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By thankshousingbubble   Follow   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 1:19pm PDT   13,984 views   92 comments
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bmwman91   Mon, 17 Dec 2012, 10:42am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 1

1. I happen to work in high-volume consumer electronics development/manufacturing. Automation won't bring jobs back here. The entire supply chain is in Asia and it is not moving here. I'd prefer it stay there. Anyone that has actually been to industrial China would. As much as Steve Jobs was a big asshole, he was dead-on when he explained to Obama why we will never produce iPhones in the USA. Supply chain. Automation could cut the production cost in half, but consumers would still pay twice as much because of the logistical problems that stem from getting all of the raw materials there to factories here.

2. Possibly. If Asia is willing to pay more for the energy than America, it will all be sold to Asia. It will go where there is the most profit, without regard for what is "good" for America.

3. Where will these "displaced workers" find employment? If you are educated in something useful you have a shot at a "better" job. Maybe if energy takes off like you say there will be job growth there. Outside of FIRE and service sector jobs that produce little-to-nothing, I am not sure where job growth will come from.

4. Convenience is, and will continue to increase. No argument here. It's all trinkety crap and no meaningful innovation. New applications of mostly existing technology. Maybe working in the industry has made me jaded, but I don't see any real human "progress" in the perfection of disposable consumer goods and the proliferation of web-advertising (*ahem* social media). Keep buying it though, it puts food on my table!

As far as I can see, the bulk of our economy is fueled by consumption which is easily outpacing production. I don't see how it is sustainable. Maybe I am totally wrong and will realize it in 5 years, I don't know. Everyone thinks that their generation is at the helm of a ship that is about to sink. Maybe the idiocy that I see rampant in every corner of our nation has always been there and is just more visible thanks to the internet, I don't know.

CameronCrazy   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 10:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 2

I'll take real estate advice from a realtor when I take diet advice from Willy Wonka.

JodyChunder   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 1:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 3

I agree, rental markets are uniquely hot right now siince people who were foreclosed on still need housing to wait out their credit repair -- and of course, would-be buyers with recency effect. These are usually sellers from the bubble who jumped ship and are still "hording" their equity, renting and waiting out the housing shenanigans. I do not think, going forward say, 10 years, that SFH rentals will be the going concern they are now, and plan to exit property management myself within that time frame.

To be fair, I also think, from a buy-and-hold primary residence viewpoint, there's really no rush to buy.

Quigley   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 8:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 4

Who the hell cares for Phoenix prices? That market crashed hard and is unlike nearly every other RE market in the nation that's not bear Detroit, Las Vegas, or Florida.
Phoenix prices have absolutely no friggin bearing on prices in California. None. So I don't care. Good for you that you did so well. You had an incredible opportunity. Congrats. Now stop bragging!

GlobalRoamer   Sat, 10 Nov 2012, 2:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 5

Regular Sales Will Rise.

Hi Roberto. How are the acquisitions going? I'm closing on another place Tuesday - but not Arizona. Good inventory is hard to come by.

In other markets I am seeing a resurgence of regular sales.

As prices rise there are owners who were underwater but not willing to do a short sale flooding the market. Many are overpriced as owners put their houses on the market for what they owe - not the current market value (list and pray).

I haven't seen this in the PHX market yet as the price decline was more severe and most who bought at the peak are still underwater. If prices keep rising you will see some - people who put down a lot or people who bought before 2001.

Where I am now the flood of regular sales have dampened demand for distressed sales. Hence I am picking up a few bargains here and there.

I do think there is still a lot of inventory underwater in Phoenix. So I see foreclosures / shorts continuing for at least 3 or 4 years. Their impact on prices will be less as there are many more 'investors' than there were in '09 or '10 willing to buy anything that looks remotely like a bargain.

Barring a fiscal cliff tragedy, I think prices will continue to itch up close to replacement cost.

bmwman91   Mon, 17 Dec 2012, 10:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 6

Personally, I have NO fears about the fiscal cliff in 2013. The can will get a big old kick at 11:59:59. I can't believe that anyone actually thinks that our inept government would pursue any course of action other than this. The republicans are retarded, but they are not so stupid as to disrupt the status quo in any meaningful way. Same goes for the democrats. They can both feign disagreement on various fiscal talking points and then get uncle Ben to make some power moves to avert the reckoning for another year or two. Then the circus comes back to town for a repeat performance. I agree that at SOME point we may finally go off the cliff as it looks like an inevitability, but I think that the status quo will be maintained this time around. All the huffing and puffing by our "leaders" is for show, I think.

Out of curiosity, what will drive the "inevitable" house price appreciation? I agree that it is inevitable if inventories stay way below historical norms like they have been. Are we in a new paradigm where housing will be dominated almost solely by yield-chasers and the individual owner-occupier no longer participates in a meaningful way?

Mick Russom   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 3:18pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 7

U6 is 15%. We have a japan style ZIRP in place with trillions in money being QEinfinity keeping the joke afloat.

This place is a mess. This is the end of the middle class. If housing pops again, it will break the back of the pack mule carrying all the freight.

PockyClipsNow   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 9:55am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 8

Water wars sounds like a great movie!

The RE bears are now inventing fiction since no facts support future price drops.

I waited too long to buy back in. Was lucky to buy last year. When i sell my house for 1.2m i will be sure to logon here with the news. Then retire to AZ where i can carry a gun everywhere like the old west.

David Losh   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 11:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 9

PockyClipsNow says

The RE bears are now inventing fiction since no facts support future price drops.

As much as sales data may mean something to a buyer, those aren't the facts. It's the principle of the greater fool, and we just saw that in 2006, and 2007.

I don't really know what perma bear means, but I do know there has been a long term strategy of Real Estate market timing. You buy when people are selling, and sell when people are buying.

That market timing has, in the past, been based on a decade long cycle such as between 1976, 1986, 1996, and 2006. Those were good times to buy except that 2006 thing.

Between 1998, and 2003 the Real Estate market changed radically, and globally. It wasn't just here in the good old USofA, it was Europe, Asia, and Africa. After the crash in 2008 South America then took off as the emerging Real Estate markets.

While people here blame our government for the change in Real Estate it doesn't explain what happened in the other markets until you look at banking.

Real Estate is always a good investment. Owning rentals is a good investment, but the strategy has changed. The Housing Industry has changed.

The economy has changed.

Banks are in control of large blocks of property. They are selling today for a premium, have cleared the books of dead wood, and they may well be done. I think banks will pull out of Real Estate next year 2014, from what Bernanke has said about the Fed.

Some properties will always be good, some other will adjust according to what the market will bear.

Because of that volitility I would rather have my money elsewhere right now.

So, I don't know if that is a perma bear position, because I own property. I just also know that we will sell another place this year rather than rent it out, but keep the commercial property, and land.

While I was writing this the Dow broke through the 2007 record high. How about that Dow? In terms of short terms gain, what about those that bought in 2008? or even last year?

I understand about the leverage, but still something has changed in terms of investment.

Graybox   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 11:40am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 10

PockyClipsNow says

I highly doubt we will ever see high intrest rates again.

2015 is absolutely looking to be the time int rates do come back with fiery and a true bottom in RE will be established. Perhaps below the already so called established lows... Undoubtedly price will let us know, it will speak for itself.

FunTime   Wed, 24 Oct 2012, 3:57am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

As much as this report tries to be cheery, the fourth graph on Page 2, showing houses held off the marke,t shows we're at 4 million houses being held off the market. What's that about? I think the system is still being gamed. Be careful all you small-timers, and we're all small-timers, the big money is in control.

http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=sept_nat2012_sc_final.pdf

Mobi   Wed, 24 Oct 2012, 4:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

JodyChunder says

To be fair, I also think, from a buy-and-hold primary residence viewpoint, there's really no rush to buy.

This is my viewpoint until recently. I used to think it is better to have the flexibility in case I lose my job. Now I figure maybe it is better to "own a loan" so that I can squat for two more years. Talking about a messed up sysem and the influence on me... The key is whether I can get a 3.5% down payment FHA loan.

SkyPirate   Thu, 25 Oct 2012, 12:36am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

Sheesh people, stop with the ad-hominem attacks. There are two sides to every coin and I for one want to see both. Some people are investing in this market and others are very bearish. No need for insults.

Good story ptiemann.

PockyClipsNow   Tue, 18 Dec 2012, 1:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 14

Phoenix market sure turned on a dime. I guess a 20k condo is not a sustainable price when a CD pays 1%. Pretty simple looking back...

FortWayne   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 1:01am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

Will never trust a businessman when he uses the word "honest" in a sentence.

FunTime   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:01am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

E-man says

Has it never been a housing bubble in the Bay Area?

This is the latest one.

JodyChunder   Mon, 25 Feb 2013, 5:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

Denver's prices make no fucking sense right now.

FortWayne   Tue, 26 Feb 2013, 1:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 18

Phoenix is a place that will never ever be worth it. Doesn't mean few people won't make their money doing rentals or investors won't flip stuff to each other back and forth until someone is left with the empty bag, but overall it's a has been kind of like Detroit.

The Professor   Sun, 3 Mar 2013, 9:25am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 19

According to Zillow there are 19k properties for sale and 13k properties for pre sale, total 32k, in Maricopa County which has a population of almost 4 million.

Los Angeles County has 14k properties for sale and 25k for pre sale, total 39k and a population of almost 10 million.

LA county is 2.5 times the size of Maricopa but has less properties for sale.

Is Roberto really gone or does he have some explanation?

The Professor   Sun, 3 Mar 2013, 10:18am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 20

WillyWanker says

I guess it's a mistake to buy a house in an area that has seen 23% YOY price jumps?

It was in 2005.

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