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Real House Prices Back To 1999-2000 Levels


By JFP   Follow   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 12:37am PST   4,977 views   91 comments
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According to Calculated Risk, real house prices, and the price-to-rent ratio, are back to late 1999 to 2000 levels. Does anyone seriously expect a drop below these levels? See http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/comment-on-house-prices-real-house.html

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121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (2)     Comment 1

Yuup. May slide some more.

Should of happened sooner and faster.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 2

Given the policies of the Fed, I think if you are waiting for a greater decline to buy, you are going to be waiting a long time.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 3

No I am not.

I left California after the doubling and tripping of property prices, while incomes remained stagnant and taxes and gas went up.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

The policies of the FED are hurting real estate.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 5

What trust is left in the system?

Do you trust the chain of ownership?

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:39am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 6

How can you hurt an inanimate object? Their policies have different effects on different groups of people. Right now, they are helping real estate owners and hurting renters and potential buyers.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:40am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

121212 says

What trust is left in the system?

Do you trust the chain of ownership?

Why shouldn't I? People all around me are buying and selling houses with no title problems.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:43am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

JFP says

Why shouldn't I? People all around me are buying and selling houses with no title problems.

If you say so.

My father-in-law is the VP of Chicago Tittle.

It's a disaster zone.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:45am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

121212 says

JFP says

Why shouldn't I? People all around me are buying and selling houses with no title problems.

If you say so.

My father-in-law is the VP of Chicago Tittle.

Which is significant, how?

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

Beau Biden, Delaware Attorney General, Sues Big Banks' Mortgage Registry

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/27/beau-biden-mortgage-registry-lawsuit-banks_n_1062635.html

Homeowner confusion arose from the fact that MERS assumed title to the mortgage instruments associated with the loans that its member organizations were bundling and selling off as securities. Yet MERS, according to the complaint, failed to ensure proper transfer of the mortgages, leading it to foreclose upon houses without the authority to do so. Homeowners trying to fight off foreclosure were hampered by the convoluted chain of title -- in other words, it wasn't clear who was actually foreclosing on them.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

JFP says

Which is significant, how?

MERS!

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

Are you in Real Estate?

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

121212 says

Beau Biden, Delaware Attorney General, Sues Big Banks' Mortgage Registry

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/27/beau-biden-mortgage-registry-lawsuit-banks_n_1062635.html

Homeowner confusion arose from the fact that MERS assumed title to the mortgage instruments associated with the loans that its member organizations were bundling and selling off as securities. Yet MERS, according to the complaint, failed to ensure proper transfer of the mortgages, leading it to foreclose upon houses without the authority to do so. Homeowners trying to fight off foreclosure were hampered by the convoluted chain of title -- in other words, it wasn't clear who was actually foreclosing on them.

That's a problem if you are being foreclosed on, or perhaps if you are buying foreclosed properties. If you are not, it's not an issue.

CaptainShuddup   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)     Comment 14

121212 says

Do you trust the chain of ownership?

Yes, what I don't trust is all of the assholes that is keen to redefine everything for everyone else.

JFP says

Does anyone seriously expect a drop below these levels?

Only on paper. Prices could get so low, that no body sells.
If my house on paper said it was only worth $5.00 then what motive would I ever have to sell it? I would give it to my neighbor first.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:51am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

CaptainShuddup says

Yes, what I don't trust is all of the assholes that is keen to redefine everything for everyone else.

Like MERS!

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

JFP says

That's a problem if you are being foreclosed on, or perhaps if you are buying foreclosed properties. If you are not, it's not an issue.

Not an issue, your blind, you have no idea of the scope and impact this is having on the entire real estate industry.

This impacts "EVERYONE" who owns property.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:55am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

121212 says

JFP says

That's a problem if you are being foreclosed on, or perhaps if you are buying foreclosed properties. If you are not, it's not an issue.

Not an issue, your blind, you have no idea of the scope and impact this is havening on the entire real estate industry.

This effects "EVERYONE" who owns property.

I've followed the MERS story closely, but it clearly hasn't had the impact that a lot of people thought it would have. If it was affecting the real estate market substantially in my area, I would know about it, because my neighbors wouldn't be able to sell their houses. They are all having no trouble doing so. So, why should I care about MERS?

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 18

JFP says

I've followed the MERS story closely, but it clearly hasn't had the impact that a lot of people thought it would have. If it was affecting the real estate market substantially in my area, I would know about it, because my neighbors wouldn't be able to sell their houses. They are all having no trouble doing so. So, why should I care about MERS?

It has been a contributing factor to the $7 Trillion loss real estate has suffered over the past 3 1/2 yrs.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

JFP says

Given the policies of the Fed, I think if you are waiting for a greater decline to buy, you are going to be waiting a long time.

I agree, at least 2 more years and think of all the rent money you will waist in 2 years! Buy now cause people in the BA are only getting richer and smarter.

121212   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 2:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

Did you ignore the "Beau Biden, Delaware Attorney General, Sues Big Banks' Mortgage Registry" story?

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 4:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

121212 says

Did you ignore the "Beau Biden, Delaware Attorney General, Sues Big Banks' Mortgage Registry" story?

What is there to ignore? The suit was filed in 2011, and has had no effect on the real estate market.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 4:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

RentingForHalfTheCost says

JFP says

Given the policies of the Fed, I think if you are waiting for a greater decline to buy, you are going to be waiting a long time.

I agree, at least 2 more years and think of all the rent money you will waist in 2 years! Buy now cause people in the BA are only getting richer and smarter.

Is this supposed to be a serious comment?

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 4:24am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 23

@donjumpsuit

Thanks. That's a helpful graph. I agree the CPI is flawed, but all indexes have problems. I'm also not sure that 140 is that unsustainable in the Bay Area given the continuing internet bubble.

bmwman91   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 4:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

JFP says

I'm also not sure that 140 is that unsustainable in the Bay Area given the continuing internet bubble.

If inventories stay where they are, house prices will continue their upward trajectory in the SFBA. There are EASILY more people with the financial resources and willingness to support much higher prices than there are decent properties available. Demand is probably somewhere between the historical norm or a little below that, but inventories are waaaaaay below the historical norm. So: supply

IF, and it is a big if, the government stops doling out easy-money loans or interest rates rise without being accompanied by inflation (which is somewhere between unlikely and impossible), things could reverse. It would knock out the entire segment of buyers that only care about the monthly payment on a house. If inventories were to increase back to historical norms, that would also put a roof over prices. For now, the Fed has been very effective at driving investors of all sizes into RE, and there is a lot of momentum there that will also keep pushing prices. Rising house prices are part of openly-stated public and monetary policy. Obama and Bernanke have outright said so. It'll take a big hiccup in the economy to diminish the efficacy of those policies.

zzyzzx   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 12:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 25

As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation.

Problem with this logic is that house price inflation tracks wage inflation. Therefore adjusted for inflation, a $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $200,000 today!

New Renter   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 1:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

JFP says

Is this supposed to be a serious comment?

From a guy with the handle "RentingForHalfTheCost? I think not.

JFP   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 1:53pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

zzyzzx says

As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation.

Problem with this logic is that house price inflation tracks wage inflation. Therefore adjusted for inflation, a $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $200,000 today!

Right. That's what he is saying. Real prices are at the same level as the year 2000.

HEY YOU   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 5:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

121212 says

What trust is left in the system?

Do you trust the chain of ownership?

The only way I'll have trust in a purchase, is that I receive the wet ink mortgage & wet ink promissory note at closing. If it's not there, might have a problem in the future. I don't trust title insurance. Can they back all their policies.If I buy today & they go under tomorrow, FMTT.

Kevin   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 6:34pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

zzyzzx says

As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation.

Problem with this logic is that house price inflation tracks wage inflation. Therefore adjusted for inflation, a $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $200,000 today!

It is much cheaper to buy a $275,000 house today than it was to buy a $200,000 house in January 2000. $1209 vs. $987 @ 20% down.

Not only that, tax rates are much lower, so even if wages are stagnate people can afford more!

Anybody counting on a big decline in national prices is an idiot. Inevitably it's SFBA people who can't see beyond that backwards ass crazy town.

Kevin   Thu, 27 Dec 2012, 6:36pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

HEY YOU says

121212 says

What trust is left in the system?

Do you trust the chain of ownership?

The only way I'll have trust in a purchase, is that I receive the wet ink mortgage & wet ink promissory note at closing. If it's not there, might have a problem in the future. I don't trust title insurance. Can they back all their policies.If I buy today & they go under tomorrow, FMTT.

Or, more likely, nothing happens. Every single case I've ever heard of of title problems came from people with crazy complex mortgages (and second mortgages) who had been foreclosed on.

zzyzzx   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 12:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

Kevin says

Not only that, tax rates are much lower,

Not property taxes.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 12:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 32

JFP says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

JFP says

Given the policies of the Fed, I think if you are waiting for a greater decline to buy, you are going to be waiting a long time.

I agree, at least 2 more years and think of all the rent money you will waist in 2 years! Buy now cause people in the BA are only getting richer and smarter.

Is this supposed to be a serious comment?

Yes, run out now and give you money to any owner. They worked hard to keep the house from falling apart and deserve all your money. Give then 100k over asking and don't ask any questions. Then become a slave to the bank and watch as the owners drive off in their new Mercedes. They worked so hard for your money you have nothing to do but smile and wave. God love them, they are the ones that shall inherit the earth.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 12:51am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

Kevin says

It is much cheaper to buy a $275,000 house today than it was to buy a $200,000 house in January 2000. $1209 vs. $987 @ 20% down.

The 20% down is not cheaper, neither is the property tax, HOA (if any), maintenance, insurance, etc. The debt for the free money is only part of your worries.

Kevin   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 3:59am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 34

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Kevin says

It is much cheaper to buy a $275,000 house today than it was to buy a $200,000 house in January 2000. $1209 vs. $987 @ 20% down.

The 20% down is not cheaper, neither is the property tax, HOA (if any), maintenance, insurance, etc. The debt for the free money is only part of your worries.

Down payment difference is not relevant. Even with fha its much cheaper to buy. Property taxes are flat in half of states, and up less than the declines in income taxes. Given that we are talking about it being 10-15% cheaper today, there is a lot of headroom.

The fact is its cheaper to own today than in 2000. I know you guys live in a fantasy world where housing is always more expensive than it used to be, but reality is knocking.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 7:28am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

Kevin says

Down payment difference is not relevant.

Please send the difference of 20% of 275K verses 200K to my savings account if it is not relevant. Lets see that is 20% of 75K = $15,000! Nice, I'll email you the account numbers directly. Man, I can't wait. I'll use the money to do an irrelevant trip around the world. I'll eat irrelevant pasta and drink wine in Italy, I'll walk on the completely irrelevant China wall, and lastly surf the Australia waves, which as we all know don't mean shit. :)

Waiting for the 15K with irrelevant honesty and modesty.
Your humble servant and admirer,
Poor renter folk

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 7:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

Kevin says

I know you guys live in a fantasy world where housing is always more expensive than it used to be, but reality is knocking.

Reality is knocking only in a fantasy world. Reality is a place we are going to be soon whether you like it or not. Many will be going kicking and screaming, and some will say "I told you so". Good luck on the journey to mediocre.

Kevin   Fri, 28 Dec 2012, 7:56am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Please send the difference of 20% of 275K verses 200K to my savings account if it is not relevant. Lets see that is 20% of 75K = $15,000! Nice, I'll email you the account numbers directly. Man, I can't wait. I'll use the money to do an irrelevant trip around the world. I'll eat irrelevant pasta and drink wine in Italy, I'll walk on the completely irrelevant China wall, and lastly surf the Australia waves, which as we all know don't mean shit. :)

Waiting for the 15K with irrelevant honesty and modesty.

Your humble servant and admirer,

Poor renter folk

Sorry, but if you can afford $1200 a month for a mortgage while saving the $40,000 required for 20% down at 200k, you can afford to save $15000 more.

If you can't afford the down payment, get an FHA loan. An FHA loan on $275,000 is STILL cheaper than a traditional 30 year fixed in 2000, even with PMI!

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Reality is knocking only in a fantasy world. Reality is a place we are going to be soon whether you like it or not. Many will be going kicking and screaming, and some will say "I told you so". Good luck on the journey to mediocre.

Like I said, if you're making that bet, good luck to you. In 5 years houses will be more expensive and interest rates will be higher than they are today. I'm sure then you'll be claiming that prices are poised for another crash and that anybody who buys is an idiot.

My mortgage payment as of Monday will be $1733 a month. My home was appraised last week at $590k. Keep telling yourself that buying is so much more expensive.

JFP   Sat, 29 Dec 2012, 5:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Kevin says

I know you guys live in a fantasy world where housing is always more expensive than it used to be, but reality is knocking.

Reality is knocking only in a fantasy world. Reality is a place we are going to be soon whether you like it or not. Many will be going kicking and screaming, and some will say "I told you so". Good luck on the journey to mediocre.

How about instead of trolling, you add something substantive to the discussion? Like telling us whether you think housing prices will drop in the next two years, and if so, why?

RentingForHalfTheCost   Sat, 29 Dec 2012, 5:16pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

Kevin says

My home was appraised last week at $590k.

Most likely a great time to sell then. Go for it and let us know how close you get to that appraisal. My bet is about 480k. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost   Sat, 29 Dec 2012, 5:24pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 40

Kevin says

Sorry, but if you can afford $1200 a month for a mortgage while saving the $40,000 required for 20% down at 200k, you can afford to save $15000 more.

No sorry needed. Please send the 15K to my account. I am packed for my trip and waiting. ;)

15K is only about 4 times the national savings average. Irrelevant I guess.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/american-family-financial-statistics/

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