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Honest info, Phoenix market...

By robertoaribas   Follow   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 8:19pm   10,149 views   228 comments
In Scottsdale AZ 85250   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)  

1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures

Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.

Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.

2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.

3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix

Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...

This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.

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1. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   29   4:39pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix area for sale: 5,777 results Pre-Market: 7,804 results Source:zillow

2. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   30   4:44pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Quigley says Who the hell cares for Phoenix prices? Say, I have a smashing idea! If you don't care about Phoenix market info, you could um,,, oh,,, say not read threads with titles "Honest Info, Phoenix market"? I mean, what did you expect to find in this thread, a recipe for pumpkin soup? bubblesitter says Phoenix area for sale: 5,777 results Pre-Market: 7,804 results Source:zillow Phoenix area, sold in a month is 6500 or so... In other words, those numbers mean precisely diddly hear, 2 months inventory, not any kind of problem at all!

3. exflirt Follow Befriend (1) 43 comments Chandler, AZ

   31   6:56am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Quigley says Who the hell cares for Phoenix prices? Phoenix prices have absolutely no friggin bearing on prices in California. Who said they did, and what does California have to do with anything? Lots of people care about Phoenix prices - it's one of the largest metros in the country, duh. This is a housing board, not a California housing board. Don't read the Phoenix threads if YOU'RE not interested in the Phoenix market trends. Seriously...

4. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   32   7:24am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Phoenix area, sold in a month is 6500 or so... Huh? How?

5. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   33   5:45pm Fri 9 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In october, Phoenix cleared roughly 1500 foreclosures out of the pipeline. Simply stated, there were 1500 more completed and cancelled foreclosures than new notices...[according to Michael Orr, local professor of real estate studies, we had 13,000 in the pipeline, while foreclosureradar.com has it at 17,400] At 1500 a month however, we are on a trajectory to zero in 9 to 12 months, depending on whose numbers you use, if this trend continues... I thought I'd get a jump ahead, and see if November shows anything different, since some national numbers had indicated a reversal in foreclosure trends... NOPE! so far, we have had 400 more homes leave the foreclosure pipeline, then have entered. Precisely the same rate as last month so far. My gut feeling, is that two powerful effects are going to propel this trend on: The fast price rises in many Phoenix zips are beginning to melt away a lot of the negative equity that can lead to foreclosures, and the high volumes of refinancing under harp.x are going to remove many too. A phoenix market, without much foreclosure or short sale inventory could be coming, and that will be a big change from the past six years.

6. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   34   11:58am Sat 10 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Using my own methodology, I just searched all filed foreclosures through the local mls tax information link, and found 11,700 as of today. I am feeling more and more confident that by next spring/summer, foreclosure listings are completely finished having any significant effect on the Phoenix housing market. Digging further, in 3 of the hardest hit zip codes of South Phoenix, 85040,85041,85042, when I look at single family homes built since 1990, under $140K, I found 36 for sale. Fully 16 of these are distressed sales (short sale, bank or HUD owned) of the other 20, all but 5 were investor flips. (the investor bought either a short sale, or a bank owned home in the prior year, and is re-selling it for profit) Of the remaining five, 3 were longer term investors selling out, and 2 were normal owners. One normal owner was selling for a loss, the other appeared to be trying to break even. Why do I analyze this in such granularity? Well, as foreclosures and short sales end, in due time, nearly all of this inventory will not re-occur. Fully 31 of the 36 homes require that a foreclosure or short sale happened for them to be available for sale. As foreclosures and short sales end, this cheaper inventory will disappear.

7. GlobalRoamer Follow Befriend (1) 17 comments

   35   10:43pm Sat 10 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Regular Sales Will Rise. Hi Roberto. How are the acquisitions going? I'm closing on another place Tuesday - but not Arizona. Good inventory is hard to come by. In other markets I am seeing a resurgence of regular sales. As prices rise there are owners who were underwater but not willing to do a short sale flooding the market. Many are overpriced as owners put their houses on the market for what they owe - not the current market value (list and pray). I haven't seen this in the PHX market yet as the price decline was more severe and most who bought at the peak are still underwater. If prices keep rising you will see some - people who put down a lot or people who bought before 2001. Where I am now the flood of regular sales have dampened demand for distressed sales. Hence I am picking up a few bargains here and there. I do think there is still a lot of inventory underwater in Phoenix. So I see foreclosures / shorts continuing for at least 3 or 4 years. Their impact on prices will be less as there are many more 'investors' than there were in '09 or '10 willing to buy anything that looks remotely like a bargain. Barring a fiscal cliff tragedy, I think prices will continue to itch up close to replacement cost.

8. The Professor Follow Befriend (5) 24 threads 1,302 comments Premium

   36   3:37pm Sun 11 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I found 1835 2+ bedroom rentals for less than $600 in Phoenix http://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2 I found 25 2+ bedroom rentals for less than 600 in the entire SF bay area, http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2 Why are rentals so cheap and plentiful in Phoenix?

9. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   37   7:01pm Sun 11 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Professor says http://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2 I found 25 2+ bedroom rentals for less than 600 in the entire SF bay area, http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2 Why are rentals so cheap and plentiful in Phoenix? good luck with that... half the listings on craigslist are bs... and lots of those under 600 rentals are in places you couldn't pay me to live... But then again, last year you could have bought some 2 bedroom condos for 20K in those same neighborhoods... Pure slumlording ain't my thing, so I stuck to the parts of town I know, and have lived in...

10. The Professor Follow Befriend (5) 24 threads 1,302 comments Premium

    38   9:23pm Sun 11 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Pure slumlording ain't my thing, so I stuck to the parts of town I know, and have lived in... Wow! There are that many rentals in Phoenix in slummy areas? I've worked in Phoenix a couple of times back in the 90s and it seemed like a nice place except for the heat and the sprawl.

11. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    39   5:52pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   According to Trans-Union credit reporting agency, Mortgages 60 or more days late dropped from 5.49% to 5.41% in the last quarter. A year ago, they were 5.88%, so Nationally, an 8% reduction in a year. BUT, in Arizona (and California) the drop was much more extreme. Arizona dropped from 7.46% Q3 2011 to 5.62% That is a fairly stunning improvement for just one year, and goes a long way to putting to rest any fantasy theories of shadow inventory coming to market. Several factors in play are likely to sustain this rapid decline in late mortgages going forward: 1. Increasing home values raise some owners to positive equity, drastically lowering their odds of foreclosure. 2. Harp.x refinancing for owners means many people will be paying lower payments, in many cases less than equivalent rent with today's super low interest rates. This too serves as a disincentive to let the home go. 3. Gradually improving economy. revisions to employment numbers have come in, showing the economy has added an average of 177,000 jobs over the past three months. Not stellar, but certainly small positive signs never the less. The number of homes actually still in the Maricopa county foreclosure pipeline took a big drop in October, according to foreclosureradar.com 04013 - Foreclosure Filings 04013 - Foreclosure Inventories Notice in the second graph, Oct 2012 has approximately a total of 23,000 distressed property in the pipeline, compared to 35,500 a year ago. It bears thinking about, that the Phoenix market managed a price increase of roughly 20 to 30% on average, while reducing pending foreclosures by 12,500. This reduction of distressed inventory has actually accelerated at the end of the year, and would leave Phoenix with no distressed inventory in roughly a year and a half. [Even postulating another year or so to handle legacy short sales that aren't in default, as anyone can see, all the data points to the very worst factors of the past six years disappearing from the Phoenix market in the very near future]

12. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    40   6:09pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Refuting our resident idiot's claim that Phoenix housing prices are dropping: Notice the lower tier? flat for 2011, and up from 70 to 100 in 2012 so far? I've been buying in this tier since 2011, and in addition to substantial rental income, a nearly 50% increase in value is... well... very surprising indeed.

13. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    41   6:32pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   hmmm, the only post with DATA gets shoved to the bottom by war's constant quest to dominate the link list...

14. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    42   6:38pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   War, I'm sure if you post things that have FACTS in them, or constructive thoughts ,they will stay up... When you post your normal nonsense, it is a disservice to all readers of this blog.

15. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    43   6:43pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   War says RobbertoRealtor.... you're deleting posts to supress the truth about housing. Why? Indulging in your usual deleting routine, I see.

16. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    44   6:51pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   War says Yeah. It seems roberto wants to surpress the truth about housing by deleting. I have to say it's rather strange of Patrick to allow him to delete your posts. I guess it's his next step seeing as you always circumvent his bans.

17. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    45   6:59pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   War says Rather strange? It's one of the benefits of paid membership. Maybe we should become paid members so we can delete your posts. hmmmm? Oh, but Roberto doesn't have one of those lovely gold stars under his name. Clearly he's been given special dispensation to remove every single one of your posts after other people have already quoted and responded to them. Power indeed.

18. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    46   7:09pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   You'll have to ask Patrick about that... If he doesn't post spam like posts, I suppose they'll stay.

19. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    47   7:34pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says You'll have to ask Patrick about that... If he doesn't post spam like posts, I suppose they'll stay. He's just deleting his own posts. He does it all the time and then accuses whoever he has been responding to of spamming the thread. I guess that's what trolls do. Takes all sorts.

20. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    48   8:12pm Tue 13 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   California Income Taxes are Twice as Much as Arizona Income Taxes Arizona California Income Tax 4.54% 9.30% State Sales Tax 6.60% 7.25% Property Tax Per Capita $1,043% $1,449

21. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,762 comments

    49   8:08am Wed 14 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   You are underestimating CA sales taxes a bit there. They've recently raised them. This state only knows how to take all our money and hand them over to the greedy unions.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    50   5:11pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Median asking price went up again in Phoenix. I'm so glad I ignored darrell, war, dunross, etc. on here, and bought all those homes over the past two years! And unlike darrell and his other brother darrell, I source my numbers http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

23. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    51   5:22pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   War says Uh huh.... And you can ask $50k for your used honda civic too. 7200 sold in the past 30 days, 18,000 actively for sale... while you laugh, prices keep rising here... I'm the one laughing, laughing right to the bank!

24. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    52   5:34pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   War says Uh huh.... And you can ask $50k for your used honda civic too. I'll take it! 50K today when it could be worth 100k in 500 years at today's asset appreciation rates. My grandson's grandson's grandson's grandson will be rich I tell yah. I can't wait.

25. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    53   5:38pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   you nitwitz keep up the humor, I'll keep on raking in the money... that private island retirement is getting closer and closer!

26. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    54   6:42pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Robert Shiller: We might see a housing bubble in some cities. Notably...we already, looks like there's already in Phoenix and San Francisco...

27. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    55   7:26pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   let's have another bubble! woot! woot! I want to someday sell just 2 of my 13 homes, and get all the money back I put into this game!

28. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    56   7:37pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   War says robertoaribas says let's have another drink! woot! woot! Fixed it for you roberto. lmao here's to bubbles!

29. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    57   7:05am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix prices up 20% year over year, per case-shiller index released this morning... and up 1.1% in the last month... http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/money/article_f7cc59c2-389e-11e2-aa30-001a4bcf887a.html No sign price increases are stopping, except in war and darrel's delusional minds!

30. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    58   7:21am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says let's have another bubble! woot! woot! I took what Shiller said to mean you have a bubble right now. Act Fast. This offer is time sensitive.

31. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    59   7:24am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Even though this is the Press Release, not the report, I like reading about the info from the source of the info. http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245343891446

32. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    60   7:43am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Phoenix Zillow Home Value IndexPhoenix real estate info

33. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    61   7:45am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Phoenix Total Homes SoldPhoenix real estate info no cratering demand in Phoenix, when you make an honest graph...

34. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    62   9:12am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says you nitwitz keep up the humor, I'll keep on raking in the money... that private island retirement is getting closer and closer! Private island? I bet then you can easily convince yourself that the sole real estate property on an island populated by 1 man and dog will appreciate 40%/yr. :)

35. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    63   11:30am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says no cratering demand in Phoenix, when you make an honest graph... How is a graph honest with two thousand units above and below any data point on a scale zero to six thousand? See what I mean? As you approach a bigger and bigger number on your scale, your line gets flatter? Is that what you want? That doesn't seem as helpful. One might even think of it as more and less "resolution" as I often heard said when looking at graphed data points.

36. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    64   11:25pm Mon 10 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ Inventory seems to have stabalized at 18,000 still down 16% on a year over year basis. Meanwhile, while the median listing price has stabalized these last several weeks, the 25th percentile has continued to increase. Since all of my investment properties are in the bottom quartile, these increases are being quite kind to my equity.

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    65   4:39pm Mon 17 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ok, we got another release of Phoenix asking prices and inventory, from the independent source: http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix Median asking price up 3.6% month over month...and 26.5% year over year. Inventory dropped 5% month over month, kind of a surprise there, and down 16% year over year. So, more good news for the Phoenix market. With notices of foreclosure running at 7 year lows, I expect Phoenix home prices to slowly strengthen into the spring and summer. In fact, the only thing I could see stopping prices from increasing next year, would be a steep recession.

38. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    66   5:48pm Mon 17 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says In fact, the only thing I could see stopping prices from increasing next year, would be a steep recession. Obvious statement is obvious lol. Is the addition of that little caveat a result of actual concern that the Fed will allow market fundamentals to regain control, or is it just sort of a fun little tidbit you thought you'd toss in to excite the resident bears? I assume you wouldn't mention it unless you thought that it was actually some sort of possibility.

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    67   5:52pm Mon 17 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   bmwman91 says I assume you wouldn't mention it unless you thought that it was actually some sort of possibility. The fiscal cliff is the big issue of concern. I don't have any faith in congress, especially the stupid GOP to not throw the economy under the bus. If they were more intelligent, they would eventually give up on rising taxes on the wealthy, and force some serious compromises on govt. spending. Those, together with continued growth of the economy would be a great start to ending the deficit spending problem. But, I don't have faith, with the teatards in the GOP, that this will happen. Fall of the cliff, and we could be in a recession for most of the year which would once again hurt housing and sentiment. I don't think it would last more than a year though, and it would delay the inevitable house appreciation by 2 or 3 years...

40. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,783 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    68   6:04pm Mon 17 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   04013 - Foreclosure Filings Forclosure Radar released their November data today. This is a new low for foreclosure filings since maybe 2006...

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