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Shiller: Housing Market Could Take 50 Years Of Inflation To Reach Bubble Prices


By Patrick   Follow   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 11:13am PST   2,151 views   15 comments
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/49623744

“It can get big as it was again maybe in 50 years. This housing bubble was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, I imagine,” Shiller said

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Goran_K   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 1:27pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 1

Well Tulips never bubbled again in Europe, but who knows?

theoakman   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 10:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 2

Goran_K says

Well Tulips never bubbled again in Europe, but who knows?

real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country. It always does because people are always obsessed with land. Whenever the credit system expands more than it should, regardless of the reason (stock market, railroads, Nasdaq), real estate bubbles along with it.

zzyzzx   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 10:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

50 years is a nice round number that sounds like something that people pulled off the top of their head and didn't calculate.

upisdown   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 11:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

While Shiller is very good at analyzing after the fact data and making references to it, his crystal ball has quite a few cracks in it. His predictions of the bottom and near future really suck.

Goran_K   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 12:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 5

theoakman says

real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

FunTime   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 1:43am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

upisdown says

While Shiller is very good at analyzing after the fact data and making references to it, his crystal ball has quite a few cracks in it. His predictions of the bottom and near future really suck.

You're not paying attention. Shiller doesn't make predictions and almost always says in interviews that he doesn't know the future. His statements are, more than not, connected with past data. He knows the past data doesn't predict the future, which is why he says words like "likely" or "probably." Those words suggest statistics.

BoomAndBustCycle   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 1:45am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

LiarWatch says

Nonsense.

The Great Housing Fraud of 1996-2012 was a once in history event.

So you just called a bottom in 2012? The fraud is over.. nice!

theoakman   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 2:34am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 8

Goran_K says

theoakman says

real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

I didn't say anything about magnitude of the rise jerk off. Maybe you can post the same chart another 5 years straight.

Goran_K   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 3:59am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 9

theoakman says

I didn't say anything about magnitude of the rise jerk off. Maybe you can post the same chart another 5 years straight.

I think that was what was missing from your post (didn't mean to offend). Sure there have been bubbles, but none quite like the 2000s housing bubble. It's a once in a life time type of event (which was Shiller's point in case you missed it). I'm just disappointed it had to happen during my life time.

P N Dr Lo R   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 8:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 10

Goran_K says

It's a once in a life time type of event (which was Shiller's point in case you missed it).

Just looking at the stratospheric height of that one graph compared to all the others throughout history should be enough to convince one of that!

Zakrajshek   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 11:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

Other than war, I've not seen the level of misery that resulted from the housing bubble and bust; and all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government.

thomaswong.1986   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 2:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Goran_K says

theoakman says

real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

more like deflation vs more recent inflation was common since the beginning of the nation. we had long long periods of falling prices on RE ....

thomaswong.1986   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 2:47pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

Zakrajshek says

Other than war, I've not seen the level of misery that resulted from the housing bubble and bust; and all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government.

this one is charming....

Rick Santelli Educates MSLSD's Chris Matthews

P N Dr Lo R   Thu, 8 Nov 2012, 12:06am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 14

Zakrajshek says

all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government

...complicit with dishonest, greedy or incompetent home buyers.

37108605   Thu, 8 Nov 2012, 12:10am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

It just kills me that the country is so God damn in debt growing daily, Jan 1st is looming with potential economic disaster as a result, and? They fucking go for another round with this crew. By the time this crew is out this time around most Americans will be fortunate to be able to turn on lights in the dark.

More than ever now, they can take all real estate and its related fraud and shove it straight up their arse. They aren't taking me and my family down in debt with their real estate bullshite.

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