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Who is going to buy all those houses in Calif when the Gen X/Yers retire?


By MMR   Follow   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 6:31am PST   3,419 views   49 comments
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California 'suffering unprecedented decline' in child population
California is in the midst of an unprecedented decline in its child population. Falling birth rates, a decrease in migration and the retirement of the 'baby boom' generation are threatening the future prosperity of America's most populous state, a new report has revealed.

By 2030, children will make up 1/5 of population, while in 1970, they made up 1/3

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9791411/California-suffering-unprecedented-decline-in-child-population.html

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C Boy   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 10:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 10

Call it Crazy says

Ceffer says

A lot of the boomers won't be able to retire. I know guys who plan on going until at least 72.

Reverting back to pre WWII, when people just worked until they were too sick to continue to do so, retirement by modern standards was uncommon.

Work til you drop and devil take the hindmost.

Yup, and instead of a pension plan, you will get a nice pine box to get buried in!!

And they will probably be buried in the back yard.

Goran_K   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 11:25pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)     Comment 11

zzyzzx says

Gen X/Yers won't be able to retire. Ever. Too poor.

If boomers (who had every opportunity to save for retirement) aren't retiring until way after their 70s, then I suspect this to be true as well.

mdovell   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 11:34pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

The population is still growing but the rate is now quite low. In some areas of the country it is simply just moving around rather than new people moving in.

A simple solution could be to just retain those that attend higher education or employment here.

A decade ago I knew a man from Japan majoring in IT and even though he had been in the country eight years and the demand was there there were no attempts to offer any form of incentives to have him stay.

I can tell you being in the Boston metro area that if all students stayed after graduation we would have a much higher population. Ample amounts of international students simply leave to their home countries. Intelligence squared made the argument that ph.d international students upon graduating should automatically get a green card.

CaptainShuddup   Wed, 9 Jan 2013, 11:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (2)     Comment 13

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation. Not until further notice.

New Renter   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 2:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 14

mdovell says

The population is still growing but the rate is now quite low. In some areas of the country it is simply just moving around rather than new people moving in.

A simple solution could be to just retain those that attend higher education or employment here.

A decade ago I knew a man from Japan majoring in IT and even though he had been in the country eight years and the demand was there there were no attempts to offer any form of incentives to have him stay.

I can tell you being in the Boston metro area that if all students stayed after graduation we would have a much higher population. Ample amounts of international students simply leave to their home countries. Intelligence squared made the argument that ph.d international students upon graduating should automatically get a green card.

There are not enough good jobs for the native Ph.D.s This is just more bullshit to drive wages down even further.

BoomAndBustCycle   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 3:25am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 15

Goran_K says

If boomers (who had every opportunity to save for retirement) aren't retiring until way after their 70s, then I suspect this to be true as well.

There are a select few boomers who will have the option to hold off retiring until their 70s. The job market is cruel and will kick you to the street for a younger, healthier 20 something who will work for less.

And there are only so many openings as Wal-Mart for greeters.

More likely, Boomers will have to cut back dramatically.. and those dreams of traveling the world in their golden years will be replaced with eating cat food at home.

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 3:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation. Not until further notice.

As one of those Gen X/Y'ers I completely agree. It's going to take a small miracle to save for a hearty down (while renting) and then find a starter home in a decent area that isn't going to be gobbled up by cash investors overnight.

I don't know if that's whining, but at times it certainly feels like everyone was playing musical chairs for the last decade and I've suddenly found myself without a seat.

gbenson   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 3:43am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

CMY says

it certainly feels like everyone was playing musical chairs for the last decade and I've suddenly found myself without a seat.

No problem, I'll let you rent my seat for as long as you need it :'P

Zakrajshek   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 5:16am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

Cash investers? I doubt many people have even $10,000 in cash, much less 300 or 400,000 to buy an overpriced rental house?
The whole system that now encourages investors to buy and keep houses in impacted areas such as the bay area should be reversed 180 degrees. Pass laws that discourage this behavior and make it very expensive for investors to participate in these real estate markets. Only then will the sharks will stay out and leave the houses to people who live and work there.

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 5:46am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

Zakrajshek says

Cash investers? I doubt many people have even $10,000 in cash, much less 300 or 400,000 to buy an overpriced rental house?

You'd be surprised. I'm also not talking about a 300-400k place, I'm talking 200-300k, something that grandma left to the kids (and needs a lot of work).

Here's a great example: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Torrance/1104-Amapola-Ave-90501/home/7650922 (check out the sales history!)

It's no joke. I follow the listings/sales around this area pretty religiously. MANY have been closing escrow in a week.

My point is that at 280k the above place is perfect for us. Hastily remodeled and back on the market (six weeks later) at 499k? I'll pass.. but some sucker just had to have it.

David9   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 5:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 20

There is 9.8 Million people in Los Angeles County.

Certainly some competition for homes.

In my opinion, time to face the truth, we were all hoping for '10 cents on the dollar' California homes so we could buy and sell later. Well, didn't happen.

Time to figure out the next move.

edvard2   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 5:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 21

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation.

Look up what the term Gen X and Y means. Gen X is from the early 60's through mid 70's. Gen Y is from the late 70's-80's.

Guess I disproved that assertion: I am a very very early Gen Y'er and bought a house this summer.

As far as Boomers, well the average boomer has saved less than $40k for retirement. A lot of them will never be able to retire. And as far as who will buy California homes? Well there's also a TON of people from other states who move here as well. Its not like the state is going to become abandoned. Where would you rather live: the rust belt or Cali?

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 6:01am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

David9 says

In my opinion, time to face the truth, we were all hoping for '10 cents on the dollar' California homes so we could buy and sell later. Well, didn't happen.

I totally agree, just speaking about my observations from a generational standpoint. The affordable single-family starter home is going extinct.

David9   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 6:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 23

CMY says

The affordable single-family starter home is going extinct.

In Redondo Beach it certainly is. Check out other California Cities that would be acceptable to you, even in California you will find lower home prices than Redondo Beach.

From my generation standpoint, California has been and continues to be a good home to me for most of my adult life. If you are young, maybe South Florida or other places would work for you, check out Trulia.com, many areas much less expensive than California.

C Boy   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 6:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

edvard2 says

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation.

Look up what the term Gen X and Y means. Gen X is from the early 60's through mid 70's. Gen Y is from the late 70's-80's.

Guess I disproved that assertion: I am a very very early Gen Y'er and bought a house this summer.

As far as Boomers, well the average boomer has saved less than $40k for retirement. A lot of them will never be able to retire. And as far as who will buy California homes? Well there's also a TON of people from other states who move here as well. Its not like the state is going to become abandoned. Where would you rather live: the rust belt or Cali?

Rustbelt.

edvard2   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 6:34am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

C Boy says

Rustbelt.

Explain why.

C Boy   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 6:56am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

Cheaper. Less people. Less pollution. No earth quakes. No traffic jams on Saturday afternoon.

California is not the center of the universe.

My uncle lives close to here in Michigan:

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 7:05am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

David9 says

In Redondo Beach it certainly is. Check out other California Cities that would be acceptable to you, even in California you will find lower home prices than Redondo Beach.

Yes, I realize that the area is substantially higher than the norm. As a native of SoCal I also know where the affordable homes are (and the traffic that comes with them!)

My plan B includes one of several paid-off rental homes my family owns out here, so moving doesn't make much sense. Just would've been nice to do it without the discount/help, but this route certainly has it's advantages as well.

David9   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 7:10am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

CMY says

so moving doesn't make much sense.

No, it wouldn't make much sense at all. Don't know all the details on a blog! Looks like you got it covered then.

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 7:12am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 29

C Boy says

My uncle lives close to here in Michigan:

Your photos forgot the most important part of living there- Winter!

Beautiful state, but there's no way I'd ever be able to make it through that.

David9   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 7:26am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

CMY says

there's no way I'd ever be able to make it through that

I wasn't born here, but that's also true for people who have been here a long time. Working contracts in other States for awhile made me appreciate California more.

edvard2   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 7:59am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

C Boy says

Cheaper. Less people. Less pollution. No earth quakes. No traffic jams on Saturday afternoon.

California is not the center of the universe.

My uncle lives close to here in Michigan:

Oh yeah- don't forget long, frigid winters and hot, humid summers.
PS: I lived in the Northeast and the South before here. No comparison.

B.A.C.A.H.   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 8:40am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 32

Zakrajshek says

Pass laws that discourage this behavior and make it very expensive for investors to participate in these real estate markets.

It is only a matter of time before Prop-13 will be revised like that. But I don't think it matters for what you say. The Bay Area real estate is becoming dominated by wealthy immigrants who have a different way of looking at things than we local yokels.

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 9:05am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

B.A.C.A.H. says

becoming dominated by wealthy immigrants

Also pertinent to my area. Many agents are looking for bilingual assistants as move-in ready homes in the 1-3M range are being swallowed up by the Chinese in record amounts.

varmint   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 9:23am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 34

edvard2 says

Well there's also a TON of people from other states who move here as well.

More people leave California for other states than relocate here from them.

Ceffer   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 9:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 35

Problem is, none of the trend lines in California are positive. The state has gotten used to abusing and exploiting its residents and businesses because for every person who left, two or three stacked up to take their place.

If you put "weather" in one column and put all of the negative trend lines in the other, looking at a future of at least 15 percent sales taxes, gasoline at $8 per gallon, property tax at 1.5 percent without prop 13, not to mention the horrific fiscal crisis that will take place with the expensive railway system boondogles, productive businesses and people bailing out, how long before that "weather" column isn't looking so good any more? The gov, the welfares, the prisoners and the rich staring at each other over the smoking crater that was once CA's economy?

I almost thought when my local grocery store started charging for the bags and not providing them, "this is the straw that broke the camel's back?"

Patrick   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 10:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 36

edvard2 says

C Boy says

Cheaper. Less people. Less pollution. No earth quakes. No traffic jams on Saturday afternoon.

California is not the center of the universe.

My uncle lives close to here in Michigan:

Oh yeah- don't forget long, frigid winters and hot, humid summers.

PS: I lived in the Northeast and the South before here. No comparison.

I lived in Michigan from the ages of 9 to college, and bit after. You should also mention the mosquitos.

Michigan is kind of scenic in places, like those pictures, but the California coast is just drop-dead gorgeous. Though I guess the Oregon and WA coasts are similarly beautiful and have few mosquitoes.

just_passing_through   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 10:26am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation. Not until further notice.

Hey!? I resemble that remark!

CMY   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 10:32am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

Patrick says

Michigan is kind of scenic in places

My fiancee's family has a great plot of land right on Torch Lake, near Traverse City. Absolutely fell in love with the area, just wish her Aunt would get her head out of her arse so that we could go back every year (family squabble).

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 11:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 39

Gay gold-shitting Chindian aliens from outer space.

carrieon   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 11:21am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

I sense an upcoming migration pattern to the Midwest in the years ahead, for multiple reasons I don't want to get into here. Just know it's going to happen.
Keep that under your hat.

C Boy   Thu, 10 Jan 2013, 11:25am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 41

edvard2 says

C Boy says

Cheaper. Less people. Less pollution. No earth quakes. No traffic jams on Saturday afternoon.

California is not the center of the universe.

My uncle lives close to here in Michigan:

Oh yeah- don't forget long, frigid winters and hot, humid summers.

PS: I lived in the Northeast and the South before here. No comparison.

Gives one character.

Robber Baron Elite Scum   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 9:12am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 42

"Who is going to buy all those houses in Calif when the Gen X/Yers retire?"

I will buy the entire state of california and turn it into a feudal caste system compromised of mostly peasants and me as the member of the elite banking aristocracy scum.

Nobody   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 10:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 43

This is a dumb question. We have plenty of investors from China. Notice we don't see ducks in our parks?

Robber Baron Elite Scum   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 10:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 44

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Gay gold-shitting Chindian aliens from outer space.

New Renter   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 12:36pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

Nobody says

This is a dumb question. We have plenty of investors from China. Notice we don't see ducks in our parks?

Somebody better tell Iwog!

JodyChunder   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 3:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

Patrick says

Michigan is kind of scenic in places, like those pictures, but the California coast is just drop-dead gorgeous. Though I guess the Oregon and WA coasts are similarly beautiful and have few mosquitoes.

Yes sir, Michigan is truly beautiful in spots, especially the upper peninsula. I passed through Kalamazoo a few years ago and thought it would be a nice little town to settle down in. The Mid West is home to some of the finest examples of 20th century architecture in the country, too, if you're concerned with that kind of thing.

I also agree about the Oregon coastline. Shockingly beautiful.

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 4:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 47

Ceffer says

If you put "weather" in one column and put all of the negative trend lines in the other, looking at a future of at least 15 percent sales taxes, gasoline at $8 per gallon, property tax at 1.5 percent without prop 13, not to mention the horrific fiscal crisis that will take place with the expensive railway system boondogles, productive businesses and people bailing out, how long before that "weather" column isn't looking so good any more? The gov, the welfares, the prisoners and the rich staring at each other over the smoking crater that was once CA's economy?

at one time we had both weather, productive business and economy, and a sane public.
but your right on spot here.. its the weather and big welfare state of CA which will be left.

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 4:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 48

Nobody says

This is a dumb question. We have plenty of investors from China. Notice we don't see ducks in our parks?

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Gay gold-shitting Chindian aliens from outer space.

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 11 Jan 2013, 4:53pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

edvard2 says

As far as Boomers, well the average boomer has saved less than $40k for retirement. A lot of them will never be able to retire. And as far as who will buy California homes? Well there's also a TON of people from other states who move here as well. Its not like the state is going to become abandoned. Where would you rather live: the rust belt or Cali?

You should ask the many many native Californians who have moved out to the South ... and some who are contemplating it today ... many are disgusted with the crap they see today.

This California isn't the California many natives grew up in... its Different but for some who came here from elsewhere dont get it yet...

California Dreaming is long long gone... fact is we were more like the South in decades past than what many would see today.

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