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House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst


By HousingBoom   Follow   Tue, 20 Nov 2012, 4:17pm PST   13,388 views   110 comments   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)  

Numbers don't lie!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49436858/?fb_action_ids=552912418057720&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A306426616129186%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like%22%7D

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iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:26am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 31

swebb says

IWOG, for the love of god, click the "Ignore" link on this idiot. He isn't interested in intelligent debate, seeking truth, or as far as I can tell anything worthwhile. I ignored him and it's fantastic. I only see his posts when a) he is the original poster, b) someone responds to his idiotic posts. People like him detract from / dilute the value of the forums. If we could just get more people to click the ignore link it would make this a better place.

Literally LOL here.

What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait. Sometimes as in this instance however it's almost worth it.

Sorry Darrell, it's time for you to go. Swebb is right.

dodgerfanjohn   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:35am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 32

Fwiw, I do agree that rents were rising during the past two years.

In Los Angeles, they actually did push too high. This creates all sorts of problems...namely people who don't pay and must be evicted, unauthorized subleasing which creates crowded buildings and increased chance of damage, etc

Rents hit a wall in September and have been declining since. I signed a new lease at the end of October and already regret it. I knew rents were starting to decline but was fearful that there wouldn't be many places available when my lease expired in January. Boy was I ever wrong. Last week, after nearly two years of 100% occupancy, my building advertises four units on Craigslist. And now all sorts of nearby units available, at prices from over two years ago as well.

I'll be VERY surprised if we don't see a 7-10% decline in rents in Los Angeles by the end of 2013.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:47am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

Darrell In Phoenix says

The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

Wow, a 10 million drop since... well, your last made up figure.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:15am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 34

Darrell In Phoenix says

Hello my realtor friend..... and we know what you realtors are about...... "bigsby". lmao

It's a new construction pimping life for Darrell.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby the realtor and his imaginary contracting business..

Who's claiming to be a contractor? You. And at $60/sqft no less. "Darrell", the garden shed new construction pimp.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:56am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

Darrell In Phoenix says

And realtor bigsby backpedals furiously.

Did you really think we've believed you?

Wow, I'm a man of many talents. First I was apparently a realtor, now according to "Darrell", I've become a contractor. And all based from Kuwait. Long distance construction and home selling indeed. It all sounds nearly as impressive as your nationwide garden shed construction empire.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:58am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

Darrell In Phoenix says

You're no man... that we're certain of.

Oh, Darrell, you've hurt my feelings.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

Darrell In Phoenix says

Substantiate your bidding, estimating and construction experience...."bigsby".

Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 39

The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:06pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

Sure... when you can demonstrate where I claimed any.

You don't have any idea

How anyone can claim that building costs average $60/sq ft? You're right, I don't.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:28pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 41

robertoaribas says

Where I come from, being called a liar is serious

Are you from Saudi Arabia? What if I call you a Dog Fucker?

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 42

Darrell In Phoenix says

And here we are with another misrepresentation. But we're not surprise.

The truth? 20 MILLION empty housing units.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0984.pdf

I posted data that was current as of Q3 2012. You posted data from 2010.

I win.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 43

Darrell In Phoenix says

Yes "kevin" you get to be right.

But the truth remains.

Yes, it does. The *exact same source that you used* says that total vacancies are under 6M vacancies as of two months ago (we'll have even more up to date figures in January).

I can't for the life of me figure out what's wrong with you. I give up.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 44

dunnross says

The thing I can't understand is how can Iwog and Roberto the Realtor both claim that investors are going to buy up all the houses in the country to rent them out, and still state that rents are rising in the same sentence. These 2 guys have lied so much, that they are now stepping on their own tongues.

It's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

You did get one thing right. You can't understand.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

iwog says

t's not complicated. Investors rent to the former owners. Every foreclosure creates a new renter. It's a zero sum game.

Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

Still, the idea that baby boomers are going to suddenly start dying off in droves without appropriate replacement levels is pretty amusing.

I'm glad I'm betting on the opposite happening.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:58pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

iwog says

It's a zero sum game

Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 47

Kevin says

Maybe not quite. A lot of people move in with family.

Sure, and population grows at about 1% and the price of gasoline will drive people in and out of far-flung suburbs depending on if it's high or low. There are multiple factors. Baby boomers might invigorate the healthcare economy and wages might start going up again.

You gotta make your bets somewhere.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:02pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 48

Future rent increases seem contingent on tighter lending standards.

If it becomes harder and harder to buy a home without 20% down, for instance, there will be more renters.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:02pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 49

dunnross says

Even if you assume that nobody doubles up or moves back in with their parents (which is a big ass-umption to make), I guess, I still don't understand where is the rents going up part. I guess, the only thing which I do understand is that they didn't teach you in school that "zero sum game" translates to: rents ain't going up.

First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

Then examine WHY you were wrong. Unless you do this and have logical explanations, you are in no position to teach me or anyone else about the real estate market.

According to you rents CAN'T be going up but they are doing so anyway. Presenting an argument why reality can't be true is a piss poor way to debate a topic.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:04pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 50

iwog says

First accept that you were dead wrong in all of your predictions of current market movement.

I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:06pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 51

So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:08pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 52

dunnross says

I wasn't wrong, and there is nothing for me to accept, here. In my predictions, I work with long-term trends, and dead-cat bounces don't interest me.

You don't work with any trends and your predictions are ludicrous. You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

Yet prices aren't even doing their usual winter slump this year.

Isn't it about time you admitted you screwed up? No one here agrees with you. Not even the most staunch real estate bears.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 53

iwog says

You have ONE YEAR for prices to fall to nominal 1975 levels or your best known prediction fails horribly.

And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

And how many people, here, agree with that prediction...

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 54

dunnross says

So Iwog. When are you going to accept that you were dead wrong about Silver going to $15, and that you have no business teaching anybody, here, anything. Or, are you going to wait until silver gets to $100, before you make that acceptance speech?

I didn't say I couldn't be wrong or you couldn't be wrong. I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong, you're not worth talking with because you can't even admit the way things really are.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 55

iwog says

I said unless you're willing to examine WHY you were wrong

So, have you examined why you were wrong about silver, yet?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 56

dunnross says

And how much time do you have for silver to fall below $15, which, BTW is even below 1970's prices?

It really doesn't matter. I made some outstanding investments in silver and I published them real time for everyone to watch.

All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

Patrick   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 57

robertoaribas says

patrick please block dumasses account

How about using the ignore link?

Or -- become a premium user ( http://patrick.net/premium.php ) and then you can moderate your own threads, and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:14pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 58

iwog says

All you've shown is that you're a blowhard.

Not quite. I've shown everyone my post from 2006 when I sold my house and bought gold (actually, starting from 2005). My track record, here, beats yours by a mile.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:16pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 59

Patrick says

users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

That's a cool feature, Patrick! I'll definitely sign up for the premium account!

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 60

Done!

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:20pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 61

Kevin says

(we'll have even more up to date figures in January).

Thats when one of both Iwog and Robertos' rentals is getting new tenants.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:20pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 62

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:21pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Where is the fun in that?

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:25pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 64

The Professor says

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Where is the fun in that?

some people have mental problems (like that guy Darrel/war/liarwatch) so it's best to ignore them.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:29pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 65

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Sure they can, you just can't see it.

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 66

Mark D says

some people have mental problems (like that guy Darrel/war/liarwatch) so it's best to ignore them.

I am here for info and entertainment. By your logic I should probably ignore my buddy apocolypse.

Where is the fun in that?

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 67

> and users you have on ignore cannot comment on your threads.

But Patrick promised!

SubOink   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 3:39pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 68

iwog says

What can I say, I'm a sucker for troll bait.

I am worse - I have lowered myself many times to his level of stubborn..."when you don't have a point, just repeat the old point again" -

but its kinda fun...about once or twice a year

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 3:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 69

iwog says

You don't work with any trends

And an 11 year bull market in PMs and a 6 year bear market in housing is not a trend, in your opinion? It is you who is not working with the trend, thinking that the trend has changed, just because we had 6 months of seasonal dead-cat bounce.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 3:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 70

Do you even realize how dismal your odds of being correct when you go against the trend?

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