:-)


By thankshousingbubble   Follow   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 1:19pm PDT   19,232 views   92 comments   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (4)  

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exflirt   befriend (1)   ignore (0)   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 10:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

Quigley says

Who the hell cares for Phoenix prices? Phoenix prices have absolutely no friggin bearing on prices in California.

Who said they did, and what does California have to do with anything? Lots of people care about Phoenix prices - it's one of the largest metros in the country, duh.

This is a housing board, not a California housing board. Don't read the Phoenix threads if YOU'RE not interested in the Phoenix market trends.

Seriously...

GlobalRoamer   befriend (1)   ignore (1)   Sat, 10 Nov 2012, 2:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 14

Regular Sales Will Rise.

Hi Roberto. How are the acquisitions going? I'm closing on another place Tuesday - but not Arizona. Good inventory is hard to come by.

In other markets I am seeing a resurgence of regular sales.

As prices rise there are owners who were underwater but not willing to do a short sale flooding the market. Many are overpriced as owners put their houses on the market for what they owe - not the current market value (list and pray).

I haven't seen this in the PHX market yet as the price decline was more severe and most who bought at the peak are still underwater. If prices keep rising you will see some - people who put down a lot or people who bought before 2001.

Where I am now the flood of regular sales have dampened demand for distressed sales. Hence I am picking up a few bargains here and there.

I do think there is still a lot of inventory underwater in Phoenix. So I see foreclosures / shorts continuing for at least 3 or 4 years. Their impact on prices will be less as there are many more 'investors' than there were in '09 or '10 willing to buy anything that looks remotely like a bargain.

Barring a fiscal cliff tragedy, I think prices will continue to itch up close to replacement cost.

The Professor   befriend (5)   ignore (3)   Sun, 11 Nov 2012, 7:37am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

I found 1835 2+ bedroom rentals for less than $600 in Phoenix

http://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2

I found 25 2+ bedroom rentals for less than 600 in the entire SF bay area,

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2

Why are rentals so cheap and plentiful in Phoenix?

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Tue, 13 Nov 2012, 10:43am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

War says

RobbertoRealtor.... you're deleting posts to supress the truth about housing. Why?

Indulging in your usual deleting routine, I see.

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Tue, 13 Nov 2012, 10:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

War says

Yeah. It seems roberto wants to surpress the truth about housing by deleting.

I have to say it's rather strange of Patrick to allow him to delete your posts. I guess it's his next step seeing as you always circumvent his bans.

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Tue, 13 Nov 2012, 10:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

War says

Rather strange? It's one of the benefits of paid membership. Maybe we should become paid members so we can delete your posts. hmmmm?

Oh, but Roberto doesn't have one of those lovely gold stars under his name. Clearly he's been given special dispensation to remove every single one of your posts after other people have already quoted and responded to them. Power indeed.

FortWayne   befriend (12)   ignore (3)   Wed, 14 Nov 2012, 12:08am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 19

You are underestimating CA sales taxes a bit there. They've recently raised them.

This state only knows how to take all our money and hand them over to the greedy unions.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend (8)   ignore (6)   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 9:34am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

War says

Uh huh.... And you can ask $50k for your used honda civic too.

I'll take it! 50K today when it could be worth 100k in 500 years at today's asset appreciation rates. My grandson's grandson's grandson's grandson will be rich I tell yah. I can't wait.

FunTime   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 10:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

Robert Shiller: We might see a housing bubble in some cities. Notably...we already, looks like there's already in Phoenix and San Francisco...

FunTime   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 11:24pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

Even though this is the Press Release, not the report, I like reading about the info from the source of the info.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245343891446

bmwman91   befriend (7)   ignore (1)   Mon, 17 Dec 2012, 10:11am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 23

Personally, I have NO fears about the fiscal cliff in 2013. The can will get a big old kick at 11:59:59. I can't believe that anyone actually thinks that our inept government would pursue any course of action other than this. The republicans are retarded, but they are not so stupid as to disrupt the status quo in any meaningful way. Same goes for the democrats. They can both feign disagreement on various fiscal talking points and then get uncle Ben to make some power moves to avert the reckoning for another year or two. Then the circus comes back to town for a repeat performance. I agree that at SOME point we may finally go off the cliff as it looks like an inevitability, but I think that the status quo will be maintained this time around. All the huffing and puffing by our "leaders" is for show, I think.

Out of curiosity, what will drive the "inevitable" house price appreciation? I agree that it is inevitable if inventories stay way below historical norms like they have been. Are we in a new paradigm where housing will be dominated almost solely by yield-chasers and the individual owner-occupier no longer participates in a meaningful way?

bmwman91   befriend (7)   ignore (1)   Mon, 17 Dec 2012, 10:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 24

1. I happen to work in high-volume consumer electronics development/manufacturing. Automation won't bring jobs back here. The entire supply chain is in Asia and it is not moving here. I'd prefer it stay there. Anyone that has actually been to industrial China would. As much as Steve Jobs was a big asshole, he was dead-on when he explained to Obama why we will never produce iPhones in the USA. Supply chain. Automation could cut the production cost in half, but consumers would still pay twice as much because of the logistical problems that stem from getting all of the raw materials there to factories here.

2. Possibly. If Asia is willing to pay more for the energy than America, it will all be sold to Asia. It will go where there is the most profit, without regard for what is "good" for America.

3. Where will these "displaced workers" find employment? If you are educated in something useful you have a shot at a "better" job. Maybe if energy takes off like you say there will be job growth there. Outside of FIRE and service sector jobs that produce little-to-nothing, I am not sure where job growth will come from.

4. Convenience is, and will continue to increase. No argument here. It's all trinkety crap and no meaningful innovation. New applications of mostly existing technology. Maybe working in the industry has made me jaded, but I don't see any real human "progress" in the perfection of disposable consumer goods and the proliferation of web-advertising (*ahem* social media). Keep buying it though, it puts food on my table!

As far as I can see, the bulk of our economy is fueled by consumption which is easily outpacing production. I don't see how it is sustainable. Maybe I am totally wrong and will realize it in 5 years, I don't know. Everyone thinks that their generation is at the helm of a ship that is about to sink. Maybe the idiocy that I see rampant in every corner of our nation has always been there and is just more visible thanks to the internet, I don't know.

PockyClipsNow   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Tue, 18 Dec 2012, 1:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 25

Phoenix market sure turned on a dime. I guess a 20k condo is not a sustainable price when a CD pays 1%. Pretty simple looking back...

FortWayne   befriend (12)   ignore (3)   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 1:01am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 26

Will never trust a businessman when he uses the word "honest" in a sentence.

FunTime   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:01am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 27

E-man says

Has it never been a housing bubble in the Bay Area?

This is the latest one.

Mick Russom   befriend (2)   ignore (0)   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 3:18pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 28

U6 is 15%. We have a japan style ZIRP in place with trillions in money being QEinfinity keeping the joke afloat.

This place is a mess. This is the end of the middle class. If housing pops again, it will break the back of the pack mule carrying all the freight.

swebb   befriend (3)   ignore (2)   Mon, 25 Feb 2013, 12:28pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

Denver didn't get whacked like Phoenix did, so we can't expect the same kind of increases, but prices are up, inventory is down, and correctly priced houses are gone in a few weeks (if not during the first weekend). My Redfin notifications (on my iPhone app) have been going absolutely insane over the past 2-3 weeks. Lots of activity. I got lucky to buy when I did (just 1 month ago).

JodyChunder   befriend (2)   ignore (5)   Mon, 25 Feb 2013, 5:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 30

Denver's prices make no fucking sense right now.

FortWayne   befriend (12)   ignore (3)   Tue, 26 Feb 2013, 1:03am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 31

Phoenix is a place that will never ever be worth it. Doesn't mean few people won't make their money doing rentals or investors won't flip stuff to each other back and forth until someone is left with the empty bag, but overall it's a has been kind of like Detroit.

Mobi   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 26 Feb 2013, 3:41am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 32

FortWayne says

Phoenix is a place that will never ever be worth it. Doesn't mean few people won't make their money doing rentals or investors won't flip stuff to each other back and forth until someone is left with the empty bag, but overall it's a has been kind of like Detroit.

People flip houses and do rental investment at about everywhere on earth but it is hard to see the similarity between Detroit and Phoenix.

The Professor   befriend (5)   ignore (3)   Sun, 3 Mar 2013, 9:25am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 33

According to Zillow there are 19k properties for sale and 13k properties for pre sale, total 32k, in Maricopa County which has a population of almost 4 million.

Los Angeles County has 14k properties for sale and 25k for pre sale, total 39k and a population of almost 10 million.

LA county is 2.5 times the size of Maricopa but has less properties for sale.

Is Roberto really gone or does he have some explanation?

The Professor   befriend (5)   ignore (3)   Sun, 3 Mar 2013, 10:18am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 34

WillyWanker says

I guess it's a mistake to buy a house in an area that has seen 23% YOY price jumps?

It was in 2005.

waiting_for_the_fall   befriend (1)   ignore (1)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 8:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 35

What happens when water wars change the price of water in desert areas? Let's say there's a long term drought, 10+ years, where the price per month of water goes up to say...$300/month in desert areas?
If landlords try to pass the high water price on to renters, the renter will just move away. For owner occupied, they are more likely to stay because it will be harder for them to sell into a crashing market.
After 10+ years of drought and high water prices, the outlying areas of Pheonix will look like ghost towns. With fewer people in the Phoenix area, the price per houshold of water will probably decrease, allowing the remaining people in the city center to stay. But they probably will pay $100 or more per month for water.
I'm sure you have alot of arguments against this happening and why nothing bad like this could ever happen to Phoenix (or you).
Good luck with that.

PockyClipsNow   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 9:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 36

Water wars sounds like a great movie!

The RE bears are now inventing fiction since no facts support future price drops.

I waited too long to buy back in. Was lucky to buy last year. When i sell my house for 1.2m i will be sure to logon here with the news. Then retire to AZ where i can carry a gun everywhere like the old west.

waiting_for_the_fall   befriend (1)   ignore (1)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 10:02am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 37

It's happened before, it most likely will happen again.
http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/02/19/021911-opinions-history-hooverdam-farrington-1-3/

CameronCrazy   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 10:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 38

I'll take real estate advice from a realtor when I take diet advice from Willy Wonka.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 11:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 39

PockyClipsNow says

The RE bears are now inventing fiction since no facts support future price drops.

As much as sales data may mean something to a buyer, those aren't the facts. It's the principle of the greater fool, and we just saw that in 2006, and 2007.

I don't really know what perma bear means, but I do know there has been a long term strategy of Real Estate market timing. You buy when people are selling, and sell when people are buying.

That market timing has, in the past, been based on a decade long cycle such as between 1976, 1986, 1996, and 2006. Those were good times to buy except that 2006 thing.

Between 1998, and 2003 the Real Estate market changed radically, and globally. It wasn't just here in the good old USofA, it was Europe, Asia, and Africa. After the crash in 2008 South America then took off as the emerging Real Estate markets.

While people here blame our government for the change in Real Estate it doesn't explain what happened in the other markets until you look at banking.

Real Estate is always a good investment. Owning rentals is a good investment, but the strategy has changed. The Housing Industry has changed.

The economy has changed.

Banks are in control of large blocks of property. They are selling today for a premium, have cleared the books of dead wood, and they may well be done. I think banks will pull out of Real Estate next year 2014, from what Bernanke has said about the Fed.

Some properties will always be good, some other will adjust according to what the market will bear.

Because of that volitility I would rather have my money elsewhere right now.

So, I don't know if that is a perma bear position, because I own property. I just also know that we will sell another place this year rather than rent it out, but keep the commercial property, and land.

While I was writing this the Dow broke through the 2007 record high. How about that Dow? In terms of short terms gain, what about those that bought in 2008? or even last year?

I understand about the leverage, but still something has changed in terms of investment.

Mobi   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 11:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 40

PockyClipsNow says

Water wars sounds like a great movie!


The RE bears are now inventing fiction since no facts support future price drops.


I waited too long to buy back in. Was lucky to buy last year. When i sell my house for 1.2m i will be sure to logon here with the news. Then retire to AZ where i can carry a gun everywhere like the old west.

Sounds like a plan. Fortunately or unfortunately, I cannot find any house selling 1.2 M in the future at where I live. May need to find some other ways to get some money to retire in AZ.

Mobi   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 4 Mar 2013, 11:48pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 41

David Losh says

As much as sales data may mean something to a buyer, those aren't the facts.
It's the principle of the greater fool, and we just saw that in 2006, and
2007.

Like it or not, this IS the game nowadays. You can choose not to play the game but it does not necassarily mean people will all lose shirts by playing it.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Tue, 5 Mar 2013, 12:21am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)