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My predictions for tomorrow's election


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 3:54pm   4,420 views   62 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

Obama will win the popular vote by 1%. Florida is too close to call although I think Romney will squeak out a win here. The rest of the map will look like this:

Senate results: Democrats retain the Senate with 53 votes. (including 2 independents)
House results: No big change here. Democrats will probably pick up a handful of seats.

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  1. zzyzzx


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    23   7:22am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    HEY YOU says

    My prediction for tomorrow is that someone will win.

    We really don't know that for sure, but I hope you are right.

  2. zzyzzx


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    24   7:24am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thunderlips11 says

    I wonder if unemployment will play a big role this year: Unemployed people may go to the polls is larger numbers since in other years they would have been to busy working. Curious to see if that plays out and/or if anybody measures it.

    I suppose exit polls could answer that, but since those tend to be unreliable we'll never know.

    No line at my polling place this morning, but then again, there never is.

  3. zzyzzx


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    25   7:27am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    My bold prediction for election day:

    The stock market will go up. Doesn't even matter who gets elected today, the market hates uncertainty. I was thinking about making a thread about this in the investing section to see if anyone was buying random stocks today with intent to sell later this week.

  4. zzyzzx


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    26   7:31am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    HEY YOU says

    My prediction for tomorrow is that someone will win.

    http://www.wcax.com/story/20012087/nh-towns-cast-first-ballots

    DIXVILLE NOTCH, NH -

    In the tiny town of Dixville Notch, N.H., the presidential vote ended in a historical first.

    In a tradition that started more than 40 years ago, the town of 10 registered voters all cast their ballots right after midnight on Election Day, and the results are tallied immediately.

    This year, President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney each received five votes from Dixville Notch.

    The tie is a historical first for the midnight vote.

    Of course, article fails to mention how these towns voted last time.

  5. PolishKnight


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    27   7:42am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Da bears! :-)

    (For those of you who don't get it, google up SNL and "da bears".

  6. tatupu70


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    28   8:05am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    PolishKnight says

    Da bears! :-)


    (For those of you who don't get it, google up SNL and "da bears".

    My prediction:

    Ditka wins presidency in a landslide.

  7. edvard2


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    29   8:29am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Honest Abe says

    Some rousing election day music for commies. Obama supporters will love it!

    After Obama wins the election I would hope that those out there who are still using 1950's era scare tactics ( ooooohhhh! Communism!) will come to the realization that they need to find another fictitious boogieman.

  8. zzyzzx


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    30   8:50am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This election crap is going to ruin my TV watching tonight, unless I only watch stuff from my DVR, right?

  9. iwog


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    31   8:53am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Best election coverage tonight will be on Comedy Central.

  10. edvard2


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    32   8:54am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    zzyzzx says

    This election crap is going to ruin my TV watching tonight, unless I only watch stuff from my DVR, right?

    Luckily I don't have cable anymore. I got one of those little boxes and a netflix account. My plan is to simply wake up Wed and see what happened. That's what I did in 2008.

  11. zzyzzx


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    33   8:55am Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Best election coverage tonight will be on Comedy Central.

    I don't have cable. I'll be watching whatever is on This! TV tonight (and Escape from NY is on This! TV at 10PM)

  12. bdrasin


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    34   8:37pm Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Your map is looking pretty good right now. VA could go either way but so f'ing what.

  13. Goatkick


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    35   8:48pm Tue 6 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    game over man

  14. iwog


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    36   12:10am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    The huge shocker in this election is the Senate. +3????

    Wow.

  15. HEY YOU


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    37   12:14am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    HEY YOU says

    My prediction for tomorrow is that someone will win.

    I'm a genius!

  16. msilenus


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    38   12:19am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    The huge shocker in this election is the Senate. +3????
    Wow.

    Where are you seeing that?

  17. iwog


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    39   12:21am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  
  18. msilenus


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    40   12:25am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Okay. That's gross, and I thought you were talking about net. The Dems are netting zero currently. CNN just called Nevada for the Republican candidate. Montana and North Dakota are still up in the air.

    A hold is a great result in a year where you're defending twice as many seats and the electorate is restless, but a gain would send a better message to the opposition.

  19. Bellingham Bill


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    41   12:46am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    McConnell's going to have 1 or 2 fewer people in his caucus next year, depending on how ND goes (Dem is +3000 with all precincts in).

    http://results.sos.nd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

    Losing Nelson from the Dem caucus isn't much of a net loss, either.

    I see the Libertarian is playing the good spoiler role in MT:

    http://electionresults.sos.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

  20. HeadSet


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    42   7:32am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    Incredible pick, IWOG. It is as if you had the day after's newspaper delivered 2 days in advance.

  21. bdrasin


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    43   7:51am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    HeadSet says

    Incredible pick, IWOG. It is as if you had the day after's newspaper delivered 2 days in advance.

    Or as if he reads the polls and doesn't play mind-games with himself. As George Orwell said "To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle".

  22. iwog


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    44   10:32am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda BS from Rasmussen.

    Scientific sampling has gotten so accurate now that unless there's an intentional bias, there isn't going to be any surprises.

  23. thomaswong.1986


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    45   10:44am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    I'm counting the 2 independents as Democrats.

    No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    LOL! Have fun with that one.

  24. curious2


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    46   10:47am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda

    Sincere congratulations on a very accurate prediction. Also your modesty becomes you.

    I expected President Obama to be re-elected, but I thought the Democrats would lose the Senate. Specific policies remain unpopular (e.g. ObamaCare), but the Republicans' voter suppression efforts seem to have backfired, producing long lines of determined voters at the polls. Even Ohio, where Republicans control the voting machines with no paper trail, is reporting Democratic President Obama and Democratic Senator Brown.

  25. iwog


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    47   10:49am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    LOL! Have fun with that one.

    Why? I'm not a socialist, in fact I really like Angus King from Maine and I would expect that we both have many views in common.

  26. Bellingham Bill


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    48   10:57am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    "The Senate’s recent overuse of the filibuster has stalled progress on practically every issue of importance in America" -- Angus King

    Unless he's stuck in 2005 he's not a right wing nutjob, LOL

    heh, he even correctly specified what he was saying with the key word recent

    The other independent is Bernie Sanders of course. Um, yeah. I think Republicans in general are just "taking the piss" now as the Brits say.

    Somebody tell me when they have something interesting to say 'cuz they are all going back on ignore now.

  27. michaelsch


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    49   11:01am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Congratulations!

    It played much better than I could hope. I thought Romney would take Florida and probably Virginia. Was not sure about Nevada, Colorado, and even Iowa. He failed miserably in all of them. Especially amazing were the Florida results.

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election. That's a very important change, crooks like Adelson have lost.

    I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

  28. iwog


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    50   11:02am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

    Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

    Life is good!

  29. thomaswong.1986


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    51   11:06am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

    one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election. That is not a stimulus to the economy.

  30. iwog


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    52   11:09am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election.

    That's not true since money invested in any industry does expand into other industries. (example: political ads need graphic artists who need systems techs who need hardware etc.)

    Anyway I didn't say it would be a huge effect, but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing.

  31. Bellingham Bill


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    53   11:21am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing

    too bad it doesn't stay in the paycheck economy that long . . .

  32. bdrasin


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    54   1:08pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
  33. dublin hillz


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    55   1:14pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

  34. edvard2


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    56   1:29pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

    But what's key here is that an awful lot of those on the right hold those beliefs very dear and probably will continue to believe in them. What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers. Anyway- good for Democrats anyway you slice it.

  35. Bellingham Bill


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    57   1:36pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    edvard2 says

    What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers

    plus the boomers are in fact dying off now. Not that they are bad people, but the America they want and the America we're going to have in 2050 are two different things.

    21st century is going to belong to the Millennials, and they're aged 10-30+ right now. I consider myself an honorary Gen Y-er, LOL

  36. Vicente


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    58   1:38pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

    Or they gave Teabaggers their shot, and found out instead of JOBS JOBS JOBS they wanted to trot out their craziness about God & abortions and such. The monomoniacal obsession with unseating Obama was cute at first but got old after people saw that there weren't gulags and Stasi on every corner after all. Time for a rotation, maybe they'll come back into fashion again like bellbottoms in a few years. The public is fickle.

  37. thunderlips11


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    59   2:05pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Good thing FedEx just delivered our survival rations, Martha.

    After I dig another 6 foot deep cache behind the shed, water the horse and plug up the leaky barn roof with some tar paper, let's go cash my Social Security Disability check so we can buy more ammo to defend ourselves from the Moocher Hordes who are going to show up presently.

  38. errc


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    60   7:37am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

    "To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle"

    And the top three Obama "Super PACs" dumped in another $58 million. All that totals more than $874.6 million dollars spent — before the election.

    On the Romney side, the campaign had spent $360.4 million in that same time frame, which was joined by $284.2 million by the Republican National Committee and $200.1 million from the top three Romney Super Pacs. All told, that’s more than $844.6 million.

    The Obama team held the lead by about $30 million as of October.

  39. errc


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    61   7:44am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

    Obama 60,664,653
    Romney 57,823,552

    not sure that is a thorough rejection, Obama received 50% of the popular vote while romney got 48%

    With 97 percent of precincts reporting, The Associated Press' figures showed more than 118 million people had voted in the White House race, but that number will go up as more votes are counted. In 2008, 131 million people cast ballots for president, according to the Federal Election Commission.

    They attribute the lower turnout to hurricane Sandy aftermath, but i think it has more to do with general dissatisfaction with government.

  40. rdm


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    62   8:47am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

    I think that money is most effective against a non incumbent. How do you re-define a person that has been likely the most highlighted person in the world for the past four years? On the other hand Obama's money did allow them to define Romney as an arrogant plutocrat which was pretty easy, given that is what he is. I think Obama could have been beaten by a better candidate but given the republican primary field Romney probably was their best bet.

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