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Peter Schiff – The coming 2013 – 2014 U.S. crash will be worse than 2008

By HousingBoom   Follow   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 6:15pm   14,016 views   203 comments
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http://riehlworldview.com/2012/07/video-peter-schiff-the-coming-2013-2014-us-crash-will-be-worse-than-2008-and-europe.html

If you listen to Schiff and buy what's he's saying, the policies of the Obama administration are making an already bad situation much worse, setting us up for calamity and the coming crash, whether in 2013 or 2014, or a bit further out, will be beyond anything we've seen recently.

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1. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   124   11:41am Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Goran_K says The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks? we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance. The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income. There's your problem, mate. SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years. Just what the doctor ordered.

2. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   125   11:45am Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Kevin says I don't see how it's a net positive. Every dollar that comes out just came out of somebody else's taxes. If it was coming out of useless marginal dollars that might be a different story yes, I'm thinking higher taxes on non FICA-hit income. That's the only thing that would be "fair". And thus the least likely, LOL. Also we can just print the payouts somehow. That's also possible, sigh.

3. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   126   12:17pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Bellingham Bill says Goran_K says The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks? we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance. The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income. There's your problem, mate. SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years. Just what the doctor ordered. Only accurate if SS is fixed to no longer be a regressive tax (maybe we quit the current charade and just fold it into income tax). The top 10% pay significantly less as a percentage of income in SS than the regular folks. Bellingham Bill says That's the only thing that would be "fair". And thus the least likely, LOL. Just remove the cap and it'd have a big impact. If you move a marginal dollar from someone who wasn't spending it (or wasn't spending it efficiently anyway), and give it to someone who must spend every dollar that they get, you'll stimulate the economy. SS taxes at present just take dollars from people who need them (those making under $115k/year or thereabouts) and gives them to people who need them slightly more.

4. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   127   12:19pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Bellingham Bill says Goran_K says The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks? we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance. The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income. There's your problem, mate. SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years. Just what the doctor ordered. All of that money is just going to keep a huge geriatric boomer population (the largest percentage of old timers in U.S history) alive, and off the streets. I'm not sure how that helps your point.

5. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   128   12:50pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Goran_K says I'm not sure how that helps your point. the 95%'s economy needs velocity (spending). old people need more paid labor, which results in wage income. Every dollar of pension income -- and medicare-paid expenses -- just get passed right into the private economy. This is going to be a TWO TRILLION PLUS flow into the private economy by 2030. This dynamic is also why I'm not terribly bearish on Japan. They don't have much of a boomer population (compared to us) but their support burden is going to rise a lot as their working age population declines. But this "support burden" actually translates into a much tighter job market.

6. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   129   12:54pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Kevin says SS taxes at present just take dollars from people who need them (those making under $115k/year or thereabouts) and gives them to people who need them slightly more. I agree with your other point (that the top 10% needs to kick in the money that's paying down the SSTF) but this wealth-transfer aspect of SSA is sheer elegance. Payroll taxes are a great way to sequester income for necessities so that we don't use all our disposable incomes to bid up rents and home values. Regressive taxes come out of rents! At any rate, the less we tax the masses the more the landlords can jack up their rents, and the more we all just bid up the cost of housing. I *really* wish I had understood this back in 2001 as the Bush tax cuts were going down, sigh.

7. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   130   1:03pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Bellingham Bill says This is going to be a TWO TRILLION PLUS flow into the private economy by 2030. This dynamic is also why I'm not terribly bearish on Japan. They don't have much of a boomer population (compared to us) but their support burden is going to rise a lot as their working age population declines. But this "support burden" actually translates into a much tighter job market. Yes $2T in SSA payments, but many times that lost since many of the boomer population will no longer be working, or very productive. Yes the support structure for those industries may experience some growth, but I don't see how that will stabilize the economy in the theory you have put forth.

8. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   131   1:43pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   Protected   Goran_K says but many times that lost since many of the boomer population will no longer be working, this is a good thing since Gen Y is just now moving into working age. If Gen Y is 1982 to 2000 they are aged 12 to 20 right now and they will take over from their parents wrt jobs. Goran_K says but I don't see how that will stabilize the economy in the theory you have put forth. I'm just saying the boomer retirement has some under-appreciated upsides. If taxes are raised on the lower 95% to cover the rising cost of the boomer support, then, no, it won't be all that hot. But the top 10% cleared $3.3T in AGI in 2010 and paid $610B in taxes. If we doubled taxes on corporations ($300B) and doubled taxes on the top 10% ($600B) and redirected $300B of our defense outlays into health expansion, we'd have a balanced budget and a much more symmetrical wealth distribution arrangement. Or we can just print it, LOL. That's the most likely outcome I think. Who needs pain when you've got a printer.

9. eoulim Follow Befriend 2 threads 18 comments

   132   2:28pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   We are not definitely Japan. But, last 5 years or so, we have been Japan who did not really reckon with problems for last 2 decades. They did it with 90% domestic debt. So in fact, Japan could do it quite well without foreign debts. We did it Japan style (not Gangnam Style), only worse is with foreign debts. It's time now. Are we going to finally reckon with the problem that are worsened last 5 years ? Are we really NOT Japan ?

10. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

    133   3:01pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Housing demand is at 16 year lows.... and falling. what a bizarre assertion to make when the baby boom echo peaked exactly 20 years ago! Population growth overall is slowing -- the population aged 25 to 64 grew ~20% in the 1980s but only 11% in the 2000s and will "only" grow 6% in this decade, but that's still growth, LOL. Here in my Realtor Reality™ the population of age 25-34 yos grew 14% in the 1980s, actually fell 8% in the 1990s, grew 5% in the 2000s, and is going to grow 9% this decade, 2% in the 2020s, and 8-9% (per-decade) again in the 2030-2050 period.

11. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    134   3:30pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Listening to Schiff? LOL

12. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    135   3:39pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Housing Demand is at 16 year lows Do you have a link for that?

13. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    136   4:19pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says Wait a second. Your my pet project, why ignore you. Link, please.

14. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    137   4:42pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Darrell In Phoenix says little troll Link. You either have a link to support your absurd assertion, or go away. You've once again mirepresented what I've said, so I'll probably want a link for that also.

15. The Professor Follow Befriend (5) 24 threads 1,306 comments Premium

    138   5:51pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   David I seem to remember you writing interesting posts. Your feud with Darell is tedious. It takes at least two to argue. Ignore him or ignore him. Thanks

16. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    139   6:18pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   The Professor says Ignore him or ignore him. Oh, alrighty.

17. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    140   8:47pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David Losh says Darrell In Phoenix says Housing Demand is at 16 year lows Do you have a link for that? Darrel doesn't do links - he just says.

18. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    141   11:11pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Bellingham Bill says this is a good thing since Gen Y is just now moving into working age. If Gen Y is 1982 to 2000 they are aged 12 to 20 right now and they will take over from their parents wrt jobs. I'm sorry but that theory doesn't make any sense. The retiring boomers are leaving behind mid-level to senior positions, Gen Y isn't going to be able to just walk into these jobs and take over. They are trying to get entry level positions, unfortunately, many of these jobs (if you keep up with hiring forecast) simply aren't there. Either more experienced mid-level types in their 30s and 40s are taking them, or the positions don't even exist anymore as many of them have been shipped over seas. It's one of the biggest worries for new grads these days, and more and more of them are simply not entering the job market and either 1) going back to school, or 2) moving back home and taking partial employment. I do agree that the boomer retirement saga will have many upsides (as they die off, we can finally have some form of austerity instead of hegemonic cold war era entitlement), but SSA checks bolstering the economy just seems like a huge stretch to me.

19. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

    142   11:31pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says The retiring boomers are leaving behind mid-level to senior positions, Gen Y isn't going to be able to just walk into these jobs and take over. of course not, but every hole at the top will leave a hole at the bottom as people move up. Goran_K says or the positions don't even exist anymore as many of them have been shipped over seas sure, that's a problem, but that's orthogonal to the baby boom retiring en masse as they are starting to now. There were 4 MILLION boomers born every year during the boom years of 1952-1964. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html Goran_K says but SSA checks bolstering the economy just seems like a huge stretch to me. it's going to be a nice tailwind, that's all. Kinda like "helicopter money". The boomers have been allegedly saving for decades, and now they finally get to spend their money! The more this spending is being funded from the top 5-10%, the better net stimulus it will be. Hell, we can probably even print some of it if we need to. . .

20. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    143   11:41pm Sun 25 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Bellingham Bill says The more this spending is being funded from the top 5-10%, the better net stimulus it will be. Hell, we can probably even print some of it if we need to. . . It's just not going to happen. Printing money to support a SS short fall with a little socialism thrown in for flavor? I honestly hope you're not being serious.

21. maxweber21 Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments

    144   6:33am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   IDK about you all but I think we are not looking at a "crash" as much as a continued reditribution of wealth from those who work to those who own. That's what the QE's have been all about and the bailouts also. We were looking at a crash in 2007 but the governing monied class took a housing market problem and turned it into a national change of direction. I don't see how this ends well unless American workers - those "in the arena" to refer to Roosevelt - start taking the country back. I didn't watch the video because I really don't have time to sit through videos when I can read the article in a minute or two. But, some points from the discussion: 1. government lowered the flourine amounts in water last year so reproduction should increase 2. no reason to replace a retiree with someone at the same pay band. In my generation, 40-somethings, I commonly see people doing the same job as their predecessor for significantly less pay. 3. We could have a crash but what we will see is a change. E.g. my neighbors in our middle class $80K household income neighborhood regularly shop at GoodWill, DollarGeneral, Aldi, and the Farmer's Market. Going and gone are the days of Sharper Image, Restoration Hardware, and Whole Foods. Maybe some people can afford them. Plus lots of sells/trades with neighbors including formal things ranging from neighborhood-wide yard sales to mother's club sales and such. 4. The retirees I personally know are NOT at all sitting on a cash pile. They are living on nearly the tightest budgets the ever have.

22. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    145   6:48am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   maxweber21 says ...$180K household income neighborhood regularly shop at GoodWill, DollarGeneral, Aldi, and the Farmer's Market. Spot the odd one out.

23. maxweber21 Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments

    146   6:49am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says maxweber21 says ...$180K household income neighborhood regularly shop at GoodWill, DollarGeneral, Aldi, and the Farmer's Market. Spot the odd one out. Thanks!. Yep, was supposed to be $80K. typo. fixed. Thanks. http://www.usa.com/28278-nc-income-and-careers.htm

24. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    147   6:55am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   maxweber21 says Bigsby says maxweber21 says ...$180K household income neighborhood regularly shop at GoodWill, DollarGeneral, Aldi, and the Farmer's Market. Spot the odd one out. Thanks!. Yep, was supposed to be $80K. typo. fixed. Thanks. http://www.usa.com/28278-nc-income-and-careers.htm That wasn't actually what I was referring to.

25. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 248 threads 4,722 comments

    148   7:12am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Everything we think we know about the economy right now. Is only a symptom of bad economic policy from the FED. Change one, changes the other.

26. maxweber21 Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments

    149   7:18am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says maxweber21 says Bigsby says maxweber21 says ...$180K household income neighborhood regularly shop at GoodWill, DollarGeneral, Aldi, and the Farmer's Market. Spot the odd one out. Thanks!. Yep, was supposed to be $80K. typo. fixed. Thanks. http://www.usa.com/28278-nc-income-and-careers.htm That wasn't actually what I was referring to. Oh. Not sure I know which one is odd. Which one? The Farmer's Market here is price competitive. By no means is it a clear price winner unless you are trying to buy grassfed beef or other healthy products. For those, it slaughters the price of WholeFoods or Earth Fare. Aldi has best prices for some boxed goods. Dollar General has best prices for some clothes (e.g. socks), some foods (DollarTree is even better), paper products (paper towels, toilet paper), etc. You can spend up to twice as much on your weekly food bill. (I know, if times were really tough then people would use rags instead of paper towels. Of course times are not tough for most Americans yet. They are trending that way though.) $84K agerage HH income as of 2010: http://www.zipdatamaps.com/28278

27. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    150   7:24am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well, there's nothing bargain basement about the farmers' markets in the Monterey area.

28. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    151   7:37am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   maxweber21 says The retirees I personally know are NOT at all sitting on a cash pile. They are living on nearly the tightest budgets the ever have. This is true. 60% of boomers think they will have to work past the age of 70!!! Incredible, really.

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    152   7:47am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected   Goran_K says This is true. 60% of boomers think they will have to work past the age of 70!!! Incredible, really. Electing Republicans has consequences.

30. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    153   8:05am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Also, considering that the as far back as 1994, the Clinton/Greenspan combo staunchly and successfully opposed tougher regulation on derivatives which effectively proved to be a great catalyst for the housing bubble, I'd say stupidity crosses party lines.

31. mell Follow Befriend (5) 55 threads 1,315 comments Premium

    154   8:15am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says 've followed Schiff since 2009 and come to realize the guy is just an arrogant businessman. I called in 2010 into his business looking to put IRA money into gold. The person wouldn't talk to me unless I had 250k. 250K is often a standard minimum limit for hedge funds. Also 250K is really not that much considering it gets you a garage in the bay area and people have no problems bidding up their "dream home" into the millions because house prices can only go up.

32. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    155   8:33am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Truthfully your opinion that real estate is at massively inflated prices is dead wrong.

33. mell Follow Befriend (5) 55 threads 1,315 comments Premium

    156   8:57am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Truthfully your opinion that real estate is at massively inflated prices is dead wrong. The amount of new house owners defaulting does not seem to go well with that graph. You could argue that those are still ripple effects from the crisis, but I"m not buying it. While defaults have gone down, they will keep happening at a significant rate and could pick up again dramatically if rates rise.

34. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 753 threads 2,589 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    157   9:01am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Schiff is an idiot as far as his solutions are concerned. But it is obvious that the wealthy are buying houses and creating a bubble. Private equity is in on this. Schiff brags about being in the 1 percent, yet his 1 percent cronies are ruining America. House prices must decline to keep track with wages. Unless private equity wants to be in the landlord business for years and years, they are going to want to sell as house prices appreciate. They are creating the churn, instead of the no doc people, this time. They are driving up the prices this time. But the no doc folks were used by the wealthy last time. This time it is the rich club driving up house prices like they drive up oil prices in the futures market with speculation. Will Rogers said there should be a law against these people and speculation. That was 80 years ago and we are still waiting for the law.

35. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,008 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    158   9:01am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   mell says if rates rise. You mean "when rates rise". Momma only has so much free money in that purse. Even in today's shell game economics, there will be accountability. Wait for it...

36. mell Follow Befriend (5) 55 threads 1,315 comments Premium

    159   9:06am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   bgamall4 says Schiff brags about being in the 1 percent, yet his 1 percent cronies are ruining America. It takes two to to tango. If you look at last election, almost 100% voted for either Obama or Romney which is basically a continuation of the cheap credit policies benefiting those who already have huge leverage. The lambs keep bringing themselves to the slaughterhouse.

37. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    160   9:07am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   bgamall4 says House prices must decline to keep track with wages. Unless private equity wants to be in the landlord business for years and years This is one of the things I am most interested in. How long will these major firms be willing to be "landlords" renting out shelter in low-end neighborhoods in the Sacramento burbs. I've already seen smaller firms exit the market, but maybe these major firms have more metal to keep going (aka cash).

38. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 753 threads 2,589 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    161   9:14am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   mell says It takes two to to tango. If you look at last election, almost 100% voted for either Obama or Romney which is basically a continuation of the cheap credit policies benefiting those who already have huge leverage. The lambs keep bringing themselves to the slaughterhouse. But, Obama supports Dodd-Frank, which will slow the easy money no money down loans to the masses. Yes, there are the 3 percent loans. But Romney wanted the fetters taken off completely. And Romney wanted a massive housing bubble, and so did Ryan if you read up on him. Obama=lesser of two evils. Nothing more. Romney wanted a new cold war with Russia. Obama doesn't. Big difference there.

39. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    162   9:16am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   mell says The amount of new house owners defaulting does not seem to go well with that graph. You could argue that those are still ripple effects from the crisis, but I"m not buying it. While defaults have gone down, they will keep happening at a significant rate and could pick up again dramatically if rates rise. Yup I argue those are ripple effects of the crisis. Lots of people are still upside down in homes they refuse to give up. My bankruptcy practice is right in the middle of this as I get people who come in every day who are willing to sacrifice almost everything to keep a home they are $100,000 upside down on. Then there are those who would love to refinance but they are still in credit jail from a bankruptcy or foreclosure or just irresponsible borrowing. Our bubble was bush league anyway. If you want to see what might be in store for us, look at Canada:

40. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,546 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    163   9:19am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   There's nothing wrong with the housing affordability index. There is nothing involved with the calculation of this index that relies on NAR data other than price information that is confirmed independently by many other sources. Anyone who wants to challenge it as inaccurate should probably give a reason why. (like that's gonna happen)

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