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Peter Schiff – The coming 2013 – 2014 U.S. crash will be worse than 2008


By HousingBoom   Follow   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:15am PST   23,227 views   242 comments   Watch (2)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

http://riehlworldview.com/2012/07/video-peter-schiff-the-coming-2013-2014-us-crash-will-be-worse-than-2008-and-europe.html

If you listen to Schiff and buy what's he's saying, the policies of the Obama administration are making an already bad situation much worse, setting us up for calamity and the coming crash, whether in 2013 or 2014, or a bit further out, will be beyond anything we've seen recently.

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Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:19am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 1

he's been saying that every year so eventually he will be right.

broken clock...

mell   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 10:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 2

Mark D says

he's been saying that every year so eventually he will be right.

broken clock...

That's not quite true - he nailed the first crash within a very close range. Granted, after that he has been a bit overeager in forecasting the next "crash" or bond crisis, but it looks like we are on track. Also the economy has been in the toilet forever now and there are no signs that it is getting better - latest job and consumer spending numbers as well es economic indices are ugly. It's gonna be a choppy December unless they come to a bipartisan solution that actually addresses the deficit very fast.

Goran_K   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:02am PST   Share   Quote   Like (7)   Dislike (1)     Comment 3

I don't know. A lot of what he's saying makes sense.

- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

Instead of attacking him as a person, why don't you guys actually debate the ideas he presents? The theoy he puts forth seems sound and logical (not that our government plays by rules of logic).

Those factors he brings up don't say anything to me besides crash, but I'm sure Roberto has another opinion with his heavily invested portfolio in Phoenix real estate. :)

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:10am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 4

Goran_K says

I don't know. A lot of what he's saying makes sense.

- Weak employment figures

- Very weak hiring forecast

- Lower than expected earnings reports

- Dollar being devalued

- Fiscal cliff coming

- Taxes rising

Instead of attacking him as a person, why don't you guys actually debate the ideas he presents? The theoy he puts forth seems sound and logical (not that our government plays by rules of logic).

Those factors he brings up don't say anything to me besides crash, but I'm sure Roberto has another opinion with his heavily invested portfolio in Phoenix real estate. :)

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

cvos   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:26pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

"Linus has been almost as accurate predicting the great pumkin!"
this is an awesome statement

http://youtu.be/xiSIQzwIPzQ

edit: how do you embed videos here?

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 12:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 6

Peter Schiff has simply been saying that an imminent crash is coming EVERY YEAR for as long as I can remember.

Yes, he will predict it "correctly" for any given crash if you simply find what he was saying the previous year!

He swore up and down that there would be no stock recovery, no housing recovery, and that we were going to see massive inflation.

He's just a doom and gloomer, not someone who is actually good at forecasting economic trends.

I've debated his 'ideas' for years. He was right in 2006 because he was saying the same thing in 2006 that he has been saying for the last 15 years: "The US is doomed because Americans and their government are morons. Wah wah wah I don't want to pay taxes".

mell   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:16pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 7

Kevin says

He swore up and down that there would be no stock recovery, no housing recovery, and that we were going to see massive inflation.

He's just a doom and gloomer, not someone who is actually good at forecasting economic trends.

I've debated his 'ideas' for years. He was right in 2006 because he was saying the same thing in 2006 that he has been saying for the last 15 years: "The US is doomed because Americans and their government are morons. Wah wah wah I don't want to pay taxes".

We have massive inflation (I call anything 2% and over substantial and 3% and over massive as it kills joe sixpack compounded over the years while his wages lag) and the economy has been looking doomy and gloomy for years, 1 in 7 Americans on food-stamps. I haven't researched his actual performance for his clients and while it may not have been optima for a couple of years, the long term strategy of investing in precious metals and asian markets (other than china and japan) seems sound and, compared to the countless other hedge funds that actually blew up he is still in business and seemingly doing well.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:28pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 8

mell says

We have massive inflation

Just because you say it doesn't make it true. Inflation is not 'massive', even if you go by the shadowstats numbers.

Schiff's investment record is mixed to negative. He makes far more money from his non investment activities than he ever made running EPC. His EPC clients lost their asses in 2008 / 2009 but he got paid management fees anyway.

Schiff is great at making money for himself. So is Suze Orman. Neither of them are providing advice that will actually help you.

If you want to make money from investing, follow people with a long-term proven track record like Warren Buffet, not people trying to sell an image.

mell   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 1:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 9

Kevin says

If you want to make money from investing, follow people with a long-term proven track record like Warren Buffet, not people trying to sell an image.

I think it is generally a bad idea to follow anybody - esp. if you trade stocks and I have my own realm. I read about some dissatisfied EPC clients but I am not sure to what extend and if they still would maintain their stance should they have stayed with EPC. First rule of a hedge fund is to not blow up by hedging and then to make decent returns for its clients in the long run (averaged). Buffet has been around forever and IMO trades mostly on insider knowledge and influence lately, not that hard once you've become the 'oracle' and - more important - the president's buddy. But yeah, he started out small and his overall track record is def impressive. But as we all know, past performance does not guarantee future performance.

HousingBoom   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 2:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (6)   Dislike (3)     Comment 10

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff. Nobody is perfect and trying to time an event is difficult for all economists. Everyone was calling gold a bubble for many years and now it's over 1,700 (was over 1,900). Schiff has been telling everyone to buy gold for the longest time.

We all know the economy is going to hit the fan within a couple of years. All this money printing and deficit spending is not going to have a soft landing.

Goran_K   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 2:04pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (5)   Dislike (1)     Comment 11

Mark D says

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

So debate his ideas.

Why are you personally attacking him instead of the point he's making in the video?

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:
- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

Why do you think housing won't crash?

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 2:21pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 12

Goran_K says

Mark D says

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

So debate his ideas.

Why are you personally attacking him instead of the point he's making in the video?

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:

- Weak employment figures

- Very weak hiring forecast

- Lower than expected earnings reports

- Dollar being devalued

- Fiscal cliff coming

- Taxes rising

Why do you think housing won't crash?

personally attacked? when?

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

so you believe him? did you buy any gold? can we see some purchase receipts? no?

ah that's right you doubt him too. just like everyone here! understand!

housing ALWAYS crashes, if you give it enough time...see what i mean?

bmwman91   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 3:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 13

I don't think that anyone on here actually thinks that the synthetic boom that the Fed and the government is creating will last, or end well. The thing is that nobody knows how long this game of musical chairs will go on for. I am pretty sure that they can keep the old gravy train running for a lot longer than many bears think. So what if it is a bad idea and bad policy? Nobody can do shit about it. Most of America is made up of house owners or people that have some stake in housing, and as such most of America wants the bubble to return.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 4:06pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (3)     Comment 14

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

bmwman91   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 4:14pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

Kevin says

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

Possible too. The numbers just don't make any damn sense, but I guess that being the world's reserve currency does allow more leeway in printing cash to pay our debts. We won't really know for another 10 years or so when a really big percentage of baby boomers start trying to retire on under-funded pensions and insolvent SS/medicare.

Given the fact that the interest on our debt alone outstrips tax revenue, I'd say that something needs to change. As of now, I am pretty sure that we won't see tax increases or spending cuts. The can will be kicked down the road. Maybe we'll get lucky and everyone will just quietly accept a lower standard of living and we won't have some sort of big bad financial event. Nobody knows for sure. Based just on the numbers though, things look pretty hairy. It'll be fun to see what sort of financial wizardry is unleashed to "fix" our problems.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 4:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

bmwman91 says

Kevin says

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

Possible too. The numbers just don't make any damn sense, but I guess that being the world's reserve currency does allow more leeway in printing cash to pay our debts. We won't really know for another 10 years or so when a really big percentage of baby boomers start trying to retire on under-funded pensions and insolvent SS/medicare.

But a million other things could be different then.

Unless you've figured out a good way to take advantage of the negative stuff, and can time it, just being negative all the time does nothing but put you further and further behind financially. I guess you could sell books like some people but that's pretty hard.

If you believe what Schiff is saying, put your money where your mouth is. Short stocks. Buy gold. Invest in canned meat and handguns. Whatever.

If you don't, buy a house, buy some stocks, maybe take a vacation and enjoy life.

Most of the doom and gloomers around here just seem to be people who have no money and are trying to justify their inability to make any financial investments. They're saying the same things today that they were saying when I first created my account 3 and a half years ago, despite the whole world having changed so rapidly.

bmwman91   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 4:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

I agree with Schiff's general message, but as some have said, a broken clock is right twice a day. I am suspicious of anyone that starts claiming timelines for this stuff. Something is going to have to happen to settle the budget, but the can can be kicked down the road for longer than most perma-bears think.

Being bearish on the economy certainly does not guarantee that one will be behind financially. You just invest in different things, generally things like your own skills and education. I stay out of stocks and RE because I see it as the exact same thing as going to Las Vegas and plunking cash down on red. I do max out 401k contributions since my employer matches handsomely, but I have stuff allocated in large funds that are professionally managed because I have better things to do with my time than manage money. Living life, as you say, is top priority. My wife and I stash away almost 70% of our monthly net income, after 401k contributions. When we want vacations, toys, whatever, we pay cash. When we decide to get a house, we will be putting at least 50% down. People call having cash savings and no debt foolish because of inflation. The fact that this mentality is so rampant is all the reason I need to stay out of the "smart" investments. I COULD do what some on here are doing and buy up residential RE to rent out, but that would be a full time job. I already have one that pays a hell of a lot more than that, and knowing that I will not be able to maintain my income to the same age that someone with a bunch of house rentals will, I stash most of it away since I'll need it later in life. Same net effect, different approach.

Cash might be getting boned by inflation right now, but equities are too risky too, in my opinion. The market is heavily manipulated, and over-valued in my opinion. I make enough money right now that I don't really give a shit anyway. I could quit working and live off of my cash for the next 5-7 years if I wanted to with no changes to my quality of life. That's not part of the plan though.

I'd love to have a house (actually, just a garage). Woodworking, metalworking, speaker building, engine builds, beer brewing, etc would all be much easier to do in a house. Not having shared walls is sort of a big deal given my interest in building audio equipment too. But, I look around this place that I grew up and I refuse to be a part of the insanity that is rampant here again. Boom and bust, same shit different day. I'll continue hoarding cash and make my move when the time is right. The right time is certainly not now, and probably not for another 5 years with the way things are picking up. I have enough family in the area, with full machine shops and wood shops, that I can keep renting on the cheap while getting to partake in all of my hobbies while spending quality time with those that I care about. The rest of my generation can run around with their pants on fire having money-spending battles to buy overvalued houses over the next few years, and I'll either pick one up during the next bust or move elsewhere. My wife and I weren't ready to make a move 12 months ago and we obviously missed the bottom here. I fully intend to be self-employed in the next 10 years since that's a type of investment that is directly impacted by my own hard work and effort, unlike stocks and an overpriced house, so I have that to focus on anyway.

Being bearish about the economy does not mean that one doesn't have a good time in life. Some bears are miserable bitches, but so are lots of bulls that are constantly "managing their money."

Goran_K   befriend   ignore   Wed, 21 Nov 2012, 11:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (4)   Dislike (1)     Comment 18

Mark D says

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

That's not debating his ideas. That's simply being dismissive.

See, as much as you accuse others of being"doomers", you can't even properly address one single point of Schiff's theory in an intelligent manner.

What does that make you?

HousingBoom   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 1:50am PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 19

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

iwog   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 2:00am PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (3)     Comment 20

HousingBoom says

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

Did Schiff tell you to sell in 2011 before silver took a 35% dead drop?

HousingBoom   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 2:09am PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 21

iwog says

HousingBoom says

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

Did Schiff tell you to sell in 2011 before silver took a 35% dead drop?

lol. It was at $49 before it corrected. I'm still up over 100% as of today. Schiff is not a trader. Silver has been my first and only investment so far. Not very many people can say that they are up over 100%. Thank you Mr. Schiff

Robber Baron Elite Scum   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 2:34am PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 22

HousingBoom says

lol. It was at $49 before it corrected. I'm still up over 100% as of today. Schiff is not a trader. Silver has been my first and only investment so far. Not very many people can say that they are up over 100%. Thank you Mr. Schiff

I'm also a silver investor.

+1 for not being a dumb sheep holding worthless fiat currency.

StillLooking   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 12:26pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 23

robertoaribas says

2002 full of shiff says dow below 2000... yeah... interest through the roof...

how well did any investor listening to this dipstick in 2002 do?

I did very well with gold and silver. WTF ar you talking about?

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 1:31pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 24

Billybigrig says

Even if he is off by one year lets say, there is still a lot risk to hang on until that last year.

What if he's off by 20? What if he's just totally wrong like he has been in every prediction except for one?

zesta   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 3:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 25

Goran_K says

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:
- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

In 2006 we had:

1. Low unemployment and it was trending lower as we approached 2007
2. Higher than expected earnings, with stocks trending higher as we approached 2007
3. Historically low taxes

2006 was also the peak for C/S.

Is the time to buy when everything is peaches and rosy?

taxee   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 3:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

Greenspan handed out plums to get people to plant carrots. Now benjamin bunny harvests their carrots while they get food stamps. Maybe he will use the carrots to motivate some smart new rabbits to do something interesting. Or feed the old rabbits so they don't off him. Most likely the carrots are rotting while he hoards them. I think they euphemistically refer to it as giving them 'the business cycle'.

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 4:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

Goran_K says

Mark D says

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

That's not debating his ideas. That's simply being dismissive.

See, as much as you accuse others of being"doomers", you can't even properly address one single point of Schiff's theory in an intelligent manner.

What does that make you?

doesn't look like you understood what was said. lets see some receipts first and we'll talk.

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 4:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 28

HousingBoom says

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

you forgot to mention that he advised people to buy gold at $1900 as well.

HousingBoom   befriend