Some early issues for real estate in 2013


By golfplan18   Follow   Sat, 29 Dec 2012, 12:56pm   1,245 views   14 comments
In Irvine CA 92620   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

http://ochousingnews.com/news/some-early-issues-for-real-estate-in-2013?source=Patrick.net

Last year I (Mike) listed some predictions for real estate in 2012 and very few of them came true. Then I realized you can’t predict a economic model that is not based on supply and demand. The Federal fingerprints are all over the housing market and concentrating on the mortgage industry. However, in 2013 there could be changes in tax laws, expiration of legislative acts, and retooling of several federal housing programs that will change the status quo. To borrow a stock market term, it COULD be the triple witching of housing in 2013. Please keep an eye on the...

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  1. Kevin


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    1   2:43pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    1 doesn't matter.
    2 won't happen.
    3 doesn't matter
    4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility.

    Japan has had mortgage rates below 3% for nearly 20 years.

  2. Jeremy


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    2   3:12pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    1 doesn't matter.

    1 does matter only if, by some bizarre act of congress, the debt forgiveness is eliminated. In my city, 75% of the homes on the market are short sales. If the sellers lose the benefit of walking away scott-free (except the ding to their credit) the market will dry up even more, and be even more skewed. Again, this is only what I see in my local market.

  3. Kevin


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    3   5:42pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free"

    They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down.

  4. Raw


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    4   9:09pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free"

    They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down.

    How?

  5. Kevin


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    5   1:20am Sun 30 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Raw says

    Kevin says

    Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free"

    They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down.

    How?

    - They were spending money every month paying interest, taxes, etc.
    - They paid some closing costs, probably on both ends.

    Foreclosures and short sales come from two sources:

    - Investors who have decided that the math works out in their favor this way. They won't be deterred because of potential tax liability, since this can be offset in a variety of ways.

    - People who simply can't afford the house any more. They don't have any choice but to "walk away", and taxes aren't going to make any difference for them.

  6. Henry the Investor


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    6   6:53pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Plenty of people walked away Scot Free. Very simple, those who took more out in HELOC and Cash Out Refinancings than they put in thru closing costs, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big. The score of a lifetime.

  7. Call it Crazy


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    7   7:18pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Henry the Investor says

    Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big.

    This was the easiest theft of money in the history of this country!!

  8. mell


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    8   8:21pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility.

    You mean except for the volatility of sudden massive defaults as soon as life gets economically a little tougher? If it weren't for constant taxpayer bailouts those rates would be in the double digits by now.

  9. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    9   5:55am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Henry the Investor says

    Plenty of people walked away Scot Free. Very simple, those who took more out in HELOC and Cash Out Refinancings than they put in thru closing costs, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big. The score of a lifetime.

    They spent the HELOC on booze and drugs. Now they are broke and have medical bills outstanding. How is that Scot Free? Money destroys most people in my experience. They would have been better of renting and staying healthy. ;)

  10. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    10   5:57am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility.

    Tell that to the now bankrupt previous home owners all across the country. Taken a drive through Detroit lately? I'd like to see how you make out in a pub in downtown Detroit saying that housing is the safest investment.

  11. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    11   7:12am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    Kevin says

    Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility.

    Tell that to the now bankrupt previous home owners all across the country. Taken a drive through Detroit lately? I'd like to see how you make out in a pub in downtown Detroit saying that housing is the safest investment.

    You really don't see a difference between buying in 2006 and buying today? seriously?

    the median price in Phoenix in 2006 was 300K, and rates were what, 6%? today the median sale price is 156K and rates are at 3.5%

    Your comment is absurd.

    Listen to what you are saying. Rates are nearly half of what they were in 2006, and the median price is almost half. That doesn't speak of volatility? Seriously? You have a crystal ball? This roller coaster ride is absurd. Volatility is at an all time high if you ask me. We could go up drastically, just as well as we could go down drastically. Anyone thinking this is low volatility is mistaken.

  12. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    12   7:44am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    You keep on whining about the volatility, I'll keep on making money from it.

    I hope you do, cause then you buy stuff and pay me dividends. It works both ways. Try to lighten up for the new year. You are actually benefiting from the volatility. My comment was that it is volatile. There is risk. The original statement was that it was an easy 3% without volatility. That I could not disagree with more. Volatility is huge, and if it swing on the upside then people who assume the risk, like yourself, will do well. I hope you make a killing!

  13. Mobi


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    13   8:34am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    I closed home number 14 to my collection dec 28th. 142K for 2500 square foot,
    3 car garage, pool, rv gate 1/2 acre lot etc. My mortgage at even an investor
    rate of 4.25% (30% down) is $705 a month. I will put it for rent this week and
    try for 1500 a month. Even if i have to lower it all the way down to 1000 I'd
    still make money (and i rent 3 homes in that neighborhood that are half the
    size, no pool, 2 car garage for the 1000 range)

    Looks like a decent deal. Here my properties are all cash buy. Every time when I tried to borrow I got out worked by somebody else for some reasion. Have you ever HELOCed money out from your rentals? And are they under LLCs or your own name?

  14. Mobi


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    14   8:40am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kevin says

    1 doesn't matter.
    2 won't happen.
    3 doesn't matter
    4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility.


    Japan has had mortgage rates below 3% for nearly 20 years.

    1-3 agree. 4, I believe it's more government supports (i.e., Fed MBS purchase and various government programs) to supress the interest rate. Japan same thing over there. Also, the finiancial structures are very different here from the Asian countries (e.g., savers v.s. consumers, different loan terms, etc.). It does not make sense to compare nominal mortgage interest rates across the Pacific ocean.

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