WatchSurprise: Right After The Election, New Home Sales Tumble From Downward Revised Two Year High.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-28/surprise-right-after-election-new-home-sales-tumble-downward-revised-two-year-high
There are those who may be surprised that last month's number of Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales, which was then reported at 389K, and which number hit the airwaves days before the Obama reelection, was the highest since April 2010. We are not among them, as we were fully expecting today's number to be a major revision of the September number lower - as just happened, with the whopper of a print revised far lower to 369K - but doubled down with the additional miss of expectations of Seasonally Adjusted annualized new home sales of 390K for October when in reality only 368K were sold. All these numbers are annualized.
When observed on an as is basis, in October there was a grand total of 29,000 new homes sold in the entire USA, with the Northeast representing a whopping... 2,000 of this. Oh and of the 29,000 houses sold, 9,000 were not even started.
And finally, for those who enjoy pointing out the rise in home prices driven only and exclusively by foreclosure inventory stuffing and removal of all such real estate from the open markets, both the median and average new home price ($237,700 and $278,900) printed at at the lowest since June.
Oh wait, we know: Sandy's fault. Which explains all bad data. When the data is good, it is nobody's fault.
Please point out the housing "recovery" on the chart below.
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I'm not sure why this is surprising to anyone. New home construction has been almost zero for the last 4 years and with no construction, it's hard to have sales. The inventory that is left is the garbage that may never sell due to crappy locations...
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Home sales always tumble in the winter months. Nuttin' to do with Obama.
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edvard2 says
Who mentioned Useless?
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CaptainShuddup says
You did.
Billybigrig says
I could really care less what RE does and as a disclosure I bought a house. But homes sales do in fact slow pretty much every single year so its interesting that every year people make the same claims- that homes sales are slowing. Of course they are. Its the winter.
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edvard2 says
Wow, I didn't realize September was winter in the U.S..... Thanks for the weather education!!
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CaptainShuddup says
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Call it Crazy says
The election was in November.
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edvard2 says
You REALLY have reading comprehension issues..... the article was stating data from SEPTEMBER!!! No wonder you voted for Obama....
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Typing in ALL CAPS doesn't correct the issue with the post that
"Right After The Election, New Home Sales Tumble From Downward Revised"
Like I said- sales ALWAYS slow or fall in the winter. Oh- and BTW, Obama won. SO get used to it.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
Ok, before the frothing idiots writing on this thread continue on:
1. New home sales are recorded when the sale is ORDERED. Not when the home is completed and sold....
2. The number has always been quite noisy, and is usually released with the caveat of + or - 15%... It has been that way for years.
3. A revision from 389,000 to 369,000 is 20,000 homes less or 5.1%. This is neither groundbreaking, nefarious, or anything anyone with half a brain would take serioiusly...
New home sales are low. They have slightly increased over the past several months but remain low... This is hardly a surprise when in half of the country, you can buy an existing home for alot less than a builder can build. I for example bought a 3/2 2 car garage on a freaking golf course for $60K on the westside of town, when the same size and type of home is going for $150K in the new community half a mile away...
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I guess my confusion here is that what does homes sales have to do with the outcome of the election? Nothing.
But before I continue, let me say that I waited probably longer than anyone else on this forum to buy a home. As in I waited for well over 12 years where from afar I watched this thing inflate and deflate. Yeah- I totally get the frustration and irritation over the real estate thing. I still think the system is more or less heavily controlled because obviously selling houses is a literal gold mine for both government and business as it means revenue from multiple angles. I know what its like to hopelessly watch home prices sail off into the stratosphere. Its especially bad in the Bay Area and its still pretty bad. Trust me... I was THERE for a very, very long time.
That doesn't mean that sales also don't tend to slide in the winter. I know because I watched those numbers like a hawk for well over a decade. Every single year, surprise-surprise, sales fell. Why? Because a lot of people who have kids buy in the summer right before schools open. There is a massive flurry of activity. And then in the winter comes the doldrums.
I also have a lot of friends who simply quit looking because there is so little inventory around here that they were simply getting out-bid on every house. Things are still nutty in the Bay Area.
In the end I'm all for a normal, steady, and more stable housing market. My house is what I live in. My retirement savings and investments are what my investments are. Real estate seldom makes as good of an investment as stocks and bonds and thus has proven to be true more or less for the past 100+ years. So in the end I could genuinely care less what value my house might be at. I don't plan to sell it anyway so what good is it to me as to what its worth?
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Tustin, CA
The issue is that the numbers are high before the election in order to promote the idea that there is a "recovery" underway. The fact that they were revised downward after the election shows that a lot of the numbers touted as indicators of returning economic health were not to be trusted.
And before anyone jumps on me by saying "economic numbers are constantly revised" I'd like to point out that his begs the question as to why they are published before they can be verified.
Pump and dump, baby while .gov keeps the sheeple high on hopium.
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hllnwlz says
Actually, the new home sales number are realed with a +/-15% error disclaimer attached to them... They are assuming the reader has at least a high school understanding of statistics... I guess that assumption may be in error.
hllnwlz says
you are clueless. First off, these bureaus are staffed by technocrats, not political appointees. Second off, you're thesis is ludicrous on the surface...
You really think that tons of people went to the polls saying "hmmm, housing just came in good, guess I'll change my vote from Rmoney to Obama..." yeah! as if in this divided election, that number made any damn difference at all!!!!
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edvard2 says
Yes the Bush legacy is safe. Between Bush and Boehner there's nothing Obama can do but blame. Four more years of the same. Wake me when the Oil hole opens up in the gulf again. We're due any day now.
This wont be over until Obama Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow inventory.
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CaptainShuddup says
Ha Ha.... boy, you're wound up today!!
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Sunnyvale, CA
All economic statistics are revised. They are often based on inadequate surveys as we demand new numbers every week or every month. It is much ado about nothing. When it is government that supplies the numbers, we have government employees we should let go. When it is private industry who supplies the numbers, we should always consider the source.