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Housing Inventory Ghost Town


By tannenbaum   Follow   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 3:01pm PST   11,130 views   164 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/06/11/orange-county-ca-housing-inventory-ghost-town/

This post, somewhat ironically coming from a loan officer in Orange County, CA, is several months old, but remains equally relevant today and succinctly explains the completely dysfunctional real estate market of 2012.

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yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:25am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 125

Patrick says

I didn't delete Yup1. He is still with us:


http://patrick.net/users.php?username=yup


Anyway, I finally finished working on a way to just suspend users without deleting them, so I'm more likely to use that from now on.

Yup is gone Patrick. I made Yup1

Patrick   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:33am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 126

Well, I didn't delete him deliberately, but maybe the auto-nuke function got him.

New users can be classified as spammers and nuked based on the characteristics of their first few comments, like posting a lot of links or using spammy keywords or posting from a foreign country.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 127

E-man says

I believe you made a mistake deleting Yup's account. Yup is negative about the housing market, but by no means he's a troll. I don't know what he said to get his account deleted, but I don't think that's right. He's not like War or Darryl.

Agree!

E-man says

Yup, this is how I see it. Unlike Iwog, Roberto was still bearish about the housing market 2 years ago, but he decided to buy anyways because the numbers made sense. I remember that Roberto was calling Iwog all kinds of name for being bullish in 2010. At that time, Roberto didn't see the end of the foreclosure tunnel. Since he wasn't confident that the housing market would recover in the near future, it was best to play it safe instead of telling his readers to go all in on housing. I think you misjudged his intention for telling his readers not to buy so he could buy them cheap. I don't think that was the case.

I find it interesting that his blog is completely at odds with his posting here. Go look at his blog.

Fact (blog)Sept 16, 2010 Phoenix in trouble prices will decline for 6 months

Fact (blog)Oct 16, 2010 I am still BEARISH on housing

Fact (blog)Nov 14, 2010 QE2 is not going to help home prices

FACT posted here Nov 15, 2010 I NOW HAVE 3 HOMES UNDER CONTRACT

http://patrick.net/?p=579064

WTF I am assuming he did some research for the contracts which takes time. In my opinion he was intentionally deceiving his blog readers. Why, only he knows.

E-man says

Roberto, I'm not sure if you told your readers to load up on real estate in 2011 and 2012.

Not on his blog.

"What a difference a couple years make!
Posted on August 17, 2012 by robertoaribas
The Phoenix market has made an abrupt U turn, or perhaps a a V turn, and prices are on the rise, at least for now, with a vengeance… Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago, when price/rent ratios hit such ridiculous levels it seemed crazy not to"

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:43am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 128

Patrick says

Well, I didn't delete him deliberately, but maybe the auto-nuke function got him.


New users can be classified as spammers and nuked based on the characteristics of their first few comments, like posting a lot of links or using spammy keywords or posting from a foreign country.

Yup was not new and had 7 threads, and at least several hundred comments.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:50am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 129

Bigsby says

If you're being a dick, which you quite clearly were, then it's perfectly reasonable to point that out. What were my other insults? You, on the other hand, seemed very angry at Roberto for no good reason and made things very personal indeed. Strange to say the least.

I am not claiming that I have never been a dick on here. What about you and roberto? Looking back at this conversation would you say roberto was never a dick? Yourself?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:51am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 130

yup1 says

I find it interesting that his blog is completely at odds with his posting here. Go look at his blog.

Fact (blog)Sept 16, 2010 Phoenix in trouble prices will decline for 6 months

Fact (blog)Oct 16, 2010 I am still BEARISH on housing

Fact (blog)Nov 14, 2010 QE2 is not going to help home prices

FACT posted here Nov 15, 2010 I NOW HAVE 3 HOMES UNDER CONTRACT

http://patrick.net/?p=579064

How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 131

Bigsby says

How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

Have you read his blog? He is posting to it claiming to be a professional. You don't give out professional advice, while doing the opposite, unless you work for Goldman Sachs!

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:56am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 132

Bigsby says

How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

I was also responding to another users post so why don't you STFU ;)

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:57am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 133

yup1 says

Bigsby says

If you're being a dick, which you quite clearly were, then it's perfectly reasonable to point that out. What were my other insults? You, on the other hand, seemed very angry at Roberto for no good reason and made things very personal indeed. Strange to say the least.

I am not claiming that I have never been a dick on here. What about you and roberto? Looking back at this conversation would you say roberto was never a dick? Yourself?

No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things. And yes, Roberto is invariably over sensitive and often acts like an ass, but you were deliberately provoking him for no reason (as have others). He bought some condos. He's been transparent about it. He brags about it when attacked. Big fucking deal. He's buying very cheap properties with what appear to be fantastic rates of return. Why do you and others get so worked up about that?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 2:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 134

yup1 says

Bigsby says

How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

I was also responding to another users post so why don't you STFU ;)

You've posted it over and over again. Do you think these people can't read?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:02am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 135

yup1 says

Have you read his blog? He is posting to it claiming to be a professional. You don't give out professional advice, while doing the opposite, unless you work for Goldman Sachs!

It's a fucking amateur blog read by a handful of people. Professional advice? He said he bought a few houses in the 90s and sold them in 2005. Big time shit.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:09am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (3)     Comment 136

Bigsby says

No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

Really? Ok fine You come across as a dick, a douche bag, and robertos gay lover and protector. You know there is a difference.

You just come across that way.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:11am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 137

Bigsby says

No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.

Congratulations!

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:12am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 138

yup1 says

Bigsby says

No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

Really? Ok fine You come across as a dick, a douche bag, and robertos gay lover and protector. You know there is a difference.

You just come across that way.

There you go. You're learning. The thing is though, I was just pointing out the problems with what you were saying. I'm not quite sure how that makes me all of the above. Perhaps you'd care to explain.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:13am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 139

yup1 says

This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.

Congratulations!

You obviously haven't been reading your own posts then.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:22am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 140

Bigsby says

yup1 says



This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.


Congratulations!


You obviously haven't been reading your own posts then.

So it is totally cool to insinuate that someone is being a dick, but it is totally not cool to say they are actually being a dick.

Can you send me your forum book of your etiquette so I can burn it!

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:27am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 141

yup1 says

So it is totally cool to insinuate that someone is being a dick, but it is totally not cool to say they are actually being a dick.

Can you send me your forum book of your etiquette so I can burn it!

I wasn't insinuating anything. You'd posted up a string of very douchey and dickish posts. Everyone can see that simply by reading through this thread. I just stated the obvious. You couldn't hold your hands up and say 'yes, I was a bit OTT.' Instead, of course, you decided to respond by posting a string of personal insults. You've moaned throughout this thread about being insulted, but you've been the one doing the vast majority of the insulting. You were the one who posted a completely unnecessary and very personal attack on Roberto. And yet here you still are bleating away. Give it a fucking rest, why don't you?

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:37am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 142

Bigsby says

I wasn't insinuating anything.

Bullshit!

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:39am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 143

yup1 says

Bigsby says

I wasn't insinuating anything.

Bullshit!

Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 144

Bigsby says

Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

So if you were talking to someone and someone else came up to you and said hey you are coming across as being a dick you would have no issue with that?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:52am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 145

yup1 says

Bigsby says

Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

So if you were talking to someone and someone else came up to you and said hey you are coming across as being a dick you would have no issue with that?

It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 146

Bigsby says

It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

Yup.

And you have been acting like robertos gay lover. Can you give him back the keyboard now?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 3:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 147

yup1 says

Bigsby says

It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

Yup.

And you have been acting like robertos gay lover. Can you give him back the keyboard now?

It's very easy to see why he put you on ignore.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:06am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 148

Bigsby I am looking at some of your old posted. You sure are a whiney little bitch.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:08am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 149

yup1 says

You sure are a whiney little bitch.

I think you're confusing me with yourself. Anyway, I'm very bored with your personal insults, so I'm going to call it a night. Enjoy yourself.

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 150

What is the topic of this forum?

from the June 2011 article:

"Please don’t be fooled into thinking that the low inventory is a strong housing indicator. It is a by-product of a dysfunctional housing market, leading to multiple bids on a limited number of homes. Organic sellers have become ghosts, and there are yet long delays in getting distressed homes into the market."

It seems that this statement from a year and a half ago still holds true in the bay area. The Banks are slowly trickling out distressed supply while the "Organic seller" sits, hoping for a return to boom prices.

The government, media, federal reserve and banks are all in collusion to cause a "recovery" whereby more people can be trapped by the slavery of debt.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 7:46am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 151

Wow it sure has gotten quiet since I linked robertoaribas rental FAIL!

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 7:57am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 152

yup1 says

Wow it sure has gotten quiet since I linked robertoaribas rental FAIL!

I don't think you have any idea just how few people (probably 1) care about your personal flame war.

Legitimate users spend most of their time talking about topics. Trolls spend most of their time talking about other users.

Which one are you?

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 8:02am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 153

iwog says

Which one are you?

I am looking for the truth. Listening to the bulls on here, particularly stealatard roberto, one might think housing is in a raging bull market. But with a little fact checking we find the truth. The market is dead, it is being manipulated by thieves, again, and they have sent their lying minions onto blog sites to manipulate the masses.

So duckface, which one are you?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 8:11am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 154

yup1 says

I am looking for the truth.

Bullshit. You're creating pages of nonsense attacking another user after an entirely satisfactory explanation was offered. Who the hell cares what Roberto is doing. What does that have to do with the RE market?

yup1 says

Listening to the bulls on here, particularly stealatard roberto, one might think housing is in a raging bull market.

It's amazing that you continue to be this blind. The latest Case-Shiller report shows real estate higher in 18 out of 20 urban areas...........In a November report.

You'd have to be totally blind and ignorant to deny the market is going higher. In some places, there are multiple bids double digits deep. Are you really looking for truth? Really?

yup1 says

The market is dead, it is being manipulated by thieves, again, and they have sent their lying minions onto blog sites to manipulate the masses.

Again you just pull a bunch of BS out of your ass and pretend it's true. Meanwhile myself and others use facts, charts, surveys, and field reports.

Which one am I? The person who is heavily invested in the Real Estate market and the one receiving blind offers $100,000 higher than what I paid last year. This is reality.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 8:17am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 155

iwog says

It's amazing that you continue to be this blind. The latest Case-Shiller report shows real estate higher in 18 out of 20 urban areas...........In a November report.
You'd have to be totally blind and ignorant to deny the market is going higher. In some places, there are multiple bids double digits deep. Are you really looking for truth? Really?

You are shitforbrainsallinmotherfucker. Now you come on here and try to get suckers to buy into your fucking game that you have rigged for you to win. You get access to capital buy low and sell high.

iwog says

Again you just pull a bunch of BS out of your ass and pretend it's true. Meanwhile myself and others use facts, charts, surveys, and field reports.
Which one am I? The person who is heavily invested in the Real Estate market and the one receiving blind offers $100,000 higher than what I paid last year. This is reality.

You made my above point.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 10:48am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 156

E-man says

Bruce Norris from SoCal told his clients to go all in in 2011

There is a guy here in the Seattle area who started buying in 2010 because the prices were just too good.

Then he bought in Las Vegas, and Reno. His group has looked at Tempe, and Phoenix, but there are just way too many properties to choose from.

I think the big problem here is that investors have a different mind set than mom, dad, and the kids. You can buy a steal of a deal if you look for them.

There is nothing wrong with that.

While regularly motivated sellers may have dried up, there are plenty of individuals, corporations, and institutions that are more than willing to unload.

We all have our own take about what's going on, but we should be working on that.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:21pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 157

yup1 says

You are shitforbrainsallinmotherfucker. Now you come on here and try to get suckers to buy into your fucking game that you have rigged for you to win. You get access to capital buy low and sell high.

Clearly a man with an IQ of 144.

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 158

Billybigrig says

ELC says

CDon says

To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

BTW, great post.

Obviously there is stark contrast between an IQ of 144 and shear brilliance

..

like it means something coming from you.

Mark D   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 4:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 159

E-man says

I believe you made a mistake deleting Yup's account. Yup is negative about the housing market, but by no means he's a troll. I don't know what he said to get his account deleted, but I don't think that's right. He's not like War or Darryl.

yup is the same person behind war, darrel in phoenix, liarwatch and possibly many other screen names.

"yup" got owned by Roberto today though. it was hilarious to watch.

yup1   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Dec 2012, 11:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 160

Mark D says

yup is the same person behind war, darrel in phoenix, liarwatch and possibly many other screen names.
"yup" got owned by Roberto today though. it was hilarious to watch.

Nope

yup1   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Dec 2012, 12:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 161

robertoaribas says

I don't believe yup1 is the same person as darrel in phoenix, liearwatch, etc. I did think so after the first post or two, and that is partially why I jumped right to rude responses. However, after reading more posts I don't believe so; the use of language is different. Yup is his own person.

Yup :)

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Dec 2012, 12:57am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 162

yup1 says

robertoaribas says

I don't believe yup1 is the same person as darrel in phoenix, liearwatch, etc. I did think so after the first post or two, and that is partially why I jumped right to rude responses. However, after reading more posts I don't believe so; the use of language is different. Yup is his own person.

Yup :)

That response makes me think it is Darrell.

CDon   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Dec 2012, 5:38am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 163

robertoaribas says

darrel never even bothered to read posts, he simply posted one liners after everything...

Speaking of one liners - anyone know what happened to this poster "Reader"

http://www.patrick.net/about.php?user_ID=22311

Looks like he regisered in Nov 2011 & for the first year was mostly a "reader" and not much of a poster.

Then, around Sept 1, he erupted - going on an epic near 1,000 post bender in about 2 months time. Everything was one liner after one liner - along with heavy use of the word "shite".

It was incredible to watch as he kept up his 30+ post a day regimen. Of the 355 pages of registered pat.net users, he ended up on page 2 in terms of comments made. In 2 months time, he posted more than some people who were regular contributors over the last 4-5 years!

Then, like a neutron star he imploded. Last post Nov 17, looks like he rolled up shop and deleted the name "reader" so just his ID number 37108605 remains.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Dec 2012, 10:18am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 164

CDon says

Then, like a neutron star he imploded. Last post Nov 17, looks like he rolled up shop and deleted the name "reader" so just his ID number 37108605 remains.

He probably got an offer to buy a house with no money down. Then, even before the closing was cold, he got a HELOC and promptly got trapped in the hull of his new ski boat drifting around the fingers of Lake Shasta. Luckily he filled the hull with booze and slim Jims so he might survive the winter in time to be rescued. By that time the house would have dropped 10% in value. ;)

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