Watch1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures
Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.
Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.
2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.
3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix
Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...
This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.
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The Professor says
good luck with that... half the listings on craigslist are bs... and lots of those under 600 rentals are in places you couldn't pay me to live...
But then again, last year you could have bought some 2 bedroom condos for 20K in those same neighborhoods... Pure slumlording ain't my thing, so I stuck to the parts of town I know, and have lived in...
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robertoaribas says
Wow! There are that many rentals in Phoenix in slummy areas?
I've worked in Phoenix a couple of times back in the 90s and it seemed like a nice place except for the heat and the sprawl.
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According to Trans-Union credit reporting agency, Mortgages 60 or more days late dropped from 5.49% to 5.41% in the last quarter. A year ago, they were 5.88%, so Nationally, an 8% reduction in a year.
BUT, in Arizona (and California) the drop was much more extreme. Arizona dropped from 7.46% Q3 2011 to 5.62% That is a fairly stunning improvement for just one year, and goes a long way to putting to rest any fantasy theories of shadow inventory coming to market. Several factors in play are likely to sustain this rapid decline in late mortgages going forward:
1. Increasing home values raise some owners to positive equity, drastically lowering their odds of foreclosure.
2. Harp.x refinancing for owners means many people will be paying lower payments, in many cases less than equivalent rent with today's super low interest rates. This too serves as a disincentive to let the home go.
3. Gradually improving economy. revisions to employment numbers have come in, showing the economy has added an average of 177,000 jobs over the past three months. Not stellar, but certainly small positive signs never the less.
The number of homes actually still in the Maricopa county foreclosure pipeline took a big drop in October, according to foreclosureradar.com
04013 - Foreclosure Filings
04013 - Foreclosure Inventories
Notice in the second graph, Oct 2012 has approximately a total of 23,000 distressed property in the pipeline, compared to 35,500 a year ago. It bears thinking about, that the Phoenix market managed a price increase of roughly 20 to 30% on average, while reducing pending foreclosures by 12,500.
This reduction of distressed inventory has actually accelerated at the end of the year, and would leave Phoenix with no distressed inventory in roughly a year and a half. [Even postulating another year or so to handle legacy short sales that aren't in default, as anyone can see, all the data points to the very worst factors of the past six years disappearing from the Phoenix market in the very near future]
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Refuting our resident idiot's claim that Phoenix housing prices are dropping:
Notice the lower tier? flat for 2011, and up from 70 to 100 in 2012 so far? I've been buying in this tier since 2011, and in addition to substantial rental income, a nearly 50% increase in value is... well... very surprising indeed.
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hmmm, the only post with DATA gets shoved to the bottom by war's constant quest to dominate the link list...
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War, I'm sure if you post things that have FACTS in them, or constructive thoughts ,they will stay up...
When you post your normal nonsense, it is a disservice to all readers of this blog.
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War says
Indulging in your usual deleting routine, I see.
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War says
I have to say it's rather strange of Patrick to allow him to delete your posts. I guess it's his next step seeing as you always circumvent his bans.
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War says
Oh, but Roberto doesn't have one of those lovely gold stars under his name. Clearly he's been given special dispensation to remove every single one of your posts after other people have already quoted and responded to them. Power indeed.
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You'll have to ask Patrick about that... If he doesn't post spam like posts, I suppose they'll stay.
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robertoaribas says
He's just deleting his own posts. He does it all the time and then accuses whoever he has been responding to of spamming the thread. I guess that's what trolls do. Takes all sorts.
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California Income Taxes are Twice as Much as Arizona Income Taxes
Arizona California
Income Tax 4.54% 9.30%
State Sales Tax 6.60% 7.25%
Property Tax Per Capita $1,043% $1,449
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You are underestimating CA sales taxes a bit there. They've recently raised them.
This state only knows how to take all our money and hand them over to the greedy unions.
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Median asking price went up again in Phoenix. I'm so glad I ignored darrell, war, dunross, etc. on here, and bought all those homes over the past two years!
And unlike darrell and his other brother darrell, I source my numbers
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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War says
7200 sold in the past 30 days, 18,000 actively for sale... while you laugh, prices keep rising here... I'm the one laughing, laughing right to the bank!
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War says
I'll take it! 50K today when it could be worth 100k in 500 years at today's asset appreciation rates. My grandson's grandson's grandson's grandson will be rich I tell yah. I can't wait.
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you nitwitz keep up the humor, I'll keep on raking in the money... that private island retirement is getting closer and closer!
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Robert Shiller: We might see a housing bubble in some cities. Notably...we already, looks like there's already in Phoenix and San Francisco...
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let's have another bubble! woot! woot!
I want to someday sell just 2 of my 13 homes, and get all the money back I put into this game!
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War says
here's to bubbles!
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Phoenix prices up 20% year over year, per case-shiller index released this morning... and up 1.1% in the last month...
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/money/article_f7cc59c2-389e-11e2-aa30-001a4bcf887a.html
No sign price increases are stopping, except in war and darrel's delusional minds!
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robertoaribas says
I took what Shiller said to mean you have a bubble right now. Act Fast. This offer is time sensitive.
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Even though this is the Press Release, not the report, I like reading about the info from the source of the info.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245343891446
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Phoenix Zillow Home Value Index
Phoenix real estate info
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Phoenix Total Homes Sold
Phoenix real estate info
no cratering demand in Phoenix, when you make an honest graph...
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robertoaribas says
Private island? I bet then you can easily convince yourself that the sole real estate property on an island populated by 1 man and dog will appreciate 40%/yr. :)
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robertoaribas says
How is a graph honest with two thousand units above and below any data point on a scale zero to six thousand?
See what I mean? As you approach a bigger and bigger number on your scale, your line gets flatter? Is that what you want? That doesn't seem as helpful. One might even think of it as more and less "resolution" as I often heard said when looking at graphed data points.
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http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Inventory seems to have stabalized at 18,000 still down 16% on a year over year basis.
Meanwhile, while the median listing price has stabalized these last several weeks, the 25th percentile has continued to increase. Since all of my investment properties are in the bottom quartile, these increases are being quite kind to my equity.
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Ok, we got another release of Phoenix asking prices and inventory, from the independent source:
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix
Median asking price up 3.6% month over month...and 26.5% year over year.
Inventory dropped 5% month over month, kind of a surprise there, and down 16% year over year.
So, more good news for the Phoenix market. With notices of foreclosure running at 7 year lows, I expect Phoenix home prices to slowly strengthen into the spring and summer. In fact, the only thing I could see stopping prices from increasing next year, would be a steep recession.
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robertoaribas says
Obvious statement is obvious lol.
Is the addition of that little caveat a result of actual concern that the Fed will allow market fundamentals to regain control, or is it just sort of a fun little tidbit you thought you'd toss in to excite the resident bears? I assume you wouldn't mention it unless you thought that it was actually some sort of possibility.
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bmwman91 says
The fiscal cliff is the big issue of concern. I don't have any faith in congress, especially the stupid GOP to not throw the economy under the bus. If they were more intelligent, they would eventually give up on rising taxes on the wealthy, and force some serious compromises on govt. spending. Those, together with continued growth of the economy would be a great start to ending the deficit spending problem.
But, I don't have faith, with the teatards in the GOP, that this will happen.
Fall of the cliff, and we could be in a recession for most of the year which would once again hurt housing and sentiment. I don't think it would last more than a year though, and it would delay the inevitable house appreciation by 2 or 3 years...
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04013 - Foreclosure Filings
Forclosure Radar released their November data today. This is a new low for foreclosure filings since maybe 2006...
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Personally, I have NO fears about the fiscal cliff in 2013. The can will get a big old kick at 11:59:59. I can't believe that anyone actually thinks that our inept government would pursue any course of action other than this. The republicans are retarded, but they are not so stupid as to disrupt the status quo in any meaningful way. Same goes for the democrats. They can both feign disagreement on various fiscal talking points and then get uncle Ben to make some power moves to avert the reckoning for another year or two. Then the circus comes back to town for a repeat performance. I agree that at SOME point we may finally go off the cliff as it looks like an inevitability, but I think that the status quo will be maintained this time around. All the huffing and puffing by our "leaders" is for show, I think.
Out of curiosity, what will drive the "inevitable" house price appreciation? I agree that it is inevitable if inventories stay way below historical norms like they have been. Are we in a new paradigm where housing will be dominated almost solely by yield-chasers and the individual owner-occupier no longer participates in a meaningful way?
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bmwman91 says
Japan and Germany embarked on robust growth within 10 years of us bombing them into shizzle. Truthfully, our financial issues pail when compared to all of your infrastructure being destoyed.
We've now had 7 years of research, that companies have not invested enough into due to the recession.
1. I expect a HUGE manufacturing resurgence in the US as we automate processes. (this will not lead to the same number of jobs as in the past; a few employees, a bunch of robots, but the growth will be here nevertheless)
2. I expect the US to become energy independent in short order. New drilling technologies combined with more efficient cars. (anybody else notice how cars are getting better, quicker, these days? I think I will lease a car for the first time in my life this summer, because I believe 3 years from now, new cars will be so much better that i'll want to upgrade)
3. Though it would seem that automating jobs would lead to unemployment, and thus be bad, that has never been the case historically. When the US went from 80% of the population working on farms, down to about 10%, the economy actually grew and added jobs even faster.
4. Everything is getting easier. 20 years ago, we got the graphing calculator. today, I can ask my cell phone hard calculus problems in my voice, and it does a pretty good job sometimes. What will it do in five years? 20 years ago, I used a map book to get around town. 10 years ago, i bought an expensive gps. Today, I just tell my phone where I want to go... What will we have to work with in 5 years? 10 years?
The economy 10 years from now will look nothing like the one that we watched stumble from 2006 - 2012, and it will really look like 'why were we so upset back then?"
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1. I happen to work in high-volume consumer electronics development/manufacturing. Automation won't bring jobs back here. The entire supply chain is in Asia and it is not moving here. I'd prefer it stay there. Anyone that has actually been to industrial China would. As much as Steve Jobs was a big asshole, he was dead-on when he explained to Obama why we will never produce iPhones in the USA. Supply chain. Automation could cut the production cost in half, but consumers would still pay twice as much because of the logistical problems that stem from getting all of the raw materials there to factories here.
2. Possibly. If Asia is willing to pay more for the energy than America, it will all be sold to Asia. It will go where there is the most profit, without regard for what is "good" for America.
3. Where will these "displaced workers" find employment? If you are educated in something useful you have a shot at a "better" job. Maybe if energy takes off like you say there will be job growth there. Outside of FIRE and service sector jobs that produce little-to-nothing, I am not sure where job growth will come from.
4. Convenience is, and will continue to increase. No argument here. It's all trinkety crap and no meaningful innovation. New applications of mostly existing technology. Maybe working in the industry has made me jaded, but I don't see any real human "progress" in the perfection of disposable consumer goods and the proliferation of web-advertising (*ahem* social media). Keep buying it though, it puts food on my table!
As far as I can see, the bulk of our economy is fueled by consumption which is easily outpacing production. I don't see how it is sustainable. Maybe I am totally wrong and will realize it in 5 years, I don't know. Everyone thinks that their generation is at the helm of a ship that is about to sink. Maybe the idiocy that I see rampant in every corner of our nation has always been there and is just more visible thanks to the internet, I don't know.
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Phoenix market sure turned on a dime. I guess a 20k condo is not a sustainable price when a CD pays 1%. Pretty simple looking back...
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bmwman91 says
Some of you might laugh at this comment, but we're going to have a housing shortage in the very near future if we're not there already. Yes, a housing shortage near job centers. Why do you think rent spiked so much in the Bay Area in the last 1.5 years or so? Econ 101. :)
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FunTime says
Has it never been a housing bubble in the Bay Area?
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PockyClipsNow says
simple looking back, but I remember being pretty scared when I started buying... prices were dropping so fast, that a linear regression on my condos had them at zero in five more months!
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Ya mon, I just got back from 8 days in Jamiaca!
time to update the Phoenix market for the new year and the title of our story is:
INVENTORY DROPPING!
At this very second, we have 17,173 homes in active status on the market, down roughly 1000 in just a month, and down 1500 from a couple months ago. This is a startling change, as inventory had been climbing, and I was fully expecting to see it climb up to 22000 or 23000 by spring.
Sales held up strong in December, at 7091. This means the entire market has 2.4 months inventory for sale, when a balanced market has more like 4 to 5 months inventory. Supply remains very tight relative to demand, and that points to continued price increases.
For an independent look at this type of data, I suggest. housingtracker.net.
The second characteristic of our Phoenix market is declining foreclosures. December saw roughly 2100 NTR (notice of trustee sales) filed. This is a new low for the past six years, and portends a very dramatic slow down in bank foreclosures. The month saw 1500 actual foreclosures (trust deed sales) and 1700 foreclosure sales cancelled. So, we ended December with 1100 less homes in foreclosure than we started the month. For an independent look at the foreclosure data, the following chart from foreclosureradar.com may be helpful:
04013 - Foreclosure Filings
04013 - Foreclosure Outcomes
Given the extremely low inventory, and lower rate of foreclosures Phoenix is seeing at the start of this year than we had last year, and that prices rose strongly all of last year, every measurable indicator points to continued price increases for the Phoenix market in 2013...