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Yun's prediction


By lurking   Follow   Fri, 16 Nov 2012, 8:01am PST   5,234 views   36 comments   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

I kept this November 2011 article on the NAR conference that took place in Anaheim last year. I wanted to see how far off the NAR lapdog would be when he gave his predictions for this year. Here is the article

http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2011/11/14/housing-market-on-the-rise-in-2012-expert-says/

Comments 1-36 of 36     Last »

iwog   befriend   ignore   Fri, 16 Nov 2012, 8:04am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

Dead on accurate with the housing market. Not so much with mortgage rates although he couldn't have imagined QE3.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Fri, 16 Nov 2012, 4:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 2

E-man says

Dude, I didn't see QE3 and I predicted interest rate would drop to 3.25% in 2012. Go and check out the 2012 prediction. Can I toot my own horns a little bit? :)

Win!

Can't wait til next year and 2.5%

Oxygen   befriend   ignore   Fri, 16 Nov 2012, 5:17pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 3

who gives a fuck what Yun says?

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Sat, 17 Nov 2012, 5:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

Mortgage rates will remain low as long as the rate of purchasing remains low and the economy remains sluggish.

If / when the economy improves, rates will rise. There's no real reason to believe that they'll move in different directions over the long term.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   befriend   ignore   Sat, 17 Nov 2012, 10:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 5

Listening to the NAR's recommendations on RE is like asking Jeffrey Dahmer for tips on table manners.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sat, 17 Nov 2012, 10:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

Darrell In Phoenix says

And "rate of purchasing" will remain low as long as resale prices remain grossly inflated and distorted.

Remember.... Housing demand is at 16 year lows for a reason..... that reason is grossly inflated prices.

What's the median household income in Phoenix? What's the median house price?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sat, 17 Nov 2012, 10:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

Darrell In Phoenix says

Household income has nothing to do with it. Wage earner income is under $24k.

Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 1:25am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

Bigsby says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Household income has nothing to do with it. Wage earner income is under $24k.

Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

Median Income
Phoenix:$47,085
Arizona:$48,745
Estimated per capita income in 2009: $22,209

Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Phoenix-Arizona.html#ixzz2Cb06yrUE

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 1:43am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 9

I suspect Darrell doesn't understand what per capita means.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 3:15am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

Darrell In Phoenix says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Wage earner income is under $24k.

So you really don't know what per capita means.

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 5:50am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

Wage earner income is under $24K everywhere.

Low wage earner income.

Mininum wage+ $2/hour * 50 weeks/year * 40 hours/week=
($7.80 + $2) * 50 * 40 = $19,600.

These low wage earners in Phoenix don't buy homes, they rent for double the PITI from some investor.

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 5:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Bigsby says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Wage earner income is under $24k.

So you really don't know what per capita means.

Darrell is not stupid, but I think he may have had a tramautic experience with a realtor at sometime in his life.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 9:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

Darrell In Phoenix says

Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

So you really don't know what wage earner income means.

Here's a hint..... it means housing prices falling to much lower levels. ;)

I know what wage earner income means, but as you quoted the per capita figure...

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 9:56am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

I know what wage earner income means

No you don't.

Says the person who quoted the per capita figure.

jvolstad   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 10:03am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

Realtors should get a job. A real job that is.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 10:11am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

Says the person who quoted the per capita figure.

And prices are rolling back.... enjoy.

But apparently not in Phoenix, though of course that doesn't matter to you seeing as you don't live there.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 11:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

Could you please elaborate what exactly you mean by "wage earner income"?

If you're talking about the average income of a working person in a household, you're clearly wrong.

If you're talking about the (antiquated) average income of hourly workers, you're also wrong. It's within 10% of the average according to the BLS. Hourly workers (outside of skilled trades) are also overwhelmingly not home buyers.

Instead of telling people that they're wrong, why don't you tell us WTF you mean?

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:18pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 18

"I" "like" "to" "use" "quotes" "too", "but" "I" "understand" "when" "they" "are" "appropriate".

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:24pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

Darrell In Phoenix says

The Professor says

Estimated per capita income in 2009: $22,209

You're too funny Bi.... err... "Kevin".

Try again, Dullell.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:29pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

Darrell In Phoenix says

You go girl!

Have you checked the meaning of per capita yet?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:42pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

I take that as a no.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

I question his mental state.

BoomAndBustCycle   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 23

http://www.deadline.com/2012/11/showbiz-generated-47b-for-la-county-economy-in-2011-but-film-tv-jobs-on-the-decline-report/

****

While on the decline... The average annual wage in the entertainment industry was $117,000 in 2011, more than twice the average of $53,000 for all private-sector industries.

A big reason why prime LA neighborhoods have high property values.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 12:53pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

Kevin says

I question his mental state.

He's easily amused. Apparently, trolling a RE forum under multiple names and continuously deleting his own posts is extremely entertaining to him. I guess his long period of unemployment in the construction industry has affected him somewhat.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 18 Nov 2012, 1:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

Darrell In Phoenix says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Wage earner income is under $24k.

So you keep saying (wrongly). That wasn't the question though, was it?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:31pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

LiarWatch says

Wage earner income is under $24k? wow.

Wow, it's not, but I'm happy you're still having fun posting responses to yourself.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

LiarWatch says

Sure it is. You just don't like reality.

You just make up your own reality.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

LiarWatch says

No my friend. That would be you and your housing pimp friends.

You're the one who works in construction.

And post up your link to the 24k figure. And don't forget to blank out the words per capita.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:44pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

LiarWatch says

That's right. Because there is profit building all sorts of things. But they all depreciate.

You're a new house pimp, working hand-in-hand with realtors.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

LiarWatch says

We're constructors. You pimp lies.

You currently pimp lies, and you used to pimp new construction till the bottom fell out of your market. As for myself, I'm working in Kuwait in a job that has nothing to do with real estate.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:52pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

LiarWatch says

Bigsby says

You currently pimp lies,

We construct. You pimp the lies.

This is you. http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/ You and it are synonymous.

That's you - years of peddling over-priced new construction. I guess you feel guilty. Hence all the different names you post under.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 9:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 32

LiarWatch says

How can that be when new construction is a fraction of the cost of resale housing?

You can't even keep your lies straight. Typical used house pimp.... and can't even be truthful about that.

Contact Deepak Chopra. I'm sure he can give you some bullshit spiritual guidance to make up for all those years you gorged yourself at the trough of the housing bubble. You new construction pimps just fleeced all those poor misguided individuals who were led down the path of debt by nice new marble counter tops installed by pimping contractors like yourself.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 19 Nov 2012, 10:34pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 33

LiarWatch says

How can that be when new construction is a fraction of the cost of resale housing?

Why should I believe you? You're a builder - a profession ranked right up there with realtors for untrustworthiness. All of you involved in the real estate business are neck deep in it, all of you, and that's why you keep flapping around this forum spouting your nonsense - you're covering for the shame and guilt you feel for the part you played in bilking so many people during the housing bubble. Shame on you, you new construction pimp.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Tue, 20 Nov 2012, 8:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 34

Please point me at the builders building houses that aren't total pieces of shit building new construction at "a fraction of the cost of resale housing". I'll even allow for owner/builders acting as GC. Well, I suppose 99/100 is a fraction.

Houses depreciate, but the price of lumber, concrete, rebar, ceramic tiles, and carpets keeps increasing. Not to mention labor.

I've yet to see an example of a new home built for under $175/sf around here that compares to my home that is "worth" $175/sf -- and that includes the value of the land!

wave9x   befriend   ignore   Tue, 20 Nov 2012, 8:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

New construction is vastly more expensive than buying an existing home. It costs $400/sqft to build something that isn't a shithole in the SF Bay Area. And you need to buy the land of course. Contractors are one of the slimiest group of people I know, way worse than realtors. They will lie to your face and shake your hand on it.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:03am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

wave9x says

New construction is vastly more expensive than buying an existing home. It costs $400/sqft to build something that isn't a shithole in the SF Bay Area. And you need to buy the land of course. Contractors are one of the slimiest group of people I know, way worse than realtors. They will lie to your face and shake your hand on it.

I considered building there and I think $200/ sf is possible, but you'll still need to pay$350-400k for a 4000 sf lot with a condemned asbestos and lead hazard on it. Total costs easily over $400/sf

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