Uh oh, House Equity Loans Make Comeback


By Patrick   Follow   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 10:37am   3,364 views   41 comments
In Menlo Park CA 94025   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-26/home-equity-loans-make-comeback-fueling-u-s-spending-mortgages.html

After six years of declines, lending for so-called Helocs will rise 30 percent to $79.6 billion in 2012, the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to the economics research unit of Moodys Corp. Originations next year will jump another 31 percent to $104 billion, it projected.

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  1. Patrick


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    2   10:55am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    They simply did not suffer enough for their sins the previous time, so they have no aversion to doing it again. After all, many people were able to simply walk away from their mortgages, leaving their debts with the banks, who then turned around and got money from the government and the Federal Reserve to cover them.

    I think our current "fiscal cliff" is in part a result of that, along with radically low taxes on the very rich. It's kind of interesting to see how long this can go on.

  2. bmwman91


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    3   10:56am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (6)   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    Ugh. It's only been 5 years people. This country and the credit lemmings looking to hang themselves again, make me sick.

    People have had 5 years to learn why they should do EXACTLY what they are doing. Most people can see that the music is going to stop sooner or later. They are going to milk the HELOCs as hard as they can while the window for it is open. We all know that there are NO consequences, or at least no real ones. You can't be arrested, you will have a free roof over your head for 2+ years, you can't be held accountable for the money you owe if you file for bankruptcy and you can't even be taxed on your "winnings." Honest to God, we are the fucking morons for not taking advantage of this, and instead letting our cash sit and get eaten by inflation. People are living it up while they can. Gimme gimme gimme, fuck everyone, gimme gimme gimme.

    As I have said before, if I knew what I know now 4-6 years ago, I would have leveraged myself into the biggest fucking McMansion that I could have and not made a single goddamn payment. I could have saved up a ton of cash, and then gotten into an FHA-financed house (borrowing the max of $729k in Santa Clara county) in the summer of 2011, made some payments until now, HELOC'ed the fuck out of the property and stopped paying for any of it...once again living for free until probably 2015.

    I think that many of us assume that the people doing this are a lot dumber than they actually are. No, I think that many of them know exactly what they doing because they can see that it is a chance to live big now, and at worst go back to living like it is 2001 when it is over. IF the mortgage debt forgiveness tax is reinstated in 2013, which I doubt it will, things might change a little. It looks unlikely. I can't remember...how frequently can one file for bankruptcy? HELOCs are recourse loans, so I am pretty sure that you need to do a little (and I mean LITTLE) more than walk away.

  3. FortWayne


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    4   11:04am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think banks are more prudent now with those things, because they get to eat the losses on loans that go bad.

  4. Mobi


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    5   11:19am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    People have had 5 years to learn why they should do EXACTLY what they are doing. Most people can see that the music is going to stop sooner or later. They are going to milk the HELOCs as hard as they can while the window for it is open.

    This. As a nation, we borrowed without the intention of giving it back. See our government debt, do you believe they will pay back eventually? I don't.

  5. FunTime


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    6   11:32am Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike  

    Mobi says

    This. As a nation, we borrowed without the intention of giving it back. See our government debt, do you believe they will pay back eventually? I don't.

    I've not seen evidence most people understand the situation that completely. Most people go into such a huge loan with the awareness of attending a magic show. When it all turnes out to be tricks, they might just walk away but that wasn't their intention and they feel sad as a consequence.

    But they'll go to another magic show if you put one on!

  6. taxee


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    7   12:53pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Pawns in a game. The real fortunes are being made using 'the economy' as the excuse to borrow/create money and funnel it into private hands while taxes are at historic lows. The feeding frenzy continues.

  7. Bellingham Bill


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    8   1:01pm Mon 26 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    FunTime says

    But they'll go to another magic show if you put one on!

    you, sir, win one internet!

  8. Kevin


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    9   10:15am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I took out a HELOC as an emergency financial backup. It seems safer than credit cards. There isn't any cost to keep it open, even though I've never end it.

    My bank said that 90% of HELOCs are used fr debt consolidation these days. That seems much more reasonable yo me than using it to buy a boat.

  9. dublin hillz


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    10   10:20am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Sometimes, I have a very hard time understanding american way of thinking. Shouldn't the whole point be to eliminate the debt so that one is only paying property tax and HOA or property tax and hazard insurance? Isn't heloc just another form of debt? Why the heck would people increase more debt just so they could go and buy more bullshit clothes at the mall when their closets are already stuffed with merchandise or go out to restaurants when they can cook the same shit at home for 10 times cheaper? Why not just delay some of this "gratification" if it can be called that and actually pay off the house?

  10. bob2356


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    11   10:33am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    SFace says

    That's not stupid, it's smart. The second part is what you do with the equity. My approach is to buy assets and leave a portion for opportunity. In 2005, I applied/received a 225K HELOC with rates prime -1.25%. That shit cost 1.50% now which was used to buy preferred shares of a company I know well (highly capital intensive but insanely profitble business) that yielded 9-12%a year for the past six years.

    You are saying you took a 225k heloc in 2005 on a house you had low equity on already and after the greatest housing crash in history you aren't under water? Really? An increase in equity? No drop in house value?

    SFace says

    Especially since interest cost net of deduction runs at a rate less than inflation

    I really don't understand this one. Maybe on the heloc part but you can't heloc the entire mortgage and you can only deduct heloc interest up to 100k. Mortgages are front end loaded with interest. The first few years payments are almost all interest. Every time you refi the mortgage you start the process over again. So how do you get your 90% interest early mortgage payment to net less than inflation?

  11. errc


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    12   10:42am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Over the years, I learned that the best way to own property is the have the banks own as much of it to secure the best interest possible. Say 70% bank-30% you. Especially since interest cost net of deduction runs at a rate less than inflation.

    Here's the fatal flaw in your model. Your time component. You operate under the built in assumption that interest rates only ever go down, and likely that house values only ever go up. What happens if the next 30 years is an inverse of the past 30 years? How's your model work with rising interest rates and falling house prices?

  12. tatupu70


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    13   10:45am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    errc says

    How's your model work with rising interest rates and falling house prices?

    Historically, interest rates have basically zero correlation with nominal house prices. If anything, nominal prices rise with rising rates. This is obviously due to inflation.

    You might as well ask how his model works after an alien lands in Washington.

  13. errc


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    14   10:53am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    errc says

    How's your model work with rising interest rates and falling house prices?

    Historically, interest rates have basically zero correlation with nominal house prices. If anything, nominal prices rise with rising rates. This is obviously due to inflation.

    You might as well ask how his model works after an alien lands in Washington.

    Well do you have any historical references that allow for an apples to apples comparison to our current situation?

    I can't really find a point of reference to compare todays world to similar instances in history. How did we exit ZIRP the last time after 30 years of falling rates? Did we have similar imbalances in our population pyramid threatening a halt to perpetual growth? Were people in generally so heavily indebted? Younger folks with school loans, older/everyone else with cc debts and mortgage debts and auto debts etc.? Does any of that matter?

  14. EBGuy


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    15   11:00am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Maybe on the heloc part but you can't heloc the entire mortgage and you can only deduct heloc interest up to 100k.
    If you're investing over that amount, you can just move it to Form 4952 Investment Interest Expense Deduction.

  15. tatupu70


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    16   11:03am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    errc says

    Well do you have any historical references that allow for an apples to apples comparison to our current situation?

    Obviously things are different now than they were in 2000 just like how things were different in 2000 than in 1990 and so on. Just wanted to point out that rising interest rates and falling home prices would be historically unusual.

  16. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    17   11:03am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    You mean we can get this sub-zero gigantic fridge for only $14/mth for 30 years. Lets get 2!

  17. errc


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    18   11:04am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    SFace says

    errc says

    Here's the fatal flaw in your model. Your time component. You operate under the built in assumption that interest rates only ever go down, and likely that house values only ever go up. What happens if the next 30 years is an inverse of the past 30 years? How's your model work with rising interest rates and falling house prices?

    I didn't say it was flawless. The upside far exceeds the downside. That is why you take the money out and your risk is limited to 30%, 20% whatever and let the bank have 70%. There is no clawback.

    If you can think about the downside, what about the upside? Would you risk 300K for 3M-10M? All I can lose is 300K, my upside is unlimited.

    Think of your finance like it is a business.

    I think I have a pretty decent understanding of how leverage works, and what risk entails.

    How is it possible to have virtually unlimited potential upside with such small risk? That sounds too good to be true.

    Ill admit, I likely overthink things like this. That's the problem with having come equipped from the manufacturer with a brain that autonomously wanders and wonders over the implications of actions. History has taught me, that when something seems too good to be true, it usually is.

  18. errc


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    19   11:08am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    errc says

    Well do you have any historical references that allow for an apples to apples comparison to our current situation?

    Obviously things are different now than they were in 2000 just like how things were different in 2000 than in 1990 and so on. Just wanted to point out that rising interest rates and falling home prices would be historically unusual.

    And this is giving me deja vu tatupa. So long as we're musing about potential outcomes of the future,,,,,

    Imagine a scenario where you woke up tomm and there was no place on the planet to borrow money to buy housing for anything less than 10%?

    What affect would that have on house prices and affordability metrics?

  19. dublin hillz


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    20   11:10am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    It would be nice if it were possible to organize a movement where people prepay the principal and live like poor college students for 7 years while they do it. Literally, outside of necessities throw everything into mortgage prepayments. Lets see how "fit" these businesses really are - lets witness who survives this consumer revolt induced recession. Those businesses that do will truly thrive several years later when consumer is truly deleveraged.

  20. bmwman91


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    21   11:10am Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    SFace, I think that you are a very small minority in the HELOC world. If most people know how to USE debt, rather than BE USED by it, we might be in a very different situation economically. Thanks for the thoughtful explanations. It is good to know, and I might try to put it to use on a smaller scale someday.

  21. ELC


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    22   1:28pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    My bank said that 90% of HELOCs are used fr debt consolidation these days.

    Just keep in mind your credit is constantly being monitored by your creditors either by hard or usually soft enquiry. If you overuse your credit these days it will be reduced in a FLASH. One creditor reduces your credit line which changes your ratio of available credit and leads to another creditor pulling back and it all falls like dominos, and so does your credit score. It's called Universal Default.

  22. Patrick


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    23   1:52pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    You don't have to accept my assumptions. The calculator is extremely useful for testing various assumptions, all of the ones you mention.

  23. FunTime


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    24   4:20pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    If most people know how to USE debt, rather than BE USED by it, we might be in a very different situation economically.

    I think I hear someone laughing off the bow of their yacht.

  24. bmwman91


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    25   4:46pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    FunTime says

    I think I hear someone laughing off the bow of their yacht.

    I'm on a BOAT motherf*cker!

    (reference to an SNL sketch)

    I'd be laughing too. Most people get used BY debt, to the advantage of those that give it out.

  25. FunTime


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    26   5:29pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Most people get used BY debt, to the advantage of those that give it out.

    I've taken to thinking it's not most, but all. How else do I explain the income of a banker, or financier, with little education and fairly common people skills?

    Maybe it is just most, and that is still the difference between making thousands a year and making millions.

  26. FunTime


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    27   5:40pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SFace says

    One of the thing I was vocal about is how useless Patrick's rent/buy calculator is. It's too one dimensional and applying it would be disastrous.

    Unless, of course, you find the scientific method useful. You know, that method where you test hypotheses and learn? That method has a pretty great track record for predicting future results. It's what led to this situation where we can type at each other about how a bunch of smart people like us have incomes several orders of magnitude less than the people who simply hold our money for us.

  27. errc


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    28   6:35pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    bmwman91 says

    SFace, I think that you are a very small minority in the HELOC world. If most people know how to USE debt, rather than BE USED by it, we might be in a very different situation economically. Thanks for the thoughtful explanations. It is good to know, and I might try to put it to use on a smaller scale someday.

    Well, we get to decide if we want to be the 1%er or the 99%er. Apparently, SFace doesn't fit the profile of the 99%er. :)

    That is false. Unless you have no problem sacrificing your sense of self respect and whoring yourself out in someone elses game. But hey, some people really flourish in the role of a whore,,,,,

  28. errc


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    29   7:45pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    You guys are just being dishonest, whether or not its intentional or not is besides the point. You're not transferring risk to the lender. You are just fine with using the government as a weapn against the working class folks. The lender is not taking on any risk, they have already shifted all risk to the taxpayer, and your ilk seems to have no qualms with participating in the graft.
    Enjoy it while you can, because it won't last!

  29. errc


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    30   7:57pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    There's no shame in making money

    Of course not, and if laying on your back and spreading your legs for a living leaves you sleeping well and can still look yourself in the mirror, well then more power to you.

    I do take issue with some folks means of "making money", but that's a personal problem lol. As you say, if you can't beat um, join um. Fuck all to what's right and what's wrong. Some people go to church on sundays, some people vote democrat, to make themselves feel ok with their actions. I strive to do what's right in the first place,,,,,

  30. errc


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    31   8:23pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I don't need to be reminded. My parents have no money, no retiremnet, no healthcare, they are renters and my dad is currently unemployed.

    Not sure what you mean by "not sure what were doing is wrong". It sounds like you question whether or not its right though, but hey, plenty of people seem to easily stomach using the government as a weapon against their fellow man

  31. errc


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    32   8:57pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    And you took it out of context. Its all in your head

    As you say, if you can't beat um, join um. Fuck all to what's right and what's wrong.

    I take issue with this cavalier attitude people take towards being trapped within a system (of corruption). Fuck all to what's right or wrong, I'm not free to decide what's right or wrong, the system decides for me. :)

    Personally, that's as anti american a mindset as someone can have, but that's just a personal problem. I'm going to bed, good luck eman

  32. Mark D


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    33   12:51am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    do you consider transferring student loan debts to personal debts, then filing for bankruptcy and passing the costs to the creditors who in turn pass the costs to other consumers, the right thing to do??

    this "American mindset" is so confusing.

  33. tatupu70


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    34   4:28am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    errc says

    Imagine a scenario where you woke up tomm and there was no place on the planet to borrow money to buy housing for anything less than 10%?
    What affect would that have on house prices and affordability metrics?

    Of course it would be horrible for house prices and affordability.

    Imagine now what the probability of that happening is? I'd say it's about the same as aliens landing in Washington--thus my previous statement.

  34. dublin hillz


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    35   9:12am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    When someone takes out a heloc or does a cash-out refi, isn't that just basically getting cash that you have to pay back? Seems to me like it's a form of debt, no? It's definitely not like getting free money in the bank account. So why is it being discussed and treated as some sort of gravy train?

  35. bmwman91


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    36   9:55am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    When someone takes out a heloc or does a cash-out refi, isn't that just basically getting cash that you have to pay back? Seems to me like it's a form of debt, no? It's definitely not like getting free money in the bank account. So why is it being discussed and treated as some sort of gravy train?

    As long as you operate on the assumption that the house never goes DOWN in value, you can always sell it to pay back the loans. Some call it gambling, some call it investing. I think that it just depends on the perspective of the participant. If the house does go down in value, you can always just walk away and file bankruptcy. SFace or E-Man can clarify, but I think that the bank cannot go after the money if it was invested in certain things. People that use the money for boats and cars are the dumbasses because those can be repossessed and then they are left with nothing at all.

  36. Call it Crazy


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    37   10:26am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    When someone takes out a heloc or does a cash-out refi, isn't that just basically getting cash that you have to pay back? Seems to me like it's a form of debt, no? It's definitely not like getting free money in the bank account. So why is it being discussed and treated as some sort of gravy train?

    It use to have to be paid back, but not in today's world.... The current trend is to cash out refi or take a massive HELOC and stop paying.....

    When you finally get kicked out with the foreclosure, you take all the extracted cash from the refinancing plus the money you saved by not paying for years and you go buy a nice house in the hills with CASH!! No recourse, just mortgage forgiveness!!

    What a country!!

  37. ELC


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    38   12:19pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    It's time to repay your parents for their sacrifices.

    Parents should consider the children they bring into this world a life time committment, not have them in the hopes they will be taken care of in their old age. What a loser mentality! Your parents and other relatives obviously didn't plan for their future well enough. That's THEIR bad. They're lucky to have someone like you. Unless I was fabulously wealthy I'd save my money for my wife and the children I brought into the world and let everyone else eat cat food if they refuse to figure a way to make it in this world. IMO all these mooches in your life are laughing at you behind your back at best and resenting you at worst.

  38. Mark D


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    39   12:20pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    bmwman91 says

    I think that the bank cannot go after the money if it was invested in certain things.

    i hear in CA trustees can go after your IRA if it involves in questionable activities and there is a limit on how much you can put in your 401K per year.

  39. ELC


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    40   6:29am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    What can I say? We just don't share the same family value. Helping comes from the heart. You shouldn't wait for your parents to ask.
    Good luck to your parents and your in-law parents.

    Don't get me wrong. I've given plenty of money to friends and family when they really needed it. "Having has more to do with giving than receiving." It's just not to do it on a continuing basis where they become dependant on you while cutting into your own ability to save. Same goes with Government aid. They get dependant on the money then resent the Goverment for keeping them down. Then when the Government will eventually be forced to make cuts it will be trajedy.

  40. BayArea


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    41   3:07pm Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    ELC says

    E-man says

    It's time to repay your parents for their sacrifices.

    Parents should consider the children they bring into this world a life time committment, not have them in the hopes they will be taken care of in their old age. What a loser mentality! Your parents and other relatives obviously didn't plan for their future well enough. That's THEIR bad. They're lucky to have someone like you. Unless I was fabulously wealthy I'd save my money for my wife and the children I brought into the world and let everyone else eat cat food if they refuse to figure a way to make it in this world. IMO all these mooches in your life are laughing at you behind your back at best and resenting you at worst.

    What can I say? We just don't share the same family value. Helping comes from the heart. You shouldn't wait for your parents to ask.

    Good luck to your parents and your in-law parents.

    I know how each of you voted in the election.

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