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House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst

By HousingBoom   Follow   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:17am   7,982 views   99 comments
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Numbers don't lie!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49436858/?fb_action_ids=552912418057720&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A306426616129186%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like%22%7D

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1. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   20   5:04pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   those houses are generally empty for a reason

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   21   5:07pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Bellingham Bill says the only way rents could fall is if the government goes hardball on raising taxes and/or cutting spending on/for the middle class. I can shake the magic 8 ball but not see an answer here. The singularity is the debt limit fight coming early next year, plus of course what new bullshit the system vends about the expiring tax cuts. I don't think rents CAN fall. Housing starts are barely recovering from depression levels and it will be years before we see new supply. Furthermore most of the over-built areas are hours of commute time away from job centers, so even if they do get converted to rentals, they are extremely dependent on cheap gasoline. What the cities need are high rise apartments, however Northern California remains mired in rent control and the burbs want no part of multi-unit housing. Obviously I'm talking my book, but it wouldn't be my book unless I had some pretty good reasons for being here.

3. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   22   5:09pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says iwog says The time to buy was 2008-2009. Only if you ignore the 20-30 million excess empty houses in inventory. You're arguing that 30%+ of all houses are empty. You are either just making shit up, or are you confusing the term "owner occupied" with "occupied" (hint: non-owner occupied means "rental")

4. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

   23   5:10pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Rents are falling. Nope they are not. LOOK AROUND.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   24   5:15pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Sure they are. They're down almost 3% in LA.... and falling. Average L.A. apartment rents rise 5 percent to $1,670 monthly -- among highest in nation http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_21096560/average-l-apartment-rents-rise-5-percent-1 Rents on the Rise Across Southern California http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Rents-on-the-Rise-Across-Southern-California-147394535.html According to a report released this week by the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate, rents are on the rise, and they’ll continue to go up until 2013. Rising rents outpacing home sale prices http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1091-housing/266005-rising-rents-outpacing-home-sales-prices- The top 10 price increases, which ranged from 8.7 to 24.9 percent, included three cities in California — San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco.

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   25   5:20pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Sorry. I've seen your old data. All you did was show rents dropped in 2011, not 2012. You have a nasty habit of posting old articles and claiming they represent current news.

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   26   5:23pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says iwog says I've seen your old data Wrong again. It's 2012 data. It's 1st quarter 2012 data you twit comparing rental rates to 1st quarter 2011.

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   27   5:26pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says iwog says t's 1st quarter 2012 data You're learning to read. This is good! Yes but you still don't know how to read. The drop you reported was YoY from Q1 2011. It has no relevance whatsoever to the rental market in 2012, which is on fire. It's totally worthless.

9. EastCoastBubbleBoy Follow Befriend (11) 104 threads 455 comments Premium

   28   5:29pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says And worse yet(for you anyways), another 35 MILLION housing units have just started to empty as boomers head to the grave. Not necessarily. Most boomers will leave their homes to their children. Their children will then be faced with a decision. 1) try and sell it 2) try and rent it out 3) move into it 4) do nothing, and let it rot into the ground (or revert to the lender) So all things being equal, only a fraction of the 35 million houses will become inventory – and even then it will be a process that plays out over decades. The oldest baby boomers are just now turning 70. The youngest are only 48. The average life expectancy in the US is 78.2 (75.6 yrs for men, 80.8 yrs for women) The inventory will not flood the market all at once, and who knows where house prices and inventory levels will be ten or fifteen years from now.

10. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    29   5:36pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Kevin says ou're arguing that 30%+ of all houses are empty. You are either just making shit up, or are you confusing the term "owner occupied" with "occupied" (hint: non-owner occupied means "rental") Learn math. There are 130million houses in the US... and growing. 20million are empty. And worse yet(for you anyways), another 35 MILLION housing units have just started to empty as boomers head to the grave. Ah, right, I was looking at outdated data that said there were about 105M. The CB says 132M. But your vacancy rate figures are still pure bullshit: http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr312/q312press.pdf ~3.8M empty rentals ~1.7M empty non-rentals Retiring baby boomers will sell their homes and move into apartments. Unless they burn the house down or die it will have zero impact on vacancy rates.

11. swebb Follow Befriend (3) 29 threads 490 comments Denver, CO

    30   6:14pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   iwog says It's just another one of your fabrications. We know you all too well. You got me there! I fabricated the definition of speculator on Investopedia to make you look bad. IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place.

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    31   6:26pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   swebb says IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place. Literally LOL here. What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait. Sometimes as in this instance however it's almost worth it. Sorry Darrell, it's time for you to go. Swebb is right.

13. dodgerfanjohn Follow Befriend 19 threads 590 comments Los Angeles, CA

    32   6:35pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Fwiw, I do agree that rents were rising during the past two years. In Los Angeles, they actually did push too high. This creates all sorts of problems...namely people who don't pay and must be evicted, unauthorized subleasing which creates crowded buildings and increased chance of damage, etc Rents hit a wall in September and have been declining since. I signed a new lease at the end of October and already regret it. I knew rents were starting to decline but was fearful that there wouldn't be many places available when my lease expired in January. Boy was I ever wrong. Last week, after nearly two years of 100% occupancy, my building advertises four units on Craigslist. And now all sorts of nearby units available, at prices from over two years ago as well. I'll be VERY surprised if we don't see a 7-10% decline in rents in Los Angeles by the end of 2013.

14. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    33   6:47pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units. Wow, a 10 million drop since... well, your last made up figure.

15. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    34   7:15pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Hello my realtor friend..... and we know what you realtors are about...... "bigsby". lmao It's a new construction pimping life for Darrell.

16. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    35   7:46pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Bigsby the realtor and his imaginary contracting business.. Who's claiming to be a contractor? You. And at $60/sqft no less. "Darrell", the garden shed new construction pimp.

17. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    36   7:56pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says And realtor bigsby backpedals furiously. Did you really think we've believed you? Wow, I'm a man of many talents. First I was apparently a realtor, now according to "Darrell", I've become a contractor. And all based from Kuwait. Long distance construction and home selling indeed. It all sounds nearly as impressive as your nationwide garden shed construction empire.

18. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    37   7:58pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says You're no man... that we're certain of. Oh, Darrell, you've hurt my feelings.

19. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    38   8:03pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Substantiate your bidding, estimating and construction experience...."bigsby". Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

20. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    39   8:05pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

21. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    40   8:06pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Bigsby says Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any. You don't have any idea How anyone can claim that building costs average $60/sq ft? You're right, I don't.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    41   8:08pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues. @patrick please block dumasses account. Where I come from, being called a liar is serious, and if he wasn't an anonymous poster, I'd force him to retract or sue him for libel for writing it... I back up EVERYTHING I post with sources. If you think that posting links to sources, such as zillow rental estimates, foreclosure radar data etc is lying, then you are too stupid to bother having a discussion with. Please have a vasectomy, and don't harm the species.

23. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    42   8:28pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)   Protected   robertoaribas says Where I come from, being called a liar is serious Are you from Saudi Arabia? What if I call you a Dog Fucker?

24. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    43   8:37pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says And here we are with another misrepresentation. But we're not surprise. The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units. http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0984.pdf I posted data that was current as of Q3 2012. You posted data from 2010. I win.

25. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    44   8:41pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Yes "kevin" you get to be right. But the truth remains. Yes, it does. The *exact same source that you used* says that total vacancies are under 6M vacancies as of two months ago (we'll have even more up to date figures in January). I can't for the life of me figure out what's wrong with you. I give up.

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    45   8:50pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues. It's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game. You did get one thing right. You can't understand.

27. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    46   8:57pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says t's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game. Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family. Still, the idea that baby boomers are going to suddenly start dying off in droves without appropriate replacement levels is pretty amusing. I'm glad I'm betting on the opposite happening.

28. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    47   8:58pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says It's a zero sum game Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    48   9:01pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Kevin says Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family. Sure, and population grows at about 1% and the price of gasoline will drive people in and out of far-flung suburbs depending on if it's high or low. There are multiple factors. Baby boomers might invigorate the healthcare economy and wages might start going up again. You gotta make your bets somewhere.

30. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    49   9:02pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Future rent increases seem contingent on tighter lending standards. If it becomes harder and harder to buy a home without 20% down, for instance, there will be more renters.

31. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    50   9:02pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up. First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement. Then examine WHY you were wrong. Unless you do this and have logical explanations, you are in no position to teach me or anyone else about the real estate market. According to you rents CAN'T be going up but they are doing so anyway. Presenting an argument why reality can't be true is a piss poor way to debate a topic.

32. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    51   9:04pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement. I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

33. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    52   9:06pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

34. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    53   9:08pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   dunnross says I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me. You don't work with any trends and your predictions are ludicrous. You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly. Yet prices aren't even doing their usual winter slump this year. Isn't it about time you admitted you screwed up? No one here agrees with you. Not even the most staunch real estate bears.

35. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    54   9:11pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly. And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices? And how many people, here, agree with that prediction...

36. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    55   9:11pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech? I didn't say I couldn't be wrong or you couldn't be wrong. I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong, you're not worth talking with because you can't even admit the way things really are.

37. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    56   9:12pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong So, have you examined why you were wrong about silver, yet?

38. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    57   9:13pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices? It really doesn't matter. I made some outstanding investments in silver and I published them real time for everyone to watch. All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

39. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    58   9:13pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says patrick please block dumasses account How about using the ignore link? Or -- become a premium user ( http://patrick.net/premium.php ) and then you can moderate your own threads, and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

40. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    59   9:14pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says All you've shown is that you're a blowhard. Not quite. I've shown everyone my post from 2006 when I sold my house and bought gold (actually, starting from 2005). My track record, here, beats yours by a mile.

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