Watch1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures
Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.
Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.
2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.
3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix
Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...
This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.
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Bigsby says
I am only managing 6 of them now, the other 8 I have a property manager for. I'll turn over the rest in due course.
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ok, another monday, another report on the Phoenix housing market:
1. inventory dropped by a couple hundred. This is very important, because in a typical year, inventory is at a low over the holiday season, and then rises briskly into the spring. To see inventory drop today, is ultra positive for home prices this spring and summer
2. Asking prices continued their torrid increase. The 75th percentile is up $30,000 in a single month, the 25th is up $6000. The median is up 4.4% on a monthly basis, and holding to this speedy price increase.
3. Foreclosures notices: last month was the first time in six years that we had less than 2000 NTR filings in maricopa county, and we are on pace to have less than 2000 again. Actual foreclosures, which have already slowed dramatically, are going to slow even further. New inventory is simply not going to come from that source. No Tsunami, those calling for it have been 100% wrong.
Anyone who delayed buying a year ago due to bad perma-pessimistic advice has made a huge mistake.
My prediction a month ago of 10 to 15% increase in prices by summer is looking more and more certain as each week goes by.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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Bah! My realtor told me that a ton of inventory is on its way! Granted that was a year ago now... :'P
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San Francisco, CA
robertoaribas says
If they wanted to sell after a year?
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FunTime says
Well, if paying rent higher than your mortgage for a year, while you wait and watch prices go up 25% or more seems like a good business move to you.... by all means!!!
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Oil Can's website
Last year, institutional investors made up 19% of all sales in Las Vegas, 21% in Charlotte, 23% in Phoenix, and 30% in Miami. It had an impact. In the latest Case-Shiller report—a three-month moving average for October, November, and December—home values soared 9.9% in Atlanta, a bigger jump than even during the peak of the housing bubble. Las Vegas popped 12.9%, and Phoenix 23%. It’s getting hotter. In February, compared to prior year, asking prices jumped 14% in Atlanta, 18% in Las Vegas, and 25% Phoenix. Seen from another point of view: in January, the median price of a single-family home in Phoenix skyrocketed 35%.
“We recognized that prices were moving faster than people expected,” explained Devin Peterson, a Blackstone real estate associate, to Bloomberg. Despite that, they’re still “finding opportunities to buy.” They might not be able to rent them out very quickly, but they’d rather not be “missing out on a few points in home price appreciation.” The race to buy is on. The next housing bubble is inflating.
And that’s great. Money—which the Fed hands to its cronies at the frenetic pace of $85 billion a month—magically finds places to go and drives up values, and transactions take place, and paper gets shuffled around, and homes change hands as banks get out from under them, and fees and commissions change hands too. It inflates GDP, which is what everyone wants. And Chairman Bernanke can contort his arm slapping himself on the back.
Trying to rent these places is another story. Housing is zero-sum: when you move into a new place, you move out of the old place at the same time. So it becomes available. And someone else goes through the same process. Only household formation solves the problem of vacant homes—but that takes years or decades.
Best of all, these formerly foreclosed homes have now been pulled off the for-sale inventory list. Hence the “tight” inventory. And they’ve been transferred to the for-rent inventory list where they don’t bother anyone. Except the owners. Colony Capital, for example, with its 7,000 homes, has an occupancy rate of 53%.
Suddenly, the market for single-family rental homes—unlike apartments, which cater to different people—has turned into an elbow-to-elbow affair. The pressure on rents is huge. Year-over-year, rents edged up only 0.5% in Atlanta and dropped 1.7% in Las Vegas. For Phoenix, Bloomberg cited Fletcher Wilcox, a real estate analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency: median rent per square foot rose 3% year-over-year in February 2011, and 1.5% in February 2012. But in February 2013, it fell 3%.
This tendency was confirmed by others. On the west side of Phoenix, where investors have concentrated their purchases of single-family homes, rents dropped by $100 a month last year—a stunning 10%!—according to James Breitenstein, CEO of Landsmith which has dumped most of its Phoenix properties. He is seeing similar pressures in Las Vegas and Atlanta. “There’s a whole bunch of rental supply that’s coming on that used to be sitting empty in bank portfolios,” he said.
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Oil Can says
@oilcan... blah blah blah...
my rental on the westside gave notice to move out... it is in absolute crap shape, but I got it re-rented at the same price, 2 weeks prior to my current tenant leaving... someday I'll remodel it, but for now, I'll just keep making rent.
$60K purchase, rented for $825... 4bedroom 2 car garage, on a golf course... worth an easy $100K today a mere 9 months after I bought it... taxes are $800 a year, insurance $700.... I bought a new ac shortly after getting it, and a couple other small repairs plus appliances, the new tenants wanted a minimum 2 year lease...
In other Phoenix news, median price continued it's march up...
STUNNING increase in the 75th percentile, up another $10K in just a week...
EVERYBODY who said "don't buy, the crash isn't over" 2 years ago, at least for Phoenix, couldn't possibly have been more wrong on anything ever.... you know who you are!!!
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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Phoenix inventory just dropped under 17,600 this morning. with roughly 8000 sold in the past 30 days. this is a new low for this spring, and continuing a trend of 100 less homes for sale per week.
Considering that in a normal year (been a while since we've had normal around here) inventory typically rises from January to April by 10 or 15%, This continued drop in inventory signals that the market is going to stay tight, with prices increasing.
And, more inventory is definitely not coming from foreclosures any time soon: there are precisely 2381 scheduled foreclosures in the next 30 days. Even as recently as a year ago, we routinely had 5000 foreclosures scheduled in the up coming 30 day period. Using historical data, 1/3 of these will actually foreclose, 1/3 cancel and 1/3 delayed into the future. So we will be seeing 50% less foreclosures then last year at this time, a reduction of about 800 distressed properties per month, and given the greatly reduced pipeline of homes in foreclosure, and notices of future foreclosure, this trend is not changing this year.
So, we have tight inventory, and much less distressed inventory coming than last year. Until prices rise enough that regular home owners are enticed to sell, or buyers quit buying, prices are going to continue to rise. The sign of that change will be rising inventory, and slowing sales, such as 4 to 6 months worth of inventory on the market, a figure we are a hell of along ways away from today.
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robertoaribas says
Oh snap! Phoenix inventory dropped another 100 today! (I miss typed it earlier, it was 16,600 this morning... now it is 16,495...
Now, I realize that this particular statistic jumps around, but still this definitely bears watching...
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http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Phoenix listed prices continued their torrid increase, inventory continues to drop. Inventory tends to jump up right before the weekend, then jump down the first couple days of the week, which makes sense, as buyers go out looking at homes on the weekend, iron out contracts, and the houses get removed the next week. Nevertheless, we nearly went under 16,400 last week, then jumped back up to 16,650 on Friday, as of this second, it is 16408. [housingtracker.net above uses a slightly different data set, but you can see the same trend]
Meanwhile, March had preliminary sales numbers of 8200, a very strong number when combined with the low inventory.
Analyzing foreclosure filings, I got a count of 1830 Notice of trustee sales, 850 actual foreclosures, and 1330 cancelled foreclosures. Foreclosures have truly dropped off a cliff, and it is important to note that AZ has no new legal impediments to foreclosures; they are just dropping on their own.
Compare those numbers to past data:
Foreclosure Filings: Arizona > Maricopa County
Foreclosure Outcomes: Arizona > Maricopa County
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Tarzana, CA
robertoaribas says
Torrid increase ?
You don't know torrid.
How about a cool one hundred grand ?
(Sure, nice if he/she can get it.)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/1745-Camino-Palmero-St-90046/unit-209/home/7115207
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Phoenix active inventory dropped to 16,300 this morning, down 100 from last week's low. (tends to jump up friday, as people who are thinking of listing get it ont he market for the weekend, then drop off monday and tuesday, as all the people who looked at homes over the weekend negotiate contracts)
Still trending downward in spring, when it would normally be trending upwards.
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Phoenix active inventory dropped under 16,200. Another week, down another 100.
So, anyone waiting for a sign of any change in our climbing market prices is likely to be sadly disappointed for quite some time to come.
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housingtracker.net just released there inventory and pricing data for the week.
Phoenix is holding on to its torrid 4%+ monthly median listing price increases...
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
in fact the 25th percentile price today is where the median was in July 2011...
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robertoaribas says
4% aint jack sh*t, try roughly 50% in two months or 25% a month increase.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/5211-Romaine-St-90029/home/7109539
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http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!! That's incredible! Only possible with a whole lot of cash buyers or else the stupid appraisers would have blocked out that kind of price increase. I am just glad that the Gas and Food Markets don't have such a supply/demand imbalance!
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David9 says
Nice listing. Why wait a whole year for 25% when you can get it in just a month. Is it a mobile home, looks like one?
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CashWillCrash says
With all due respect, I think that is in 2 months, not years.
Bought February 8, 2013 for 198k
Listed April 4, 2013 for 319k
Appraisers ? Don't you remember my story about the howls of laughter I got on the phone years ago when I told the bank 'I have an appraisal'
;-) Thankfully, I have come a long way since then.
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Tarzana, CA
CashWillCrash says
Close ..
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one flip, that may have been bought way under market, or had serious repairs hardly shows how a market is doing. But, the median price out of 15,000 listed homes sure the heck does!
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David9 says
David9,
the 77.5% appreciation is for Roberto's article which is the average of 15,000 SALES in Phoenix, not just one lucky Flipper! Besides that, it;s only his ASKING price. Any bid yet?
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Tarzana, CA
CashWillCrash says
k. (For Phoenix Correction) That one property is:
1 of 4 350k and under
1 of 5 400k and under
1 of 8 450k and under
I'll keep an eye on my Redfin emails for sold.
It just might.
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Roberto Aribas, this is all that matters
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/AZ-home-value/r_8/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D14%26r%3D8%252C394976%26el%3D0
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Numbers don't lie. Feels good to know my townhouse went up almost 100% from 43.5k to 80k. Neighbor just had an all out cash bidding war on his property. Listing agent told me in front of 2 couples that my neighbor was considering raising the price. I saw him on my way to my garage and he said he needed the money to travel with his new wife or he would hold out for more money. He's 65 and has another house. As for me, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that I think Ill see the 100k mark by August. Yay me and a middle finger to all the jealous haters :)
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oh snap! Phoenix active inventory just dropped under 16,100... When it just went under 16200 for the first time since last summer this morning...
with 8500 sold in the past 30 days, the entire mls has less than 2 months inventory now.
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15999 active on the mls... another day, another 100 down...
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http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Well, Phoenix housing listed prices have been completely stable for two weeks. I count active inventory at 15931 today... so basically stable as well.
I have to admit, I am a bit surprised by this. Sales have come flying back, in my rolling 30 day count, I am now seeing 9000 give or take on the mix of business days/weekends in the count, whereas a january was around 6000. So, the entire mls has less than 2 months inventory, and in many price points, like single family homes within 25 miles of downtown, 3/2/2car garage, 150k to 200K, there is literally like 2.5 weeks inventory.
Meanwhile, foreclosure have plummeted, new filings are down 60% from last year. Even short sales are less numerous this year than last year.
Considering how fast prices had been rising, a couple of weeks of stable prices could just be statistical noise in the continuing uptrend. I wouldn't expect price increases to stop with supply and demand still this out of whack.
So, I investigated further into what homes are being listed these days.
Analysis of the last 7 days listings:
short sales = 103
REO/HUD = 183
No special listing condition = 1618
So, I decided to look at the new non-distressed listings. I picked 10 random homes, not distressed:
1 flip
3 long flips (over one year between distressed sale and current listing, possibly investor, possibly owner occupied, I can't necessarily tell which)
6 normal sales.
then, I decided to take a closer look at 150k to 250K, the starter home market in Phoenix.
I pulled 20 random non distressed homes:
1. short sale preforeclosure, owner/agent lying and not disclosing this fact in the appropriate part of the listing (hence it came up in my search)
2 new homes.
5 long flips
12 normal sales.
Obviously, 10 and 20 are too small of data sets to use as a survey, the error bound on statistics would be too high for any reliability, but it is a bit of a time consuming process, and I'm just trying to get a bit of preliminary data.
A couple of conclusions:
1. clearly, Phoenix prices have risen enough, that apparently a lot of people can now sell, who may have wished to sell for a while.
2. Even some people, investors or regular owners, who got smoking deals out of the crash in 2009, 2010, are going to sell now.
So, my conclusions from what I'm seeing, are that prices are likely to keep rising in the near to mid term, as supply and demand are still out of whack. But the market could be starting to enter a new phase. I'm not expecting the rapid price increases of the past year to continue, if i had to make a guess, i'd say about 10% more up generally through this selling season, with a possibility of more normal listings blunting the increases by late summer.
Obviously, with the volatility the Phoenix market has seen over the past 3 years, this an area by area phenomenon, and not all are going to act the same.
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housingtracker asking prices resumed their increases, after 2 weeks of stable prices.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Median and first quartile showing stronger increases. Inventory is slightly down.
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case shiller just releases, showing a 1.01% increase January to February on both the seasonally adjusted, and unadjusted index. And, the increase over a year ago is 23%.
Since this is data from several months prior, get prepared to watch more of the same for the next nine months for damn sure, given the reality of this market.
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Phoenix median asking price jumped $3000 in just a week, and the 25th percentile jumped $1900...
Looks like the spring/summer price increases are going to keep on coming...
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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yup1 says
I would think so with a good property manager. One of the advantages compared to stocks - stability. Not saying housing is a better investment than stocks, just talking about the stability.
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Phoenix home prices did not rise at all this week on housingtracker.net
The price increases have definitely slowed down, now. Not really too surprising, after 80%+ increases since the bottom.
Inventory has remained exactly the same, and there are fewer distressed homes than a month ago.
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This week, Phoenix prices took a solid jump, 3000 to the bottom quartile, $4000 to median and 75th quartile.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Case-shiller index came in, which is a more statistically relevant, but dated look at Phoenix prices also shows prices increasing steadily at 22% or so a year.
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robertoaribas says
Wow, at that rate you'll be able to sell your empire of crap shacks and retire to Tahiti in no time!!!
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Call it Crazy says
Hey, you're catching on! There may be hope for you after all!!
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robertoaribas says
Rah, Rah, Rah..
Phoenix, Phoenix, Phoenix!!!
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In the month of May, 9400 sales occurred in Maricopa County. Of those sales, I count 1190 short sales, and 915 bank or HUD owned homes. Distressed inventory made up fully 25% of all sales.
Foreclosure filings have been on a steep descent for quite some time now, down from a high of over 10,000 new trust deed sales filed a month, to 4500 a year ago, to under 2000 currently. In May, there were 1600 new filings, with 1200 cancelled sales, and 1000 actual foreclosures. These ratios have been relatively constant, so we can predict that roughly 40% or 640 eventual foreclosures were added to the future in those 1600 new filings, while 1000 actually occurred, clearly, an unsustainably high rate given the paucity of new filings. The actual number of homes in foreclosure dropped by 650 on the month, and is now poised to go under 10,000 for the first time in 7 years. It is nearly back to pre bubble levels.
It seems that banks have moved the dispossession of their troubled inventory largely from actual foreclosures to short sales. So, the short sale number bears watching as an important market statistic.
In July 2012, I first began tracking short sale numbers on the Maricopa County MLS, to document their numbers. At that time, there were 1101 active short sales, 10689 pending or under contract (UCB). Today, we find 630 active short sales, and 4560 pending or under contract. Short sales have dropped by 50% in less than a year. So, absent a sudden increase in short sale listings, it seems quite clear that we are going to see a steep drop off in both short sales, and foreclosures in the near future.
How will the market change, when short sale + foreclosure sales drop to less than 10% of the monthly transactions?
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Foreclosure Inventories: Arizona > Maricopa County
The number of homes in the foreclosure process drops to a seven year low in Maricopa county. This is honestly very close to pre bubble numbers. Those waiting on the "shadow inventory" are seriously marginalized in the lunatic fringe at this point.
May filings for foreclosures also tumbled to a post bubble low, and dropped 2/3 from the year ago amount:
Foreclosure Filings: Arizona > Maricopa County
Meanwhile, short sales on the local mls are also down 50% from a year ago.
Distressed inventory is quite quickly being mopped up off of the local market. 3 years ago, distressed inventory drove the market, last year it was still a factor. It is on its way to being a memory.
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San Francisco, CA
robertoaribas says
Did institutions do most of that buying with plans to leak it back into the market? If so, they'd want to try and maximize the price which, again, would be what you're wanting.