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Who will the boomers sell their homes to?

By Goran_K   Follow   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 9:08am   4,820 views   96 comments
In Irvine CA 92614   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (1)  

Over half of new college grads unemployed and in heavy debt
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/11/approaching_crunch_time_on_the_student_loan_debacle.html

The FY 2009 three-year default rates -- which the Department views as more indicative of ultimate defaults -- was 13.4%, essentially the same as the 13.8% for the FY 2008 cohort. In private non-profit institutions, the three-year default rate was 7.5%, at public institutions it was 11%, and at private for-profit colleges it hit 22.7%.
There were 218 schools that actually managed to produce students who had three-year default rates of over 30%, and 37 schools that had rates over 40%!
As bad as these stats are, remember that they do not count borrowers who were allowed to postpone payments due to unemployment or other hardships.
Given that over half of all recent college grads are unemployed (or employed only at jobs not requiring a college education), we can expect those default rates to rapidly rise.

Also take into account median household debt is STILL twice as much as it was in 2002-2003, and that's after years of loan mods, refinancing, etc.

High debt.
No job prospects.
Possible bad credit from default.

Will this generation actually be able to buy homes anytime soon?

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1. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 12 threads 778 comments Dublin, CA

   57   4:30pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Quigley says Hey Sface, "my mom is a boomer. Her permanant living cost in San Francisco is already cheaper than anywhere in the world. She is not going anywhere, the home will be passed down." We have a supermajority of Democrats in California, as of the last election. As soon as the newest members are sworn in next year, they will begin the task of dismantling prop 13. Your moms taxes will go up about ten fold, if not more. I hope you like living with her, because that's your future. The landed elite will have to start paying their fair share of the property taxes. No more squatting on high value land and paying like its in the deepest darkest ghetto of Oakland. I seriously doubt that prop 13 will be altered for primary residences of households making under 250K. Above that, maybe. I can also see some changes to commerical real estate tax policy. But I would be seriously surprised if any seniors were affected.

2. zzyzzx Follow Befriend (9) 416 threads 4,138 comments Baltimore, MD

   58   4:40pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nobody in my immediate family has a mortgage, except for the one who lives in CA (near SF).

3. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

   59   4:52pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says To retire, most boomers will need to sell, and that's assuming they have equit sell and rent? I doubt anybody can rent for cheaper. I thought we are talking about when they die...where do the houses go? - I say they go to the kids.

4. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   60   5:56pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SubOink says sell and rent? No, downsize. Boomers don't need 4 bedrooms (or even 3) when the nest is empty.

5. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

   61   6:04pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Not 100% true. My parents will have their 4/4 in San Jose paid off in a few years (could have paid it off a decade ago but were investing for retirement in things that returned better than the interest rate on their loan). They have no intent or desire to sell. They like having the space, not to mention that Prop 13 keeps their property tax somewhere around a 1981 level. Now, my parents are FAR more fiscally conservative than the "typical" boomer, but they are certainly not alone. They are 58 and 59.

6. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 30 threads 1,488 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   62   7:06pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David Losh says The only thing that Real Estate is good for as far as the government is concerned is jobs. it's also an easy way for the Fed to inject $500B/yr into the money supply without anybody noticing or caring. SFH construction is at a rate of 600,000 per year, so the Fed is adding $800,000 per housing start. It's not just construction the Fed wants, the Fed wants dilution, a weaker dollar.

7. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

   63   8:15pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Goran_K says SubOink says sell and rent? No, downsize. Boomers don't need 4 bedrooms (or even 3) when the nest is empty. So they basically trade with somebody that wants to upsize. What's the problem again?

8. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

   64   8:23pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   SubOink says So they basically trade with somebody that wants to upsize. What's the problem again? I guess you didn't read the top of the thread... here's your answer to your question: Goran_K says High debt. No job prospects. Possible bad credit from default. Will this generation actually be able to buy homes anytime soon? That's why the boomers don't have anyone to sell to....

9. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   65   9:10pm Wed 28 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says Also take into account median household debt is STILL twice as much as it was in 2002-2003, and that's after years of loan mods, refinancing, etc. There wasn't any principal forgiveness, so of course this is the case. The effective debt payments are down significantly lower though.

10. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    66   12:23am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Kevin says The effective debt payments are down significantly lower though. Not enough to pass this kidney stone. They need to get much smaller.

11. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    67   1:34am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says Kevin says The effective debt payments are down significantly lower though. Not enough to pass this kidney stone. They need to get much smaller. Given the drop in the rate of foreclosures, I don't believe you. Debt is only a problem if you can't afford to pay it. If you are being charged 0% interest, there is no reason to ever pay it and it isn't a burden on you anyway (it's just free money). All of those refinances allowed people who were unable to keep up on payments to suddenly be able to do so. Now they have a bit of extra cash every month that they can use to buy other things that they need, pay down other debts, or save for retirement. So, to answer the original question, boomers will sell their homes to people currently in their 30s and 40s. People in their 30s and 40s will sell their homes to people in their 20's and 30's. Many of them will do neither -- 30% of home buyers stay in the same home for the rest of their life. Yes, some people with bad timing are going to still have a bad time. Yes, people who made overly optimistic projections about the value of their properties at retirement are going to have to rethink vacation plans. Yes, we will probably revert to home ownership rates in the 50% range as the norm. But the fundamental model of housing hasn't changed much.

12. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    68   2:19am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Kevin says Given the drop in the rate of foreclosures Foreclosures have dropped, but that's an artificial situation. The average squatting time for homes in New York is nearing 3 years, it's over 1 year in California. Just because the banks are allowing people to squat longer doesn't mean people are suddenly becoming current in their loans.

13. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    69   3:40am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Default rates have fallen from 5.5% in 2009 to less than 1% (which is the normal default rate). People *are* more current on their mortgage. The people who couldn't afford the homes that they were living in have been flushed from the system. The people on the edge have refinanced. Affordability is well above historical averages thanks to ridiculously low interest rates. Betting against this trend is a great way to make poor financial decisions. While I don't believe that there will be any meaningful increase in prices over the next 5-10 years, borrowing money is the cheapest it has ever been or is likely to ever be in our lifetimes. Those who take advantage of this cheap money will do extraordinarily well. Unless you have some amazing abilities that people will pay you lots of money for, or are born rich, leverage is the only real path to financial independence.

14. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    70   7:33am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Kevin says Unless you have some amazing abilities that people will pay you lots of money for, or are born rich, leverage is the only real path to financial independence. I think you're right, leverage is all about risk, and those risk paying off. Housing however has never historically been a very exciting (or very profitable) investment. In fact more money was lost during the 2000s bubble than injected into the economy because of it, which is logical; there are always more losers than winners when it comes to gambling. That's why well run casinos are great.

15. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    71   7:38am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says Wrong. This is great data, and so far it looks to be in line with everything I've read.

16. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    72   7:58am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Bellingham Bill says the Fed wants dilution, a weaker dollar. The Fed wanted inflation. The Fed desperately tried to devalue the dollar, and is still trying, but it didn't happen. All they did was create more debt for more people, and more consumers are going along borrowing more. So, the massive infusion of cash only went into bank reserves, and corporate profits. Speculation in commodities added greater, and greater wealth. The dollars found safe havens outside of the United States to be sheltered from taxes. Now the Fed is buying Mortgage Backed Securities which is giving incentive to banks to lend more. The end result is that as long as the consumer plays the game well they can make money by paying off the debts they accumulate. The consumer has a chance to get off the debt cycle if they look at the numbers. If they make wise financial choices to borrow modestly, and pay off the debt, there is a chance to leverage.

17. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

    73   8:21am Thu 29 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says Kevin says Default rates have fallen from 5.5% in 2009 to less than 1% (which is the normal default rate). People *are* more current on their mortgage. Wrong. http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/MortgageMonitor/201209MortgageMonitor/Oct2012.pdf Interesting charts and data.... Anyone who remotely thinks we are in a housing recovery and are heading in the right direction should take a read of those charts!!!

18. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    74   8:12am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Over 70% of boomers expect to work PAST 65 and even past retirement: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500202_162-57323056/most-baby-boomers-expect-to-work-after-65-poll/ Wong Ulrich said, "Since the poll was taken in March and then the next poll was in early October before the gains of October, the Dow (Jones Industrial Average) was down 10 percent. So it's an additional big hit -- 62 percent of those surveyed said they took a big hit with one or many of their retirement vehicles. For example, in terms of IRA and their work IRAs, that they have lost on average 42 percent, 41 percent in personal investments and real estate --we don't necessarily think about real estate as an investment -- but that's something that we have all depended on as a foundation; 29 percent of respondents ... have lost value and equity there."

19. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    75   9:00am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Call it Crazy says housing recovery We are in a housing recovery, it's just different from what people might think. Prices will drop in many areas that are right now living in a dream. There are parts of Washington State where property prices sky rocketed and now that those areas have dropped 30% from the peak it's like everything will be OK. It's not OK. Prices went from $60K to $200K and now dropped to $120K, but that's still double the price. Nothing warrants the price increases, but thousands of home owners have loans in excess of those amounts. In city properties may have dropped 30%, but they didn't double in price during the peak. So, some in city properties may be a pretty safe bet. Some reality, some time, will creep in, but I think most people at this point will simply bite the bullet, and pay the debt. Buyers have choices. They can buy below the means they have, pay off the mortgage they get, rent that out, and move up, or sell, and move up. This is the way it was before every one got to be so smart about "leveraging" property. Real Estate is a meat head business. It's not rocket sceince. Your goal is to beat the bank out of as much interest as possible. It's only an asset if you have equity, and the only way to create equity is to pay down the debt.

20. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    76   9:01am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   David Losh says Real Estate is a meat head business. It's not rocket sceince. Your goal is to beat the bank out of as much interest as possible. It's only an asset if you have equity, and the only way to create equity is to pay down the debt. Exactly.

21. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 12 threads 778 comments Dublin, CA

    77   10:43am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David Losh says It's not rocket sceince. Your goal is to beat the bank out of as much interest as possible. It's only an asset if you have equity, and the only way to create equity is to pay down the debt I completely agree. That's why I have always been a proponent of pre-paying the principal. This approach is the antithesis of taking out helocs or equity line of credits or only paying the monthly minimum and "investing the difference" in the stockmarket. The faster that someone can eliminate the mortgage payments the faster they can achieve financial freedom that will never be experienced by renters or by those who take full 30 years to pay off the debt.

22. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    78   10:50am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David Losh says It's not rocket sceince. Your goal is to beat the bank out of as much interest as possible completely disagree. I will never want to pay off a loan that is 2.5% net of tax, or something like that. A rate lower than inflation. If an earthquake wipes out your home, that's all your money (albeit you should buy insurance). If an earthquake wipes out mine, it is the banks and I keep the money (I don't need to buy insurance). There's no prepay penalty for these things so you can pay it off anytime.

23. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    79   11:11am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   SFace says I will never want to pay off a loan that is 2.5% net of tax and the bank wants you to pay them that 2.5% interest for as long as they can convince you to do that. The fact is that we past the point of appreciation so your only equity will come from principal reduction. Amortizing the loan quicker is the the best way, if maybe not the only way to create equity. I read a lot of comments about how people are using the banks money for a "leverage" position, but that's a crock. You only get leverage if you are getting a return. The people getting a return on your 2.5% interest payment is the bank.

24. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    80   11:25am Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   David Losh says and the bank wants you to pay them that 2.5% interest for as long as they can convince you to do that. Would you lend me 1M very long term at 2.5% knowing I can prepay anytime and if SFTH (say disaster or house worth 250K), you can have the house? David Losh says The fact is that we past the point of appreciation so your only equity will come from principal reduction. I only need as much equity to secure the best interest rate. having money in house equity and/or stocks is still asset. Besides your statement is just a guess. My appraisal on a recent refi came back 20% higher than Feb2012. The person across from my office came back 25% more (Burlingame). David Losh says Amortizing the loan quicker is the the best way, if maybe not the only way to create equity. Same as above. Earning capital gains/dividends and reinvesting it creates assets even faster. David Losh says I read a lot of comments about how people are using the banks money for a "leverage" position, but that's a crock. You only get leverage if you are getting a return. My risk is limited to 20%, your risk is more because you want to own more of the house. Just like I don't own Apple shares, I rather buy their options at 1-2% of the cost. David Losh says The people getting a return on your 2.5% interest payment is the bank. Bank needs to make money too, but that doesn't mean I don't make money too. It does not have to be a win/lose The method is different. I do demand that my rates are prime, prime othewise it is a dealbreaker.

25. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    81   1:28pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says Would you lend me 1M very long term at 2.5% I'm not a bank, but sure, why not? There is no risk to the bank in today's market place, because the Notes have been secured, sold, insured, and are now being bought by the Federal government. So, sure, why not? SFace says My appraisal on a recent refi came back 20% higher than Feb2012 Of course you can always get more from the bank on your promise to pay. Banks like payers, and your appraisal means nothing except for a refinance. Now, that money you can invest elsewhere, and that would be leveraged, but the family home remains in jeopardy, as a liability. Keeping the family home as a liability makes no sense what so ever. It's not smart, it would be much better to rent. The only way the family home becomes an asset is by equity.

26. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,138 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    82   1:32pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   SFace says Bank needs to make money too The bank is the enemy. You take the money, make the return, pay off the bank, and move onto the next deal. Holding long term debt ten years ago might have worked, but today it's a huge gamble.

27. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    83   1:33pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Any savvy accountants here? If the Debt Forgiveness Act isn't extended, I know short sellers will get hefty 1099s from the IRS for the windfall they got by short selling. What about those who get foreclosed on? This could really complicate things for those who pig out on credit, and then try to "strategically default".

28. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (16) 766 threads 7,711 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

    84   2:33pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Goran_K says Who will the boomers sell their homes to? They won't. They'll leave them to their Millennial kids who will either move in or sell it to other Millennials are a much, much lower price. I guess that's the solution to the problem. Get rid of the generation that insists its houses are worth 10,000 times what they paid for it.

29. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 12 threads 778 comments Dublin, CA

    85   3:34pm Fri 30 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If you intend to keep the home aka capital in the family, then your holding period is technically infinite. Of course, you can't control what your kids will do what you die, but nonetheless, it's sort of true. The implication is that via infinite holding period, the buy vs rent is clearly in favor of buying since it normally takes 5-7 years to break even vs comparable rental. Obviously this point of view does not apply to DINKs or to those who never plan to have kids.

30. carducci22 Follow Befriend 1 threads 42 comments

    86   8:05am Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   2.5% interest is a myth. Where did you get that number from? Did anyone get that rate? From whom? I ran to the bank to be told; eeeeee, the thing is criteria bla bla bla. Endless stories. Give me a break!

31. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    87   9:07am Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Yeah I don't think most people will be getting 2.5% for purchase loans. MAYBE refinancing.

32. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    88   9:55am Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   carducci22 says 2.5% interest is a myth. Where did you get that number from? 2.5% is net of tax deduction as that is the true cash cost of the loan. Most people who carry large loan amount don't pay more than that, net of tax. The other is using floating rate.

33. carducci22 Follow Befriend 1 threads 42 comments

    89   6:17pm Sat 1 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Could you be more specific pls?

34. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    90   8:02am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   zesta says Your Center for Economic and Policy report was released in FEB 2009! A lot has changed in 3+ years, C/S is reporting 6 consecutive months of gains and underwater homeowners are trending downwards. That 3.5m in Dec 2011 is probably less now. Nope. Not much has changed: http://www.housingwire.com/news/monday-morning-cup-coffee-homeowners-over-50-fall-foreclosures

35. TechGromit Follow Befriend (6) 85 threads 969 comments 44 male Egg Harbor City, NJ

    91   8:43am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says Gay billionaire Chindians will 10x the price of townhouses in Stockton before Christmas and sell to aliens from outer space who shit solid gold. Boomers will all retire as billionaires and spend their golden years shooting at their grandchildren in Death from Above tours in gutted, hellish cities that would make Camden look like Monte Carlo. Remind me again why your not on my ignore list. Nothing you say makes much sense, but it's occasionally funny. My father-in-law keeps saying he's going to Will his house to us. A house we neither want or need. We can barely afford the Mortgage and taxes on the house we have, what do we need another for? Even a house owned free and clear still have taxes and other expenses associated with it, if it ever does end up in our possession, we will just sell it.

36. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,307 comments Premium

    92   9:03am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   carducci22 says Could you be more specific pls? Sure, I just refi to a 5 year fixed at 2.75%. I am also in solid AMT terrortory with 2 kids and too much state income tax and property tax. So my tax bracket is 28% federal and 9.8% California, combined it is 37.8%, for simplicity I just say 35%. MID is deductable for both regular, AMT and state income tax. State does not have AMT. 2.75% * (1-0.35) = 1.79%. My effective borrowing cost is 1.79%. If I borrowed 600K, my interest expense = $10,680 a year. 16,500 paid to the bank, but $6000 less income tax from uncle Sam and Auntie Sally. I don't think a lot of people get a 5 year fixed, but even if I used a 30 year fixed 3.5% * 65% = 2.275%. Hence, effective borrowing cost is lower than inflation.

37. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    93   9:06am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Dan8267 says They won't. They'll leave them to their Millennial kids who will either move in or sell it to other Millennials are a much, much lower price. I guess that's the solution to the problem. Get rid of the generation that insists its houses are worth 10,000 times what they paid for it. I like the way you think!

38. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 204 comments

    94   10:11am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Goran_K says zesta says Your Center for Economic and Policy report was released in FEB 2009! A lot has changed in 3+ years, C/S is reporting 6 consecutive months of gains and underwater homeowners are trending downwards. That 3.5m in Dec 2011 is probably less now. Nope. Not much has changed: http://www.housingwire.com/news/monday-morning-cup-coffee-homeowners-over-50-fall-foreclosures Wow, newsflash! More delinquencies and foreclosures in 2011 compared to 2007. In case you haven't noticed we're in Dec 2012. Do you think there were more foreclosures of people over 50 in 2009 or 2012?

39. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,522 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    95   10:26am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   I think over the past 3 years, not much has changed to improve boomer situations. :)

40. mdovell Follow Befriend (4) 28 threads 776 comments

    96   10:47am Mon 3 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   They might not want to sell but it might depend as to how large their bills are and in particular medical bills. Medicare does not pay for everything and social security is not an investment vehicle. You also have to wonder how much in the way of larger items might be sold off. Boats, 2nd or 3rd cars, motorcycles. Perhaps reminiscent of larger/encompassing hobbies. Coin/comic/stamp collections, collected artwork, higher end audio vision (hello dirt cheap Tivoli!) Certainly some might be donated to libraries (books, music, video) or museums (art or anything historic) but there is only so much to go around.

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