Why is for sale inventory so low?


By SFace   Follow   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 10:42am   17,232 views   277 comments
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This is really an extention of IWOG's thread of why 2013 is set up to be a huge up year, expecially in the SFBA. The main theme is the drastic lack of inventory.

Consider this.

"As of January 07 2013 there were about 5,074 single family and condo homes listed for sale in San Francisco Bay Area." In Jan 2012, 2011, it was 13,041 and 18,212 respectively. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-francisco/

Which brings up a question, why is that?

Shadow inventory from underwater owner? I don't really buy this one. In my neighborhood, essentially no one is underwater yet literally nothing is for sale.

Bulk Buyers? Bulk buyers have been especially active in NorCal, Sacramento, Phoenix and a few specific area. If I was a big real estate LLC, I would focus on a market as well to at least capture some scaling. Likely the bulk buyers are taking inventory out of the market. You hear about the blackstones, but I'm sure there are smaller, aggregated efforts as well.

Refinance? A low interest rate envionment in the last 3 years mean today's current owner are better off renting than selling. It's a huge difference to pay a mortgagge of 6% vs. 3.5%. With the latter, an owner does not need to sell thus resrict inventory.

Price expectations - Current owners probably think the worst is behind us. When employment rates get to perhaps 6.5% and retail buyer comes on board in force, perhaps that is when owner's decide to sell. That time is not now thus no one is willing to sell.

As an aside, when I was interviewing tenants for a rental of one of my property in Hercules, A 1700 sq ft SFH, a common theme was they were looking to rent for one-two years. At that point, they want to buy. The retail buyer's (for that demographics) will be coming on board in 2 years, at that point, it will make sense to sell in 2017. My thinking is, the people who lost their homes in 2009-2011 will eventually be retail buyers again in 2014-2018. my opinion only.

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  1. chi_renter


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    238   5:12pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I don't know about Underwaterman but I would love it if we could restore justice to our system - ie., stop mollycoddling deadbeats, punish wrongdoers no matter who they are, let the markets work freely - even if that means gold will go down in price. I would like to be able to buy a house for its real price, get a decent return on my hard-earned and responsibly saved money, invest in the markets with confidence that my money will not be stolen or manipulated away and so on.

    But alas! I have very little hope that this will happen.

  2. chi_renter


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    239   5:38pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    They have cut spending by $1.4 Trillion, and can cut another $2 Trillion. The United States government can also cap payments on Social Security, and reduce MediCare, and MedicAid costs.

    I think you have your numbers off by a few thousand %. LOL. In fact, the total spending cuts over the next decade included in the bill was only $25billion (not $1.4 trillion as you claim). And to make matters worse, CBO estimates that there will not be any actual spending cuts but on the contrary, an increase in spending of $330billion. And to add insult to injury, the bill will swell the deficit by nearly $4trillion over the next decade.

    Like I said, its hard to hope for a turnaround when inconvenient things like this keep happening. LOL.

    Look at linked article for information.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2013/jan/1/deficit-fiscal-cliff-bill-actually-spends-330-bill/

  3. Facebooksux


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    240   5:59pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    Let me say this again, the United States government just increased income.
    They have cut spending by $1.4 Trillion, and can cut another $2 Trillion. The
    United States government can also cap payments on Social Security, and reduce
    MediCare, and MedicAid costs.

    Seriously. You are off by an order of magnitude.

  4. Facebooksux


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    241   6:05pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    Oh, and in India, they have a gold glut, so it's everywhere: http://business-standard.com/india/news/traders-uneasy-over-gold-glutthailand/468379/

    Read the article carefully. It's not talking about a glut per se, wherein demand is less than supply, but the fact that Thai gold imports are cheaper and there is a larger and cheaper supply than native gold. Thus, native producers may be harmed, but nowhere does it say demand has fallen.

  5. ELC


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    242   6:45pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    We don't have any bubbles right now, we only have over priced commodities, and what you would call assets, like gold, or Real Estate.

    Would you say that we have overpriced commodities like Gold and Real Estate instead of inflation? Is it possible to have both without devastating effects? If inflation does occur what will happen to RE and/or Gold? Stay the same? Can inflation be prevented indefinitely?

  6. David Losh


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    243   7:05pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    chi_renter says

    Look at linked article for information.

    Read the article again. You are off by a few Billion, but it makes no difference to my point.

    The United States government just raised revenue with new taxes, they have almost an unlimited ability to cut spending.

    The consumer is the one you need to watch.

  7. David Losh


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    244   7:08pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Facebooksux says

    Read the article carefully.

    I did, but it's what I said about the poor. The poor can buy, sell, and trade gold in an open market. That is a strategy for anything.

  8. David Losh


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    245   7:09pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Facebooksux says

    You are off by an order of magnitude.

    Not at all, we are talking gold compared to fiat currency. In the world of fiat the United States has unlimited options.

  9. chi_renter


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    246   7:10pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    chi_renter says

    Look at linked article for information.

    Read the article again. You are off by a few Billion, but it makes no difference to my point.

    The United States government just raised revenue with new taxes, they have almost an unlimited ability to cut spending.

    The consumer is the one you need to watch.

    Ha Ha Ha (Its hilarious that you believe what you are spouting!)

  10. David Losh


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    247   7:15pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    Would you say that we have overpriced commodities like Gold and Real Estate instead of inflation?

    You can't have inflation without an increase in wages.

    We have unemployment, long term unemployment, and the private sector is paying according to return.

    We won't see wage inflation until the tide turns from government provided jobs to a massive increase in private sector jobs.

    Gold, Real Estate, and commodities will have to adjust pricing accordingly.

    If consumer spending is driven by debt, like student loans, car loans, mortgages, or credit cards that isn't velocity, it's only taking future spending that will need to be directed at paying off debt.

    Banks win with debt, the economy loses.

  11. David Losh


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    248   7:15pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    chi_renter says

    Ha Ha Ha (Its hilarious that you believe what you are spouting!)

    Prove I'm wrong then. I just gave you a cohesive argument, come up with something better.

    Hey you guys wanted to talk about gold, well it's one of my favorite subjects. So as long as you hihjacked this thread, let's discuss.

    I'm much more interested in why Real Estate inventory is so low, but here we are.

  12. ELC


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    249   7:16pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    He doesn't like me, ergo I must be wrong

    For me it's a something called a "winning attitude." You don't have it. You may have in the past. You may change for the future but if you stay in the place you're in today you will fail or at least not enjoy your successes. Of course if this is just your Internet persona and you're really not really like this. If you have good reason for it then who knows. But I've never met a successful person disrespect people the way you do. Success is a journey and you're on a twisted one on this forum. For some, forums are like a drug. It brings out the worst in them. Were's the profit in insulting people?

  13. chi_renter


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    250   7:59pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    chi_renter says

    Ha Ha Ha (Its hilarious that you believe what you are spouting!)

    Prove I'm wrong then. I just gave you a cohesive argument, come up with something better.

    Hey you guys wanted to talk about gold, well it's one of my favorite subjects. So as long as you hihjacked this thread, let's discuss.

    I'm much more interested in why Real Estate inventory is so low, but here we are.

    So I just showed you how wrong you are on the spending cuts you thought the government has made in the latest bill (you were only off by about $1375 billion LOL) and you want me to prove that you are wrong in your other assumption that the government has unlimited options for spending cuts. Wow!

    I mean, here the government was talking at the end of December about the end of the world as we know it (fiscal cliff drama) and that massive changes needed to be made to put us back on the road. And after all that urgency and melodrama, they decided to cut $25 billion in spending. Were the $25 billion cuts to be made in 1 year? Oh No! Not 1 year, not even 2 years but a full 10 years. That is a measly $2.5 billion a year that they could cut even with all the dire statements they made beforehand. And to congratulate themselves on these fabulous cuts, they increased spending by about $41 for each dollar of the new tax increase (LOL)

    And here you are now claiming that the government has unlimited options to cut spending (they will do it out of the goodness of their hearts) and you want me to prove you are wrong! Oh boy! I just don't know what to say.

    (Here I edited my comment to remove caustic statement. I don't want to be rude. We can continue to discuss in a courteous manner)

  14. chi_renter


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    251   8:11pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    chi_renter says

    So I just showed you how wrong you are on the spending cuts you thought the government has made in the latest bill (you were only off by about $1375 billion LOL) and you want me to prove that you are wrong in your other assumption that the government has unlimited options for spending cuts. Wow!

    Yep, the government didn't cut spending much, that certainly proves that gold is on its way to a zillion dollars an ounce, any second now!

    Perhaps you could quote where I said this. All I am saying is that with the system in such a disarray and with absolutely no efforts being made to limit any of this debauchery, you should not be surprised that responsible people will try to protect their hard-earned money by moving into safer and more sound assets such as gold. That process could result in the price of gold going up as a natural supply/demand variable and not because of irrational exuberance. You don't agree with this assessment?

  15. swebb


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    252   8:15pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    underwaterman says

    underwaterman says

    Can you guess what happens if any of the 83 experts are correct?

    underwaterman says

    Gold and silver are in a manipulated market just as housing is.

    Timing the exact top or bottom is not possible and even if it was

    it would not be possible in a manipulated market by definition.

    Fair enough, but since 12 of the experts on your list made predictions that didn't come to pass (and therefore can't be correct), how about rephrasing your question to reflect this. I would suggest:

    "Can you guess what happens if any of the 71 experts are correct?"

    For the record I have read you posts with an open mind and I don't find your arguments very convincing. Your "gold to the moon" story may come true, but that doesn't mean your reasons, logic, or analysis is worth a damn.

    Frankly you just haven't done a good job convincing me that I should put more stock in your analysis than my own. Also, what are you trying to accomplish with your posts? Educate the masses? Gain followers? Win arguments? Entertain yourself? You have made your points, most people don't buy them, you have clarified and buttressed your arguments, but you still don't have any takers. The name calling and ad Hominem attacks don't help you cause, either.

  16. swebb


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    253   8:39pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    chi_renter says

    In my opinion, US inflation is definitely around 10%

    Wuhh? For how long? I think this assertion is not consistent with what most Americans are experiencing. In fact it seems so far out of whack that you need to justify it with some examples if you want people to take you seriously.

  17. David Losh


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    254   8:44pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    chi_renter says

    spending cuts you thought the government has made

    You quoted a fiscal cliff article that didn't happen because there are no spending cuts yet, we only got the revenue increase, but that is irrelevant to the fact the United States government has Trillions in pork spending.

  18. chi_renter


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    255   9:12pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    swebb says

    chi_renter says

    In my opinion, US inflation is definitely around 10%

    Wuhh? For how long? I think this assertion is not consistent with what most Americans are experiencing. In fact it seems so far out of whack that you need to justify it with some examples if you want people to take you seriously.

    Here is a link to ShadowStats inflation graph which shows real inflation when using the original methodology (from before 1980) used to calculate inflation (before the food/energy variables were removed to make inflation seem smaller than it is to fool the public). Clearly you can see it is close to 10% (definitely a 5-6% gap between official and real)

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    And here is a very indepth article on why reported inflation feels so much different than what us regular Americans feel everyday in the marketplace. Do you disagree with the statements in this article?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-20/guest-post-why-reported-inflation-seems-different-reality

  19. zesta


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    256   9:23pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Shadowstats, BLS, Google Price Index, and MIT's Billion Prices Project ...

    Guess which one doesn't belong and is inconsistent with the other 3?

    10% inflation?!? What would 10%/year inflation look like over 13 years? Does that accurately reflect what you see?

  20. Call it Crazy


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    257   9:36pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Secondly, there are very real ways for the US to solve its long term debt problem, and in fact a very likely strong economic recovery that we will see more evidence of as the next few years unfold will solve a big portion of it all alone.

    I am certainly glad you're a math major, otherwise I would think you were clueless...

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

  21. bmwman91


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    258   11:34pm Fri 18 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    We bombed Japan into the stoneage at the end of world war 2. We nuked two of their cities, and the loss of human capital made that epoch of their history only about 1000 times worse than our current crisis. look at their economy 5, 10 and 15 years later. ditto Germany.

    Never underestimate the ability of the US to grow.

    Roberto, I think that you might be overlooking the reason why Japan and Germany grew as they did. They were bombed into the stoneage. People lost everything and had clear reasons to work hard and be productive, because if they didn't they would have to live in the stone age.

    Take America today. People are born with EVERYTHING, in comparison to post-WWII Japan and Germany. If you don't feel like working, you just go get free money from the government which will buy you food, imported baubles and all the entertainment you need to kill time until death. The slow rotting of our infrastructure and social attitudes toward progress aren't the winning mixture for real economic growth.

    America COULD see large growth again, but there would need to be major social shifts in all socioeconomic classes. It generally takes a shock to the system, of some sort, to get that to happen. The only likely event like that would be the US Dollar losing its international reserve status and us being forced to produce our own goods again. If we keep with our slow decline, people will probably just rationalize it away and accept it. When you have the dollar menu and reality TV to placate the masses, well, most people know what happened after the free bread and circuses in Rome.

  22. swebb


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    259   12:15am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    chi_renter says

    Here is a link to ShadowStats inflation graph which shows real inflation when using the original methodology (from before 1980) used to calculate inflation (before the food/energy variables were removed to make inflation seem smaller than it is to fool the public). Clearly you can see it is close to 10% (definitely a 5-6% gap between official and real)

    I don't have great data, but after some basic google searches I came up with this:

    1982, loaf of bread $0.50
    2012, loaf of bread $1.50

    By my calculations that's about 3.7% inflation on average. Are my numbers wrong?

    chi_renter says

    And here is a very indepth article on why reported inflation feels so much different than what us regular Americans feel everyday in the marketplace. Do you disagree with the statements in this article?

    Admittedly, I'm probably a little out of touch when it comes to food prices. I'd notice the sticker prices increasing because I pay attention, but it's not really on my radar from a bottom line standpoint. Still, 10% inflation is just so far out of bounds that I have a hard time believing it.

    Prices would double every 7 years at that rate!

    I bought a new car about 7 years ago -- a mid line Subaru Outback. $22k A comparable model today (Actually, it's probably meaningfully nicer) -- about $24k.

    I bought a pair of Montrail hiking boots about 7 years ago. I don't remember the exact price, but it was about $140 for the pair. Several months back I bought a similar pair (same brand, same basic boot) and I paid about $130.

    A six pack of top shelf beer 10 years ago? I remember paying about $6. Today? $8.50 will get me a six pack of almost any beer I want.

    I bought an basic / low end mig welder in 1994 -- it was about $400. Today comparable models are about the same price.

    I remember a McDonalds cheeseburger priced at $0.65 in the mid 90s. Today it's a buck.

    10% inflation doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

  23. bmwman91


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    260   2:11am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    SFace says

    At least with housing, if prices go up you win with equity

    With caveats.

    a) If you are a landlord
    b) If you are a homeowner and are OK with selling/moving to a smaller house in a presumably less expensive area when you retire.
    c) You gonn' ride the HELOC TrAiN, baby!!1

    As someone that wants to buy a house, live in it and customize it into a life-long HOME, I don't really see much merit to the "equity" argument for home ownership. It is totally illiquid, subject to prevailing market trends and realizing its value requires you to extract it via debt or uproot your life. At best, I see it as a sort of funky "emergency savings account" that eventually grows faster than you could grow a real savings account if you rented long-term (since rents do tend to go up over time). Tapping it isn't terribly straightforward.

    Houses are now commodities, and it is disgusting to me. Rent seeking is completely unproductive and crushes the greater economy by sucking up disposable income that would otherwise be spent on real goods, and by juicing various financial instruments that don't actually produce anything outside of the FIRE sector. Buuut, bitching about it won't change the fact that it's the hottest game in town right now.

    This might be bordering on starting another economic discussion tangent. "Money has no value unless it can easily be exchanged for real goods and services." Equity makes people FEEL good though, that's for sure.

  24. tatupu70


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    261   5:17am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    swebb says

    10% inflation doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

    Of course. Shadowstats is a site for the tinfoil crowd to congregate at.

    There is nothing untoward about the government changing the "basket of goods" over time to reflect peoples' changing habits. When two or more substitute goods are available, people will generally act rationally and buy the cheaper one.

    And, for the record, food, energy, and housing costs ARE included in the CPI measurement. There is separate core CPI that does not include volatile food and energy. Both numbers are calculated and reported.

  25. Call it Crazy


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    262   7:33am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Is the economy going to remain in a depression forever?

    Simple answer, YES!! Or, worse!!

    As long as your government continues to spend MORE than they take in, nothing will change and we will continue to go down the rat hole until we can't anymore.... take a look again at this chart...

    ....And prove it otherwise ....

  26. chi_renter


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    263   8:10am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    underwaterman says

    chi_renter says

    I would like to be able to buy a house for its real price, get a decent return on my hard-earned and responsibly saved money, invest in the markets with confidence that my money will not be stolen or manipulated away and so on.

    But alas! I have very little hope that this will happen.

    I missed this post in all the noise. chi_renter, some advice. Take a look at silver and the 20k mike mahoney video. He says you will be able to buy an average 3 bedroom home for 250 ounces of silver at the bottom of the coming economic reset. It will be possible to buy that house for it's real deleveraged value. Buy silver or gold and sit at the bottom of the inverse pyramid and wait for QE shit to fly and the system collapse. We have definitely hit an exponential phase of money printing so you shouldn't have to wait 10 years I would think.

    Yeah, I hope it won't take another 10 years for sure. I am getting tired of just waiting for some sanity to prevail. In the meantime, no worries. I am happily saving my money renting and putting it wherever I have the most safety.

  27. Call it Crazy


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    264   9:10am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    gotcha. Except, the scenario you are waiting for, people will be killing you and eating you in that home you just bought for 3 silver coins...

    I'm not going to base my personal financial decisions on waiting for cannibal anarchy, but by all means you can feel free to do so!

    Talk about extreme statements.....

    I never said that, in fact, I hope the economy improves. But, remember this statement:

    robertoaribas says

    Secondly, there are very real ways for the US to solve its long term debt problem, and in fact a very likely strong economic recovery that we will see more evidence of as the next few years unfold will solve a big portion of it all alone.

    If, after looking at the situation of the country's debt, you really believe your statement above, then you wasted a lot of money on your math degrees.

    I'm not a math major, but I can see that the direction of the economy isn't going to end well. If you choose to be an ostrich and stick your head in the desert in Phoenix, and believe what you wrote above, that's your choice.

  28. David Losh


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    265   10:58am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    underwaterman says

    It has devolved sufficiently to end my interest.

    For those of you who want an education and possible alternative investment from buying houses in housing bubble #2, take a look at the "revisiting silver" thread. I still post in there from time to time and I cite my sources with each post.

    Good, that was the goal.

  29. David Losh


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    266   11:29am Sat 19 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Call it Crazy says

    I never said that, in fact, I hope the economy improves.

    You did great by including the charts, and graphs. Those are the same I use to show how we can get out of the mess we are in. Here's one you forgot to include. I have more.

    Consumer debt is what is the real problem. The government, in response to the attack of 9/11 2001, spent money on all sorts of things that were for "National Security." It created jobs, and an incentive to spur economic growth in things like creating housing units. The consumer racked up massive debt, and continues to do so.

    Well, here in 2013 the piper needs to be paid. The United States government has options the consumer does not.

    Your second chart shows that in 2007 the consumer began using bankruptcy, and foreclosure to lower debt from it's peak. Moving forward the only option the consumer has is to increase income, or spend less.

    This chart shows wages are flat, so that only leaves consumers spending less, or using more credit.

    The consumer will spend less, look for better bargains, do more substitution, and in general the providers of goods, or services will have to play along with that.

    Prices will fall to be more in line with what the consumer can afford.

    The government can, and will, cut spending. They have unlimited programs to unwind. Obama has been kind of brilliant in transferring more jobs to the private sector.

    We can talk about banking another time, because it is the basis of our problems. Banking, insurance, and the financial markets are the corner stone of where we can get more tax revenue, and cut government spending.

  30. David Losh


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    267   6:39pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Is it safe to continue now?

    We are at the end of January,and it looks like low inventory will be with us for a while.

    What many people have pointed out is that sales volume is continueing pretty well. Good houses come on the market, get multiple offers, then they are gone.

    I don't understand why so many buyers are so desperate, other than getting into a good school district. Another thing that doesn't make sense is the number of sellers who should look at today's market as a gift.

    I'd think a lot of people would want to sell, or maybe even should sell, even short sale, just so they can retire that debt.

  31. inflection point


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    268   8:04pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    There are always people that want to buy homes. People get desperate. They either retreat or charge forward paying what ever the price required.

    Just remember "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread." - Edmund Burke

  32. yup1


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    269   8:06pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    If the appreciation in my area continues I will be selling this spring/summer and I will go rent for a while. I will stay mobile and take advantage of the large number of SFH that are going to be available for rent.

  33. inflection point


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    270   8:08pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1,

    There seem to be many more rental opptunities in Fremont than last year.

  34. yup1


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    271   8:10pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I believe that in most of the hard hit markets there will be ample opportunity to rent.

  35. Mick Russom


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    272   8:14pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Never underestimate the ability of the US to grow.

    The problem with empires is when they stop expanding they tend to go bankrupt. What sovereign nation can we possibly attack to pillage and pay for all the bad debt we have piled up.

    That clever stunt by Nixon in 1971 bought a lot of time, but seriously, you believe this debt and deficit issue is going to go on forever?

    Some mathematician you are ignoring like - all of history - when talking about economics. You just pick a timeline that suits your beliefs.

    If you seriously think that you have ever tried to improve the lives of the middle class for even one day you have to be kidding yourself.

    Greed machine, all about numbers and math. The problem is that this vicious pursuit of money has actually lead to a decrease in standard of living despite massive increases in technology and efficiency and productivity.

    We are all become slaves which are perceived as costs in the system, and the goal of the current system is to drive out costs.

    The logical end is all labor being done by robots and all humans eliminated from the picture. Some world you guys are working towards. Doesnt feel like Star Trek.

  36. yup1


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    273   8:17pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    I don't quite understand the multiple bids at many price points... maybe it
    will be another bubble, who knows? I thought I was buying homes to keep forever,
    but if this year is similar to last year, I may sell one in late summer to take
    some chips back off the table :-)

    I am glad to see that even the uber bulls are a little concerned by what they are seeing.

  37. Mick Russom


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    274   8:17pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SFace says

    his is really an extention of IWOG's thread of why 2013 is set up to be a huge up year, expecially in the SFBA. The main theme is the drastic lack of inventory.

    Car dealers get sticker or above for silly things like hard to find colors. Even the most commodotized commodities are worth a lot more if they are perceived to be rare.

    It should make sense that just like the stock market and historic low volumes that the low volumes of the housing market can make for easy arbitrary pricing.

    That and a fresh wave of ill-gotten China-Dollars.

    And then the celebration of, despite being a consumer economy based on disposable income, the increase of cost of living/higher housing.

    Im done carying about SFBA, it has a horrific standard of living. I grew up all over the US, and despite good job opportunities, I've never lived so "poorly".

  38. Mick Russom


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    275   8:20pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Call it Crazy says

    I am certainly glad you're a math major, otherwise I would think you were clueless

    People who benefit from the system, especially the rentier class who makes unearned income off the backs of others, tend to defend the status quo of the banking cabal with extreme fanaticism and zealotry.

    Expect nothing but basically pure lies to defend their way of life.

    Thell tell you things like inflation is 2-3% while changing the basket of things inflation is calculated on, or changing the year the dollars are based on, etc.

  39. David Losh


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    276   7:58am Wed 30 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    There's a Real Estate agent in my neighborhood who has sold some of the properties that have languished on the market in the past.

    A little brick number on a busy street was one that even the seller thought he could never get rid of sold, for a fair price, but not cheap.

    The agent has another albatross up for sale that has been used as an example of what not to do in lot development by our city Department of Planning, and Development, for years.

    I'm also going to say that a house up the street from me went into foreclosure because of a oil tank leak, that was mitigated, then resold to an investor who turned it into a rental.

    People are crazy to pay these prices for poop, but when a decent house comes on the market, at a decent price, watch out.

    I realize as much as I sound like a perma bear I always expect the Real Estate market to wake up, and get to be more reasonable.

  40. retire59


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    277   10:26am Tue 2 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    In my humble opinion, it seems very obvious as to why Inventory of homes for sale is low. When you purchased homes for the last 10-15 years, they were very overpriced. After the housing bubble broke, those homes were purchased way over the current value. Not many folks are going to sell their homes "under value". Thus the only Inventory that will remain are those that (1) have to move due to life changes (2) those that are 'underwater' in payments (3) and the banks that already foreclosed on the homes.

    So by the natural progression, based on the above, we would begin to have less and less inventory.

    That's just my thoughts as I am in the market to purchase our Retirement and that seems to be what we are seeing. We made a very reasonable offer on one home, the seller could not accept as it would leave them "less" than what they owe; even though, they are holding out for that "one buyer" that will pay for their home, even though it is not a reasonable asking price for their area/home.

    Again, just my thoughts....

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