Watch1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures
Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.
Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.
2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.
3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix
Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...
This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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robertoaribas says
See? where do come up with your fantasies?
We owned that place since 1984, and should have sold any time earlier. '
You don't know Real Estate.
My market place is different from yours, but you don't get that. Most of the country is different than yours, but you don't listen.
You should try to learn something here, or anywhere.
No one needs you selling your formula of last year's business plan, for Phoenix.
Just keep it here where you can control the comments.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
David Losh says
On your blog, you mention you could have sold the Atlanta home for 90k just two years earlier. But not you, no. You held out for the exact bottom and sold it for 30k. Good thinking.
You said on here, last year, that my investments made no sense. Homes bought for 80k that rent for a 1000 month don't make sense to you. Another home with a mortgage of 700 and rent of 1500 doesn't make sense to you.
So, you don't understand making money, and by your own admissions, made the worst timing decision in history on a home you bought in 1984... Yet you think your opinions matter????? That is why I call you stupid, because well, you are very stupid!
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robertoaribas says
double the piti
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
housingtracker.net released their weekly listing price data, and Phoenix continued its torrid asking price increases.
In fact, the median jumped nearly $5000 in the week, and is up $10,000 in just a month. Surprisingly, the 75th percentile has been climbing swiftly as well.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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Tarzana, CA
robertoaribas says
Current, active listings here in the Los Angeles area are routinely re-priced adding 25% or more.
Great time to Sell !
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
David9 says
yeah, if you are an idiot! great time to keep it and watch the value climb higher...
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
Foreclosure Filings: Arizona > Maricopa County
As I mentioned on the 1st of the month, NTR (notice of future foreclosures, 90 days prior to an auction in Arizona) continued their dive in February. Likewise actual foreclosures... Simply put, if you are waiting on that alleged Tsunami of shadow homes to bring down prices, you might as well wait for the Great Pumpkin with Charlie Brown!
Foreclosure Inventories: Arizona > Maricopa County
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The Professor says
It's fairly obvious that Roberto did not buy the house with near-zero down payment. He probably did a fair amount of repairs too. Otherwise, a first-time home buyer with the help of an FHA loan would be able to bid much higher than Roberto
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robertoaribas's website
2 bought with mortgages, 2 bought cash and then refinanced after the fact... 9 bought pure cash. I still owe roughly 180K to a few friends who loaned me some of the cash... I am going to refinance 1 home at the one year anniversary of purchase this fall (so I can use its appraised value, and not the original purchase price of $85K) , and pay the rest off by years end.
You can't win the bidding wars with an FHA loan, and many properties would not have qualified for FHA.
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Ok, so last night I did a little bit of digging into Phoenix area housing information:
First I pulled up all of the single family homes, 3 bedroon 1.75 baths, 2 car garage, built since 1970 inside the 101 and 202 loop roads. Basically, I wanted to look at starter homes, within commute distance of Phoenix, not either obvious junk, or homes 100 miles away.
I limited the price to under $200K.
There were 581 available.
Then, I changed the search to closed in the past 30 days. 909. What? we have 2/3 a month inventory of starter homes? that is ridiculously low!
My business partner has been trying to find such a home for his buyer for several weeks, and keeps telling me that "every non junk home gets multiple offers as soon as it hits the market." Well, seeing this data, I can see why.
Prices are just going to keep rising in Phoenix, until such a day as the supply and demand change by a ton. A balanced market needs about 4 to 6 months inventory.
The other factor, is that in each of those statistics above, roughly 30% of the listings and sales were short sale and or bank owned. With foreclosures and notice of future foreclosures plummeting by over 60% from last year, and inevitably rising values will end slow the short sales, those sources of new inventory are simply not going to exist much longer...
This type of analysis, which one can find all over Patrick.net posted by me, is why my market predictions have been correct for over 8 years now, and the emotional nonsense of the permabears today, and the permabulls year sago who have criticized me have all been wrong.
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As usual you dug just deep enough to support your view.
Phoenix listings are up year over year and sales are down year over year. That is a fact!
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
yup1 says
yup1, the loser idiot is back. try looking at housingtracker.net or any other source, listing are actually still down on a year over year basis, by about 8%...
hey dipstick, last go round, you argued against my investment advice about six months ago... prices US WIDE have risen since then, and in phoenix, by about 15%...
how does it feel to always be wrong? I guess you're used to it by now!!!
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I will note again that I am not going to resort to name calling. I see that you cannot do the same.
My source was Redfin
http://www.redfin.com/city/14240/AZ/Phoenix
Homes for sale in Phoenix UP 2.8% year over year.
Number of homes sold in Phoenix DOWN 13.1% year over year.
Feel free to link your source.
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It also mirrors Maricopa county
http://www.redfin.com/county/220/AZ/Maricopa-County
For sale UP 1.6% yoy
Sale DOWN 11.4% yoy
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
www.housingtracker.net
redfin/zillow/trulia have grossly outdated data...
I'm sure you also noticed the 25% increase in both asking and sales prices.... hmmm instead, you didn't mention that...
good call six months and a year ago, saying I was wrong!
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
yup1:
who freaking cares? I insult you, because you are so damn stupid. You claimed prices would drop like six months ago, care to revisit that? do you have any idea how dumb these comments of yours will make you look, as the market continues to see strong price increases all spring and summer?
Hey, prices went up 10% but inventory was up 2% six months ago!!!
prices are up 24% in a year... so what if sales slowed a little, that would actually be expected. the surprise, is that given such a huge price increase, there isn't more inventory. Did you ever even take econ 101, because your posting implies you didn't! Anyone with a brain would expect supply to rise a hell of a lot more, given the large increase in price, and demand to drop a lot more.
Listing prices are currently increasing at 3 to 4% a month, and as my detailed analysis shows, we STILL don't have enough supply to meet demand.
so, post whatever you want, nitwit. Prices here are going to keep rising, and you will keep being wrong. Some things just stay the same!
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robertoaribas says
I did.
Did you notice the 29% spread between Ask and Bid.
I would say that shows a very dysfuntional market.
What say you Mr econ 101?
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
yup1 says
fairly standard for housing... more expensive homes stay on the market longer, cheaper ones sell quicker.
you really are stupid, by the way!
2/3 a month inventory in starter homes shows dysfunction: Way too high demand, relative to supply, prices will continue to rise.
EVERYTHING you post, tries to imply the opposite. You are wrong, i am right, which is actually par for all of our exchanges, and really, everyone else on this dumb site that argues with me.
I deserve to be this arrogant. The entire weight of this site has argued against me for years, and I have been right all along; You sir, have never been right about anything on here, if you were smarter, you'd never debate me again given your track record.
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Roberto are you really a 14 year old girl? I ask because you act like one.
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
I'd say it's rather pointless to nitpick data in an effort to try and score one over someone who has clearly done alright for himself with his purchases irrespective of whether prices continue to rise or not. What is it that you are trying to demonstrate?
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robertoaribas says
Weight of this site? Take a break dude, seriously. This is the internet...
I have said many times and I will say it again that
"Roberto A Ribas Phoenix purchases in 2011 look brilliant as a short term investment and they may turn out to be great long term investments."
I have never said that "I have been right all along" like you routinely proclaim.
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Bigsby says
Irrespective of whether prices continue to rise or not? And if they fall? If they crash? If there is another global market panic?
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
Why do you keep trying to poke holes in what he has done then?
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Bigsby says
I am not poking holes in what he has done. We are talking about the future and I am poking holes in his vision of what the future will be. That is what investing is about, guessing what the future holds. That is why it is so funny watching him proclaim his victory. He can proclaim victory when he has liquidated for a profit, or dies while still holding his valueable property that has funded a lavish retirement. Prior to that time he has paper profits that can rapidly become paper losses.
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
Oh for crying out loud. He bought a bunch of dirt cheap properties at an historically low point in the Phoenix market. Even if the prices declined substantially from here, he'd still be well ahead. Just look at his rent in contrast to his PITI. It doesn't matter to him. He has got so much room for maneuver that it's almost laughable, and yet you are still trying to make out that he has made a bad move. No, he hasn't. Short-term or long-term he is quite clearly going to do OK for himself, and more than likely, a lot better than that.
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
What's he saying? That prices will go up in the near term in Phoenix? That's a stunning and outrageous prediction. Or rather it isn't. Beyond that, I don't recall him saying much. He can sit on his investments and collect his income. It's a pretty bloody good return for the money spent by anyone's standards and to argue otherwise is bloody stupid. And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people, would it not, so I ask again, what is it that you are trying to prove?
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yup1 says
A large amount of money by investors has been put into the RE market, just like Roberto has done. They are chasing returns, playing the spread, and hoping to cash out in the future or dump it on something/somebody else if not. is it wrong? Or is it wrong because you did or didn't do the same thing?
Or are you really an alter-ego alias of Roberto that tries to reinforce his success, and does he really need to? Or not?
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Bigsby says
If incomes collapse? If rents collapse? Ever heard of the great depression? Ever heard of a global financial panic? Ever heard of a currency collapse? Water shortage? Dust bowl? Have you ever considered that the bulk of his gains are entirely due to things outside of his control, the Fed, FHA, FASB, extremely low interest rates. Oh for crying out load history doesn't repeat itself........
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Bigsby says
I am not trying to prove anything. He thinks that the future is bright, his rentals will stay full and the price will continue to appreciate. I think the future is bleak, good jobs are gone, incomes will continue to fall, and rents and home values will decline.
The better question is why are you looking for proof on an online forum?
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
ok, yup1, fair enough...
In fact, I pointed out rising inventory many months ago on here, and on my blog when inventory was rising. It is not rising now, it has reversed several thousand of the prior increase...
I assume that by next month, inventory will be higher on a year over year basis. NOT because it will rise, because last year it fell like a goddamn brik down a well. that may have been a one time historical inventory drop.
Nevertheless, what I am seeing in asking prices, sales prices, bidding wars and not accepted over list offers right now, is reminiscent of last year; Prices for the foreseeable future, are going to rise, and rise fast.
I told my own stupid cousin this six months ago, but he decided to wait to buy. BIG mistake for him, as prices are much higher in the type of home he wants. Since he rents a room in my house, and I will get the commission when he buys, clearly my advice to him was counter to my own self interest, which I know everyone on here thinks an agent will never do. I'll actually miss the goofball when he leaves though, we're pretty good friends.
so, back to analyzing a housing market: You can always find data pro and con buying. Patrick.net is proof of that, with the best investment point in history passing right on by, while a great deal of the regulars on here debated less important facts and theories ad-nasuem.
the thing is, you have to identify WHICH factors are truly important. Even if it were true, which at this moment it is not, is a 2.8% inventory rise significant year on year? NO! not with entire classes of homes still in such short supply. In fact, I would argue the drop from 4500 notice of trust sales a year ago, to 1700 last month is much more important: tha portends 1300 less distressed homes coming on the market in 3 to 6 months from now.
I would happily trade off a 20% increase in inventory right now, if the forelcosure filings dropped to zero. prices wouldn't increase for the next 2 months, and then, all bets would be off.
You have to balance the importance of the statistics to the market.
this website has had a HUGE problem with that; Worrying too much about the deficits future possible effects on housing, worrying what will happen if/when interest rates go up 2 to 10 years from now...
Those are at best 3rd or 4th order concerns. Price/rent is 1st. supply/demand is first. foreclosure filings, delinquent mortgages are second ,as they are predictive for six to twelve months later.
All the primary data turned very very positive 2 years ago, and has continued to improve. Move worrying about asteroids and north korea down the list...
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
Oh FFS, what if a giant asteroid hits the bloody planet?
His gains have come from buying at just about the perfect time in a market that overshot it's historical trend lines after the bursting of an enormous housing bubble. It doesn't matter to him what outside influences there were or are on the housing market. The fact is he bought at a very good time, and all you are doing is throwing out ridiculous what ifs in an attempt to attack his investments (whilst simultaneously commenting about how good they were - go figure).
Like I said, you, sir, really are clutching at straws and it's becoming a bit embarrassing.
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
Proof? Proof of what? I own a house that I can easily afford. End of story as far as my real estate involvement goes. I simply come here for a bit of light relief, which your posts most certainly supply.
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Bigsby says
You are the one looking for proof on Patrick.net, talk about embarassing.
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Only time will tell........
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
I'm not looking for anything (outside a spot of entertainment) from Patnet. And anyway, what is this supposed proof I'm searching for? I just thought I was here to pointlessly kill a bit of time reading froth at the mouth attacks by people like yourself on others who appear to have done a bit better with their investment decisions. But hey, you seem to have all the answers. It's just a shame that they always appear to be wrong.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
"only time will tell"
in the long run, we are all dead. North Korea could lob a poorly designed nuclear bomb onto any one of our heads, so we better worry about that!
EVERYTHING in life is expected value.
could something happen, making my investment the worst decision ever? sure, the reactor could blow up... I could have a stroke today while walking my dog. Then, I wasted all the time over the last two years working on houses, when I could have been travelling and having fun!
you have to play the odds and the hand you have, you can't worry about everything!
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Los Angeles, CA
robertoaribas says
Nothing ventured, nothing gained. . . .
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robertoaribas says
Great post above. Worth repeating.
The stuff on Patrick's book and overly debated here is Kindergarden stuff and clearly wrong. It will give you all kinds of opposite signal and lead to mistakes. ThomasWong is a prime example of who not to listen to, represent a lot, but knows little at a deeper level. It has already has cost people money and will continue to do so.
I appreciate AZrob injecting applied mathematics into real situition based on social science and numbers that are relevant.
Yes, his language can be a little rude, but I would too if I speak with another adult only to find out they are thinking like a prechool child.
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Bigsby says
I realize that you do not agree with me which is fine. You never point out any of Roberto's "mouth attacks" which happen to be far more often than mine and are far more personal. I will point out that you know nothing about my own investment decisions.
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Monterey, CA
yup1 says
I frequently criticize Roberto's unnecessary insults as a matter of fact, but in some cases, and with some posters, I can quite understand why he does it.
And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better than his?