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Some early issues for real estate in 2013

By golfplan18   Follow   Sat, 29 Dec 2012, 12:56pm   1,063 views   17 comments
In Irvine CA 92620   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

http://ochousingnews.com/news/some-early-issues-for-real-estate-in-2013?source=Patrick.net

Last year I (Mike) listed some predictions for real estate in 2012 and very few of them came true. Then I realized you can’t predict a economic model that is not based on supply and demand. The Federal fingerprints are all over the housing market and concentrating on the mortgage industry. However, in 2013 there could be changes in tax laws, expiration of legislative acts, and retooling of several federal housing programs that will change the status quo. To borrow a stock market term, it COULD be the triple witching of housing in 2013. Please keep an eye on the...

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1. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   1   2:43pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   1 doesn't matter. 2 won't happen. 3 doesn't matter 4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. Japan has had mortgage rates below 3% for nearly 20 years.

2. Jeremy Follow Befriend (1) 7 threads 101 comments Valencia, CA

   2   3:12pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Kevin says 1 doesn't matter. 1 does matter only if, by some bizarre act of congress, the debt forgiveness is eliminated. In my city, 75% of the homes on the market are short sales. If the sellers lose the benefit of walking away scott-free (except the ding to their credit) the market will dry up even more, and be even more skewed. Again, this is only what I see in my local market.

3. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   3   5:42pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free" They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down.

4. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

   4   9:09pm Sat 29 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Kevin says Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free" They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down. How?

5. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

   5   1:20am Sun 30 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says Kevin says Nobody has ever walked away "Scott free" They're losing thousands of dollars, minimum. Even if they put zero down. How? - They were spending money every month paying interest, taxes, etc. - They paid some closing costs, probably on both ends. Foreclosures and short sales come from two sources: - Investors who have decided that the math works out in their favor this way. They won't be deterred because of potential tax liability, since this can be offset in a variety of ways. - People who simply can't afford the house any more. They don't have any choice but to "walk away", and taxes aren't going to make any difference for them.

6. Henry the Investor Follow Befriend 9 comments

   6   6:53pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Plenty of people walked away Scot Free. Very simple, those who took more out in HELOC and Cash Out Refinancings than they put in thru closing costs, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big. The score of a lifetime.

7. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,766 comments

   7   7:18pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Henry the Investor says Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big. This was the easiest theft of money in the history of this country!!

8. mell Follow Befriend (5) 53 threads 1,299 comments Premium

   8   8:21pm Wed 2 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Kevin says 4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. You mean except for the volatility of sudden massive defaults as soon as life gets economically a little tougher? If it weren't for constant taxpayer bailouts those rates would be in the double digits by now.

9. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   9   5:55am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Henry the Investor says Plenty of people walked away Scot Free. Very simple, those who took more out in HELOC and Cash Out Refinancings than they put in thru closing costs, taxes, repairs, mortgage payments. Someone who paid in 100,000 but took out 200,000 got Scot Free housing plus a hundred grand bonus. Yes, there were homeowners hurt, but plenty of freeloaders really cashed in big. The score of a lifetime. They spent the HELOC on booze and drugs. Now they are broke and have medical bills outstanding. How is that Scot Free? Money destroys most people in my experience. They would have been better of renting and staying healthy. ;)

10. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    10   5:57am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Kevin says Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. Tell that to the now bankrupt previous home owners all across the country. Taken a drive through Detroit lately? I'd like to see how you make out in a pub in downtown Detroit saying that housing is the safest investment.

11. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,780 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    11   6:26am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Kevin says Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. Tell that to the now bankrupt previous home owners all across the country. Taken a drive through Detroit lately? I'd like to see how you make out in a pub in downtown Detroit saying that housing is the safest investment. You really don't see a difference between buying in 2006 and buying today? seriously? the median price in Phoenix in 2006 was 300K, and rates were what, 6%? today the median sale price is 156K and rates are at 3.5% Your comment is absurd.

12. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    12   7:12am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says RentingForHalfTheCost says Kevin says Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. Tell that to the now bankrupt previous home owners all across the country. Taken a drive through Detroit lately? I'd like to see how you make out in a pub in downtown Detroit saying that housing is the safest investment. You really don't see a difference between buying in 2006 and buying today? seriously? the median price in Phoenix in 2006 was 300K, and rates were what, 6%? today the median sale price is 156K and rates are at 3.5% Your comment is absurd. Listen to what you are saying. Rates are nearly half of what they were in 2006, and the median price is almost half. That doesn't speak of volatility? Seriously? You have a crystal ball? This roller coaster ride is absurd. Volatility is at an all time high if you ask me. We could go up drastically, just as well as we could go down drastically. Anyone thinking this is low volatility is mistaken.

13. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,780 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    13   7:21am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Listen to what you are saying. Rates are nearly half of what they were in 2006, and the median price is almost half. That doesn't speak of volatility? Seriously? You have a crystal ball? This roller coaster ride is absurd. Volatility is at an all time high if you ask me. We could go up drastically, just as well as we could go down drastically. Anyone thinking this is low volatility is mistaken. You keep on doing what you are doing. There have to be people who are dead wrong to counterbalance me out. Rents in Phoenix are down maybe 5% since 2006, meanwhile the mortgage a buyer would pay today is down around 70%. In 2006, a buyer would likely wind up paying 50% or more per month to buy the median home, than a renter would. Today, the buyer is paying less. ALOT less. I closed home number 14 to my collection dec 28th. 142K for 2500 square foot, 3 car garage, pool, rv gate 1/2 acre lot etc. My mortgage at even an investor rate of 4.25% (30% down) is $705 a month. I will put it for rent this week and try for 1500 a month. Even if i have to lower it all the way down to 1000 I'd still make money (and i rent 3 homes in that neighborhood that are half the size, no pool, 2 car garage for the 1000 range) your nonsensical whining "oh its volatile" or "oh rates could go up" are sadly amusing. Why would I give a rats tail? If rates go up, I couldn't care less, my mortgage is fixed; The home will be paying the mortgage plus a handsome profit. You keep on whining about the volatility, I'll keep on making money from it.

14. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    14   7:44am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says You keep on whining about the volatility, I'll keep on making money from it. I hope you do, cause then you buy stuff and pay me dividends. It works both ways. Try to lighten up for the new year. You are actually benefiting from the volatility. My comment was that it is volatile. There is risk. The original statement was that it was an easy 3% without volatility. That I could not disagree with more. Volatility is huge, and if it swing on the upside then people who assume the risk, like yourself, will do well. I hope you make a killing!

15. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,780 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    15   7:48am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says I hope you do, cause then you buy stuff and pay me dividends. It works both ways. Try to lighten up for the new year. You are actually benefiting from the volatility. My comment was that it is volatile. There is risk. The original statement was that it was an easy 3% without volatility. That I could not disagree with more. Volatility is huge, and if it swing on the upside then people who assume the risk, like yourself, will do well. I hope you make a killing! Ok, peace and happy new year! and I wouldn't buy in an expensive coastal city anyways!!!! the risk there is still higher than i like!

16. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 240 comments

    16   8:34am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says I closed home number 14 to my collection dec 28th. 142K for 2500 square foot, 3 car garage, pool, rv gate 1/2 acre lot etc. My mortgage at even an investor rate of 4.25% (30% down) is $705 a month. I will put it for rent this week and try for 1500 a month. Even if i have to lower it all the way down to 1000 I'd still make money (and i rent 3 homes in that neighborhood that are half the size, no pool, 2 car garage for the 1000 range) Looks like a decent deal. Here my properties are all cash buy. Every time when I tried to borrow I got out worked by somebody else for some reasion. Have you ever HELOCed money out from your rentals? And are they under LLCs or your own name?

17. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 240 comments

    17   8:40am Thu 3 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Kevin says 1 doesn't matter. 2 won't happen. 3 doesn't matter 4 mortgage rates will remain low as long as they remain an attractive, safe investment. Name one other investment that returns over 3% without volatility. Japan has had mortgage rates below 3% for nearly 20 years. 1-3 agree. 4, I believe it's more government supports (i.e., Fed MBS purchase and various government programs) to supress the interest rate. Japan same thing over there. Also, the finiancial structures are very different here from the Asian countries (e.g., savers v.s. consumers, different loan terms, etc.). It does not make sense to compare nominal mortgage interest rates across the Pacific ocean.