Shiller: Housing Market Could Take 50 Years Of Inflation To Reach Bubble Prices


By Patrick   Follow   Sun, 4 Nov 2012, 7:13pm   1,980 views   15 comments
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/49623744

“It can get big as it was again maybe in 50 years. This housing bubble was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, I imagine,” Shiller said

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  1. Goran_K


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    1   9:27pm Sun 4 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    Well Tulips never bubbled again in Europe, but who knows?

  2. theoakman


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    2   6:13am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Goran_K says

    Well Tulips never bubbled again in Europe, but who knows?

    real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country. It always does because people are always obsessed with land. Whenever the credit system expands more than it should, regardless of the reason (stock market, railroads, Nasdaq), real estate bubbles along with it.

  3. zzyzzx


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    3   6:22am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    50 years is a nice round number that sounds like something that people pulled off the top of their head and didn't calculate.

  4. upisdown


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    4   7:43am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    While Shiller is very good at analyzing after the fact data and making references to it, his crystal ball has quite a few cracks in it. His predictions of the bottom and near future really suck.

  5. Goran_K


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    5   8:13am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    theoakman says

    real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

    I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

  6. FunTime


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    6   9:43am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    upisdown says

    While Shiller is very good at analyzing after the fact data and making references to it, his crystal ball has quite a few cracks in it. His predictions of the bottom and near future really suck.

    You're not paying attention. Shiller doesn't make predictions and almost always says in interviews that he doesn't know the future. His statements are, more than not, connected with past data. He knows the past data doesn't predict the future, which is why he says words like "likely" or "probably." Those words suggest statistics.

  7. BoomAndBustCycle


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    7   9:45am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    Nonsense.

    The Great Housing Fraud of 1996-2012 was a once in history event.

    So you just called a bottom in 2012? The fraud is over.. nice!

  8. theoakman


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    8   10:34am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    Goran_K says

    theoakman says

    real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

    I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

    I didn't say anything about magnitude of the rise jerk off. Maybe you can post the same chart another 5 years straight.

  9. Goran_K


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    9   11:59am Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    theoakman says

    I didn't say anything about magnitude of the rise jerk off. Maybe you can post the same chart another 5 years straight.

    I think that was what was missing from your post (didn't mean to offend). Sure there have been bubbles, but none quite like the 2000s housing bubble. It's a once in a life time type of event (which was Shiller's point in case you missed it). I'm just disappointed it had to happen during my life time.

  10. P N Dr Lo R


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    10   4:02pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    It's a once in a life time type of event (which was Shiller's point in case you missed it).

    Just looking at the stratospheric height of that one graph compared to all the others throughout history should be enough to convince one of that!

  11. Zakrajshek


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    11   7:37pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Other than war, I've not seen the level of misery that resulted from the housing bubble and bust; and all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government.

  12. thomaswong.1986


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    12   10:41pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    theoakman says

    real estate has bubbled about a dozen times since the beginning of this country.

    I think you're ignoring a basic concept sometimes referred to as magnitude.

    more like deflation vs more recent inflation was common since the beginning of the nation. we had long long periods of falling prices on RE ....

  13. thomaswong.1986


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    13   10:47pm Mon 5 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Zakrajshek says

    Other than war, I've not seen the level of misery that resulted from the housing bubble and bust; and all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government.

    this one is charming....

    Rick Santelli Educates MSLSD's Chris Matthews

  14. P N Dr Lo R


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    14   8:06am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Zakrajshek says

    all of it caused by a few greedy or incompetent people in banking and government

    ...complicit with dishonest, greedy or incompetent home buyers.

  15. 37108605


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    15   8:10am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    It just kills me that the country is so God damn in debt growing daily, Jan 1st is looming with potential economic disaster as a result, and? They fucking go for another round with this crew. By the time this crew is out this time around most Americans will be fortunate to be able to turn on lights in the dark.

    More than ever now, they can take all real estate and its related fraud and shove it straight up their arse. They aren't taking me and my family down in debt with their real estate bullshite.

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