If you listen to Schiff and buy what's he's saying, the policies of the Obama administration are making an already bad situation much worse, setting us up for calamity and the coming crash, whether in 2013 or 2014, or a bit further out, will be beyond anything we've seen recently.
Peter Schiff – The coming 2013 – 2014 U.S. crash will be worse than 2008
By HousingBoom Follow Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 6:15pm 14,117 views 203 comments
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bgamall4 says
He still doesn't have a clue though. Obama is still operating under the misguided principal that home prices must rise (probably the same mentality that made him a bubble buyer in 2005).
So he may be the 'lesser' of two evils, but his underlying policy is still totally misguided, and completely wrong for fixing the housing market.
Ron Paul had the best strategy for fixing the economy in recent memory, and early polls showed that he had the best chance of beating Obama (conversely, Romney has always been shown to be a loser against Obama in any opinion poll).
It's a shame that Ron Paul was basically silenced by the media and swept aside. He was the only one who had a clue during the national debates.
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Goran_K says
Ron Paul has some good ideas mixed in with some dreadful ideas. Libertarians believe in two failed ideas. One is they want racism to be a civil right, and some are just racist. Second, they believe the invisible hand of self interest will help society more than regulation. Turns out that in the housing bubble and crash that was proven false. Even Max Keiser thinks his libertarian friends are nuts for not wanting banking regulation.
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bgamall4 says
Not sure why you believe libertarians are racist.
On the second note, if the Banks had been forced to eat their own medicine, then the idea actually would have worked in practice. Just like any private sector business, if you build losses, there is a natural free market reaction to your actions; you go out of business. Unfortunately, Obama gave them a safety net, so of course they can operate like criminals in a deregulated environment.
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underwaterman says
That's actually what I am waiting for. Housing is so volatile right now that in one year you can have a 5% YOY gain, and the next a 7% YOY loss. These major firms are very performance oriented (I used to work directly face-to-face with them). If the market forces any sort of correction downward, I could see them exiting the market very quickly, and leaving the mom-and-pop speculators with the highest losses.
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Goran_K says
You are kidding me right? Schiff stated that a restaurant owner should have the right to refuse service based on race. That at least is a call for racism to be a civil right.
Rothbard was an out and out racist. He rejected sending the blacks back to Africa only because it would cost too much.
Oh, and Rand Paul opposed the civil rights act of 1964 until he got flack for his position. You don't know much about the real libertarians. Voluntary relationships is a fundamental assumption of their godless religion.
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You're taking the actions of individuals and applying it to an entire philosophy. Rush Limbaugh once said that "all criminals resemble Jesse Jackson". Rush Limbaugh claims to be a Christian.
Does that mean a core belief of Republicans and Christians is that black people are criminals? That's a ridiculous connection to make just like your assumption that all Libertarians are racist because of something Schiff said.
(also you took what Schiff said completely out of context, but we'll get to that later if you want to push the subject)
If you actually understood Libertarian doctrine, you would know that they genuinely see racism as a belief system that expresses itself only in the form of coercive government power. State-enforced discrimination is the only kind of discrimination. A libertarian by definition opposes discrimination because libertarians oppose the state. Racism is NOT a core belief of Libertarians. It works both ways, while they believe that the state should not enforce discrimination, they also believe that anti-discrimination movements like "affirmative action" should also be opposed (more of what Schiff was talking about).
Of course reactionary people often jump to conclusions about things they don't completely understand.
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I wrote an ebook about libertarianism. The concept of voluntary relationships is similar to Ayn Rand's philosophy.
Yes, the only racism these perverts see is quotas. Racism as a civil right is a core belief of libertarianism. Racism like that of Rothbard may not be. But libertarianism attracts a lot of racist misfits because it allows for racism to be a civil right.
If it isn't racist to do so it is wacko. Libertarianism is wacko. That is the conclusion I come up with in my ebook. I have too many examples of libertarian leaders proving their wackiness.
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Billybigrig says
This isn't a recommendation from the NAR. This is a graphical representation of what anyone with a brain knows is true.
The cost of buying a home in the United States as a function of wages, home prices, and interest rates are at historic lows.
Bitching about the NAR doesn't change this. When you take interest rates from 6% to 3%, the price someone can pay for a home almost doubles.
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bgamall4 says
It's not about quotas. Damn it, I hope you're kidding that you actually wrote a book about libertarians because you seem to misunderstand the very basics of the doctrine.
It's NOT about quotas. It IS about state enforced discrimination, and anti-discrimination. That is all. Anything else you have misunderstood on top is an addition to the doctrine that you have made in your own mind that doesn't exist. Ron Paul doesn't go around telling people to hate blacks and not do business with them. In fact one of his biggest supporting blocks was African Americans.
You yourself practice discrimination in your own life. Do you let pedophiles play with your kids? Do you want your family hanging out with gang members and drug dealers? No, you discriminate because you have a choice. What if the state enforced a quota that your neighborhood must allow at least 10% of the housing to be available for released pedophiles? I don't think you would really agree with that, and neither would libertarians.
Sure, some wacko could say "I don't want to serve blacks in my establishment", but that business person also gets the free market punishment of losing business from all black people, and those who sympathize with black people. They would soon go out of business because they tried to enact a faulty business model.
Conversely, saying someone should get into a top state school, even with lower scores than someone of a more represented race, to fill a quota, is a form of state enforced racism. The state is giving an opportunity to someone (and taking away one) simply based on the color of their skin and not merit.
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Goran_K says
The more you write the more you prove my case. I try to avoid racial discrimination, however, you have the right to practice it in PRIVATE. The libertarians want the ability to practice it in PUBLIC BUSINESS.
That is unlawful and it should stay that way.
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Billybigrig says
On top of that double the property tax too until the owner lives in that place.
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iwog says
Lies from NAR's leader in June 2008. Nice pumping back then by NAR. Buy Buy Buy or you will be priced out forever!
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iwog says
A History Of Lies By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors
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$350,000 @ 6% is a $2300 all-in (PITI etc) outgo.
At 3% this payment pays off a ~$400,000 purchase.
Alternatively, looking at PITI less the P, I get:
$350,000 @ 6% is a $2000/mo cost of ownership, and $2000 @ 3% can support ~$500,000's debt service.
This latter case requires principal repayments to transfer into solid equity that doesn't disappear if & when interest rates go back up or other macro changes that affect valuations.
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Billybigrig says
Don't take it personal if you don't get the above. Even the great Ben Bernacke has trouble connecting the relationship between interest rates and home prices. It really is a giant shell game. Following the ball, following the ball, can you guess where it is? Who is to blame? Over there! Look a puppy!
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/22/bernanke-denies-fed-rate-policy-caused-housing-bust/
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Thing is, there was a disconnect between Fed policy 2004-2006 and the housing market.
The Fed began raising interest rates in mid-2004, but the boom went on for another full year, and prices stabilized at the 2005 level for another year or so (the summer of 2006 was the beginning of the bust).
The Fed certainly caused the boom of 2002-2004. But the bubble of 2004-2006 was something else -- the suicide lending of teaser-rate 2 year ARMs, negative-am "pay option" loans, and outright fraud of people buying with no visible means of being able to pay other than future equity withdrawal.
THAT was the bubble of 2004-2006, not the Fed, and why the market crashed in 2007.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=d9j
shows the Fed fighting rising prices in 1999-2000, giving up in 2001, then letting their freak flag fly in 2002-2003.
The resulting tightening of 2006-2007 wasn't dramatic enough to cause the crash.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
That has nothing whatsoever to do with the validity of the affordability index.
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iwog says
It has everything to do with it. Once a liar always a liar. Personality traits are not fixable. You are born bad.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
You can calculate the affordability index without using any NAR data at all. You can use Case-Shiller data and come up with almost the exact same graph.
It's a function of wages, interest rates, and home prices. How can people be so blind to reality? You can easily find 3% mortgages now when 5 years ago they were 6%. You don't think this factors into affordability when making a home buying or renting decision????
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I remember David Lereah, NAR's former liar, come on CNBC every day saying real estate always goes up. When it softened he said, every day, that it would turn around in a few months. We would be turning the corner. Always turning the corner.
I used to laugh. He quit in disgrace. He predicted the housing bubble would go on for many years. It didn't. He even sold a boatload of books predicting these things that the crash disproved.
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bgamall4 says
The freedom to discriminate/disassociate is eroding fast. Private clubs are being bombarded with hate when they discriminate. Business owners advocating marriage to stay between man and woman only as their PRIVATE opinion are being told by crony politicians that they are not welcome in "their" city and zoning and other laws are used to prevent the business. I may not agree with their views but I think a business owner should be able to convert his business into a "private club" with member fees and discriminate however the see fit. You see any ugly bitchez at hooters? Any old grannies? Any gay men serving your chicken wings? Don't think so. Furthermore there are tons of armchair liberals/progressives that hate every homophobic soul out there but as soon as their daughter starts dating a black guy (if they are white or vice versa) or an affordable housing project is announced in their neighborhood or next to their kids school, then all the tolerance goes out of the window instantly. I'd rather have a slightly homophobic pal who is honest about it (and I would likely debate him) than one of those armchair good-doers. Also, just because somebody advocates something fairly extreme like Schiff advocating extreme freedom for the business owner doesn't mean they themselves are racist or support racism, it just means that some principle in their political views is so strong that they cannot advocate prohibiting freedoms that could be abused because it would directly collide with their principles. For example you could be an advocate for welfare although you know that at any given amount of time there will be X amount of people who totally abuse the system because the alternative of no safety net for those in real need seems worse to you.
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iwog says
Why are you even making this argument?
These guys are all talking in theoretical terms. They're making armchair economic projections and ignoring the reality on the ground.
Most people buy homes because they want to live in them. They'll stay for an average of 17 years (according to what I found googling it), and won't really be that concerned about resale.
The fact of the matter is that in most parts of the US, it's now cheaper to buy than to rent as long as you can qualify for the mortgage. It has been a very long time since the last time this was true.
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Kevin says
I suspect you're way off the mark with that figure.
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17 years is extremely off the mark, by over a decade.
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iwog says
I would think this is a good thing. if everyone looked at housing as an investment and once there investment was losing money, dump it, the banks would be in a far worse position, requiring another round or two of bailout to keep them from collapsing and dragging our economy down with them.
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Yes, I hope those people keep putting their money into an over priced home they are barely hanging onto. Debt servitude should teach them a good lesson over the next 10 years or so.
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Goran_K says
Ownership rates are parabolic. 40% of people are at least 15 years at the same place and 40% are less than 3 years. The average amongst people who aren't just 'house hopping' is 17 years.
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Kevin says
Why don't you just admit you were wrong on your original point instead of posting evasive garbage like that?
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Libertarians believe in discrimination by the individual. Discrimination is the core concept of liberty. It is when the individual chooses among all options and rejects the other options for any reason, even if ignorantly based on racial criteria.
@bgamall4 may like the government giving us but one option and forcing it on us, or face oppression, but I don't. @bgamall4 is a hypocrite. He discriminates every day. When he bought his new car, you can bet he chose what color it was. Perhaps he picked a black car. That means he rejected every other color. He picked his car based solely on its color and liked that choice. But with his utopian world, it would be government only allowing him to buy a white car, since black absorbs heat and causes global warming. @bgamall4 didn't allow the government to pick his spouse. He chose her and discriminated against every other woman. @bgamall4 picked his friends and discriminated against all others. He chooses who he lets inside of his living room. Discrimination! And when bgamall4 goes to his favored religious institution, you can bet he would have an issue if some muslims came in and started wailing in the aisle or a pack of satanists started burning a cross on stage. In fact, I bet bgamall4 would call the cops and have them arrested. Discrimination. And when bgamall4 registered to vote, I am pretty sure he discriminated against the other political party.
See, the issue is that we should all be allowed to discriminate. As long as we don't physically harm another it is liberty. Pretending that humans can all love one another and just sing Kumbayah doesn't work. It creates tension. We need to get to a point where we can each tolerate anothers opinion. Yeah, that opinion may be arrogant or ignorant. While Libertarians think a private business should be allowed to turn away a customer for any reason, it doesn't mean they are racists. In fact, they would be the first ones to have an issue with state sanctioned racism. They stand against state segregation as well as affirmative action. Knowing both are force upon all individuals. They don't want government telling blacks they can't vote, but would allow a private college to reject them as long as they get no government funding. Just because one believes in liberty doesn't mean they think ones choice is righteous over another. It doesn't mean because that choice is availble they would partake of it. Many Libertarians want to legalize drugs and prostitution, though they may be married for 30 years and never even had a cup of coffee. They know that choice should be up to the indivdual to choose. If the individual makes a bad choice then it is personal responsibility which then comes into play. Government shouldn't be forcing that individual to make a choice. They should only be there to protect another individual when the first individual neglected to take personal responsibility for harm done.
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@Cheeseus Sonofdog, thank you for your post. You obviously understand libertarianism.
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The libertarian who is happily engaged expounding his political philosophy in the full glory of his convictions is almost sure to be brought short by one unfailing gambit of the statist. As the libertarian is denouncing public education or the Post Office, or refers to taxation as legalized robbery, the statist invariably challenges. "Well, then are you an anarchist?" The libertarian is reduced to sputtering "No, no, of course I'm not an anarchist." "Well, then, what governmental measures do you favor? What type of taxes do you wish to impose?" The statist has irretrievably gained the offensive, and, having no answer to the first question, the libertarian finds himself surrendering his case.
http://mises.org/daily/2801
In the 1950s and still relevant today.
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DukeLaw says
Of course not, the government has a role in the Libertarian world; to ensure non-coercion, and protect against violence.
AFAIK, these are not precepts of an anarchist.
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Goran_K says
then why are you currently shopping for a house?
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1218856
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1218790
34 Olivehurst, Irvine, CA 92602
By Goran_K Follow (2) Thu, 15 Nov 2012, 9:19am 91 views 0 comments
In Irvine CA 92614 Watch (1) Share Quote Permalink Like (1) Dislike
Invite an expert to fact-check this
Part of the Northpark neighborhood of Irvine, a well-to-do, gated community built in the late 90s-early 2000s.
Drove through the gate, the neighborhood is really nice. The HOA cost (nearly $300) keep everything in tip-top shape; grass is trimmed, trees aren't over grown, and the streets are sparkling. blah blah...
59 Sparrowhawk Irvine, CA 92604
By Goran_K Follow (2) Tue, 13 Nov 2012, 9:12pm 306 views 11 comments
In Irvine CA 92604 Watch (1) Share Quote Permalink Like (1) Dislike
Invite an expert to fact-check this
This house is listed at $524,900, REO.
What attracted me to it was that it was a single story home, nearly 2,200sqft in a desirable area (Yale Loop in Irvine).
Walking up to the front door, it was obvious this home had some "deferred maintenance". The garage door had wood trim pieces literally hanging on by a single nail, there were two pieces of wood on the driveway. The grass was dead, and the windows looked like they needed to be sealed. Not a great first impression...blah
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Goran_K's avatar is all over the "Open House" section. he's been actively looking to buy and posting reviews in that section for a while now. how could anyone not know?
what i would like to know is that why is he CURRENTLY shopping for a house while telling others that it's not a good time to buy ("over priced"), there's an collapse of the economy coming, and that "debt is slavery" and all that stuffs?
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Goran_K says
Not just that, also police, military, fire-fighters, state-parks/museums and hospitals and many more are on the list of things that are OK to be run by the government (with private competition in some areas but not all)
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It's called window shopping. Did you even read what I said about the houses in my reviews that you posted?
Buying either of them was the furthest thing from my mind.
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mell says
Exactly. Some schools even do favor public assistance for the destitute and poor (food and shelter, not $729,000 FHA loans).
I think the fact that some people equate libertarianism with some sick form of "left anarchism" shows how little people actually know what libertarianism is all about as a philosophy.
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Goran_K says
Goran_K says
LIES.
it appears to me that you went there with the intention of BUYING if it was a good deal. turned out it wasn't. but that doesn't change the fact that you have been ACTIVELY LOOKING TO PURCHASE A HOME.
if you are looking to buy a house (even only if you got a good deal), why are you telling people that "debt is slavery" and that there's an impending economic collapse and homes are currently overpriced?
do you want everyone to stop buying so prices would drop so you would be able to jump in and buy for a very cheap price?
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who would be concerned with cracks in the floor of the house if they had no interest in buying the house whatsoever?
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Billybigrig says
Try the ignore function,if it gets too much. It works really well.