House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst


By HousingBoom   Follow   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:17am   10,923 views   110 comments
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Numbers don't lie!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49436858/?fb_action_ids=552912418057720&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A306426616129186%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like%22%7D

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  1. iwog


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    31   6:26pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    swebb says

    IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place.

    Literally LOL here.

    What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait. Sometimes as in this instance however it's almost worth it.

    Sorry Darrell, it's time for you to go. Swebb is right.

  2. dodgerfanjohn


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    32   6:35pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Fwiw, I do agree that rents were rising during the past two years.

    In Los Angeles, they actually did push too high. This creates all sorts of problems...namely people who don't pay and must be evicted, unauthorized subleasing which creates crowded buildings and increased chance of damage, etc

    Rents hit a wall in September and have been declining since. I signed a new lease at the end of October and already regret it. I knew rents were starting to decline but was fearful that there wouldn't be many places available when my lease expired in January. Boy was I ever wrong. Last week, after nearly two years of 100% occupancy, my building advertises four units on Craigslist. And now all sorts of nearby units available, at prices from over two years ago as well.

    I'll be VERY surprised if we don't see a 7-10% decline in rents in Los Angeles by the end of 2013.

  3. Bigsby


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    33   6:47pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

    Wow, a 10 million drop since... well, your last made up figure.

  4. Bigsby


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    34   7:15pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Hello my realtor friend..... and we know what you realtors are about...... "bigsby". lmao

    It's a new construction pimping life for Darrell.

  5. Bigsby


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    35   7:46pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Bigsby the realtor and his imaginary contracting business..

    Who's claiming to be a contractor? You. And at $60/sqft no less. "Darrell", the garden shed new construction pimp.

  6. Bigsby


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    36   7:56pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    And realtor bigsby backpedals furiously.

    Did you really think we've believed you?

    Wow, I'm a man of many talents. First I was apparently a realtor, now according to "Darrell", I've become a contractor. And all based from Kuwait. Long distance construction and home selling indeed. It all sounds nearly as impressive as your nationwide garden shed construction empire.

  7. Bigsby


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    37   7:58pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    You're no man... that we're certain of.

    Oh, Darrell, you've hurt my feelings.

  8. Bigsby


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    38   8:03pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Substantiate your bidding, estimating and construction experience...."bigsby".

    Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

  9. dunnross


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    39   8:05pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

  10. Bigsby


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    40   8:06pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Bigsby says

    Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

    You don't have any idea

    How anyone can claim that building costs average $60/sq ft? You're right, I don't.

  11. dunnross


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    41   8:28pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    Where I come from, being called a liar is serious

    Are you from Saudi Arabia? What if I call you a Dog Fucker?

  12. Kevin


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    42   8:37pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    And here we are with another misrepresentation. But we're not surprise.

    The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

    http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0984.pdf

    I posted data that was current as of Q3 2012. You posted data from 2010.

    I win.

  13. Kevin


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    43   8:41pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Yes "kevin" you get to be right.

    But the truth remains.

    Yes, it does. The *exact same source that you used* says that total vacancies are under 6M vacancies as of two months ago (we'll have even more up to date figures in January).

    I can't for the life of me figure out what's wrong with you. I give up.

  14. iwog


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    44   8:50pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

    It's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

    You did get one thing right. You can't understand.

  15. Kevin


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    45   8:57pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    t's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

    Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

    Still, the idea that baby boomers are going to suddenly start dying off in droves without appropriate replacement levels is pretty amusing.

    I'm glad I'm betting on the opposite happening.

  16. dunnross


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    46   8:58pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    It's a zero sum game

    Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

  17. iwog


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    47   9:01pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Kevin says

    Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

    Sure, and population grows at about 1% and the price of gasoline will drive people in and out of far-flung suburbs depending on if it's high or low. There are multiple factors. Baby boomers might invigorate the healthcare economy and wages might start going up again.

    You gotta make your bets somewhere.

  18. Kevin


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    48   9:02pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Future rent increases seem contingent on tighter lending standards.

    If it becomes harder and harder to buy a home without 20% down, for instance, there will be more renters.

  19. iwog


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    49   9:02pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    dunnross says

    Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

    First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

    Then examine WHY you were wrong. Unless you do this and have logical explanations, you are in no position to teach me or anyone else about the real estate market.

    According to you rents CAN'T be going up but they are doing so anyway. Presenting an argument why reality can't be true is a piss poor way to debate a topic.

  20. dunnross


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    50   9:04pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

    I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

  21. dunnross


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    51   9:06pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

  22. iwog


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    52   9:08pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    dunnross says

    I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

    You don't work with any trends and your predictions are ludicrous. You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

    Yet prices aren't even doing their usual winter slump this year.

    Isn't it about time you admitted you screwed up? No one here agrees with you. Not even the most staunch real estate bears.

  23. dunnross


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    53   9:11pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

    And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

    And how many people, here, agree with that prediction...

  24. iwog


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    54   9:11pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

    I didn't say I couldn't be wrong or you couldn't be wrong. I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong, you're not worth talking with because you can't even admit the way things really are.

  25. dunnross


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    55   9:12pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong

    So, have you examined why you were wrong about silver, yet?

  26. iwog


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    56   9:13pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

    It really doesn't matter. I made some outstanding investments in silver and I published them real time for everyone to watch.

    All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

  27. Patrick


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    57   9:13pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    patrick please block dumasses account

    How about using the ignore link?

    Or -- become a premium user ( http://patrick.net/premium.php ) and then you can moderate your own threads, and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

  28. dunnross


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    58   9:14pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    iwog says

    All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

    Not quite. I've shown everyone my post from 2006 when I sold my house and bought gold (actually, starting from 2005). My track record, here, beats yours by a mile.

  29. dunnross


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    59   9:16pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Patrick says

    users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

    That's a cool feature, Patrick! I'll definitely sign up for the premium account!

  30. dunnross


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    60   9:19pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Done!

  31. The Professor


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    61   9:20pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Kevin says

    (we'll have even more up to date figures in January).

    Thats when one of both Iwog and Robertos' rentals is getting new tenants.

  32. dunnross


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    62   9:20pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

  33. The Professor


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    63   9:21pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    dunnross says

    Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

    Where is the fun in that?

  34. Mark D


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    64   9:25pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The Professor says

    dunnross says

    Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

    Where is the fun in that?

    some people have mental problems (like that guy Darrel/war/liarwatch) so it's best to ignore them.

  35. Kevin


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    65   9:29pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dunnross says

    Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

    Sure they can, you just can't see it.

  36. The Professor


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    66   9:30pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Mark D says

    some people have mental problems (like that guy Darrel/war/liarwatch) so it's best to ignore them.

    I am here for info and entertainment. By your logic I should probably ignore my buddy apocolypse.

    Where is the fun in that?

  37. dunnross


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    67   9:30pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    > and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

    But Patrick promised!

  38. SubOink


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    68   11:39pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait.

    I am worse - I have lowered myself many times to his level of stubborn..."when you don't have a point, just repeat the old point again" -

    but its kinda fun...about once or twice a year

  39. dunnross


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    69   11:41pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    iwog says

    You don't work with any trends

    And an 11 year bull market in PMs and a 6 year bear market in housing is not a trend, in your opinion? It is you who is not working with the trend, thinking that the trend has changed, just because we had 6 months of seasonal dead-cat bounce.

  40. dunnross


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    70   11:43pm Wed 21 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected  

    Do you even realize how dismal your odds of being correct when you go against the trend?

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