it fell 3%.

This tendency was confirmed by others. On the west side of Phoenix, where investors have concentrated their purchases of single-family homes, rents dropped by $100 a month last year—a stunning 10%!—according to James Breitenstein, CEO of Landsmith which has dumped most of its Phoenix properties. He is seeing similar pressures in Las Vegas and Atlanta. “There’s a whole bunch of rental supply that’s coming on that used to be sitting empty in bank portfolios,” he said.

CashWillCrash   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 8:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 86

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!! That's incredible! Only possible with a whole lot of cash buyers or else the stupid appraisers would have blocked out that kind of price increase. I am just glad that the Gas and Food Markets don't have such a supply/demand imbalance!

David9   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 8:18am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 87

CashWillCrash says

Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!!

With all due respect, I think that is in 2 months, not years.

Bought February 8, 2013 for 198k
Listed April 4, 2013 for 319k

Appraisers ? Don't you remember my story about the howls of laughter I got on the phone years ago when I told the bank 'I have an appraisal'

;-) Thankfully, I have come a long way since then.

David9   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 8:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 88

CashWillCrash says

it a mobile home, looks like one?

Close ..

CashWillCrash   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 8:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 89

David9 says

CashWillCrash says

Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!!

With all due respect, I think that is in 2 months, not years.

Bought February 8, 2013 for 198k

DAVID9,
77.5% was the appreciation for Phoenix according to Roberto's Article which applied to ALL SALES in Phoenix and not only one lucky flipper!

Listed April 4, 2013 for 319k

Appraisers ? Don't you remember my story about the howls of laughter I got on the phone years ago when I told the bank 'I have an appraisal'

;-) Thankfully, I have come a long way since then.

David9,
the 77.5% appreciation is for Roberto's article which is the average of 15,000 SALES in Phoenix, not just one lucky Flipper! Besides that, it;s only his ASKING price. Any bid yet?

David9   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 8:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 90

CashWillCrash says

Any bid yet?

k. (For Phoenix Correction) That one property is:

1 of 4 350k and under
1 of 5 400k and under
1 of 8 450k and under

I'll keep an eye on my Redfin emails for sold.
It just might.

postbubblesucess   Mon, 8 Apr 2013, 9:49am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 91

Numbers don't lie. Feels good to know my townhouse went up almost 100% from 43.5k to 80k. Neighbor just had an all out cash bidding war on his property. Listing agent told me in front of 2 couples that my neighbor was considering raising the price. I saw him on my way to my garage and he said he needed the money to travel with his new wife or he would hold out for more money. He's 65 and has another house. As for me, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that I think Ill see the 100k mark by August. Yay me and a middle finger to all the jealous haters :)

Mobi   Tue, 7 May 2013, 12:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 92

yup1 says

Bigsby says



And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of
amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most
people


Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties?

I would think so with a good property manager. One of the advantages compared to stocks - stability. Not saying housing is a better investment than stocks, just talking about the stability.

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