« previous   housing   next »

Metropolitan Phoenix expected to continue seeing rise in home prices


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 26 Nov 2012, 11:36pm PST   6,181 views   65 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/60f67b62c70b46b7afe08739233eb9e7/AZ--Home-Prices-Metro-Phoenix

PHOENIX — Real estate experts expect home prices in metropolitan Phoenix to continue to rise in the coming years.

The Phoenix area's median home price has jumped by 35 percent during the past year, though price gains in recent months have been smaller than earlier this year, The Arizona Republic reported.

Several experts are looking for metro Phoenix home prices to climb more than 10 percent annually during the next three years.

Matt Widdows, CEO of Arizona's largest residential-real-estate brokerage, HomeSmart, is bullish on a further rebound in home prices.

"I would say that in the next five to seven years, we will see (home) prices back to levels we saw in 2005," he said. "Many (Phoenix-area) homes dropped to one-third of their value in 2005, and I have no doubt that we will be right back to those levels."

« First     « Previous     Comments 26-65 of 65     Last »

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 4:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

Your house prices nationally are not grossly inflated. In fact, they are more than affordable in many parts of the country. But of course, you choose to completely ignore that glaringly obvious fact.

LOL. Thanks for the belly laugh.

What do you find so amusing? How do houses rank now in terms of affordability? Inflation-adjusted prices? The prices nationwide have long since left the bubble. Prices in the BA are still high, but the BA isn't the whole country last I checked.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 4:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 27

Yup says

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6001-S-47th-St-Phoenix-AZ-85042/7550862_zpid/

This poor investor is about to drop his rent again. 26 days on the market asking 8% below "market rents". It is the holidays, they will go at least another month with no renter, in a market that is saturated with rentals. They will drop their rent again or give more concessions. I see they are already allowing small pets, soon packs of pitbulls will be allowed, as long as that rent gets paid. This investor is now stuck in the worst time of year to rent out the shit shack, and will be collecting ever decreasing rents for years. That or this investor will not rent this shit shack for the next 4 months in hopes for spring or summer demand. Poor investor.

And if he does manage to rent it for $875...? If he put 20% down, then his monthly nut for a $45,000 loan (say at 4%) and 1.25% property tax is a breathtaking $277 + whatever his insurance would be. Hmm...

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 6:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

Yup says

Bigsby says

And if he does manage to rent it for $875...? If he put 20% down, then his monthly nut for a $45,000 loan (say at 4%) and 1.25% property tax is a breathtaking $277 + whatever his insurance would be. Hmm...

If and when would be valid questions. I assume all cash no loan. The point is he has no renter in a flooded market during the worst time of the year to get a renter. In other words rents are coming down. Rents are coming down due to the very cash investor that are buying up these homes. When you do not have a mortgage to service you can keep dropping your rent, and you will. The investor will still brag that they are making a 9% return, and next year 7% and the following year 4%...... The glut of rentals and investors virtually guarantee lower rents and with that lower prices in the future.

I think the point is more that he could slash his asking rental price and still make a very nice return indeed. Look at what his return is at $875! He'd make an absolute killing.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 7:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

Yup says

Bigsby says

Look at what his return is at $875! He'd make an absolute killing.

Except for the fact that he is currently making 0.

And it's been a whole 27 days. Wow. Reduce the rent by a $100 and see what happens. Spend $277 and get $775. Seriously, what is your point? What are you trying to argue?

uomo_senza_nome   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 7:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

Very surprised AF hasnt commented on this thread yet.

On his behalf:

When the whole federal government has thrown everything it and the Wall Street psychopaths can muster to keep the bubble inflated, the cat may even blink momentarily.

The cat is certainly blinking.

errc, good points on lower housing prices although you have to consider a wider spectrum (as Mark D rightly suggests) and you will start to see conflicting classes of people. Bankers want higher house prices to get their balance sheets in order, borrowers who have already borrowed for their house prefer rising home prices. Our very own beloved Central bank Chairman Bernanke has said that rising home prices increases consumer confidence and more spending.

It is clear who the Government and the Central bank is concerned about. It is the debtor class. They completely ignore the rentier class. Oh, I forgot -- the banks ARE a part of the rentier class.

lostand confused   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 7:17pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

Mark D says

why do you want prices to go down so the people who are underwater will be in even deeper? why do you want people to lose equity in the homes they have recently bought with the money they had saved up all these years? why do you want investors like iwog and roberto to lose money? simply because they worked harder and were better with money?
this is a two way street.

Because it is a govt pimped bubble and things are not in a natural equilibrium. I myself am not very happy with the bubble. I don't have any debt and haven't had any for a few years now. Decent investments and yet balk at signing up for 600-800k mortgage /price tag for the kind of house I want.

Especially when you look at other places and what you get for your money. It is one thing if like errc said wages were going up or currency is collapsing, then it makes sense. But nothing is happening, except housing mania number 2. I will continue to sit it out-though now that I am getting settled , it is not just me anymore and that is why I am looking again at lower cost states.

Now Phoenix is different, even with these prices, you can still get a good house for a decent price. But not here in coastal CA and they don't pay a good enough wage here to make a difference for the housing prices.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 9:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (3)   Dislike (1)     Comment 32

Yup says

If you don't get my point, at this point, it is because you don't want to get my point.

As far as I can tell, your point is that there is an apartment in a crappy location that is currently available for rent.

How you can draw any conclusions from that 1 piece of data is beyond ridiculous.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 9:38pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

Yup says

Bigsby says

Seriously, what is your point? What are you trying to argue?

If you don't get my point, at this point, it is because you don't want to get my point.

I realize that it is only one property, but I could link hundreds........

Well what is your point? The house could be rented out for half of what they are asking and the owner would still be hugely ahead. The only conclusion to be drawn from what you posted is that if that house rents for anywhere near the asking figure (as in within 500 odd dollars), then $60,000 for it is a raging bargain.

uomo_senza_nome   befriend   ignore   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 11:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 34

The irrationality of the human mind applies equally to both bullishness and bearishness.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 9:37am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

Bigsby says

What do you find so amusing? How do houses rank now in terms of affordability? Inflation-adjusted prices? The prices nationwide have long since left the bubble. Prices in the BA are still high, but the BA isn't the whole country last I checked.

Prices are still too high everywhere. Free money is the cause and bank foreclosure manipulation. All at the expense of the tax payer. Houses depreciate in reality, they only stay stable or appreciated in a manipulated market. Wood rots, nails rust, piping deteriorates, wires go brittle, paint fades, carpet wears, any moving part in windows, appliances, doors wear. We are still in a manipulated market. We can't learn how to complete internationally for our wealth, so we create fictitious domestic wealth by pumping up a depreciating asset. It works until it doesn't. All I got to say. Good luck to you all.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 9:54am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Prices are still too high everywhere. Free money is the cause and bank foreclosure manipulation. All at the expense of the tax payer. Houses depreciate in reality, they only stay stable or appreciated in a manipulated market. Wood rots, nails rust, piping deteriorates, wires go brittle, paint fades, carpet wears, any moving part in windows, appliances, doors wear. We are still in a manipulated market. We can't learn how to complete internationally for our wealth, so we create fictitious domestic wealth by pumping up a depreciating asset. It works until it doesn't. All I got to say. Good luck to you all.

They aren't too high EVERYWHERE unless you think house prices have always been too high.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 10:18am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

Yup says

26 days on the market asking 8% below "market rents".

Let's see, paid $60K, maybe, maybe paid in another $10K, and wants top dollar for rent.

Well, you might be right, and he may drop the rent to $750, but his returns are still very impressive.

Hey!? You know what? if you bought the place instead of that guy what would your mortgage payment look like?

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 11:12am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

Bigsby says

They aren't too high EVERYWHERE unless you think house prices have always been too high.

The junk that is selling low in areas like Atlanta, Phoenix, Detroit is the majority of junk. You might be able to squeak out another 3-5 years if you are lucky, but in reality they need to be torn down. They look cheap now, but I'm sure in the majority of cases the owner has to inject a crap load of money to keep them going. I have many friends who tried to kick start a buy, fix, and then rent or sell. None of them talk about their efforts with much love. Just my experiences.

By far the best way to get wealthy in this country is to be born to the right parents. ;)

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 11:52am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

Yup says

robertoaribas says

they are going to drop... because you want them to drop! very good "thinking" there, mr mensa!

robertoaribas says

I think you see the problem. that shitty shack needs to be listed for $750 or less so by comparison. the 1 bathroom alone is a huge knock, the nature of being on the busiest road in south phoenix, they might have a hell of a time even pulling out of the driveway at rush hour... the fact that it is small as hell.... Simply put, the owner is being too greedy.

BUT even if they rent it for $600 a month, they still make a fantasic return on their cash.

So even after you admit that rents will drop, you say it will drop because I want them too.......amazing!

I fail to see where he said that.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 11:54am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

Yup says

I am not saying that the investor made a bad investment. I am saying that with all the cash buyers that have no mortgage they can and will drop their rents. If rents drop many of these investors will not be happy with their rate of return and the work that is required of a landlord. If you can get 10% from buying the S&P 500 and you are getting 12% with a rental, I will tell you that it is much easier to just buy the S&P and miss the 2%.

And what is the rate of return on the example you posted if it rents for say $700 rather than the listed $875.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 12:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 41

Yup says

Bigsby says

Well what is your point? The house could be rented out for half of what they are asking and the owner would still be hugely ahead. The only conclusion to be drawn from what you posted is that if that house rents for anywhere near the asking figure (as in within 500 odd dollars), then $60,000 for it is a raging bargain.

Are you reading impaired?

MY POINT IS RENTS ARE GOING TO DROP IN PHOENIX.

Do you get my point now?

In your opinion. And so what if they do? Based on the example you posted, they could drop massively and the landlord would still be making an extremely good return on his investment. Do you get my point now?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 12:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 42

Yup says

Bigsby says

I fail to see where he said that.

At least you can admit having zero reading comprehension.

Er, no. You, however, completely failed to understand what he was saying.

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 1:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 43

Yup = Darrel/war/liarwatch
time to ignore

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 1:52pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 44

lostand confused says

Because it is a govt pimped bubble and things are not in a natural equilibrium. I myself am not very happy with the bubble. I don't have any debt and haven't had any for a few years now. Decent investments and yet balk at signing up for 600-800k mortgage /price tag for the kind of house I want.

my questions were for errr alone. i don't have a problem with people who don't want to buy. i disagree with his line of thinking that rooting for higher prices automatically equates evil. it would easily backfire.

marcus   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 2:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

iwog says

Several experts are looking for metro Phoenix home prices to climb more than 10 percent annually during the next three years.

This sounds like a sell signal.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 3:47pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 46

Yup says

Bigsby says

And so what if they do?

Most investors have some expectation for what kind of return they will get. If that return is much lower than they thought many investors sell. So what if they do? Do I really need to explain?

And the point is that it would have to utterly collapse in the example you gave. A PITI of less than $300 and a rental asking price of $875 - are you seriously not seeing the room for profit in that even with a massive decrease in the rental price? The only thing that this points to is that the house appears to be much better value as a purchase than renting. As for whether the rents are dropping on it, well, as we don't know what it used to rent for...

Yup says

Bigsby says

I fail to see where he said that.

REALLY?

Yes, really. You're clearly reading into it what you want it to mean rather than what he meant.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 3:54pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 47

Yup says

robertoaribas says

Yup is a dumbass, and deserves to be called one

I have operated 3 different nuclear power plants and the largest power system in the western united states. What about you? Oh yeah thats right you are a teacher...You know what they say about teachers. Those who can do, those that can't teach. I do, you teach.

With that comment, I rather think you've proved his point.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 48

Yup says

HAHA you lied to everyone here HAHAHA. You posted this and you were buying HAHAHA. You are a liar, a teacher and a rat!

Wow, a liar, a rat AND a teacher.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:27pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

Yup says

Yes I see the profit and never made an arguement that the purchase was not profitable.

So what was your point? You can't say that rents are dropping because a price is listed below a Zillow estimate.

Yup says

Going by Zillow it shows $954/month as equivalent rent. I know that Zillow is not always correct though in my limited experience they have been close. They are only asking $875 and even liar roberto says they need to ask $750 or less.

In my experience, Zillow is often inaccurate.

Yup says

Ok that is what he posted and you think I am reading into when I say rents are going to drop in Phoenix?

Oh FFS, one example where you don't know what it rented for, what it will rent for or how accurate the Zillow estimate is, and where Roberto thinks it might go for $750 is
a. not proof that rents are falling in Phoenix.
b. not evidence that Roberto agrees with your premise.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 50

Yup says

I am not saying that at any of these rent prices the owner is not making money, he is. What I am saying is that owners in Phoenix are going to all be lowering their rents in competion for a limited number of renters and a massive inventory of cash buyer rentals, who can afford to drop the rent and still make lots of money.

Who knows, but so what if they did? It still makes those kind of purchases an absolute bargain. Here you have a property with a PITI of less than $300 and a rental price of up to 3 times more. Rather a lot of room there. You were implying that this landlord was in trouble. Is he fuck. He has so much room to maneuver that it is almost comical.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:33pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 51

Yup says

Bigsby says

Oh FFS, one example where you don't know what it rented for, what it will rent for or how accurate the Zillow estimate is, and where Roberto thinks it might go for $750 is
a. not proof that rents are falling in Phoenix.
b. not evidence that Roberto agrees with your premise.

Whatever you say roberto

Grow up.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:40pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

Yup says

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28233-N-Superior-Rd-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/71697430_zpid/

Another example this place is asking off the zillow chart low for rent

Give it a rest. It's $47 below a Zillow estimate. So fucking what.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 6:17pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 53

Yup says

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1120-E-Country-Crossing-Way-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/2125598367_zpid/

$895 asking Zillow rent $1206 25% discount. Happy renting Phoenix

What's a Zillow rent?

Bigsby   befriend