Housing Inventory Ghost Town


By tannenbaum   Follow   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 11:01pm   9,703 views   164 comments
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/06/11/orange-county-ca-housing-inventory-ghost-town/

This post, somewhat ironically coming from a loan officer in Orange County, CA, is several months old, but remains equally relevant today and succinctly explains the completely dysfunctional real estate market of 2012.

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  1. tannenbaum


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    1   7:40am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    robertoaribas says



    As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!


    thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!


    You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

    Wow...resorting to a bunch of unwarranted childish name-calling, being an arrogrant prick (may as well return the name-calling) and taking pleasure in the supposed misfortune of people you don't even know or ever will know? All in the same post?Roberto clearly has issues. Not to mention no class whatsoever. I'd hate to be one of his tenants.

    Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him". You don't see Warren Buffett going around boasting about his fortunes, although he certainly could - it's called humility and class.

    Roberto: This post wasn't about nor intended to be all about your vast real estate holdings in greater Phoenix. I certainly wasn't inquiring about them and really could not care less. You have already established your legendary status in your own mind, been the star of far too many of your own posts and have hijacked too many others, including this one.

  2. CDon


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    2   8:49am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (6)   Dislike (1)  

    ELC says

    So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

    Not at all. The point was a very limited one refuting the contention that due to manipulation, you will have a "dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price." You absolutely can if the manipulation continues for so long that it becomes part of the market.

    So the question as to when to "invest" (and I actually kinda hate that word in this context as many here simply want to buy a place and get on with life w/o fear there is another monumental drop dead ahead) is when do you see the purported "manipulation" ending and how? Will it be quick and maybe cause a dislocation? Or will it be drawn out into a huge nothing burger?

    Now the question as to the particular "artificial" condition of underwater sellers holding out causing a dearth of inventory - had you really thought about it in 07 & 08, how else would one expect a bottom to form? Fact of the matter is, prices in some areas will not hit nominal highs for 10-20 years, meaning underwater homeowners will be a way of life for some markets for at least that long.

    And now that the powers that be have been manipulating more heavily since TARP, QE, etc. have seen the results of their manipulation turn a scorching downturn into years of stagnation, why would they suddenly change course? In essence why would they suddenly rip the band aid off, potentially destroying the stagnation they worked so hard to create in the first place?

    So the question now is what will these underwater homeowners do going forward? Absent a black swan type event, (which is a potential factor now, 10 years from now, and every other moment of our lives) will they suddenly, en masse decide that they cant take it any more, puke up short sale inventory in droves, potentially driving prices back to the stone age...

    or

    Will they do what they did to cause a bottom in the first place, which is individually, and agonizngly slowly make non-uniform decisions. To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate - basically the same decisions they individually have been making since the beginning of the bursting in 07, the arresting of the downward momentum in 09, and the stagnation of the last 3 years.

    The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

    So if you are investing, you better do it for rents - and if places dont pencil out in your area, dont invest in homes.

    And if you are waiting to buy a place to live in, do so, only because you need to get your down payment or other financial affairs in order first - or because you just arent ready. There clearly is no need to rush.

    Still if your reason to wait is because you see TPTB suddenly ripping the band aid off, and underwater homeowners capitulating en masse, creating a fantasy land of manna from heaven inventory levels and stone age prices, well, I dont know what to tell you.

  3. tannenbaum


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    3   11:22pm Tue 27 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    not worth the read... kid went to work in mom and dad's mortgage business. and that makes him a freaking economist?

    In other words, you can't necessarily discredit what he is saying, so you discredit him? Where does he claim to be an economist? BTW, it doesn't take an "economist" to observe the obvious.

  4. Bigsby


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    4   1:11am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (1)  

    robertoaribas says

    As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!

    thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!

    You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

  5. marco


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    5   5:00am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike  

    As far as the hysterical shrieking of Robertoaribas goes .. always consider this....

    "Opinions founded on prejudice are always sustained with the greatest violence"

    Oscar Wilde

  6. iwog


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    6   12:28pm Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected  

    yup1 says

    Many would argue that you are a forum destroying prick. You wont get deleted because you pay

    Right........it has nothing to do with the fact that 51 other forum members have befriended me or that I try to include content with nearly everything I post here or that I don't spam.

    It's because I donate money to keep the site running right? By the way Patrick is providing a service and since you want to use that service, I suggest that you should also help out and send him a small donation.

    Unlimited free speech should not be practiced on this forum because some people are too stupid, too arrogant, or too full of hate to be trusted with it. It's really too bad but it happens to be the truth.

  7. ELC


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    7   6:15am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Yup says

    I believe that my 144 IQ would trounce you.

    Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

  8. dodgerfanjohn


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    8   9:11am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Low inventory relative to demand leads to price increases, PERIOD. It doesn't matter why the inventory is low, the result is the same.

    You continue to repeat this over and over again without any explanation of what you believe the upper bounds of that price increase are.

    Of course the answer is that prices will rise until its profitable to built again.

    In otherwords, there is an upper cap on where prices will rise to(or at least the speed at which prices rise).

    However the way you state it....theres another phrase for that....

    "Buy now or be priced out forever".

    Which is quite hillarious since you were arguing against that exact same thing five years ago.

  9. tannenbaum


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    9   11:43am Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    mike2 says

    Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.
    it matters where it is and what it is. U did great and have been ahead of the curve for years. Make your money and let the others debate the reasons.Keep laughing all the way to the bank.


    the bears bet on the RE market and lost. The bulls have won. always ainner and loser in any economic investment.

    Yeah great job Roberto! The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.

  10. bmwman91


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    10   1:01am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    MsBennet says

    Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

    He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

  11. Goran_K


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    11   9:14am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.

  12. iwog


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    12   3:06pm Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    yup1 says

    iwog says

    I'd rather see a flame war and watch people call each other names than read all this whining.

    I know reading is actually a little hard for you DuckFace!

    Much better.

  13. ELC


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    13   12:47pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    tannenbaum says

    Just read what you have written above. You are a complete sociopath.

    Classic delusions of granduer IF he's serious and not just yanking your chain.

  14. tannenbaum


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    14   1:00pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Oh I get it...I'm supposed to engage in meaningful discussion with someone after they have called me names with your latest telling me to "piss off, loser" before you promptly edited your post. No thanks.

  15. pazuzu


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    15   1:03pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    "Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

    That's what the bottle is for.

  16. ELC


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    16   3:30pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    mike2 says

    Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.

    That's a ridiculous generalization. What's important is HOW and WHY each individual market is manipulated. Roberto got out two years too soon in '05 and is getting in two years too early now. As a result of playing it safe he's going to get to keep his shirt but he will be crying in his rice and beans.

  17. Quigley


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    17   4:10pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I just feel bad for the poor kids in his classes.
    Little Juan: "But Mr. aribas, you just said that 17 was a prime number last week! How did that change?"
    RA: "When you've got seven houses in this town you can question me!"

  18. CDon


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    18   2:50pm Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    cdon just wrote a very cogent explanation of the market... and immediately gets a dislike...
    see, that is what starts to set some people (like me) off on this site. His response was frankly one out of a hundred in terms of quality on this blog; If you don't like his premises or conclusions, explain how you see the world differently...

    Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.

    If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.

    Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:

    "I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

    or

    "I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

    Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?

  19. ELC


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    19   5:21pm Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    CDon says

    Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger.

    I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.

  20. Kevin


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    20   5:30pm Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I *only* use message boards while drinking

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