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You can clearly see the bump upwards in the middle of 2009. This is about six months after the first 2008 foreclosure moratoriums kicked in. Once the inventory sold off, supply dried up and prices began to stabilize.
Then, there was kind of a very slow bleed until the beginning of 2012. I still haven’t come to grips with what exactly happened to trigger such a change… what factors existed in February of 2012 that didn’t in September of 2011?
Anyways, the REAL story here is that the party may be ending. Even though the most expensive Tier is continuing to see prices run up, the Mid and Bottom Tiers have seen declines in the second half of the year.
It will be interesting to see which direction 2013 takes us.
http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/12/03/charting-danvilles-home-price-history-by-price-tiers/
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Everyone knows where this is going:
CANNIBAL ANARCHY.
You're either chewing on a survivor's skull or it's chewing on yours.
Choose.
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Laguna Beach, CA
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Thanks for the data Greg. I think the recent bull run lost its legs in September as well.
Probably downward from here until the FED and Obama find a new crutch. I'm guessing another tax credit may be in the works.
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Are those charts seasonally adjusted? If not it could be showing normal spring and summer price increases and fall and winter declines.
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gregpfielding says
Bidding wars from low inventory maybe???
Actually, knowing the number of sales might be telling, a smaller number of sales can skew the data...
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Danville, CA
gregpfielding's website
yup1 says
Nope. Raw numbers. Certainly there is some seasonality at play, but not enough to matter. And that wouldn't account for the divergence between the top and lower tiers lately.
Here is a spreadsheet with the raw data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AkHCZUgzOOdldENVYi13bHdmb1JXUEs5NFJkWEk3OHc&output=html
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Danville, CA
gregpfielding's website
Call it Crazy says
Inventory has been ridiculously low. Right now there are only 42 active single family homes in Danville. Historically there would be 120-150 this time of the year.
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gregpfielding says
Is that last years number or an actual historical average?
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Danville, CA
gregpfielding's website
yup1 says
It's tough to go back and pull snapshots of what was actively for sale in the past. I can tell you that I've been in the business for a decade and Danville usually has 200-250 or so listings in the Spring and Summer and about half of that in the lows of Winter.
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Interesting.
Who really knows what is healthy when the market has been totally distorted for at least the last 10 years.
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San Ramon, CA
Interest rates were higher last year. Realtors and brokers are trying to get people to lock into a monthly payment instead of looking at the total price. I think this is also running up prices. I see homes in Danville that would be in the 400 to 500K range normally, but are priced in the 600 to 700K range. It seems that sellers are still all over the map in their pricing, not even looking at comparables. I see one awesome 700K home and total rehab priced the same.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
holy tomatoes, the low tier there would be my high tier here!!!
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Gap between poor and rich is growing. The way I see it is,housing in Danville is less affordable to poor then the rich!
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Oakland, CA
gregpfielding says
Been wondering the same for a while myself. This is much more pronounded in the mid to lower tier of real estate in the Bay Area than what you are showing in Danville.
gregpfielding says
Interesting. Why would this be? It makes me wonder what the volume is in each of this three tiers... Also, just curious Greg, what's your source for this data?
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Dublin, CA
Danville is overpriced, but still a better value than san mateo and various other locations in peninsula. Peninsula is the most overpriced region in bay area not including S.F.
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Oakland, CA
dublin hillz says
Right, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Marin and some parts of Alameda counties are beyond hope. That leaves Contra Costa County unless you are willing to venture north (borderline out of the Bay Area)
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dublin hillz says
Most expensive but not overpriced.
The pennisula is epitome of location.
to the North is San Francisco with the "firms" and saleforce.com and web2.0 headquarter
to the South is old horseman, Cisco, HP, Intel coupled with new horsemen like Google, Facebook and Apple.
In the Pennisula itself, there is Oracle and VISA.
Between San Francisco and Silicon Valley, approximately 30% of the VC money funnels here. 1% of the population but 30% of the VC money.
The pennisula is Ocean, Mountain, valley and the bay. The area between 280 and 101 is 3-5 miles wide, that's it. Essentially no new SFH will be built ever. R&D space is 200M sq feet. Even if its 20% vacancy, 160M sq ft of R&D space are leased and utilized in small county.
Buying in the pennisula will be much better long term. In the short term, you'll be closer to premium job access, in the long term, house price will be the last to drop and first to rise.
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San Jose, CA
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I'm looking out my windows and within a 5 miles radius I see Cisco, SanDisk, Western Digital, Hitachi, LSI, Maxtor, Flextronics, Adaltec, KLAC, JDSU, Ericson, Broadcom, Yahoo, Intersil, Seagate, Xicor, just to name a few. What the hell happened to Redback Networks and Foundry Networks???