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My predictions for tomorrow's election


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 7:54am PST   7,078 views   83 comments
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Obama will win the popular vote by 1%. Florida is too close to call although I think Romney will squeak out a win here. The rest of the map will look like this:

Senate results: Democrats retain the Senate with 53 votes. (including 2 independents)
House results: No big change here. Democrats will probably pick up a handful of seats.

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iwog   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 2:32am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 44

All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda BS from Rasmussen.

Scientific sampling has gotten so accurate now that unless there's an intentional bias, there isn't going to be any surprises.

thomaswong.1986   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 2:44am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

iwog says

I'm counting the 2 independents as Democrats.

No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

LOL! Have fun with that one.

curious2   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 2:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

iwog says

All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda

Sincere congratulations on a very accurate prediction. Also your modesty becomes you.

I expected President Obama to be re-elected, but I thought the Democrats would lose the Senate. Specific policies remain unpopular (e.g. ObamaCare), but the Republicans' voter suppression efforts seem to have backfired, producing long lines of determined voters at the polls. Even Ohio, where Republicans control the voting machines with no paper trail, is reporting Democratic President Obama and Democratic Senator Brown.

iwog   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 2:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 47

thomaswong.1986 says

No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

LOL! Have fun with that one.

Why? I'm not a socialist, in fact I really like Angus King from Maine and I would expect that we both have many views in common.

Bellingham Bill   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 2:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 48

thomaswong.1986 says

you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

"The Senate’s recent overuse of the filibuster has stalled progress on practically every issue of importance in America" -- Angus King

Unless he's stuck in 2005 he's not a right wing nutjob, LOL

heh, he even correctly specified what he was saying with the key word recent

The other independent is Bernie Sanders of course. Um, yeah. I think Republicans in general are just "taking the piss" now as the Brits say.

Somebody tell me when they have something interesting to say 'cuz they are all going back on ignore now.

michaelsch   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 3:01am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

Congratulations!

It played much better than I could hope. I thought Romney would take Florida and probably Virginia. Was not sure about Nevada, Colorado, and even Iowa. He failed miserably in all of them. Especially amazing were the Florida results.

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election. That's a very important change, crooks like Adelson have lost.

I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

iwog   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 3:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 50

michaelsch says

I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

Life is good!

thomaswong.1986   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 3:06am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 51

iwog says

Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election. That is not a stimulus to the economy.

iwog   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 3:09am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 52

thomaswong.1986 says

one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election.

That's not true since money invested in any industry does expand into other industries. (example: political ads need graphic artists who need systems techs who need hardware etc.)

Anyway I didn't say it would be a huge effect, but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing.

Bellingham Bill   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 3:21am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 53

iwog says

but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing

too bad it doesn't stay in the paycheck economy that long . . .

bdrasin   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 5:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

iwog, you called Montana correctly I'm happy to say:
http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2012-11-07/us-sen-jon-tester-wins-re-election-over-rehberg#.UJrM_8V6v-0

dublin hillz   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 5:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 55

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

edvard2   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 5:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 56

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

But what's key here is that an awful lot of those on the right hold those beliefs very dear and probably will continue to believe in them. What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers. Anyway- good for Democrats anyway you slice it.

Bellingham Bill   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 5:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 57

edvard2 says

What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers

plus the boomers are in fact dying off now. Not that they are bad people, but the America they want and the America we're going to have in 2050 are two different things.

21st century is going to belong to the Millennials, and they're aged 10-30+ right now. I consider myself an honorary Gen Y-er, LOL

Vicente   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 5:38am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 58

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

Or they gave Teabaggers their shot, and found out instead of JOBS JOBS JOBS they wanted to trot out their craziness about God & abortions and such. The monomoniacal obsession with unseating Obama was cute at first but got old after people saw that there weren't gulags and Stasi on every corner after all. Time for a rotation, maybe they'll come back into fashion again like bellbottoms in a few years. The public is fickle.

thunderlips11   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 6:05am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 59

Good thing FedEx just delivered our survival rations, Martha.

After I dig another 6 foot deep cache behind the shed, water the horse and plug up the leaky barn roof with some tar paper, let's go cash my Social Security Disability check so we can buy more ammo to defend ourselves from the Moocher Hordes who are going to show up presently.

errc   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 11:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 60

michaelsch says

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

"To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle"

And the top three Obama "Super PACs" dumped in another $58 million. All that totals more than $874.6 million dollars spent — before the election.

On the Romney side, the campaign had spent $360.4 million in that same time frame, which was joined by $284.2 million by the Republican National Committee and $200.1 million from the top three Romney Super Pacs. All told, that’s more than $844.6 million.

The Obama team held the lead by about $30 million as of October.

errc   Wed, 7 Nov 2012, 11:44pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 61

dublin hillz says

What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

Obama 60,664,653
Romney 57,823,552

not sure that is a thorough rejection, Obama received 50% of the popular vote while romney got 48%

With 97 percent of precincts reporting, The Associated Press' figures showed more than 118 million people had voted in the White House race, but that number will go up as more votes are counted. In 2008, 131 million people cast ballots for president, according to the Federal Election Commission.

They attribute the lower turnout to hurricane Sandy aftermath, but i think it has more to do with general dissatisfaction with government.

rdm   Thu, 8 Nov 2012, 12:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 62

michaelsch says

The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

I think that money is most effective against a non incumbent. How do you re-define a person that has been likely the most highlighted person in the world for the past four years? On the other hand Obama's money did allow them to define Romney as an arrogant plutocrat which was pretty easy, given that is what he is. I think Obama could have been beaten by a better candidate but given the republican primary field Romney probably was their best bet.

iwog   Thu, 1 May 2014, 3:06am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 63

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm... Who was wrong here???

Are you insane?

sbh   Thu, 1 May 2014, 4:42am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 64

iwog says

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm... Who was wrong here???

Are you insane?

Call it crazy, not insane.

iwog   Thu, 1 May 2014, 5:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 65

What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

WTF??

Call it Crazy   Thu, 1 May 2014, 5:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 66

iwog says

What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

WTF??

Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

iwog   Thu, 1 May 2014, 6:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 67

Call it Crazy says

Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

DAMN good job predicting the election results no?

At the same time you were posting unskewedpolls.com and calling the election for Romney.

iwog   Thu, 1 May 2014, 6:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 68

Ahh yes.......here we go:

Call it Crazy says

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

That was some INSANE stuff back then. LOL

ChapulinColorado   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 4:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 69

Update?

iwog   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 4:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 70

I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

They will also gain seats in the house.

A Supreme Court vacancy under these conditions will force a constitutional crisis with the president asserting his constitutional right to fill the seat and the Senate asserting the recent Republican policy of scorched earth and killing anything Obama wants.

This is actually for the best although the nation isn't going to know it until 2020. Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020. A Clinton win in 2016 will possibly muddy the waters and obscure the true cause of the nation's financial collapse as well as obscure the path back out.

ChapulinColorado   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 4:18pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 71

Dude, you scare me with your predictions, mostly because they are more spot-on than not. We're screwed!

Waitup   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 5:35pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

Who cares! The goons at Electoral College decide who wins anyway! This is all a sham!

Bellingham Bill   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 8:44pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (3)     Comment 73

Iwog says

Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020.

Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

I'm still kinda shell-shocked here, TBH. Trillion (!) dollar wars.

TRILLIONS! The public wealth we could have made with that investment, pissed away in the mideast.

Then all the anti-gay bullshit Rove ginned up, then the mortgage deregulation bullshit that pumped up a multi-trillion housing bubble, enough to take out the global credit system like 1929.

The Bush credit bubble. Actually worse than that since PI went to the 1% and new household debt went to the 99%.

And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

Romney '16!

CL   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 10:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 74

That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

zzyzzx   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 10:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 75

iwog says

I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

Since there is the potential for multiple runoffs, we may not know for some time.

Call it Crazy   Mon, 3 Nov 2014, 11:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 76

CL says

That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

Exactly, because the economy/wages/business growth has been so awesome over the last 6 years. (We won't include the additional 2 years of Bush's term where the Dems controlled Congress)....

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 12:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 77

Bumper crop of yams this fall.

We end up with a GOP Senate and they declare 17 wars, enact a tax repeal, eliminate all financial regulation, establish rape as a secular sacrament and suspend the 13th and 14th Amendments, I'm ready.

iwog   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 12:34am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (3)     Comment 78

Bellingham Bill says

Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

Correct. American citizens are rather stupid and complacent. They will need to be punished before they vote for their own good.

We have such a strong and pervasive right-wing propaganda machine in place now that any perceived control by the Democrats is going to be jumped on exactly like the CRA was blamed for the housing bubble and collapse. Just like 70% of Americans believed Iraq was involved in 9/11 back in 2003 when we went to war for no reason.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-09-06-poll-iraq_x.htm

I'll say it once again: This isn't a battle over spending or ideologies or the direction of the country. This is a battle between knowledge and ignorance. Truth and lies. Reality versus fantasy. Republicans are the thugs Orwell wrote about. They have created a ministry of truth and far too many citizens are sucking it up.

Perhaps it's time China took over the reigns of world dominance. This country can't persist much longer this way.

mell   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 12:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 79

Bellingham Bill says

And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

Romney '16!

Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

iwog   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 12:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (2)     Comment 80

mell says

Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

zzyzzx   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 1:38am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 81

iwog says

The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

sbh   Tue, 4 Nov 2014, 5:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 82

Bellingham Bill says

You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

iwog says

Correct. American citizens are rather stupid and complacent. They will need to be punished before they vote for their own good.

Yes and yes. And we have no one to blame but our (collective) selves. If the citizenry can't sort out who is largely to blame for the origins of the crash, and the warring mess, and the wealth gap.....if they return congressional power to the GOP, and then elect a wingnut (I really think the GOP is too scared of its extreme right wing to stand up to Ted Cruz) then the country will get what it deserves: a pushed reset button that will make W. look like Nixon.

To get to Iwog's 2016 meltdown we need to have a conservative lunacy driving the bus off the cliff again. Jesus! Will it really take TWO fist-fuck shitshows to to protract the voters' memory beyond and eight year horizon?

marcus   Wed, 5 Nov 2014, 1:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 83

Bellingham Bill says

You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

How will it be ? At least a third of the country are idiots that loves them their talk radio and Fox news. Another 20%, at least, are not THAT stupid, but they are either in the 'fuck you I've got mine' club, or they're in the south or otherwise are programmed to HATE the damn libruls with a passion, although try to get them to explain why and you get some foggy nonsense covering up their real reasons, which is just HATE,... of themselves probably first and foremost.

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