My predictions for tomorrow's election


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 5 Nov 2012, 3:54pm   6,173 views   83 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (3)  

Obama will win the popular vote by 1%. Florida is too close to call although I think Romney will squeak out a win here. The rest of the map will look like this:

Senate results: Democrats retain the Senate with 53 votes. (including 2 independents)
House results: No big change here. Democrats will probably pick up a handful of seats.

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 44-83 of 83     Last »     See most liked comments

  1. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    44   10:32am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)  

    All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda BS from Rasmussen.

    Scientific sampling has gotten so accurate now that unless there's an intentional bias, there isn't going to be any surprises.

  2. thomaswong.1986


    Follow
    Befriend
    27 threads
    6,131 comments

    45   10:44am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    I'm counting the 2 independents as Democrats.

    No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    LOL! Have fun with that one.

  3. curious2


    Follow
    Befriend (4)
    117 threads
    4,465 comments

    46   10:47am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    All I did was listen to the polls and reject the propaganda

    Sincere congratulations on a very accurate prediction. Also your modesty becomes you.

    I expected President Obama to be re-elected, but I thought the Democrats would lose the Senate. Specific policies remain unpopular (e.g. ObamaCare), but the Republicans' voter suppression efforts seem to have backfired, producing long lines of determined voters at the polls. Even Ohio, where Republicans control the voting machines with no paper trail, is reporting Democratic President Obama and Democratic Senator Brown.

  4. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    47   10:49am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    No problem.. you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    LOL! Have fun with that one.

    Why? I'm not a socialist, in fact I really like Angus King from Maine and I would expect that we both have many views in common.

  5. Bellingham Bill


    Follow
    Befriend
    79 threads
    3,285 comments
    Bellingham, WA

    48   10:57am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    you will be calling them Right wing nut jobs in 2013.

    "The Senate’s recent overuse of the filibuster has stalled progress on practically every issue of importance in America" -- Angus King

    Unless he's stuck in 2005 he's not a right wing nutjob, LOL

    heh, he even correctly specified what he was saying with the key word recent

    The other independent is Bernie Sanders of course. Um, yeah. I think Republicans in general are just "taking the piss" now as the Brits say.

    Somebody tell me when they have something interesting to say 'cuz they are all going back on ignore now.

  6. michaelsch


    Follow
    Befriend
    21 threads
    586 comments
    South Pasadena, CA

    49   11:01am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Congratulations!

    It played much better than I could hope. I thought Romney would take Florida and probably Virginia. Was not sure about Nevada, Colorado, and even Iowa. He failed miserably in all of them. Especially amazing were the Florida results.

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election. That's a very important change, crooks like Adelson have lost.

    I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

  7. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    50   11:02am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    michaelsch says

    I could not help laughing at billioners spending tens of millions of $USD to get absolutely nothing. Even in Florida.

    Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

    Life is good!

  8. thomaswong.1986


    Follow
    Befriend
    27 threads
    6,131 comments

    51   11:06am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Actually they did get something. They provided needed stimulus to the economy which should translate into better economic numbers that Obama will get credit for.

    one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election. That is not a stimulus to the economy.

  9. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    52   11:09am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    one very narrow industry... Broadcasting ! no other industry will benefit from the billions spent on the election.

    That's not true since money invested in any industry does expand into other industries. (example: political ads need graphic artists who need systems techs who need hardware etc.)

    Anyway I didn't say it would be a huge effect, but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing.

  10. Bellingham Bill


    Follow
    Befriend
    79 threads
    3,285 comments
    Bellingham, WA

    53   11:21am Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    but taking money from a blowhard billionaire and spreading it to the working classes is always a good thing

    too bad it doesn't stay in the paycheck economy that long . . .

  11. bdrasin


    Follow
    Befriend
    7 threads
    561 comments
    Alameda, CA

    54   1:08pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
  12. dublin hillz


    Follow
    Befriend
    54 threads
    1,922 comments
    Dublin, CA

    55   1:14pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

  13. edvard2


    Follow
    Befriend
    53 threads
    3,807 comments

    56   1:29pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

    But what's key here is that an awful lot of those on the right hold those beliefs very dear and probably will continue to believe in them. What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers. Anyway- good for Democrats anyway you slice it.

  14. Bellingham Bill


    Follow
    Befriend
    79 threads
    3,285 comments
    Bellingham, WA

    57   1:36pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    edvard2 says

    What's changed is that the minority vote has grown to such a level that it overcomes their numbers

    plus the boomers are in fact dying off now. Not that they are bad people, but the America they want and the America we're going to have in 2050 are two different things.

    21st century is going to belong to the Millennials, and they're aged 10-30+ right now. I consider myself an honorary Gen Y-er, LOL

  15. Vicente


    Follow
    Befriend (8)
    269 threads
    6,027 comments
    Davis, CA

    58   1:38pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs.

    Or they gave Teabaggers their shot, and found out instead of JOBS JOBS JOBS they wanted to trot out their craziness about God & abortions and such. The monomoniacal obsession with unseating Obama was cute at first but got old after people saw that there weren't gulags and Stasi on every corner after all. Time for a rotation, maybe they'll come back into fashion again like bellbottoms in a few years. The public is fickle.

  16. thunderlips11


    Follow
    Befriend (13)
    264 threads
    5,199 comments

    59   2:05pm Wed 7 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Good thing FedEx just delivered our survival rations, Martha.

    After I dig another 6 foot deep cache behind the shed, water the horse and plug up the leaky barn roof with some tar paper, let's go cash my Social Security Disability check so we can buy more ammo to defend ourselves from the Moocher Hordes who are going to show up presently.

  17. errc


    Follow
    Befriend (5)
    50 threads
    2,532 comments
    32 male

    60   7:37am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

    "To see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle"

    And the top three Obama "Super PACs" dumped in another $58 million. All that totals more than $874.6 million dollars spent — before the election.

    On the Romney side, the campaign had spent $360.4 million in that same time frame, which was joined by $284.2 million by the Republican National Committee and $200.1 million from the top three Romney Super Pacs. All told, that’s more than $844.6 million.

    The Obama team held the lead by about $30 million as of October.

  18. errc


    Follow
    Befriend (5)
    50 threads
    2,532 comments
    32 male

    61   7:44am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    What yesterday's election demonstrated was a thorough rejection of hardline right's beliefs. This was great for America, even better than when Barack was originally elected. Original election was based on what Barack may do, this time it was based on what he did and may/will continue to do vs what the repubs may do. This illustrates that Americans clearly rejected GOPs scare tactics and blatant as well as tacit race/ethnicity issues (i.e. birth certificate, kenya, muslim, etc). What a truly glorious day for our nation to send the proponents of these regressive approaches into an ideologically irrelevant coffin.

    Obama 60,664,653
    Romney 57,823,552

    not sure that is a thorough rejection, Obama received 50% of the popular vote while romney got 48%

    With 97 percent of precincts reporting, The Associated Press' figures showed more than 118 million people had voted in the White House race, but that number will go up as more votes are counted. In 2008, 131 million people cast ballots for president, according to the Federal Election Commission.

    They attribute the lower turnout to hurricane Sandy aftermath, but i think it has more to do with general dissatisfaction with government.

  19. rdm


    Follow
    Befriend
    4 threads
    294 comments

    62   8:47am Thu 8 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    The most important outcome is that now it looks like money can't buy you even an election.

    I think that money is most effective against a non incumbent. How do you re-define a person that has been likely the most highlighted person in the world for the past four years? On the other hand Obama's money did allow them to define Romney as an arrogant plutocrat which was pretty easy, given that is what he is. I think Obama could have been beaten by a better candidate but given the republican primary field Romney probably was their best bet.

  20. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    63   10:06am Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)  

    Call it Crazy says

    Hmmm... Who was wrong here???

    Are you insane?

  21. sbh


    Follow
    Befriend
    34 threads
    3,449 comments

    64   11:42am Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Call it Crazy says

    Hmmm... Who was wrong here???

    Are you insane?

    Call it crazy, not insane.

  22. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    65   12:23pm Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

    WTF??

  23. Call it Crazy


    Follow
    Befriend
    929 threads
    11,832 comments

    66   12:44pm Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    iwog says

    What cracks me up is that I called the election perfectly, yet screwball over here bumps the thread as an example of getting it wrong.

    WTF??

    Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

  24. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    67   1:23pm Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)  

    Call it Crazy says

    Nice try asshole.... You bumped your own thread using a comment I didn't even make... Liar!!!

    DAMN good job predicting the election results no?

    At the same time you were posting unskewedpolls.com and calling the election for Romney.

  25. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    68   1:30pm Thu 1 May 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Ahh yes.......here we go:

    Call it Crazy says

    http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

    That was some INSANE stuff back then. LOL

  26. ChapulinColorado


    Follow
    Befriend
    69 threads
    291 comments
    male
    Sacramento, CA

    69   12:01am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Update?

  27. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    70   12:13am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

    They will also gain seats in the house.

    A Supreme Court vacancy under these conditions will force a constitutional crisis with the president asserting his constitutional right to fill the seat and the Senate asserting the recent Republican policy of scorched earth and killing anything Obama wants.

    This is actually for the best although the nation isn't going to know it until 2020. Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020. A Clinton win in 2016 will possibly muddy the waters and obscure the true cause of the nation's financial collapse as well as obscure the path back out.

  28. ChapulinColorado


    Follow
    Befriend
    69 threads
    291 comments
    male
    Sacramento, CA

    71   12:18am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Dude, you scare me with your predictions, mostly because they are more spot-on than not. We're screwed!

  29. Waitup


    Follow
    Befriend
    2 threads
    30 comments
    male
    Tustin, CA

    72   1:35am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Who cares! The goons at Electoral College decide who wins anyway! This is all a sham!

  30. Bellingham Bill


    Follow
    Befriend
    79 threads
    3,285 comments
    Bellingham, WA

    73   4:44am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (3)  

    Iwog says

    Republicans need to win the White House in 2016 in order for the nation to be saved by 2020.

    Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

    You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

    I'm still kinda shell-shocked here, TBH. Trillion (!) dollar wars.

    TRILLIONS! The public wealth we could have made with that investment, pissed away in the mideast.

    Then all the anti-gay bullshit Rove ginned up, then the mortgage deregulation bullshit that pumped up a multi-trillion housing bubble, enough to take out the global credit system like 1929.

    The Bush credit bubble. Actually worse than that since PI went to the 1% and new household debt went to the 99%.

    And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

    Romney '16!

  31. CL


    Follow
    Befriend (12)
    187 threads
    1,924 comments
    Emeryville, CA

    74   6:03am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)  

    That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

  32. zzyzzx


    Follow
    Befriend (10)
    862 threads
    7,323 comments
    Baltimore, MD

    75   6:56am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    I don't see any way the Republicans don't take the Senate. I'm guessing they will have 51 or 52 seats.

    Since there is the potential for multiple runoffs, we may not know for some time.

  33. Call it Crazy


    Follow
    Befriend
    929 threads
    11,832 comments

    76   7:32am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    CL says

    That's how I feel. Let the GOP burn the place down. The voters need to be reminded, apparently, just how terrible the jackass gop is.

    Exactly, because the economy/wages/business growth has been so awesome over the last 6 years. (We won't include the additional 2 years of Bush's term where the Dems controlled Congress)....

  34. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


    Follow
    Befriend (27)
    431 threads
    12,686 comments

    77   8:13am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Bumper crop of yams this fall.

    We end up with a GOP Senate and they declare 17 wars, enact a tax repeal, eliminate all financial regulation, establish rape as a secular sacrament and suspend the 13th and 14th Amendments, I'm ready.

  35. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    78   8:34am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (3)  

    Bellingham Bill says

    Can't have an FDR without a Hoover first?

    Correct. American citizens are rather stupid and complacent. They will need to be punished before they vote for their own good.

    We have such a strong and pervasive right-wing propaganda machine in place now that any perceived control by the Democrats is going to be jumped on exactly like the CRA was blamed for the housing bubble and collapse. Just like 70% of Americans believed Iraq was involved in 9/11 back in 2003 when we went to war for no reason.

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-09-06-poll-iraq_x.htm

    I'll say it once again: This isn't a battle over spending or ideologies or the direction of the country. This is a battle between knowledge and ignorance. Truth and lies. Reality versus fantasy. Republicans are the thugs Orwell wrote about. They have created a ministry of truth and far too many citizens are sucking it up.

    Perhaps it's time China took over the reigns of world dominance. This country can't persist much longer this way.

  36. mell


    Follow
    Befriend (8)
    297 threads
    3,795 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    79   8:49am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Bellingham Bill says

    And yet Republicanism is back after its drubbings of 2006 & 2008, and we can't even blame gerrymandering.

    Romney '16!

    Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

  37. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (46)
    392 threads
    20,774 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    80   8:54am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (2)  

    mell says

    Because they had a superior tax plan with a levy on the 1% and end of special interest deductions instead of parading on hope and change while raping the wage-slaves. Everybody with a functioning pair of eyes can walk around and immediately notice the widened wealth-gap and reflated bubble. If the Libertarian wing takes command I am all for it. Bring it on.

    The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

    You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

  38. zzyzzx


    Follow
    Befriend (10)
    862 threads
    7,323 comments
    Baltimore, MD

    81   9:38am Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    The widened wealth gap was created by Republicans by the 1920s and it is again being created by Republican policies in the 2010s.

    You voted for it so I hope you enjoy it.

  39. sbh


    Follow
    Befriend
    34 threads
    3,449 comments

    82   1:52pm Tue 4 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Bellingham Bill says

    You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

    iwog says

    Correct. American citizens are rather stupid and complacent. They will need to be punished before they vote for their own good.

    Yes and yes. And we have no one to blame but our (collective) selves. If the citizenry can't sort out who is largely to blame for the origins of the crash, and the warring mess, and the wealth gap.....if they return congressional power to the GOP, and then elect a wingnut (I really think the GOP is too scared of its extreme right wing to stand up to Ted Cruz) then the country will get what it deserves: a pushed reset button that will make W. look like Nixon.

    To get to Iwog's 2016 meltdown we need to have a conservative lunacy driving the bus off the cliff again. Jesus! Will it really take TWO fist-fuck shitshows to to protract the voters' memory beyond and eight year horizon?

  40. marcus


    Follow
    Befriend (5)
    207 threads
    7,651 comments

    83   9:45pm Wed 5 Nov 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Bellingham Bill says

    You'd think Bush would have served, but what really happened 2001-2006 has yet to be widely disseminated into the national consciousness, alas.

    How will it be ? At least a third of the country are idiots that loves them their talk radio and Fox news. Another 20%, at least, are not THAT stupid, but they are either in the 'fuck you I've got mine' club, or they're in the south or otherwise are programmed to HATE the damn libruls with a passion, although try to get them to explain why and you get some foggy nonsense covering up their real reasons, which is just HATE,... of themselves probably first and foremost.

« First     « Previous comments    

Premium member iwog is moderator of this thread.

Email

Username

Watch comments by email
Home   Tips and Tricks   Questions or suggestions? Mail p@patrick.net   Thank you for your kind donations

Page took 252 milliseconds to create.