Yun's prediction


By lurking   Follow   Fri, 16 Nov 2012, 4:01pm   4,251 views   36 comments
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I kept this November 2011 article on the NAR conference that took place in Anaheim last year. I wanted to see how far off the NAR lapdog would be when he gave his predictions for this year. Here is the article

http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2011/11/14/housing-market-on-the-rise-in-2012-expert-says/

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  1. iwog


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    1   4:04pm Fri 16 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Dead on accurate with the housing market. Not so much with mortgage rates although he couldn't have imagined QE3.

  2. iwog


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    2   12:03am Sat 17 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    E-man says

    Dude, I didn't see QE3 and I predicted interest rate would drop to 3.25% in 2012. Go and check out the 2012 prediction. Can I toot my own horns a little bit? :)

    Win!

    Can't wait til next year and 2.5%

  3. Oxygen


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    3   1:17am Sat 17 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    who gives a fuck what Yun says?

  4. Kevin


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    4   1:19am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Mortgage rates will remain low as long as the rate of purchasing remains low and the economy remains sluggish.

    If / when the economy improves, rates will rise. There's no real reason to believe that they'll move in different directions over the long term.

  5. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    5   6:11am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike  

    Listening to the NAR's recommendations on RE is like asking Jeffrey Dahmer for tips on table manners.

  6. Bigsby


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    6   6:13am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    And "rate of purchasing" will remain low as long as resale prices remain grossly inflated and distorted.

    Remember.... Housing demand is at 16 year lows for a reason..... that reason is grossly inflated prices.

    What's the median household income in Phoenix? What's the median house price?

  7. Bigsby


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    7   6:50am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Household income has nothing to do with it. Wage earner income is under $24k.

    Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

  8. The Professor


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    8   9:25am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby says

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Household income has nothing to do with it. Wage earner income is under $24k.

    Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

    Median Income
    Phoenix:$47,085
    Arizona:$48,745
    Estimated per capita income in 2009: $22,209

    Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Phoenix-Arizona.html#ixzz2Cb06yrUE

  9. Bigsby


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    9   9:43am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I suspect Darrell doesn't understand what per capita means.

  10. Bigsby


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    10   11:15am Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Wage earner income is under $24k.

    So you really don't know what per capita means.

  11. The Professor


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    11   1:50pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Wage earner income is under $24K everywhere.

    Low wage earner income.

    Mininum wage+ $2/hour * 50 weeks/year * 40 hours/week=
    ($7.80 + $2) * 50 * 40 = $19,600.

    These low wage earners in Phoenix don't buy homes, they rent for double the PITI from some investor.

  12. The Professor


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    12   1:53pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Bigsby says

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Wage earner income is under $24k.

    So you really don't know what per capita means.

    Darrell is not stupid, but I think he may have had a tramautic experience with a realtor at sometime in his life.

  13. Bigsby


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    13   5:51pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Is that a per capita figure by any chance?

    So you really don't know what wage earner income means.

    Here's a hint..... it means housing prices falling to much lower levels. ;)

    I know what wage earner income means, but as you quoted the per capita figure...

  14. Bigsby


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    14   5:56pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Bigsby says

    I know what wage earner income means

    No you don't.

    Says the person who quoted the per capita figure.

  15. jvolstad


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    15   6:03pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Realtors should get a job. A real job that is.

  16. Bigsby


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    16   6:11pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Bigsby says

    Says the person who quoted the per capita figure.

    And prices are rolling back.... enjoy.

    But apparently not in Phoenix, though of course that doesn't matter to you seeing as you don't live there.

  17. Kevin


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    17   7:55pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Could you please elaborate what exactly you mean by "wage earner income"?

    If you're talking about the average income of a working person in a household, you're clearly wrong.

    If you're talking about the (antiquated) average income of hourly workers, you're also wrong. It's within 10% of the average according to the BLS. Hourly workers (outside of skilled trades) are also overwhelmingly not home buyers.

    Instead of telling people that they're wrong, why don't you tell us WTF you mean?

  18. Kevin


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    18   8:18pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    "I" "like" "to" "use" "quotes" "too", "but" "I" "understand" "when" "they" "are" "appropriate".

  19. Bigsby


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    19   8:24pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    The Professor says

    Estimated per capita income in 2009: $22,209

    You're too funny Bi.... err... "Kevin".

    Try again, Dullell.

  20. Bigsby


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    20   8:29pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    You go girl!

    Have you checked the meaning of per capita yet?

  21. Bigsby


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    21   8:42pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I take that as a no.

  22. Kevin


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    22   8:45pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I question his mental state.

  23. BoomAndBustCycle


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    23   8:51pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    http://www.deadline.com/2012/11/showbiz-generated-47b-for-la-county-economy-in-2011-but-film-tv-jobs-on-the-decline-report/

    ****

    While on the decline... The average annual wage in the entertainment industry was $117,000 in 2011, more than twice the average of $53,000 for all private-sector industries.

    A big reason why prime LA neighborhoods have high property values.

  24. Bigsby


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    24   8:53pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    I question his mental state.

    He's easily amused. Apparently, trolling a RE forum under multiple names and continuously deleting his own posts is extremely entertaining to him. I guess his long period of unemployment in the construction industry has affected him somewhat.

  25. Bigsby


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    25   9:46pm Sun 18 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Wage earner income is under $24k.

    So you keep saying (wrongly). That wasn't the question though, was it?

  26. Bigsby


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    26   5:31am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    Wage earner income is under $24k? wow.

    Wow, it's not, but I'm happy you're still having fun posting responses to yourself.

  27. Bigsby


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    27   5:37am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    Sure it is. You just don't like reality.

    You just make up your own reality.

  28. Bigsby


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    28   5:41am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    No my friend. That would be you and your housing pimp friends.

    You're the one who works in construction.

    And post up your link to the 24k figure. And don't forget to blank out the words per capita.

  29. Bigsby


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    29   5:44am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    That's right. Because there is profit building all sorts of things. But they all depreciate.

    You're a new house pimp, working hand-in-hand with realtors.

  30. Bigsby


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    30   5:49am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    We're constructors. You pimp lies.

    You currently pimp lies, and you used to pimp new construction till the bottom fell out of your market. As for myself, I'm working in Kuwait in a job that has nothing to do with real estate.

  31. Bigsby


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    31   5:52am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    Bigsby says

    You currently pimp lies,

    We construct. You pimp the lies.

    This is you. http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/ You and it are synonymous.

    That's you - years of peddling over-priced new construction. I guess you feel guilty. Hence all the different names you post under.

  32. Bigsby


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    32   5:59am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    How can that be when new construction is a fraction of the cost of resale housing?

    You can't even keep your lies straight. Typical used house pimp.... and can't even be truthful about that.

    Contact Deepak Chopra. I'm sure he can give you some bullshit spiritual guidance to make up for all those years you gorged yourself at the trough of the housing bubble. You new construction pimps just fleeced all those poor misguided individuals who were led down the path of debt by nice new marble counter tops installed by pimping contractors like yourself.

  33. Bigsby


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    33   6:34am Tue 20 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    LiarWatch says

    How can that be when new construction is a fraction of the cost of resale housing?

    Why should I believe you? You're a builder - a profession ranked right up there with realtors for untrustworthiness. All of you involved in the real estate business are neck deep in it, all of you, and that's why you keep flapping around this forum spouting your nonsense - you're covering for the shame and guilt you feel for the part you played in bilking so many people during the housing bubble. Shame on you, you new construction pimp.

  34. Kevin


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    34   4:00am Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Please point me at the builders building houses that aren't total pieces of shit building new construction at "a fraction of the cost of resale housing". I'll even allow for owner/builders acting as GC. Well, I suppose 99/100 is a fraction.

    Houses depreciate, but the price of lumber, concrete, rebar, ceramic tiles, and carpets keeps increasing. Not to mention labor.

    I've yet to see an example of a new home built for under $175/sf around here that compares to my home that is "worth" $175/sf -- and that includes the value of the land!

  35. wave9x


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    35   4:43am Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    New construction is vastly more expensive than buying an existing home. It costs $400/sqft to build something that isn't a shithole in the SF Bay Area. And you need to buy the land of course. Contractors are one of the slimiest group of people I know, way worse than realtors. They will lie to your face and shake your hand on it.

  36. Kevin


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    36   9:03am Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    wave9x says

    New construction is vastly more expensive than buying an existing home. It costs $400/sqft to build something that isn't a shithole in the SF Bay Area. And you need to buy the land of course. Contractors are one of the slimiest group of people I know, way worse than realtors. They will lie to your face and shake your hand on it.

    I considered building there and I think $200/ sf is possible, but you'll still need to pay$350-400k for a 4000 sf lot with a condemned asbestos and lead hazard on it. Total costs easily over $400/sf

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