Housing Inventory Ghost Town


By tannenbaum   Follow   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 11:01pm   9,734 views   164 comments
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/06/11/orange-county-ca-housing-inventory-ghost-town/

This post, somewhat ironically coming from a loan officer in Orange County, CA, is several months old, but remains equally relevant today and succinctly explains the completely dysfunctional real estate market of 2012.

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  1. yup1


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    125   10:25am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Patrick says

    I didn't delete Yup1. He is still with us:


    http://patrick.net/users.php?username=yup


    Anyway, I finally finished working on a way to just suspend users without deleting them, so I'm more likely to use that from now on.

    Yup is gone Patrick. I made Yup1

  2. Patrick


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    126   10:33am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Well, I didn't delete him deliberately, but maybe the auto-nuke function got him.

    New users can be classified as spammers and nuked based on the characteristics of their first few comments, like posting a lot of links or using spammy keywords or posting from a foreign country.

  3. yup1


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    127   10:42am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    I believe you made a mistake deleting Yup's account. Yup is negative about the housing market, but by no means he's a troll. I don't know what he said to get his account deleted, but I don't think that's right. He's not like War or Darryl.

    Agree!

    E-man says

    Yup, this is how I see it. Unlike Iwog, Roberto was still bearish about the housing market 2 years ago, but he decided to buy anyways because the numbers made sense. I remember that Roberto was calling Iwog all kinds of name for being bullish in 2010. At that time, Roberto didn't see the end of the foreclosure tunnel. Since he wasn't confident that the housing market would recover in the near future, it was best to play it safe instead of telling his readers to go all in on housing. I think you misjudged his intention for telling his readers not to buy so he could buy them cheap. I don't think that was the case.

    I find it interesting that his blog is completely at odds with his posting here. Go look at his blog.

    Fact (blog)Sept 16, 2010 Phoenix in trouble prices will decline for 6 months

    Fact (blog)Oct 16, 2010 I am still BEARISH on housing

    Fact (blog)Nov 14, 2010 QE2 is not going to help home prices

    FACT posted here Nov 15, 2010 I NOW HAVE 3 HOMES UNDER CONTRACT

    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=579064

    WTF I am assuming he did some research for the contracts which takes time. In my opinion he was intentionally deceiving his blog readers. Why, only he knows.

    E-man says

    Roberto, I'm not sure if you told your readers to load up on real estate in 2011 and 2012.

    Not on his blog.

    "What a difference a couple years make!
    Posted on August 17, 2012 by robertoaribas
    The Phoenix market has made an abrupt U turn, or perhaps a a V turn, and prices are on the rise, at least for now, with a vengeance… Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago, when price/rent ratios hit such ridiculous levels it seemed crazy not to"

  4. yup1


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    128   10:43am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Patrick says

    Well, I didn't delete him deliberately, but maybe the auto-nuke function got him.


    New users can be classified as spammers and nuked based on the characteristics of their first few comments, like posting a lot of links or using spammy keywords or posting from a foreign country.

    Yup was not new and had 7 threads, and at least several hundred comments.

  5. yup1


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    129   10:50am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    If you're being a dick, which you quite clearly were, then it's perfectly reasonable to point that out. What were my other insults? You, on the other hand, seemed very angry at Roberto for no good reason and made things very personal indeed. Strange to say the least.

    I am not claiming that I have never been a dick on here. What about you and roberto? Looking back at this conversation would you say roberto was never a dick? Yourself?

  6. Bigsby


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    130   10:51am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    I find it interesting that his blog is completely at odds with his posting here. Go look at his blog.

    Fact (blog)Sept 16, 2010 Phoenix in trouble prices will decline for 6 months

    Fact (blog)Oct 16, 2010 I am still BEARISH on housing

    Fact (blog)Nov 14, 2010 QE2 is not going to help home prices

    FACT posted here Nov 15, 2010 I NOW HAVE 3 HOMES UNDER CONTRACT

    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=579064

    How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

  7. yup1


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    131   10:55am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

    Have you read his blog? He is posting to it claiming to be a professional. You don't give out professional advice, while doing the opposite, unless you work for Goldman Sachs!

  8. yup1


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    132   10:56am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

    I was also responding to another users post so why don't you STFU ;)

  9. Bigsby


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    133   10:57am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    If you're being a dick, which you quite clearly were, then it's perfectly reasonable to point that out. What were my other insults? You, on the other hand, seemed very angry at Roberto for no good reason and made things very personal indeed. Strange to say the least.

    I am not claiming that I have never been a dick on here. What about you and roberto? Looking back at this conversation would you say roberto was never a dick? Yourself?

    No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things. And yes, Roberto is invariably over sensitive and often acts like an ass, but you were deliberately provoking him for no reason (as have others). He bought some condos. He's been transparent about it. He brags about it when attacked. Big fucking deal. He's buying very cheap properties with what appear to be fantastic rates of return. Why do you and others get so worked up about that?

  10. Bigsby


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    134   10:59am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    How many times is it that you've repeated this point? What isn't clear in the link you posted? He's still saying he's negative about housing at that time, 'but hey, I'm buying 3 condos that are all cheaper than a fairly average family car and all have excellent rates of return' to paraphrase. You do know that you can be pessimistic on the whole but as an investor still find bargains.

    I was also responding to another users post so why don't you STFU ;)

    You've posted it over and over again. Do you think these people can't read?

  11. Bigsby


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    135   11:02am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    yup1 says

    Have you read his blog? He is posting to it claiming to be a professional. You don't give out professional advice, while doing the opposite, unless you work for Goldman Sachs!

    It's a fucking amateur blog read by a handful of people. Professional advice? He said he bought a few houses in the 90s and sold them in 2005. Big time shit.

  12. yup1


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    136   11:09am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)  

    Bigsby says

    No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

    Really? Ok fine You come across as a dick, a douche bag, and robertos gay lover and protector. You know there is a difference.

    You just come across that way.

  13. yup1


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    137   11:11am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    Bigsby says

    No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

    This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.

    Congratulations!

  14. Bigsby


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    138   11:12am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    No, I wouldn't say I've been a dick. I said in one post that you were coming across as a dick and a douche bag. One post. I didn't say you were a dick or a douche bag but that it was the way you were coming across. There's a difference. You, however, immediately called me a dick amongst other things.

    Really? Ok fine You come across as a dick, a douche bag, and robertos gay lover and protector. You know there is a difference.

    You just come across that way.

    There you go. You're learning. The thing is though, I was just pointing out the problems with what you were saying. I'm not quite sure how that makes me all of the above. Perhaps you'd care to explain.

  15. Bigsby


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    139   11:13am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.

    Congratulations!

    You obviously haven't been reading your own posts then.

  16. yup1


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    140   11:22am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    yup1 says



    This is probably the stupidest fucking thing I have read on this forum.


    Congratulations!


    You obviously haven't been reading your own posts then.

    So it is totally cool to insinuate that someone is being a dick, but it is totally not cool to say they are actually being a dick.

    Can you send me your forum book of your etiquette so I can burn it!

  17. Bigsby


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    141   11:27am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    So it is totally cool to insinuate that someone is being a dick, but it is totally not cool to say they are actually being a dick.

    Can you send me your forum book of your etiquette so I can burn it!

    I wasn't insinuating anything. You'd posted up a string of very douchey and dickish posts. Everyone can see that simply by reading through this thread. I just stated the obvious. You couldn't hold your hands up and say 'yes, I was a bit OTT.' Instead, of course, you decided to respond by posting a string of personal insults. You've moaned throughout this thread about being insulted, but you've been the one doing the vast majority of the insulting. You were the one who posted a completely unnecessary and very personal attack on Roberto. And yet here you still are bleating away. Give it a fucking rest, why don't you?

  18. yup1


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    142   11:37am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    Bigsby says

    I wasn't insinuating anything.

    Bullshit!

  19. Bigsby


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    143   11:39am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    I wasn't insinuating anything.

    Bullshit!

    Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

  20. yup1


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    144   11:46am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

    So if you were talking to someone and someone else came up to you and said hey you are coming across as being a dick you would have no issue with that?

  21. Bigsby


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    145   11:52am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    Good grief. It wasn't an insinuation. It was a clear statement of my opinion.

    So if you were talking to someone and someone else came up to you and said hey you are coming across as being a dick you would have no issue with that?

    It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

  22. yup1


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    146   11:59am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

    Yup.

    And you have been acting like robertos gay lover. Can you give him back the keyboard now?

  23. Bigsby


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    147   11:59am Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    It would entirely depend on what I'd been doing, don't you think? And as you've quite clearly been posting very dickish comments, and have continued to post very dickish comments, I think it's fair to say that you've been acting like a dick.

    Yup.

    And you have been acting like robertos gay lover. Can you give him back the keyboard now?

    It's very easy to see why he put you on ignore.

  24. yup1


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    148   12:06pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby I am looking at some of your old posted. You sure are a whiney little bitch.

  25. Bigsby


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    149   12:08pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    You sure are a whiney little bitch.

    I think you're confusing me with yourself. Anyway, I'm very bored with your personal insults, so I'm going to call it a night. Enjoy yourself.

  26. The Professor


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    150   12:32pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    What is the topic of this forum?

    from the June 2011 article:

    "Please don’t be fooled into thinking that the low inventory is a strong housing indicator. It is a by-product of a dysfunctional housing market, leading to multiple bids on a limited number of homes. Organic sellers have become ghosts, and there are yet long delays in getting distressed homes into the market."

    It seems that this statement from a year and a half ago still holds true in the bay area. The Banks are slowly trickling out distressed supply while the "Organic seller" sits, hoping for a return to boom prices.

    The government, media, federal reserve and banks are all in collusion to cause a "recovery" whereby more people can be trapped by the slavery of debt.

  27. yup1


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    151   3:46pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Wow it sure has gotten quiet since I linked robertoaribas rental FAIL!

  28. iwog


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    152   3:57pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    yup1 says

    Wow it sure has gotten quiet since I linked robertoaribas rental FAIL!

    I don't think you have any idea just how few people (probably 1) care about your personal flame war.

    Legitimate users spend most of their time talking about topics. Trolls spend most of their time talking about other users.

    Which one are you?

  29. yup1


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    153   4:02pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Which one are you?

    I am looking for the truth. Listening to the bulls on here, particularly stealatard roberto, one might think housing is in a raging bull market. But with a little fact checking we find the truth. The market is dead, it is being manipulated by thieves, again, and they have sent their lying minions onto blog sites to manipulate the masses.

    So duckface, which one are you?

  30. iwog


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    154   4:11pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    yup1 says

    I am looking for the truth.

    Bullshit. You're creating pages of nonsense attacking another user after an entirely satisfactory explanation was offered. Who the hell cares what Roberto is doing. What does that have to do with the RE market?

    yup1 says

    Listening to the bulls on here, particularly stealatard roberto, one might think housing is in a raging bull market.

    It's amazing that you continue to be this blind. The latest Case-Shiller report shows real estate higher in 18 out of 20 urban areas...........In a November report.

    You'd have to be totally blind and ignorant to deny the market is going higher. In some places, there are multiple bids double digits deep. Are you really looking for truth? Really?

    yup1 says

    The market is dead, it is being manipulated by thieves, again, and they have sent their lying minions onto blog sites to manipulate the masses.

    Again you just pull a bunch of BS out of your ass and pretend it's true. Meanwhile myself and others use facts, charts, surveys, and field reports.

    Which one am I? The person who is heavily invested in the Real Estate market and the one receiving blind offers $100,000 higher than what I paid last year. This is reality.

  31. yup1


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    155   4:17pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    iwog says

    It's amazing that you continue to be this blind. The latest Case-Shiller report shows real estate higher in 18 out of 20 urban areas...........In a November report.
    You'd have to be totally blind and ignorant to deny the market is going higher. In some places, there are multiple bids double digits deep. Are you really looking for truth? Really?

    You are shitforbrainsallinmotherfucker. Now you come on here and try to get suckers to buy into your fucking game that you have rigged for you to win. You get access to capital buy low and sell high.

    iwog says

    Again you just pull a bunch of BS out of your ass and pretend it's true. Meanwhile myself and others use facts, charts, surveys, and field reports.
    Which one am I? The person who is heavily invested in the Real Estate market and the one receiving blind offers $100,000 higher than what I paid last year. This is reality.

    You made my above point.

  32. David Losh


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    156   6:48pm Sun 2 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    Bruce Norris from SoCal told his clients to go all in in 2011

    There is a guy here in the Seattle area who started buying in 2010 because the prices were just too good.

    Then he bought in Las Vegas, and Reno. His group has looked at Tempe, and Phoenix, but there are just way too many properties to choose from.

    I think the big problem here is that investors have a different mind set than mom, dad, and the kids. You can buy a steal of a deal if you look for them.

    There is nothing wrong with that.

    While regularly motivated sellers may have dried up, there are plenty of individuals, corporations, and institutions that are more than willing to unload.

    We all have our own take about what's going on, but we should be working on that.

  33. Bigsby


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    157   12:21am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    You are shitforbrainsallinmotherfucker. Now you come on here and try to get suckers to buy into your fucking game that you have rigged for you to win. You get access to capital buy low and sell high.

    Clearly a man with an IQ of 144.

  34. Mark D


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    158   12:32am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Billybigrig says

    ELC says

    CDon says

    To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate

    I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

    BTW, great post.

    Obviously there is stark contrast between an IQ of 144 and shear brilliance

    ..

    like it means something coming from you.

  35. Mark D


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    159   12:55am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    I believe you made a mistake deleting Yup's account. Yup is negative about the housing market, but by no means he's a troll. I don't know what he said to get his account deleted, but I don't think that's right. He's not like War or Darryl.

    yup is the same person behind war, darrel in phoenix, liarwatch and possibly many other screen names.

    "yup" got owned by Roberto today though. it was hilarious to watch.

  36. yup1


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    160   7:56am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Mark D says

    yup is the same person behind war, darrel in phoenix, liarwatch and possibly many other screen names.
    "yup" got owned by Roberto today though. it was hilarious to watch.

    Nope

  37. yup1


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    161   8:53am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    I don't believe yup1 is the same person as darrel in phoenix, liearwatch, etc. I did think so after the first post or two, and that is partially why I jumped right to rude responses. However, after reading more posts I don't believe so; the use of language is different. Yup is his own person.

    Yup :)

  38. Bigsby


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    162   8:57am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    robertoaribas says

    I don't believe yup1 is the same person as darrel in phoenix, liearwatch, etc. I did think so after the first post or two, and that is partially why I jumped right to rude responses. However, after reading more posts I don't believe so; the use of language is different. Yup is his own person.

    Yup :)

    That response makes me think it is Darrell.

  39. CDon


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    163   1:38pm Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    darrel never even bothered to read posts, he simply posted one liners after everything...

    Speaking of one liners - anyone know what happened to this poster "Reader"

    http://www.patrick.net/about.php?user_ID=22311

    Looks like he regisered in Nov 2011 & for the first year was mostly a "reader" and not much of a poster.

    Then, around Sept 1, he erupted - going on an epic near 1,000 post bender in about 2 months time. Everything was one liner after one liner - along with heavy use of the word "shite".

    It was incredible to watch as he kept up his 30+ post a day regimen. Of the 355 pages of registered pat.net users, he ended up on page 2 in terms of comments made. In 2 months time, he posted more than some people who were regular contributors over the last 4-5 years!

    Then, like a neutron star he imploded. Last post Nov 17, looks like he rolled up shop and deleted the name "reader" so just his ID number 37108605 remains.

  40. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    164   6:18pm Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    CDon says

    Then, like a neutron star he imploded. Last post Nov 17, looks like he rolled up shop and deleted the name "reader" so just his ID number 37108605 remains.

    He probably got an offer to buy a house with no money down. Then, even before the closing was cold, he got a HELOC and promptly got trapped in the hull of his new ski boat drifting around the fingers of Lake Shasta. Luckily he filled the hull with booze and slim Jims so he might survive the winter in time to be rescued. By that time the house would have dropped 10% in value. ;)

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