Watchhttp://loganmohtashami.com/2012/06/11/orange-county-ca-housing-inventory-ghost-town/
This post, somewhat ironically coming from a loan officer in Orange County, CA, is several months old, but remains equally relevant today and succinctly explains the completely dysfunctional real estate market of 2012.
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Bigsby says
Wow...resorting to a bunch of unwarranted childish name-calling, being an arrogrant prick (may as well return the name-calling) and taking pleasure in the supposed misfortune of people you don't even know or ever will know? All in the same post?Roberto clearly has issues. Not to mention no class whatsoever. I'd hate to be one of his tenants.
Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him". You don't see Warren Buffett going around boasting about his fortunes, although he certainly could - it's called humility and class.
Roberto: This post wasn't about nor intended to be all about your vast real estate holdings in greater Phoenix. I certainly wasn't inquiring about them and really could not care less. You have already established your legendary status in your own mind, been the star of far too many of your own posts and have hijacked too many others, including this one.
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robertoaribas says
In other words, you can't necessarily discredit what he is saying, so you discredit him? Where does he claim to be an economist? BTW, it doesn't take an "economist" to observe the obvious.
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Monterey, CA
robertoaribas says
You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.
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Black Mountain, NC
As far as the hysterical shrieking of Robertoaribas goes .. always consider this....
"Opinions founded on prejudice are always sustained with the greatest violence"
Oscar Wilde
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ELC says
Not at all. The point was a very limited one refuting the contention that due to manipulation, you will have a "dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price." You absolutely can if the manipulation continues for so long that it becomes part of the market.
So the question as to when to "invest" (and I actually kinda hate that word in this context as many here simply want to buy a place and get on with life w/o fear there is another monumental drop dead ahead) is when do you see the purported "manipulation" ending and how? Will it be quick and maybe cause a dislocation? Or will it be drawn out into a huge nothing burger?
Now the question as to the particular "artificial" condition of underwater sellers holding out causing a dearth of inventory - had you really thought about it in 07 & 08, how else would one expect a bottom to form? Fact of the matter is, prices in some areas will not hit nominal highs for 10-20 years, meaning underwater homeowners will be a way of life for some markets for at least that long.
And now that the powers that be have been manipulating more heavily since TARP, QE, etc. have seen the results of their manipulation turn a scorching downturn into years of stagnation, why would they suddenly change course? In essence why would they suddenly rip the band aid off, potentially destroying the stagnation they worked so hard to create in the first place?
So the question now is what will these underwater homeowners do going forward? Absent a black swan type event, (which is a potential factor now, 10 years from now, and every other moment of our lives) will they suddenly, en masse decide that they cant take it any more, puke up short sale inventory in droves, potentially driving prices back to the stone age...
or
Will they do what they did to cause a bottom in the first place, which is individually, and agonizngly slowly make non-uniform decisions. To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate - basically the same decisions they individually have been making since the beginning of the bursting in 07, the arresting of the downward momentum in 09, and the stagnation of the last 3 years.
The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.
So if you are investing, you better do it for rents - and if places dont pencil out in your area, dont invest in homes.
And if you are waiting to buy a place to live in, do so, only because you need to get your down payment or other financial affairs in order first - or because you just arent ready. There clearly is no need to rush.
Still if your reason to wait is because you see TPTB suddenly ripping the band aid off, and underwater homeowners capitulating en masse, creating a fantasy land of manna from heaven inventory levels and stone age prices, well, I dont know what to tell you.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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yup1 says
Right........it has nothing to do with the fact that 51 other forum members have befriended me or that I try to include content with nearly everything I post here or that I don't spam.
It's because I donate money to keep the site running right? By the way Patrick is providing a service and since you want to use that service, I suggest that you should also help out and send him a small donation.
Unlimited free speech should not be practiced on this forum because some people are too stupid, too arrogant, or too full of hate to be trusted with it. It's really too bad but it happens to be the truth.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
Yup says
Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
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Los Angeles, CA
robertoaribas says
You continue to repeat this over and over again without any explanation of what you believe the upper bounds of that price increase are.
Of course the answer is that prices will rise until its profitable to built again.
In otherwords, there is an upper cap on where prices will rise to(or at least the speed at which prices rise).
However the way you state it....theres another phrase for that....
"Buy now or be priced out forever".
Which is quite hillarious since you were arguing against that exact same thing five years ago.
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mike2 says
Yeah great job Roberto! The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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MsBennet says
He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!
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Laguna Beach, CA
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Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.
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yup1 says
Much better.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
tannenbaum says
Classic delusions of granduer IF he's serious and not just yanking your chain.
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Oh I get it...I'm supposed to engage in meaningful discussion with someone after they have called me names with your latest telling me to "piss off, loser" before you promptly edited your post. No thanks.
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"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."
That's what the bottle is for.
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
mike2 says
That's a ridiculous generalization. What's important is HOW and WHY each individual market is manipulated. Roberto got out two years too soon in '05 and is getting in two years too early now. As a result of playing it safe he's going to get to keep his shirt but he will be crying in his rice and beans.
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Huntington Beach, CA
I just feel bad for the poor kids in his classes.
Little Juan: "But Mr. aribas, you just said that 17 was a prime number last week! How did that change?"
RA: "When you've got seven houses in this town you can question me!"
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robertoaribas says
Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.
If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.
Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:
"I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"
or
"I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"
Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?
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Fort Lauderdale, FL
CDon says
I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.
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I *only* use message boards while drinking