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First-time Buyers Out-Bid By WallStreet & BabyBoomers


By Mark D   Follow   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 4:10am PST   1,562 views   14 comments
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Mostly by Baby Boomers.

"In October, the share of buyers purchasing their first home dropped to 34.7%, the lowest point in at least three years, according to a survey of real estate agents. This compares with 37.1% in June and the 40% range it has historically hovered around.

In October, current homeowners made up 54.2% of non-distressed sales, a jump from 50% in June. And investors made up 12.2% of sales, higher than 11.3% during the same period. 
By contrast, first-time buyers fell behind. Their share of purchases fell to 33.6% from 38.7%."

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/27/first-time-homebuyers-housing-market/

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FunTime   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 4:00am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

This article suggests first-time buyers are new households. I think the big problem is or will be that even older households will decide that buying a house is out-of-reach. The interest rates on mortgages already signifies that buying a house is out-of-reach for most people whether they choose to take a humungous mortgage of many times their annual income or not.

bubblesitter   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 5:24am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 2

Without going into details of the article,from what I understand is,WallStreet & BabyBoomers will control the house prices and there will be no homes left for first time home buyers cuz they can't afford it. So,who the hell the WallStreet & BabyBoomers will sell their shacks to?

Mark D   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 5:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

bubblesitter says

Without going into details of the article,from what I understand is,WallStreet & BabyBoomers will control the house prices and there will be no homes left for first time home buyers cuz they can't afford it. So,who the hell the WallStreet & BabyBoomers will sell their shacks to?

i believe that the Baby Boomers are currently working on it. they might have bad rep but they usually get what they want. so in the end, i believe they will get their buyers.

bmwman91   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 5:59am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

Mark D says

i believe that the Baby Boomers are currently working on it. they might have bad rep but they usually get what they want. so in the end, i believe they will get their buyers.

Yup.

Last year the US government started to give out resident visas to foreigners that spent $500k or more on real estate purchases. We might see more incentives like that. There are more voting house owners out there than renters, so they will probably get what they want, regardless of whose expense it may be at.

carducci22   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 12:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

Where did you get that information from? Do you know how politically explosive it is to give residence permit in exchange for house purchase regardless of the purchase price? Can you back up your claim?

CrazyMan   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 12:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

It's dead, Jim

http://www.schumerleevisabill.com/

It's was only a 3 year Visa, not permanent anyway. Regardless, it doesn't exist.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=residential+visa+purchase+home

bmwman91   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 2:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

Thank god. I stand, happily, corrected.

David Losh   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 3:00am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=facb83453d4a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCRD

What Schumer was proposing is an extension of a Visa program that is already on the books.

Job creation of ten full time workers can get you a green card.

Now, any one, at any time can buy property in the United States, and that is exactly what is happening.

Why not? Where would you want to put your money from China? or India, or Europe, or anywhere?

Kevin   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 4:43am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

A tropical island.

bob2356   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 7:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

David Losh says

What Schumer was proposing is an extension of a Visa program that is already on the books.

Job creation of ten full time workers can get you a green card.

There are 10,000 E5's available per year. The number used per year has been between 600 and 4000 the last 10 years. Not a big deal.

David Losh says

Now, any one, at any time can buy property in the United States, and that is exactly what is happening.

Why not? Where would you want to put your money from China? or India, or Europe, or anywhere?

Foreign (private and institutional) purchases of real estate (residential and commercial) has run about 10% a year with very little variation for 15 years.

Where are rich chinese buying real estate? http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/06/20/where-rich-chinese-are-buying-real-estate/ Forbes says Canada, the UK and Australia are topping list. Canadians actually buy more property in the US than Chinese. Chinese bought 9.3 billion last year out of 928 billion.

David Losh   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 7:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

Chinese are Canadians.
http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/2011/05/11/may-8-2011-citizenship-for-investor-immigrants-jason-kenney-guarantees-fire-sale-price/

The article you referenced is a year old, but it makes no difference, there is only a reason to declare the sale of a United States property through the Foriegn Investment in Real Property Act: http://www.irs.gov/irm/part4/irm_04-061-012.html

Any one is allowed to buy property here for cash, as long as they pay taxes, and I don't see how that would be a stirring news item.
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/25/business/la-fi-china-us-investing-20120825

Vicente   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 8:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Mark D says

i believe that the Baby Boomers are currently working on it. they might have bad rep but they usually get what they want. so in the end, i believe they will get their buyers.

Eventually, Boomers'll be dead or headed to managed care. At which point their children will sell the shacks for whatever they can get for 'em, because they'll be desperate to get at that money. You'll see another cycle before long.

bob2356   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 12:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

David Losh says

Chinese are Canadians.
http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/2011/05/11/may-8-2011-citizenship-for-investor-immigrants-jason-kenney-guarantees-fire-sale-price/

Wow, a whole 3223 last year. I think you can safely say that even if they all decided to buy property in the US it would have almost zero impact on the market.

All the people waiting for "foreign investors" to save the market will be waiting a very, very long time.

David Losh   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 12:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

bob2356 says

"foreign investors"

No one is saying foriegn investors will save the day. It's just a fact of life that mechanisms are in place to encourage foriegn investment, and more will come.

Most people with that kind of cash want to stay hidden. There would be very few foreigners who would come in plunk down $500K and ask for a Green Card. That kind of defeats the purpose.

Most of these people are squireling away a very long term nest egg.

Americans think in terms of years, some foreigners think in terms of generations.

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