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House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst


By HousingBoom   Follow   Tue, 20 Nov 2012, 4:17pm PST   13,145 views   110 comments
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Numbers don't lie!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49436858/?fb_action_ids=552912418057720&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A306426616129186%7D&action_type_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22og.recommends%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%22552912418057720%22%3A%22s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like%22%7D

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RentingForHalfTheCost   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:48pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 71

iwog says

This is simply not true at all and I have multiple sources that prove your personal experience is not typical. Rents are increasing, have been increasing since 2009, are near all time highs, and have increased the most during 2012.

Come June, I'll have $400/mth that says your are wrong. Maybe more if things keep getting worse, which I don't see why it would change. Lots of people around me are losing their jobs, taking less paying jobs, and stressed to the limit to make the mortgage payment. Rents are going nowhere from here. Down is the only direction in my opinion and experience.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:52pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 72

iwog says

http://www.ci.pleasanton.ca.us/pdf/het-agenda-110105-3-Sep%202010%20HC%20Item%208b%20rent%20vac%20survey.pdf

Makes me laugh. "The city of Pleasanton housing commission". I bet their motto is

"To release reports to the community to talk about how beautiful and prosperous our city is becoming. To promote home ownership in an effort to increase the tax base. Then use this increased revenue to offer bonuses and salary adjustments to all the members of the housing commission."

Yah, no doctoring of the numbers from that place. All good there Iwog. Keep the shell game going.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:58pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 73

Just talked to my landlord yesterday. A call I initiated. He is open to a rent reduction and also asked me to consider buying the place. Seems like he finally is realizing there is more money in selling rather than collecting rents. I told him I wouldn't be a buying at today's appraisals.

So, I am probably going to lock in for another years of leases soon at a reduced rate. Probably down about $400. So, instead of $3000, I would be paying $2600. The selling price would be upwards of 1.1m. You do the math. Don't believe all the junk thrown on this site from the housing pumpers, do you own homework. There are great opportunities for those that don't want to just follow the herd.

iwog   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 1:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 74

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Yah, no doctoring of the numbers from that place. All good there Iwog. Keep the shell game going.

Always the same thing isn't it. Your total lack of data, your compelling vacuum of no information whatsoever, (other than your claimed personal anecdote) will always trump every study that anyone else brings to the table.

Pretty standard with you isn't it.

SubOink   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 7:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 75

RentingForHalfTheCost says

So, I am probably going to lock in for another years of leases soon at a reduced rate. Probably down about $400. So, instead of $3000, I would be paying $2600. The selling price would be upwards of 1.1m

I am sure that there are individual examples out there that can prove any trend wrong. Sometimes you are at the right place at the right time.

But let's stick to data that you can show. Links etc. Everything else is hear say.

You can tell us that you now rent a 2Mill house for $500/month. I can't prove you wrong.

ELC   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 10:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 76

Patrick says

Or -- become a premium user

He's waiting for the Government to subsidise his user account as well.

Zakrajshek   Fri, 23 Nov 2012, 12:17am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 77

Why is it that when house prices drop, the media always reports this as a negative thing? (I think this article referred the declines of the past 5 years as "horrible") I would say the declines of the past five years have been "wonderful." What's negative about a young family being able to afford a home that they were previously priced out of? Nothing!

iwog   Fri, 23 Nov 2012, 12:41am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 78

Billybigrig says

Shills do what shills do best , attempt to mislead the general "sheeple" public
http://www.npg.org/facts/world_pop_year.htm

World population? LOL

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&idim=country:US&dl=en&hl=en&q=united+states+population

iwog   Fri, 23 Nov 2012, 3:39am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 79

Was there a conclusion you wanted to convey with that seeking alpha article? The only point that it makes is that population growth numbers might be off.

Do you realize that the article said people living longer and increased immigration numbers may be causes for the numbers being TOO LOW or did you just not read it?

The Professor   Fri, 23 Nov 2012, 4:12am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 80

Zakrajshek says

What's negative about a young family being able to afford a home that they were previously priced out of?

Some investor is going to buy it up and rent to the "young family" at double the PITI.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 12:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 81

iwog says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Yah, no doctoring of the numbers from that place. All good there Iwog. Keep the shell game going.

Always the same thing isn't it. Your total lack of data, your compelling vacuum of no information whatsoever, (other than your claimed personal anecdote) will always trump every study that anyone else brings to the table.

Pretty standard with you isn't it.

I don't look at data from sources where their salaries depend on the trend going in one particular direction. Sadly, in real estate most of the information released to the public is from such sources. I have my personal anecdote and that is fine with me. I am really the only one I would trust with my hard fought savings anyway. You stick to your slanted data analysis, and I'll stick to my real life experiences.

tatupu70   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 1:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 82

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I don't look at data from sources where their salaries depend on the trend going in one particular direction. Sadly, in real estate most of the information released to the public is from such sources. I have my personal anecdote and that is fine with me. I am really the only one I would trust with my hard fought savings anyway. You stick to your slanted data analysis, and I'll stick to my real life experiences.

In other words--I'll stick my head in the sand and ignore anything that disagrees with my preconceived notions.

Good luck with that.

Goran_K   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 1:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 83

ELC says

He's waiting for the Government to subsidise his user account as well.

Gold. I can't believe I missed this gem.

Patrick, this could be a new revenue stream.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 4:16am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 84

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I don't look at data from sources where their salaries depend on the trend going in one particular direction. Sadly, in real estate most of the information released to the public is from such sources. I have my personal anecdote and that is fine with me. I am really the only one I would trust with my hard fought savings anyway. You stick to your slanted data analysis, and I'll stick to my real life experiences.

In other words--I'll stick my head in the sand and ignore anything that disagrees with my preconceived notions.

Good luck with that.

Yah, that is what it means. Trust is earned is the lesson here. No real estate organization has ever done anything to build my trust. So, I don't trust them or their reports. I do, however, trust my experience and judgement. Head in the sand or not. You can go on believing NAR like organizations all you want. You can even put your skin in the ponzi scheme and get burned. It really doesn't bother me. If anything, it gives me a good chuckle.

tatupu70   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 5:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 85

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You can go on believing NAR like organizations all you want.

I agree with distrusting NAR *opinions*. They are clearly biased. But distrusting *data* that is easily verifiable simply because the NAR compiled it is folly. You have to be able to separate data from opinion.

CDon   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 8:42am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 86

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I don't look at data from sources where their salaries depend on the trend going in one particular direction.

I would agree with that. However, given that the pleasanton data showed rent actually declining for several years, why do you find this data faulty as well?

David Losh   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 10:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 87

This is another guy who has presented no data.

If you want to look at his data it costs $99.

From his interview he relies heavily on this phantom, shadow inventorty. The only thing he presents though is the difference between median hoising cost, and the cost per square foot.

This is pure speculation on this guys part with no analysis.

David Losh   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 12:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 88

War says

Hows your construction biz

You're so nutty.

How's your construction business in all 48 States, at $60 per sq ft.

BTW, how does that compare to what this guy is saying about price per square foot?

David Losh   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 12:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 89

War says

Just tell the truth Dave.

I always do.

My Bullshit Quotient is zero.

Now stop lying, get your personalities straight, and if you have data. bring it.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 12:22am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 90

You reposted a comment you made before?

If you had any facts, figures, data, or disputes you'd post it.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 12:44am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 91

The fact still remains you could have taken this opportunity to demonstrate some of your talking points, but you chose not to, so let me help you out.

What this guy is saying is that the price per housing unit should be more homogenous, nationally. He ignores some data like wages, and economic growth in a region, but he still has a point.

There is no reason for the number of housing units, which totals millions, that were built between 2003 to 2008 to be selling for the high prices they once commanded. We should see the price per housing unit fall like a rock.

His second point, which you could have seized on is the price per square foot.

You keep making construction cost claims across all 48 States as being some how equal, OK, there is some truth to that, so why do we have prices from $200 per sq ft to $600 per sq ft in the same area.

The only problem I see with this guy is he wants to charge for his data.

His analysis may be correct, but we won't know unless we pay him.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 1:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 92

LiarWatch says

You walked way out on a limb and pretended to be something you're not.

What the heck are you talking about now?

Why waste your entire morning with typing gibberish?

You are the only one here that has pretended to be something you obviously are not.

Bring data.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 1:16am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 93

LiarWatch says

You've been caught posting shit you know nothing of for so long you can't even remember.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 1:32am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 94

LiarWatch says

Here's a good example.

So, you didn't read the thread, or click any of the links.

That reference is to the Million Dollar Mike House by the Park.

the team at Build LLC has been superb about following up with us and taking care of miscellaneous things that needed taking care of; things like fixing or replacing some door hardware, regrouting some cracked grout, and facilitating the replacement of a (gigantic!) defective pane of glass. Not only has everything been done quickly and efficiently, but almost as importantly, it’s been done happily. Team Build stands behind their work, and as has been the case from the beginning, they aren’t happy unless you are happy.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 1:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 95

LiarWatch says

Here's a good example.

This is a very good example of how you, and your multiple personalities have brought nothing to the table, but trolling.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 2:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 96

LiarWatch says

you know NOTHING about contracting, estimating or construction

You, rather than any one else, is the one who has made the claim of being a big time contractor.

You were incapapble of keeping your comments straight so you fall back on your lack of data, knowledge, or ability to make a case in your comments.

You took my comment that $150 per sq ft was a good deal for a home purchase in Seattle, in 2003, and turned it around to suit your own claims of being a contractor.

You have yet to make a comment with any contracting ability, knowledge, or insight, but you continue on trolling.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 5:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 97

LiarWatch says

You lied.

This is kind of amusing that your avatar says stop lying when you have been caught so many times.

You're the big time contractor, yet you have never made a post that made any sense concerning contracting, estimating, or construction.

David Losh   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 5:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 98

Wait a minute!

Did you just run another thread into the ground, and I helped you?

Shees.

iwog   Wed, 17 Jul 2013, 9:36pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 99

HousingBoom says

House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst

Numbers don't lie!!!

I guess numbers do lie.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Wed, 17 Jul 2013, 9:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (14)   Dislike     Comment 100

1 8:23pm Tue 21 Feb 2012 Share Quote Permalink Like (25) Dislike Edit Protected

If you put enough arm into it, any dead cat will bounce, even appearing lively for a moment as it leaves the sidewalk.

When an entire industry is vested in making the dead cat appear convincingly vital, really anything can happen for a month or two.

When the whole federal government has thrown everything it and the Wall Street psychopaths can muster to keep the bubble inflated, the cat may even blink momentarily.

You know it.

I know it.

The market is fucking toast.

The cleansing Cannibal Anarchy is inevitable.

iwog   Wed, 17 Jul 2013, 9:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 101

Go to bed.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Wed, 17 Jul 2013, 9:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 102

iwog says

Go to bed.

Started work two hours ago. Day's well underway now.

hrhjuliet   Thu, 18 Jul 2013, 7:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 103

The Professor says

dunnross says

Now I can put both Iwog the liar and Roberto the liar on my ignore list, and neither of them can write anything bad about me! Woopie!

Where is the fun in that?

True. You would miss out on a lot of laughs. (;

hrhjuliet   Thu, 18 Jul 2013, 7:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 104

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

1 8:23pm Tue 21 Feb 2012 Share Quote Permalink Like (25) Dislike Edit Protected

If you put enough arm into it, any dead cat will bounce, even appearing lively for a moment as it leaves the sidewalk.

When an entire industry is vested in making the dead cat appear convincingly vital, really anything can happen for a month or two.

When the whole federal government has thrown everything it and the Wall Street psychopaths can muster to keep the bubble inflated, the cat may even blink momentarily.

You know it.

I know it.

The market is fucking toast.

The cleansing Cannibal Anarchy is inevitable.

True. I don't know about the cannibal part, but everything else is honest and straight to the heart of it. I agree Mr. Shostakovich.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Thu, 18 Jul 2013, 8:43am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 105

hrhjuliet says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

1 8:23pm Tue 21 Feb 2012 Share Quote Permalink Like (25) Dislike Edit Protected

If you put enough arm into it, any dead cat will bounce, even appearing lively for a moment as it leaves the sidewalk.

When an entire industry is vested in making the dead cat appear convincingly vital, really anything can happen for a month or two.

When the whole federal government has thrown everything it and the Wall Street psychopaths can muster to keep the bubble inflated, the cat may even blink momentarily.

You know it.

I know it.

The market is fucking toast.

The cleansing Cannibal Anarchy is inevitable.

True. I don't know about the cannibal part, but everything else is honest and straight to the heart of it. I agree Mr. Shostakovich.

Well, it is something you'll understand when a starving neonazi cannibal that hasn't ever known a paycheck is climbing through the window and bites your face.

Thank you, Mssr Hrh.

HEY YOU   Thu, 18 Jul 2013, 10:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 106

Cannibal Anarchy.

Any one ready for a Penis dog smothered in Mountain Oyster Chili & side of Chitlins.

kmo722   Fri, 19 Jul 2013, 11:28pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 107

iwog says

guess numbers do lie

some numbers are 30 year (or more) numbers and some are not... I'm sure you know the difference..

iwog   Sat, 20 Jul 2013, 2:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 108

kmo722 says

iwog says

guess numbers do lie

some numbers are 30 year (or more) numbers and some are not... I'm sure you know the difference..

Here's what I know for sure. People who make comments like this:

HousingBoom says

House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst. Numbers don't lie!!!

Should probably shut up.

E-man   Sat, 20 Jul 2013, 2:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 109

iwog says

HousingBoom says

House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Bottom, Says Analyst

Numbers don't lie!!!

I guess numbers do lie.

Numbers don't lie. He just got the title wrong. "House Prices Are Nowhere Near a Top."

New Renter   Sat, 20 Jul 2013, 2:53pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 110

HEY YOU says

Cannibal Anarchy.

Any one ready for a Penis dog smothered in Mountain Oyster Chili & side of Chitlins.

Order up!

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