Watch1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures
Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.
Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.
2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.
3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix
Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...
This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.
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Phoenix area
for sale: 5,777 results
Pre-Market: 7,804 results
Source:zillow
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Quigley says
Say, I have a smashing idea! If you don't care about Phoenix market info, you could um,,, oh,,, say not read threads with titles "Honest Info, Phoenix market"? I mean, what did you expect to find in this thread, a recipe for pumpkin soup?
bubblesitter says
Phoenix area, sold in a month is 6500 or so... In other words, those numbers mean precisely diddly hear, 2 months inventory, not any kind of problem at all!
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Chandler, AZ
Quigley says
Who said they did, and what does California have to do with anything? Lots of people care about Phoenix prices - it's one of the largest metros in the country, duh.
This is a housing board, not a California housing board. Don't read the Phoenix threads if YOU'RE not interested in the Phoenix market trends.
Seriously...
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robertoaribas says
Huh? How?
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In october, Phoenix cleared roughly 1500 foreclosures out of the pipeline. Simply stated, there were 1500 more completed and cancelled foreclosures than new notices...[according to Michael Orr, local professor of real estate studies, we had 13,000 in the pipeline, while foreclosureradar.com has it at 17,400] At 1500 a month however, we are on a trajectory to zero in 9 to 12 months, depending on whose numbers you use, if this trend continues...
I thought I'd get a jump ahead, and see if November shows anything different, since some national numbers had indicated a reversal in foreclosure trends... NOPE! so far, we have had 400 more homes leave the foreclosure pipeline, then have entered. Precisely the same rate as last month so far.
My gut feeling, is that two powerful effects are going to propel this trend on: The fast price rises in many Phoenix zips are beginning to melt away a lot of the negative equity that can lead to foreclosures, and the high volumes of refinancing under harp.x are going to remove many too.
A phoenix market, without much foreclosure or short sale inventory could be coming, and that will be a big change from the past six years.
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Using my own methodology, I just searched all filed foreclosures through the local mls tax information link, and found 11,700 as of today. I am feeling more and more confident that by next spring/summer, foreclosure listings are completely finished having any significant effect on the Phoenix housing market.
Digging further, in 3 of the hardest hit zip codes of South Phoenix, 85040,85041,85042, when I look at single family homes built since 1990, under $140K, I found 36 for sale. Fully 16 of these are distressed sales (short sale, bank or HUD owned) of the other 20, all but 5 were investor flips. (the investor bought either a short sale, or a bank owned home in the prior year, and is re-selling it for profit)
Of the remaining five, 3 were longer term investors selling out, and 2 were normal owners. One normal owner was selling for a loss, the other appeared to be trying to break even.
Why do I analyze this in such granularity? Well, as foreclosures and short sales end, in due time, nearly all of this inventory will not re-occur. Fully 31 of the 36 homes require that a foreclosure or short sale happened for them to be available for sale. As foreclosures and short sales end, this cheaper inventory will disappear.
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Regular Sales Will Rise.
Hi Roberto. How are the acquisitions going? I'm closing on another place Tuesday - but not Arizona. Good inventory is hard to come by.
In other markets I am seeing a resurgence of regular sales.
As prices rise there are owners who were underwater but not willing to do a short sale flooding the market. Many are overpriced as owners put their houses on the market for what they owe - not the current market value (list and pray).
I haven't seen this in the PHX market yet as the price decline was more severe and most who bought at the peak are still underwater. If prices keep rising you will see some - people who put down a lot or people who bought before 2001.
Where I am now the flood of regular sales have dampened demand for distressed sales. Hence I am picking up a few bargains here and there.
I do think there is still a lot of inventory underwater in Phoenix. So I see foreclosures / shorts continuing for at least 3 or 4 years. Their impact on prices will be less as there are many more 'investors' than there were in '09 or '10 willing to buy anything that looks remotely like a bargain.
Barring a fiscal cliff tragedy, I think prices will continue to itch up close to replacement cost.
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I found 1835 2+ bedroom rentals for less than $600 in Phoenix
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2
I found 25 2+ bedroom rentals for less than 600 in the entire SF bay area,
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&useMap=1&minAsk=&maxAsk=600&bedrooms=2
Why are rentals so cheap and plentiful in Phoenix?
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The Professor says
good luck with that... half the listings on craigslist are bs... and lots of those under 600 rentals are in places you couldn't pay me to live...
But then again, last year you could have bought some 2 bedroom condos for 20K in those same neighborhoods... Pure slumlording ain't my thing, so I stuck to the parts of town I know, and have lived in...
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robertoaribas says
Wow! There are that many rentals in Phoenix in slummy areas?
I've worked in Phoenix a couple of times back in the 90s and it seemed like a nice place except for the heat and the sprawl.
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According to Trans-Union credit reporting agency, Mortgages 60 or more days late dropped from 5.49% to 5.41% in the last quarter. A year ago, they were 5.88%, so Nationally, an 8% reduction in a year.
BUT, in Arizona (and California) the drop was much more extreme. Arizona dropped from 7.46% Q3 2011 to 5.62% That is a fairly stunning improvement for just one year, and goes a long way to putting to rest any fantasy theories of shadow inventory coming to market. Several factors in play are likely to sustain this rapid decline in late mortgages going forward:
1. Increasing home values raise some owners to positive equity, drastically lowering their odds of foreclosure.
2. Harp.x refinancing for owners means many people will be paying lower payments, in many cases less than equivalent rent with today's super low interest rates. This too serves as a disincentive to let the home go.
3. Gradually improving economy. revisions to employment numbers have come in, showing the economy has added an average of 177,000 jobs over the past three months. Not stellar, but certainly small positive signs never the less.
The number of homes actually still in the Maricopa county foreclosure pipeline took a big drop in October, according to foreclosureradar.com
04013 - Foreclosure Filings
04013 - Foreclosure Inventories
Notice in the second graph, Oct 2012 has approximately a total of 23,000 distressed property in the pipeline, compared to 35,500 a year ago. It bears thinking about, that the Phoenix market managed a price increase of roughly 20 to 30% on average, while reducing pending foreclosures by 12,500.
This reduction of distressed inventory has actually accelerated at the end of the year, and would leave Phoenix with no distressed inventory in roughly a year and a half. [Even postulating another year or so to handle legacy short sales that aren't in default, as anyone can see, all the data points to the very worst factors of the past six years disappearing from the Phoenix market in the very near future]
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Refuting our resident idiot's claim that Phoenix housing prices are dropping:
Notice the lower tier? flat for 2011, and up from 70 to 100 in 2012 so far? I've been buying in this tier since 2011, and in addition to substantial rental income, a nearly 50% increase in value is... well... very surprising indeed.
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hmmm, the only post with DATA gets shoved to the bottom by war's constant quest to dominate the link list...
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War, I'm sure if you post things that have FACTS in them, or constructive thoughts ,they will stay up...
When you post your normal nonsense, it is a disservice to all readers of this blog.
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War says
Indulging in your usual deleting routine, I see.
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War says
I have to say it's rather strange of Patrick to allow him to delete your posts. I guess it's his next step seeing as you always circumvent his bans.
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Monterey, CA
War says
Oh, but Roberto doesn't have one of those lovely gold stars under his name. Clearly he's been given special dispensation to remove every single one of your posts after other people have already quoted and responded to them. Power indeed.
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You'll have to ask Patrick about that... If he doesn't post spam like posts, I suppose they'll stay.
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robertoaribas says
He's just deleting his own posts. He does it all the time and then accuses whoever he has been responding to of spamming the thread. I guess that's what trolls do. Takes all sorts.
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California Income Taxes are Twice as Much as Arizona Income Taxes
Arizona California
Income Tax 4.54% 9.30%
State Sales Tax 6.60% 7.25%
Property Tax Per Capita $1,043% $1,449
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You are underestimating CA sales taxes a bit there. They've recently raised them.
This state only knows how to take all our money and hand them over to the greedy unions.
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Median asking price went up again in Phoenix. I'm so glad I ignored darrell, war, dunross, etc. on here, and bought all those homes over the past two years!
And unlike darrell and his other brother darrell, I source my numbers
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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War says
7200 sold in the past 30 days, 18,000 actively for sale... while you laugh, prices keep rising here... I'm the one laughing, laughing right to the bank!
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War says
I'll take it! 50K today when it could be worth 100k in 500 years at today's asset appreciation rates. My grandson's grandson's grandson's grandson will be rich I tell yah. I can't wait.
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you nitwitz keep up the humor, I'll keep on raking in the money... that private island retirement is getting closer and closer!
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Robert Shiller: We might see a housing bubble in some cities. Notably...we already, looks like there's already in Phoenix and San Francisco...
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let's have another bubble! woot! woot!
I want to someday sell just 2 of my 13 homes, and get all the money back I put into this game!
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War says
here's to bubbles!
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Phoenix prices up 20% year over year, per case-shiller index released this morning... and up 1.1% in the last month...
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/money/article_f7cc59c2-389e-11e2-aa30-001a4bcf887a.html
No sign price increases are stopping, except in war and darrel's delusional minds!
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robertoaribas says
I took what Shiller said to mean you have a bubble right now. Act Fast. This offer is time sensitive.
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Even though this is the Press Release, not the report, I like reading about the info from the source of the info.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245343891446
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Phoenix Zillow Home Value Index
Phoenix real estate info
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Phoenix Total Homes Sold
Phoenix real estate info
no cratering demand in Phoenix, when you make an honest graph...
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robertoaribas says
Private island? I bet then you can easily convince yourself that the sole real estate property on an island populated by 1 man and dog will appreciate 40%/yr. :)
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robertoaribas says
How is a graph honest with two thousand units above and below any data point on a scale zero to six thousand?
See what I mean? As you approach a bigger and bigger number on your scale, your line gets flatter? Is that what you want? That doesn't seem as helpful. One might even think of it as more and less "resolution" as I often heard said when looking at graphed data points.
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http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
Inventory seems to have stabalized at 18,000 still down 16% on a year over year basis.
Meanwhile, while the median listing price has stabalized these last several weeks, the 25th percentile has continued to increase. Since all of my investment properties are in the bottom quartile, these increases are being quite kind to my equity.
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Ok, we got another release of Phoenix asking prices and inventory, from the independent source:
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix
Median asking price up 3.6% month over month...and 26.5% year over year.
Inventory dropped 5% month over month, kind of a surprise there, and down 16% year over year.
So, more good news for the Phoenix market. With notices of foreclosure running at 7 year lows, I expect Phoenix home prices to slowly strengthen into the spring and summer. In fact, the only thing I could see stopping prices from increasing next year, would be a steep recession.
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robertoaribas says
Obvious statement is obvious lol.
Is the addition of that little caveat a result of actual concern that the Fed will allow market fundamentals to regain control, or is it just sort of a fun little tidbit you thought you'd toss in to excite the resident bears? I assume you wouldn't mention it unless you thought that it was actually some sort of possibility.
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bmwman91 says
The fiscal cliff is the big issue of concern. I don't have any faith in congress, especially the stupid GOP to not throw the economy under the bus. If they were more intelligent, they would eventually give up on rising taxes on the wealthy, and force some serious compromises on govt. spending. Those, together with continued growth of the economy would be a great start to ending the deficit spending problem.
But, I don't have faith, with the teatards in the GOP, that this will happen.
Fall of the cliff, and we could be in a recession for most of the year which would once again hurt housing and sentiment. I don't think it would last more than a year though, and it would delay the inevitable house appreciation by 2 or 3 years...
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04013 - Foreclosure Filings
Forclosure Radar released their November data today. This is a new low for foreclosure filings since maybe 2006...