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Metropolitan Phoenix expected to continue seeing rise in home prices


By iwog   Follow   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 7:36am   5,158 views   97 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/60f67b62c70b46b7afe08739233eb9e7/AZ--Home-Prices-Metro-Phoenix

PHOENIX — Real estate experts expect home prices in metropolitan Phoenix to continue to rise in the coming years.

The Phoenix area's median home price has jumped by 35 percent during the past year, though price gains in recent months have been smaller than earlier this year, The Arizona Republic reported.

Several experts are looking for metro Phoenix home prices to climb more than 10 percent annually during the next three years.

Matt Widdows, CEO of Arizona's largest residential-real-estate brokerage, HomeSmart, is bullish on a further rebound in home prices.

"I would say that in the next five to seven years, we will see (home) prices back to levels we saw in 2005," he said. "Many (Phoenix-area) homes dropped to one-third of their value in 2005, and I have no doubt that we will be right back to those levels."

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  1. E-man


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    58   9:51pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Yup says

    I do, you teach, suck it!

    yeah, real mature. typical pathetic engineer... that's why engineers can't get laid!

    Dude. That's not correct. I bet BMWman and I get laid quite often. LOL!

    One size doesn't fit all. LOL!!!

  2. E-man


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    59   9:52pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    You guys are freaking hilarious sometimes. That's why I love this forum. :)

  3. Mark D


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    60   9:52pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    Because it is a govt pimped bubble and things are not in a natural equilibrium. I myself am not very happy with the bubble. I don't have any debt and haven't had any for a few years now. Decent investments and yet balk at signing up for 600-800k mortgage /price tag for the kind of house I want.

    my questions were for errr alone. i don't have a problem with people who don't want to buy. i disagree with his line of thinking that rooting for higher prices automatically equates evil. it would easily backfire.

  4. robertoaribas


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    61   10:02pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    You and your current sex partner?

    I can see from your perspective, how that might look like the case... But no, that would be my pet golden retriever. For you, telling the difference between a pet dog and a booty call might be difficult I guess!

  5. marcus


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    62   10:05pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Several experts are looking for metro Phoenix home prices to climb more than 10 percent annually during the next three years.

    This sounds like a sell signal.

  6. robertoaribas


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    63   10:15pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    So lets see robertobubblearibas teaches in an overpriced college fueled by a debt bubble, and invests in housing fueled by a debt bubble.

    I help provide millions of people with electricity. Which if turned off would have dire consequences in very short order.

    Hmmmm I wonder who is doing the more critical job for society?

    well, during my research years, i helped make bombs that can kill everybody!!!!! [ok, not entirely true, I worked more in the guidance and communication end, but still...]

    you are really trying to scrape together something that doesn't exist!!!!

    By all means, you go do your critical job for society! I'll sleep in, ride my bicycle on a desert trail to my job, go to the school gym by 2pm and do some yoga... When you take a day off from your cricitcally important job, and go to visit a nearby college, have a peak at a yoga class!!!!

    {by the way, I teach at a very reasonably priced community college now! they pay me more than ASU did, and I don't have to do any research!!!!}

  7. robertoaribas


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    64   10:25pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yun, you really are a work... If you weren't so stupid, you would see that ALL of my decisions are driven by the math of the market.... graph phoenix prices and see when I was a bear (prices dropped) and when I was a bull (prices bottomed)

    as if the ensuing 15% drop in prices AND interest rates from 5 to 3.5% didn't make any difference to the math.... NOT to mention my daily sudying of supply and demand...

    Keep calling me names, you anonymous online coward.

  8. robertoaribas


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    65   10:31pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Again nice blog Robert

    Oct 2010 I am a bear on housing
    Nov 2010 QE2 will not help house prices
    21 months no posts
    Aug 2012 BULL MARKET bitchez and I started buying in Mar 2011
    Sep 2012 I already have 13 homes bitchez sorry if you followed my pathetic blog......

    so, those who contacted me through the blog and followed my advice made bank.. Why the hell should I give my valuable info away for free, so a lowlife turd like you could take it????

    NOW I'll tell you what I think, because I am in contract to buy my last house.... And that's it. I've made my millions, now go to sleep so you can run that nuclear power plant!!!!!!

    I need you rested and thinking clearly, so you don't blow up Palo Verde and ruin Phoenix!!!!

    [I'll stay on posting, I don't have to get up early and do a critical job!!!!]

  9. robertoaribas


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    66   10:44pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    how much are you betting? I'll take that bet! IF this price runup continues, I will sell. but here is why I am not today:
    1. At our current rate, we will END all scheduled foreclosures in six to nine months. I don't expect that to happen, but clearly their influence on the market is going to drop in the very near future.
    2. I'd give it another year to clear out the short sales...
    3. I'd give it another year for prices to increase after that. Appraisers are stupid after all, and it will take some time for the dust to settle, AND appraisals to catch up with our market reality.
    4. I can afford to gamble. the rent alone is reason enough for all my properties.

    But, in case you don't believe my logic, you can actually see what I am doing by searching my name on

    www.maricopa.gov. ALL of my transactions will appear, my name is not that common.

    So, let's see: we have my track record, AND my actual data, versus your anonymous weakness.... ok!

  10. robertoaribas


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    67   10:51pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    seriously, I give you the public records to search my purchases sales, and you respond by calling me a liar?? you are a pathetic little bitch!!!!!!

    the internet gives you the place to act like this, In real life, you run form someone like me crying like the baby you are!!!!

  11. robertoaribas


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    68   10:58pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yun, when did you sell? when did you buy? Oh! you completley bolloxed the market and your life!!!

    Sorry about your foreclosure, but at least you have your "cricitally important" job to pay the daily bills! Keep it up! here's to you, i'll be sure to drink a toast on a tropical beach to you real soon!

  12. robertoaribas


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    69   11:03pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    robertoaribas says

    you are a pathetic little bitch!!!!!!

    Now now, I don't post on here lies about home prices continuing to drop while I am out buying up 13 properties at the same time.

    Who is the little lying bitch?

    the lying bitch would be you. The $8000 credit for first time buyers ended, prices plummeted over the next 5 months, THEN I bought.

    Do you somehow equate buying five months after I said don't buy to lying? exactly how many months was I supposed to wait in your peabrain?

    Lets face it: you are a bitter piece of shit. I won, you lost. PERIOD.

    Now, go do your critical job. I am going to retire in a few more short years with my state funded retirement, PLUS my rental income and do whatever I please for the rest of my life; You will continue to work your critically important job... :-)

  13. robertoaribas


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    70   11:12pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    My analysis was cogent and clear. Though that account no longer exists, you can find it from the title on zillow.com

    http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread/When-to-buy-a-home-for-the-thinkers-in-the-room/46686/

    "when to buy for the thinkers in the room"

    You see, I have always been honest about the logic of my decisions. But enough about me, tell me about your foreclosure. tell me how your wife left, and your life suxs. Maybe I can help you!

  14. robertoaribas


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    71   11:20pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yeah, I wasn't buying in June of 2010... we had another six months before signs showed up of a bottom, when I bought... So prices did exactly as I predicted, and dropped for the next half a year!

    so what is your point? except to show that I was a bear PRECISELY when it was time to be a bear, and became a bull PRECISELY when it became time to be a bull?
    If you weren't so stupid, you'd follow the math that led to exactly these timing decisions....

    In fact, here is the deed of my VERY FIRST purchase after the bubble...
    half a year later...

    http://156.42.40.50/UnOfficialDocs/pdf/20101076304.pdf

    so once again, all your digging is serving to prove, is what a genius I am, and what a dipshit you are!

    [nice quick delete of that post, since it showed you as wrong as usual... I said don't buy.. and I didn't buy.... six months later, I started buying!]

  15. robertoaribas


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    72   11:25pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    and actually, you pathetic MF, here is my post on patrick that I was buying, exactly when I started buying:

    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=579064

    now everyone can see what a worthless scum you are. I have ALWAYS been completely honest on here!

    If you had any actual worth as a human, you would apologize, or at least delete that account and never come back!

  16. robertoaribas


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    73   11:28pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    so recap: when I said don't buy, I wasn't buying.

    as soon as I started buying, I posted the deals on here even before they closed.

    so how does this work? fuck you forever!! i will now block you, and you can do as you wish. You don't deserve another post from me, because my posts are actually worth money to those that follow them, and you are a loser.

  17. Bigsby


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    74   11:47pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    And so what if they do?

    Most investors have some expectation for what kind of return they will get. If that return is much lower than they thought many investors sell. So what if they do? Do I really need to explain?

    And the point is that it would have to utterly collapse in the example you gave. A PITI of less than $300 and a rental asking price of $875 - are you seriously not seeing the room for profit in that even with a massive decrease in the rental price? The only thing that this points to is that the house appears to be much better value as a purchase than renting. As for whether the rents are dropping on it, well, as we don't know what it used to rent for...

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    I fail to see where he said that.

    REALLY?

    Yes, really. You're clearly reading into it what you want it to mean rather than what he meant.

  18. Bigsby


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    75   11:54pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Yup says

    robertoaribas says

    Yup is a dumbass, and deserves to be called one

    I have operated 3 different nuclear power plants and the largest power system in the western united states. What about you? Oh yeah thats right you are a teacher...You know what they say about teachers. Those who can do, those that can't teach. I do, you teach.

    With that comment, I rather think you've proved his point.

  19. Bigsby


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    76   12:22am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    HAHA you lied to everyone here HAHAHA. You posted this and you were buying HAHAHA. You are a liar, a teacher and a rat!

    Wow, a liar, a rat AND a teacher.

  20. Bigsby


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    77   12:27am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Yes I see the profit and never made an arguement that the purchase was not profitable.

    So what was your point? You can't say that rents are dropping because a price is listed below a Zillow estimate.

    Yup says

    Going by Zillow it shows $954/month as equivalent rent. I know that Zillow is not always correct though in my limited experience they have been close. They are only asking $875 and even liar roberto says they need to ask $750 or less.

    In my experience, Zillow is often inaccurate.

    Yup says

    Ok that is what he posted and you think I am reading into when I say rents are going to drop in Phoenix?

    Oh FFS, one example where you don't know what it rented for, what it will rent for or how accurate the Zillow estimate is, and where Roberto thinks it might go for $750 is
    a. not proof that rents are falling in Phoenix.
    b. not evidence that Roberto agrees with your premise.

  21. robertoaribas


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    78   12:29am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    rat, teacher... (actually professor)
    your move azzhole, checkmate in 1!

  22. Bigsby


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    79   12:32am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    I am not saying that at any of these rent prices the owner is not making money, he is. What I am saying is that owners in Phoenix are going to all be lowering their rents in competion for a limited number of renters and a massive inventory of cash buyer rentals, who can afford to drop the rent and still make lots of money.

    Who knows, but so what if they did? It still makes those kind of purchases an absolute bargain. Here you have a property with a PITI of less than $300 and a rental price of up to 3 times more. Rather a lot of room there. You were implying that this landlord was in trouble. Is he fuck. He has so much room to maneuver that it is almost comical.

  23. Bigsby


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    80   12:33am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    Oh FFS, one example where you don't know what it rented for, what it will rent for or how accurate the Zillow estimate is, and where Roberto thinks it might go for $750 is
    a. not proof that rents are falling in Phoenix.
    b. not evidence that Roberto agrees with your premise.

    Whatever you say roberto

    Grow up.

  24. Bigsby


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    81   12:40am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28233-N-Superior-Rd-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/71697430_zpid/

    Another example this place is asking off the zillow chart low for rent

    Give it a rest. It's $47 below a Zillow estimate. So fucking what.

  25. Bigsby


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    82   2:17am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1120-E-Country-Crossing-Way-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/2125598367_zpid/

    $895 asking Zillow rent $1206 25% discount. Happy renting Phoenix

    What's a Zillow rent?

  26. Bigsby


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    83   2:22am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    Yup says

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28233-N-Superior-Rd-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/71697430_zpid/

    Another example this place is asking off the zillow chart low for rent

    Give it a rest. It's $47 below a Zillow estimate. So fucking what.

    Look at the chart below the estimate $880 is the low on the chart. They are asking $795 an almost 10% drop in rent NOT INSIGNIFICANT!

    Oh FFS, give it a rest. So asking rents don't match Zillow estimates, whoop-de-doo. Why is it of so much concern to you that you'd trawl through Zillow finding rents that dont't match their estimate? It's sad and pointless. It doesn't matter what the estimate is. The only concern to a landlord is what his income is in comparison to his PITI. You started this nonsense by screaming blue murder over the fact that someone had a small discount on a Zillow price but completely ignored that his PITI was a third of that amount. It's just laughable what you are doing - you're just embarrassing yourself. And as for starting another thread accusing Roberto of being a liar just because you got in a huff with him...

  27. Bigsby


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    84   2:25am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    Yup says

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1120-E-Country-Crossing-Way-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/2125598367_zpid/

    $895 asking Zillow rent $1206 25% discount. Happy renting Phoenix

    What's a Zillow rent?

    From Zillow "A Rent Zestimate is Zillow's estimated monthly rental price, computed using a proprietary formula. It is a starting point in determining the monthly rental price for a specific property."

    God, I know what it is. It's not a rent though, is it? It's an estimate.

  28. Bigsby


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    85   2:49am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    I do not agree. I believe that investors have expectations. If you invested and expected 10% return and a year in you are down to 7% you just might take your profits and run.

    And yet the example you used to start your petty digs at Roberto was of a house with an asking rental of $875 and a PITI less than $300. What % return is that?
    Yup says

    Do you get that when a whole bunch of cash investors are buying low cost rentals thinking that they are going to make a killing, that when they start to compete for renters they will drop their rents because they can and will still make money even at much lower rents?

    Wow, so they will still make money at much lower rents (if or when that happens). Doesn't that run contrary to your screaming that they'll be DECIMATED? Seriously, I just don't get what you are doing. These people are buying cheap properties and renting them for far more than PITI. Even if the rents fall dramatically, people like Roberto will still be easily covering their PITI. Lucky them.

  29. Bigsby


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    86   2:54am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    God, I know what it is. It's not a rent though, is it? It's an estimate.

    You asked a question like you didn't know am I supposed to read your Fing mind? Why do you minimize the information that you don't like? Getting historic rental price info online is next to impossible. Zillow has some data and you go nope not gonna use it, its not rent.....WTF /shrug?????

    God, it was bloody obvious. And what do you mean 'why do I minimize the information I don't like?' A Zillow estimate is not rent. It's a bloody estimate. I'm not minimizing anything except your reliance on Zillow. As I keep saying and am getting unbelievably tired of repeating, the only issue is what the property actually rents for compared to PITI. You and I don't know whether the price the landlord finally gets represents a rise or a fall in rent because it has nothing to do with the Zillow estimate and everything to do with what the previous tenant was paying.

  30. Bigsby


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    87   2:55am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    I get that you don't get it. That is fine.

    And I get that you don't get it. That too is fine.

  31. Bigsby


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    88   3:08am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    the only issue is what the property actually rents for compared to PITI.

    DUDE I am talking about falling rents which is completely applicable with the zillow estimates of rent. The zillow estimate looks at the local market to come up with the estimate. If local landlords are offering below the zillow estimate RENTS ARE DROPPING.

    You are talking about making money which they can do even if rents are falling. WTF I KNOW THAT.

    If you know that they'll still make money, then why are you screaming that they'll be decimated? And just because the asking rents YOU list are below Zillow estimates does not mean that rents are falling as I keep pointing out. They might well be, but you are not demonstrating that. Just post up a chart of yearly/quarterly rental rates in the Phoenix area. It's simple. Zillow estimates are just that, estimates. And a few examples from thousands demonstrates nothing except you cherry picking some examples to fit your argument.
    Look, presumably you had some purpose in trying to paint a picture of rapidly falling rents in Phoenix, but from reading this thread, it would appear that that purpose was to have a dig at Roberto. If that makes you happy...

  32. Bigsby


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    89   3:11am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    JC professor lol pathetic MF you are and boy does it make you angry. I actually do something useful on this planet and you are a useless POS.

    This is what you were posting earlier. That is pathetic. He's a teacher. My wife is a university professor. If you don't think teaching is an extremely important profession, then you are a schmuck.

  33. Bigsby


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    90   3:16am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    I am glad robertotheliar blocked me. He wont see how totally F'd he is going to be when the rental cash buyer market Fing collapses. Oh and way before that the cash buyer/cash out refi fools will be DECIMATED! Those with skin in the game, all cash buyers will feast on the cash out refi fools.

    I have no idea because a handful of Zillow estimates that are higher than asking rents demonstrates nothing. What if the asking rents are higher than current ACTUAL rents? Anyway, the obvious answer given the differences between PITI and rents is that yes rents will probably fall because if they don't, then anyone with enough spare cash in Phoenix should take it out of the bank and stocks and stick it straight into RE. They'd be an idiot not to.

  34. Bigsby


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    91   3:27am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    And a few examples from thousands demonstrates nothing except you cherry picking some examples to fit your argument.

    I did not cherry pick. Rents will be dropping in Phoenix in my opinion.

    Fine, but did you really have to post all the shite and insults that you served up in this thread just because you think rents will fall in Phoenix? Seems to say rather a lot more about you than Roberto. I mean seriously, what was all that guff you were saying about how important your job is and how unimportant teaching is? Utterly laughable.

  35. Bigsby


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    92   3:28am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    Anyway, the obvious answer given the differences between PITI and rents is that yes rents will probably fall because if they don't, then anyone with enough spare cash in Phoenix should take it out of the bank and stocks and stick it straight into RE. They'd be an idiot not to.

    Look at that we agree :-)

    I suspect that you and I would agree on very little.

  36. Bigsby


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    93   3:47am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    I suspect that you and I would agree on very little.

    I bet we both agree that living in California is way better than living in Phoenix.......

    I don't know having never lived in Phoenix or even visited it. And there are plenty of shitholes in California...

  37. robertoaribas


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    94   6:50am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Yup says

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1120-E-Country-Crossing-Way-San-Tan-Valley-AZ-85143/2125598367_zpid/

    $895 asking Zillow rent $1206 25% discount. Happy renting Phoenix

    What's a Zillow rent?

    that is like 50 miles away from where dipstick was talking about!!! I've lived here for 20 years, and that is so far out I don't even know where it is!!!!

    Hey stop the presses: a zillow estimate might be wrong! bingo that proves all rents will drop by 100%!!!!!

  38. robertoaribas


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    95   6:54am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Yup says

    Bigsby says

    I suspect that you and I would agree on very little.

    I bet we both agree that living in California is way better than living in Phoenix.......

    I don't know having never lived in Phoenix or even visited it. And there are plenty of shitholes in California...

  39. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    96   2:27pm Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    The junk that is selling low in areas like Atlanta, Phoenix, Detroit is the majority of junk.

    you don't have a clue what you are talking about. MY HOME, bought just over a year ago, is 2300 square feet, 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths, 2 car garage and a pool in a spectacular neighborhood, for $230,000.... My mortgage is $1147 a month, and $260 goes to principal paydown... Is that the "junk in phoenix selling" you mean?

    Here are some pics of a home I bought for $80,000 1800 square feet in a gated community...

    Looks like lipstick on a pig to me. You can punch your way out of the wall in case of emergency, that must count for something positive. $230K is not chump change also. At the medium salary in the US, that is decades of savings. All for something that 6 people take 3 weeks to build. Stupid stuff all around.

  40. robertoaribas


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    97   6:47pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    Looks like lipstick on a pig to me.

    you would know, you've clearly been up close and personal with more pigs than me!

    that pig in the picture is rented for $1100 a month. hoa is 100, tax 800 a year, insurance 750 a year... I spent about $6k fixing it up, plus my time... Cost $80K, no mortgage...

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